A good bet is.... one with a higher than normal degree of certainty. Here is my hero talking about my idea of a good bet. Take any of the 50/50 odds situations within the Pick 3 game and group them together treating them as a single dvent ....with multiple steps demonstrates this. It demonstrates that the odds never change....but probability and DC does.
Written by Ion Saliu on October 26, 2002 (2 WE); revised January 25, 2003 (3 WE).
" FORMULA.EXE, version 7.0, January 2003 (3 WE).
This is the definitive and the ultimate probability, gambling and statistical software.
The program boasts 12 important formulae in theory of probability and statistics:
1) The Fundamental Formula of Gambling (FFG: N from p and DC)
2) Degree of Certainty (DC from p and N)
3) Probability of FFG median (p from DC and N)
4) The Binomial Distribution Formula (BDF: EXACTLY M successes in N trials)
5) The Probability of AT LEAST M successes in N trials
6) The Probability of AT MOST M successes in N trials
7) The Probability to WIN AT LEAST 'K of M in P from N' at Lotto & PowerBall
8) The Binomial Standard Deviation (BSD)
9) Normal Probability Rule (more precise than Gauss curve)
10) Calculate Lotto Odds, For '0 of k' to 'm of k'
11) Hypergeometric Distribution Applied to Lotto Odds
12) Shuffle Pools of Contiguous or Non-contiguous Numbers
I. The Fundamental Formula of Gambling (FFG: N from p and DC)
This function applies the Fundamental Formula of Gambling (FFG). It calculates the number of trials N necessary for an dvent of probability p to appear with the degree of certainty DC.
For example, how many coin tosses are necessary to get at least one 'heads' (p = 1/2) with a degree of certainty equal to 99%? Answer: 7 tosses.
II. The Degree of Certainty (DC from p and N)
This function calculates the degree of certainty DC necessary for the dvent of probability p to occur within N trials.
For example, what is the degree of certainty to get at least one 'heads' (p = 1/2) within 10 tosses? Answer: 99.902%.
III. The Probability of FFG Median (p from DC and N)
This function calculates the probability p when DC and N are known.
There are situations when you have the statistical median of a series N; therefore DC=50%; but you don't know the probability of the parameter p. The program calculates the probability p leading to a degree of certainty DC and a number of trials N.
For example, the winning reports created by LotWon software show a series of filters and their medians. If not calculated, you can use an editor such as QEdit and do a column blocking, then sort the column (filter) in descending order. The median represents the middle point of the sorted column. The median also represents the number of trials for a degree of certainty equal to 50%. I do not describe every filter in my software, so nobody can tell the probability of every filter. But you can determine it using this function of FORMULA.EXE. Other filters are described and thus their probabilities can be calculated in advance. They will prove the validity of the fundamental formula of gambling (FFG). For example, the probability of '3 of 6' in a 6/49 lotto is 1 in 57. FFG calculates the median for this situation (DC=50%) as 39. Take a real draw history, such as UK 6/49 lotto. Do the winning report for 500 past draws. Sort in descending order the filter "Threes" (or "3 #s") for layer 1. The median is 37 or closely around 39. Reciprocally, when you see a median equal to 37, you can determine the probability of the parameter as 1 in 54 (very close to the real case of 1 in 57).
Ion Saliu
- end of part 1 -
The only real failure .....is the failure to try.
Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much.
Odds never change .....but probability does.
Win d