mid-Ohio United States Member #9 March 24, 2001 19825 Posts Offline

Posted: October 18, 2014, 5:35 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on October 18, 2014

The odds of winning the top prize are 1 in about 72 million. Powerball odds are one in about 175 million and Mega Millions is about 1 in 258 million, Hargrove said.

The odds of winning the top prize per dollar spent aren't really that much different.

Odds of winning top prize at 1/72M for $5 = odds of 1/360M per dollar spent Odds of winning top prize at 1/175M for $2 = odds of 1/350M per dollar spent Odds of winning top prize at 1/258M for $1 = odds of 1/258M per dollar spent

I'm guessing Hargrove figures players don't mind spending more as long as they are getting less.

* you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket *

D.C./MD. United States Member #44103 July 30, 2006 5583 Posts Offline

Posted: October 18, 2014, 6:27 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on October 18, 2014

Odds of winning top prize at 1/72M for $5 = odds of 1/360M per dollar spent Odds of winning top prize at 1/175M for $2 = odds of 1/350M per dollar spent Odds of winning top prize at 1/258M for $1 = odds of 1/258M per dollar spent

I'm guessing Hargrove figures players don't mind spending more as long as they are getting less.

I don't think I want to debate whatever, but you have to spend $5 to get a ticket for Monopoly you can't buy a $1 dollar Monopoly ticket so the point is moot per dollar spent. To buy a Mega ticket you need only $1, you can buy 5 Megas for $5 and it gives you better odds if you were going to spend $5 on Monopoly for one ticket. You get a 75% better chance roughly per $5 spent on mega. (no calculator).

Happyland United States Member #146344 September 1, 2013 1129 Posts Offline

Posted: October 18, 2014, 7:02 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by jarasan on October 18, 2014

I don't think I want to debate whatever, but you have to spend $5 to get a ticket for Monopoly you can't buy a $1 dollar Monopoly ticket so the point is moot per dollar spent. To buy a Mega ticket you need only $1, you can buy 5 Megas for $5 and it gives you better odds if you were going to spend $5 on Monopoly for one ticket. You get a 75% better chance roughly per $5 spent on mega. (no calculator).

Comparing by odds is not a very good comparison. It doesn't do you much good to have a 75% chance of winning if you only win 1 dollar. Instead, you should divide the prizes by cost and compare the probability-weighted payoffs (EV). People think EV is useless but mathematically speaking it is the most accurate comparison.

With that being said, the new game really IS awful for the cost, but if the Millionaires' Club prizes get into the hundreds then the game will be a far better bet than many state games. For instances, with 200 prizes, the odds per dollar for winning $1 million would be better than any Cash 5 in the country. That doesn't even factor in the other prizes. As I said, it's not really an objective comparison to just look at the odds or the cost or the prizes...you have to look at everything together.

Tis the reason I don't care about the cost of a ticket on the face and tend to only buy $20 or higher games. Their payback percentages are significantly higher, which means in the long run I will fare better than buying $1 and $2 games.

If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does. If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

Kentucky United States Member #32652 February 14, 2006 7302 Posts Offline

Posted: October 18, 2014, 8:45 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by jarasan on October 18, 2014

I don't think I want to debate whatever, but you have to spend $5 to get a ticket for Monopoly you can't buy a $1 dollar Monopoly ticket so the point is moot per dollar spent. To buy a Mega ticket you need only $1, you can buy 5 Megas for $5 and it gives you better odds if you were going to spend $5 on Monopoly for one ticket. You get a 75% better chance roughly per $5 spent on mega. (no calculator).

IMO, the difference is the extra millionaire drawings making this game more of a player preference than which game has the better odds. Do you think when the more populated states win more $1 million prizes someone on LP will say they are cheating?

D.C./MD. United States Member #44103 July 30, 2006 5583 Posts Offline

Posted: October 18, 2014, 9:08 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Stack47 on October 18, 2014

IMO, the difference is the extra millionaire drawings making this game more of a player preference than which game has the better odds. Do you think when the more populated states win more $1 million prizes someone on LP will say they are cheating?

Million dollar prizes after the irs, state, and local taxes are left with $660,000 for most of us....... minus any unpaid child support, back taxes, tickets, etc...for others. You have to wait 2 weeks for that money. Is it ball dropped????????? Or computerized?????

NY United States Member #23835 October 16, 2005 3474 Posts Offline

Posted: October 18, 2014, 9:15 pm - IP Logged

"you can't buy a $1 dollar Monopoly ticket so the point is moot per dollar spent."

So compare the odds if you're going to spend $5. For $5:

You could have a 1 in 87.5 million chance of winning tonight's $100 million PB jackpot, and either have a dollar left over or get powerplay on one of the two games you've played

You could have a 1 in 51.6 million chance of winning the current $200 million MM jackpot

You could have a 1 in 72 million chance of winning no more than $25 million.

"the extra millionaire drawings making this game more of a player preference than which game has the better odds."

