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Would you know a good bet if U-C-1

Topic closed. 43 replies. Last post 12 years ago by Badger.

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WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
Stone Mountain*Georgia
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November 2, 2002
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Posted: February 12, 2005, 5:36 pm - IP Logged

    In the Pick-3  


    Would you recognize a really good bet ......even if you saw one?


 


Think about it. Should you?  

 

 

The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                              Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                              Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                       Win d    

    Badger's avatar - adu50016 NorthAmericanBadger.jpg
    Wisconsin
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    Posted: February 12, 2005, 5:46 pm - IP Logged

    That depends on the definition of "good bet".

    The definition is relative.

    ============

    How can you tell if a politician is lying?

    Answer: His lips are moving.

      JAP69's avatar - alas
      South Carolina
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      Posted: February 12, 2005, 6:02 pm - IP Logged
      Quote: Originally posted by WIN D on February 12, 2005



          In the Pick-3  


          Would you recognize a really good bet ......even if you saw one?


       


      Think about it. Should you?  




      I played a large list last night for the eve draw. Had the 806 straight in it that hit mid-day today.
      Did I play the eve list on todays mid. NOOOOOOO.
      Right in front of me and did not recognize it.
      Gone back to combined draws mid and eve.
      Mid and eve separate is bad.

      MAGA

        WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
        Stone Mountain*Georgia
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        Posted: February 12, 2005, 6:02 pm - IP Logged

                         One that wins more times than it loses. 

         

            P.S.  OH......Noooooo              John...... " Et tu Brute" ?

         

         

        The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                      Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                      Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                               Win d    

          Badger's avatar - adu50016 NorthAmericanBadger.jpg
          Wisconsin
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          Posted: February 12, 2005, 7:40 pm - IP Logged
          Quote: Originally posted by WIN D on February 12, 2005



                           One that wins more times than it loses. 

           

              P.S.  OH......Noooooo              John...... " Et tu Brute" ?





          Hmmm...okay then. If it wins 51 times out of a 100, then that would fit your definition. While I may play that bet, I don't know that I would personally define it as a "good bet".  To me, a "good bet" is one that would win 7 of 10 times or so. 

          WHat I'm saying is that the definition of "good bet" is relative to one's perception. What is a good bet to one person is not to another person. The definition also depens upon other factos (IMHO) -- for instance, you have a method in Pick 3 that hits 51 times out of a hundred, but it requires playing 40 combinations. One would have to seriously look at how much the risk is of losing the first 10 times you play it, versus what you may gain in winning if it hits the eldventh try.  After all, all methods are based upon "average" times it hits a winner. ANd the problem with statistics is averages. People tend to overlook the fact that while, yes, it will "average out", in the meantime you may get caught in a "longest out" spell where the method doesn't hit for a lot of draws before it lands. If all you're doing is "playing", then okay. But if you are looking at keeping "in the black" rather than "in the red", one must always take a look first...or perhaps create a betting style to try and accomodate the "long droughts" that are virtually inevitable in any method. I leanred this early on trying to play "longest out sums" in Pick 3.  Yeah, sure, the longest out sum is "due" and it will hit.....but it could go a month or more before it does. ANd then if you do hit a winner, you have won "nothing" because all your winnings were already eaten-up in the previous bets.

          Probably too long winded a response. But I'm still answering the original question, which requires anindividual  perception of what a "good bet" is.... like at the moment, me, personally, nothing is hitting or working. So tomorrow I'm spending a whole $2.50 on the DC mid day 60X wheeled straight, only because the 60 pair in the 1 and 2 postion has been out the longest. If it comes in, I'll faint. But considering all the stuff that isn't working, I'll still have something to look at in terms of the results. IOW, it gives me a "play" for tomorrow, and it has -- so it seems -- as much chance of hitting as anything else lately.  Would I call this a "good bet"? HAH ! Not hardly ! Still...60X has to come in someday.

          ============

          How can you tell if a politician is lying?

          Answer: His lips are moving.


            United States
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            Posted: February 12, 2005, 8:50 pm - IP Logged

            Hey there Win_D,

            a good bet recognizer for me anyway, is going into any gambling situation with the full knowledge of that game; how it operates; who's running the show and do I have enough capital to cover my bets. This last is not a problem in lottery plays because your money is paid upfront or thou shalt not play! Yes, I get blindsided every now and then but at least I went into the game armed with a lot of knowledge and what I had hoped would be edges on a particular game like the Pick3.