Sure, if your preference is to just play a game without paying any attention at all to the odds. If you do pay attention, what are the odds of winning that $1 million? On average, if they sell 24 million tickets there's a 1 in 3 chance of a jackpot winner. If they pick 12 tickets for the $1 million prize that's 1 in 2 million. That gives you a 1 in 6 million chance of winning $1 million. With a $5 ticket. Spending that $5 on MM will get you a 1 in 3.7 million chance of winning $1 million. $5 for a pair of PB tickets with powerplay on one of them will give you a 1 in 1.03 million chance of winning $1 or $2 million.

D.C./MD. United States Member #44103 July 30, 2006 5583 Posts Offline

Posted: October 18, 2014, 9:20 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by KY Floyd on October 18, 2014

"you can't buy a $1 dollar Monopoly ticket so the point is moot per dollar spent."

So compare the odds if you're going to spend $5. For $5:

You could have a 1 in 87.5 million chance of winning tonight's $100 million PB jackpot, and either have a dollar left over or get powerplay on one of the two games you've played

You could have a 1 in 51.6 million chance of winning the current $200 million MM jackpot

You could have a 1 in 72 million chance of winning no more than $25 million.

"the extra millionaire drawings making this game more of a player preference than which game has the better odds."

Sure, if your preference is to just play a game without paying any attention at all to the odds. If you do pay attention, what are the odds of winning that $1 million? On average, if they sell 24 million tickets there's a 1 in 3 chance of a jackpot winner. If they pick 12 tickets for the $1 million prize that's 1 in 2 million. That gives you a 1 in 6 million chance of winning $1 million. With a $5 ticket. Spending that $5 on MM will get you a 1 in 3.7 million chance of winning $1 million. $5 for a pair of PB tickets with powerplay on one of them will give you a 1 in 1.03 million chance of winning $1 or $2 million.

Happyland United States Member #146344 September 1, 2013 1129 Posts Offline

Posted: October 18, 2014, 10:14 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by KY Floyd on October 18, 2014

"you can't buy a $1 dollar Monopoly ticket so the point is moot per dollar spent."

So compare the odds if you're going to spend $5. For $5:

You could have a 1 in 87.5 million chance of winning tonight's $100 million PB jackpot, and either have a dollar left over or get powerplay on one of the two games you've played

You could have a 1 in 51.6 million chance of winning the current $200 million MM jackpot

You could have a 1 in 72 million chance of winning no more than $25 million.

"the extra millionaire drawings making this game more of a player preference than which game has the better odds."

Sure, if your preference is to just play a game without paying any attention at all to the odds. If you do pay attention, what are the odds of winning that $1 million? On average, if they sell 24 million tickets there's a 1 in 3 chance of a jackpot winner. If they pick 12 tickets for the $1 million prize that's 1 in 2 million. That gives you a 1 in 6 million chance of winning $1 million. With a $5 ticket. Spending that $5 on MM will get you a 1 in 3.7 million chance of winning $1 million. $5 for a pair of PB tickets with powerplay on one of them will give you a 1 in 1.03 million chance of winning $1 or $2 million.

Your estimate of tickets sold to $1 million prizes available is highly underestimated. If they sold 24 million tickets the number of Club prizes would be greater than 10 or 12 (closer to 23-24). Right now they're projecting less than 5 million tickets sold for each of the first 10 drawings.

I think your odds on the PB prize are off.....if the odds for one are 1 in 5,153,633 then a pair of tickets would be about 1 in 2,576,817. Or did you count the ability to win $2 million as two tickets?

Comparing specifically the $1 million prize, the draw which reaches about 110-111 MMC prizes (consequently MUSL's simulated hit average) would give odds better than Mega Millions and the one with about 150 prizes would give odds better than Powerball. So between 15 and 18 draws of waiting. This is based on their own sales projections of course. Beyond that we get into the realm where rare draws of many many prizes occur and the odds could be quite good for the money.

I don't know the odds of getting on the game show and then winning the $1 million there but that should be considered as well.

If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does. If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

United States Member #3676 February 10, 2004 425 Posts Offline

Posted: October 19, 2014, 12:48 am - IP Logged

This lottery is a bit of a step in the right direction with the payback percentage increasing to 60%. It plays more like a scratch off. Remember though that on a per dollar basis this jackpot is HARDER to hit vs mega or powerball as the odds are over 70 million to one. Which makes per dollar odds of 350+ million to one. The proper way to play this game is to quite frankly save your bullets for when it hits 25 million as you want to maximize your chance of coming home with a million. Instead of playing ten per week or hundred per week save it for 40 at end of month or 400 at end of month. Sadly Illinois will not be offering this but once it gets to 25 million it will be worth a drive to Indiana to put 100 on it.