            Teufellj...

              WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
              Stone Mountain*Georgia
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              Posted: February 13, 2005, 7:06 am - IP Logged

               Thanks Teufellj .... Liked that when you talked about being armed with lots of knowledge. Speaking of knowledge....where are the responses on this question? The more you know the more you can cut the odds.....if you stick to your strategy. 

               What I was hoping for here were ....some good plays or some good stats to help us win. Unfortunetly.... i don't think most people know a good bet if they were to see one.  They could be LUCKY....stumble into a great play......and not even know it ! 

               Example: 

                  1.  Always play at least one digit to come back from the draw before.

                  2. Look for a2 digit repeat ....average every 9 or 10 draws.

                   3.  Break your draw history into 9 draw groups. You will average either an all odd or all even/odd 6 way hit in each 9 section group. If you skip a hit.... you will probably get 2 or more hits in the next section.

                  4. When and if any 50/50 group of numbers goes 4 or 5 draws in a row.....always bet the other way on the next draw. You will be right most of the time... People say" the balls have no memory".... That may be true ..... but I have memory ....and MOST of the time the balls go the other way! The higher the stack of same group numbers you can find the better the bet!  Period.              High/Low  odd/even  etc.  

                  5. Find out the top records in your state and find situations where you can play as close to the top of that history as you dare. ...without going over the edge.       

                    Etc....Etc.....

                    If you don't have a dream.... how can you have a dream come true? If ya don't know what your looking for ....how will ya know when you find it?  

                   

               

               

              The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                            Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                            Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                                     Win d    

                takeitez's avatar - japheth
                Carters Lake, Ga.
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                Posted: February 13, 2005, 7:29 am - IP Logged

                Win_D,

                  A good bet requires a max return on a small investment. You must have 2 things going for you, patience and control of a money management system. There are 2 such plays in Lotto. When you see it you will know.

                ez 

                          No Pity!Guitar  Drum ........ in the long run........

                  WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
                  Stone Mountain*Georgia
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                  Posted: February 13, 2005, 7:37 am - IP Logged

                   Sure..... you say ...."when you see it" ... you will know. Well.....that wasn't always true for me....or you. We had to learn. What did we learn? Looking for people to give an example or examples of what they actually think a good bet is.  Trying to come up with an example .....and not being able to do it is a good thing to know about yourself. Mind farts ....LOL  It might even spark an idea about playing the game and playing it harder on certain occations.... 

                    If you want to win in the long run....you have to bet harder on those rare but good opportunities.  Otherwise ...your just marking time... to lose.

                   

                   

                  The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                                Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                                Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                                         Win d    

                    MADDOG10's avatar - smoke
                    Beautiful Florida
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                    Posted: February 13, 2005, 8:55 am - IP Logged
                    Quote: Originally posted by WIN D on February 13, 2005



                     Sure..... you say ...."when you see it" ... you will know. Well.....that wasn't always true for me....or you. We had to learn. What did we learn? Looking for people to give an example or examples of what they actually think a good bet is.  Trying to come up with an example .....and not being able to do it is a good thing to know about yourself. Mind farts ....LOL  It might even spark an idea about playing the game and playing it harder on certain occations.... 

                      If you want to win in the long run....you have to bet harder on those rare but good opportunities.  Otherwise ...your just marking time... to lose.




                     it's really an interesting question win_d. i tend to think everyones perception of " would you recognize it" is visioned differently. i would think in order to do so, it would have to be a rare opportunity. if you're seasoned enough, that idea of a "spark" and to play it  "harder" would be the route to take, once that  certain  situation is recognized...!  a good example i've seen is . lets say the  (117) comes out. i know i would play (115) & (116) within the next (10) draws. hence taking the digit (1) from (7)= 116, or taking 1+1 from (7)= 115. it seems to work out for me here in N.J. 

                                                                 

                                                                   "  When Injustice Becomes Law, Resistance Becomes Duty "

                      Badger's avatar - adu50016 NorthAmericanBadger.jpg
                      Wisconsin
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                      Posted: February 13, 2005, 11:33 am - IP Logged

                      I guess I'm still answering what a "good bet" is, WIN D.  For instance, we know doubles hit about 28-30% of the time. So if a double hits, you should be able to figure a no-match combo will hit the next day. However, as you and I both know, that percentage is an average; and you can get 2, 3, 4, 5 doubles in a row; maybe more.

                      Therefore while I would say you can play a no-match combo after the draw that a double drops on, it is still not what I personally would call a "good bet". When you are following statistics (which I agree are the only way to go to cut the odds...not necessarily to nail the winner, but to cut the odds, and cutting the odds is what its all about) the problem with statistics that can't be overcome, as I see it, is that stats are all based upon certain conditions "averaging out over time". There is no guarantee that what is supposed to happen will happen. And to me, while playing (again, for instance) a no-match combo after a double hits is a "better chance", it is not a "good bet". In fact, I have never found a "good bet" in Pick 3.  There are simply too many rotten "abnormalities"
                       that crop up all the time. That is why we all lose more draws than we win. A "good bet" to me would be a system that would enable me to win closer to half the time. And if there is some method out there like that, it is not likely one that is being revealed by the person(s) who know it.

                      ============

                      How can you tell if a politician is lying?

                      Answer: His lips are moving.

                        WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
                        Stone Mountain*Georgia
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                        Posted: February 13, 2005, 12:19 pm - IP Logged

                         I guess no one else knows what a good bet is either Badger. I already said what i believe is a good bet. It's one that wins most of the time. That could be 51% or 60% or 90% of the time.

                            Find any situation of 50/50...... and find it having hit that way 10 times in a row...oh boy!

                          Then..... bet it to go the other way. You will be right over 90% of the time.  You may only see it once a yr. in your State's game.... but that would be a great big opportunity to me. Put that with other current  info stats .....its even better.  

                         It will still be a GAMBLE..... when it stops being that way ...so will the game.  Until then ...anything that cuts the odds down nearer to  50% is a better bet ....more than that is a good bet.  (relative to Pick 3 anyway

                         In Vegas the worst odds are generally found in the Slot machines ......but guess what?  Slot machine odds are approx. 15 times better than Pick 3. Now that's crummy odds.  We really shouldn't play this stupid game you know.

                         

                         

                        The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                                      Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                                      Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                                               Win d    

                          JAP69's avatar - alas
                          South Carolina
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                          Posted: February 13, 2005, 12:51 pm - IP Logged

                          What I have been looking at in the past few weeks is the cycle of the numbers. the key numbers mainly.
                          I changed to combined draws yesterday and found the amount of stacks where they seem to return at. The pairs mainly.
                          Look at the stacks in the key numbers here.
                          I have started to fill the blank rows at the top of each key number.
                          I am looking for the obvious in each key number and the stack it is obvious in when it is time for that stack to be drawn and filled in at the top of the stack.
                          You will also find exact digits and exact pairs in each stack.
                          These are the actual past drawn numbers in the order of being drawn.

                          Key Numbers: South Carolina
                          0 23 29.1%

                          ___________806 306 490 540 640 097 790
                          ___________707 901 410 570 604 907 409
                          ___________460 069 089 108 703 103 490
                          ___________800 607

                          1 19 24.1%

                          ___________714 951 155 761 166 813 318
                          ___________451 901 410 391 173 188 916
                          ___________971 108 311 103 361

                          2 14 17.7%

                          ___________424 265 298 229 926 726 525
                          ___________332 726 274 826 826 239 247
                           
                          3 23 29.1%

                          ___________399 306 349 334 333 389 938
                          ___________387 813 318 733 332 391 733
                          ___________173 663 435 311 703 103 239
                          ___________361 843

                          4 24 30.4%

                          ___________714 424 490 349 540 946 334
                          ___________640 944 949 451 794 410 794
                          ___________469 684 604 409 460 274 435
                          ___________490 247 843
                           
                          5 12 15.2%                                             885
                          ___________596 856 951 540 265 965 155
                          ___________451 525 570 435 759

                          6 27 34.2%   

                          ___________806 596 306 856 689 946 265
                          ___________786 640 689 965 761 166 926
                          ___________726 663 469 684 604 916 726
                          ___________460 069 826 826 361 607
                           
                          7 23 29.1%    714 786 761 387 733 097 790
                          ___________707 794 726 794 733 173 570
                          ___________726 907 274 971 703 247 607
                          ___________759 779