United States Member #108380 March 25, 2011 505 Posts Offline

Posted: October 19, 2014, 8:58 am - IP Logged

don't think people on here are all that excited about winning only a million dollars maximum for playing a 5.00 ticket. they will accept winning 1 million as the 2nd tier prize in the other big games but this one will struggle after the novelty wears off as 5.00 a line is just too much. also not a lot of interest in flying to vegas to sit in a studio audience for a remote chance to win more. people just don't want to do that. have you tried to fly lately. surly, untrained security forcing you to undress, taking your temperature for ebola, and if someone throws up on a plane you are forced to deal with it until inexperienced glams in haz-mat suits board the plane to clean it up. so that part of the prize isn't that appealing. also that lucky for life game (2.00) isn't selling all that well either. so don't wish for that one to be available in your state as players are too old to reap a lot of cash from that one. they've ruined PB and MEGA by increasing the amount of numbers in the matrix deeming it nearly impossible to hit. i've noticed the bloom is off the rose for excitement regarding the growing jackpots for those once extremely popular games. still probably your best bargain to at least get a 2nd tier million prize. they are over-saturating the market for these lottery games (ridiculous amount of scratch off tickets available everywhere, including a kings ransom 30.00 ticket in this state) now, they want to drain all your cash from your pocket and want to force you to buy overpriced health insurance. how much money do they think less affluent people have?

United States Member #71120 February 19, 2009 1209 Posts Offline

Posted: October 19, 2014, 10:50 am - IP Logged

Good post faber,Im going to Georgia Saturday ,it's the only way I find to any luck in my life.I look forward to my husband saying,ready to take a trip,I know what he means,I start screaming ,when when....he is off work this coming weekend,I cant wait...you talk about the excitment we have.I love Georgia scratch offs.

New Jersey United States Member #1 May 31, 2000 23261 Posts Offline

Posted: October 19, 2014, 12:03 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by KY Floyd on October 18, 2014

"you can't buy a $1 dollar Monopoly ticket so the point is moot per dollar spent."

So compare the odds if you're going to spend $5. For $5:

You could have a 1 in 87.5 million chance of winning tonight's $100 million PB jackpot, and either have a dollar left over or get powerplay on one of the two games you've played

You could have a 1 in 51.6 million chance of winning the current $200 million MM jackpot

You could have a 1 in 72 million chance of winning no more than $25 million.

"the extra millionaire drawings making this game more of a player preference than which game has the better odds."

Sure, if your preference is to just play a game without paying any attention at all to the odds. If you do pay attention, what are the odds of winning that $1 million? On average, if they sell 24 million tickets there's a 1 in 3 chance of a jackpot winner. If they pick 12 tickets for the $1 million prize that's 1 in 2 million. That gives you a 1 in 6 million chance of winning $1 million. With a $5 ticket. Spending that $5 on MM will get you a 1 in 3.7 million chance of winning $1 million. $5 for a pair of PB tickets with powerplay on one of them will give you a 1 in 1.03 million chance of winning $1 or $2 million.

If all you are looking at is the top prize, then this is valid. However, this game is not designed to just have an over-the-top jackpot. It is in response to a ton of people saying they want a game in which MANY people win SMALLER prizes.

I know this personally because I get e-mails just about every day from people saying they want such a game. During big Powerball or Mega Millions jackpot runs I can sometimes receive a dozen e-mails a day from people complaining about the big jackpot going to just one winner.

To these people I say don't play Mega Millions or Powerball then. Play a game that delivers smaller prizes more often.

AND THAT'S WHAT THIS GAME IS.

This game should not even be compared to Mega Millions or Powerball. It is completely different. The only similarity is that all three games are played in many states. Apart from that, they are really different. It is a new style of game with several ways to play and win. So I think it's going to need to time in the market before people can judge it "good" or "bad".

New Jersey United States Member #80354 September 25, 2009 705 Posts Offline

Posted: October 19, 2014, 1:32 pm - IP Logged

Info from the betting slip:

Match 5 of 5 and property number,Top Prize based on a pari-mutuel basis, odds 1: 72,770,880

Match 5 of 5, prize of $100,00 odds 1: 2,695,218.

Match 4 of 5 + property number, prize of $20,00, odds 1:309,663

Match 4 0f 5, prize $500, odds 1: 11,469

Match 3 of 5 and property number, prize $250.00, odds 1: 6,732

Match 2 of 5 and property number, prize $25.00 ,odds 1:449

Match 3 of 5, prize $20.00, odds 1:249

Match 1 of 5 and property number, prize $10.00, odds 1: 82

Match property number,prize $7.00, odds 1:47

Match 2 of 5, prize $5.00, odds 1:17

Match Millionaires' Club number ( only applicable if Top Prize is Won) prize $1,000,000, odds varies with sales

"The overall Odds of winning are 1:10.0025 rounded to whole numbers

We get to select 5 numbers from 1-52 or quick pick. Your Property name and number will be automatically generated from 1-28.

Each ticket includes:

Your draw numbers and property name and number

Your Millionaire's Club number

Your Entry Webcode for a chance to be a contestant on the TV show"

You have the option to select an Annuity or Lump Sum Cash. The annuity option can be changed to a lump sum cash option but an lump sum option cannot be changed to an annuity. A choice of neither option will be deemed a choice for the Annuity Option."