                          8 19 24.1%                                              885
                          ___________806 856 689 389 786 298 689
                          ___________938 387 813 318 188 684 826
                          ___________826 089 108 800 843

                          9 33 41.8%   

                          ___________399 596 490 349 951 689 946
                          ___________389 298 689 944 965 949 938
                          ___________229 097 790 926 794 901 391
                          ___________794 469 916 907 409 069 971
                          ___________089 239 490 759 779

                          Number Types:
                          Singles 60 75.9%                       
                          _________________806 596 306 714 490 349 856
                          _________________951 689 540 946 265 389 786
                          _________________298 640 689 965 938 761 387
                          _________________813 318 097 790 926 451 794
                          _________________726 901 410 391 794 173 469
                          _________________570 684 604 916 726 907 409
                          _________________460 274 435 069 971 826 826
                          _________________089 108 703 103 239 490 247
                          _________________361 607 843 759

                          Doubles 18 22.8%                                              885
                          _________________399 424 334 944 949 155 229
                          _________________166 733 707 525 332 733 663
                          _________________188 311 800 779

                          Triples 1 1.3% 333

                          MAGA

                            JAP69's avatar - alas
                            South Carolina
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                            Posted: February 13, 2005, 12:58 pm - IP Logged

                             

                            Now for better visual and interpetation of each digit and pairs in the stacks I placed them box order as drawn.
                            A little to obvious at times.

                             

                            Key Numbers:
                            0 23 29.1%
                            ___________068 036 049 045 046 079 079
                            ___________077 019 014 057 046 079 049
                            ___________046 069 089 018 037 013 049
                            ___________008 067

                            1 19 24.1%
                            ___________147 159 155 761 166 138 138
                            ___________145 019 014 139 137 188 169
                            ___________179 018 113 013 136

                            2 14 17.7%
                            ___________244 256 289 229 269 267 255
                            ___________233 267 247 268 268 239 247
                             
                            3 23 29.1%
                            ___________399 036 349 334 333 389 389
                            ___________378 138 138 337 233 139 337
                            ___________137 366 345 113 037 013 239
                            ___________136 348

                            4 24 30.4%
                            ___________147 244 049 349 045 469 334
                            ___________046 449 499 145 479 014 479
                            ___________469 468 046 049 046 247 345
                            ___________049 247 348

                            5 12 15.2%                                              588
                            ___________569 568 159 045 256 569 155
                            ___________145 255 057 345 579

                            6 27 34.2%
                            ___________068 569 036 568 689 469 256
                            ___________678 046 689 569 761 166 269
                            ___________267 366 469 468 046 169 267
                            ___________046 069 268 268 136 067

                            7 23 29.1%
                            ___________147 678 761 378 337 079 079
                            ___________077 479 267 479 337 137 057
                            ___________267 079 247 179 037 247 067
                            ___________579 779

                            8 19 24.1%                                              588
                            ___________068 568 689 389 678 289 689
                            ___________389 378 138 138 188 468 268
                            ___________268 089 018 008 348

                            9 33 41.8%
                            ___________399 569 049 349 159 689 469
                            ___________389 289 689 449 569 499 389
                            ___________229 079 079 269 479 019 139
                            ___________479 469 169 079 049 069 179
                            ___________089 239 049 579 779

                            Number Types:
                            Singles 60 75.9%
                            _________________068 569 036 147 049 349 568
                            _________________159 689 045 469 256 389 678
                            _________________289 046 689 569 938 761 378
                            _________________138 138 079 079 269 145 479
                            _________________267 019 014 139 479 137 469
                            _________________057 468 046 169 267 079 049
                            _________________046 247 345 069 179 268 268
                            _________________089 018 037 013 239 049 247
                            _________________136 067 348 579

                            Doubles 18 22.8%                                              588
                            _________________399 244 334 449 499 155 229
                            _________________166 337 077 255 233 337 366
                            _________________188 113 008 779

                            Triples 1 1.3% 333



                            MAGA

                              MADDOG10's avatar - smoke
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                              Posted: February 13, 2005, 1:06 pm - IP Logged

                               obvious or not john, excellent stats for comparison...!

                                                                           

                                                                             "  When Injustice Becomes Law, Resistance Becomes Duty "