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Are Secrets Really Worth Keeping?

Topic closed. 39 replies. Last post 11 years ago by emilyg.

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RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
mid-Ohio
United States
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Posted: June 13, 2005, 11:52 am - IP Logged

NameSys,

I read your post on recurrence analysis and all I saw was an idea to try and a link to get more information.  When you said you shared a secret I was thinking you had picked some winners using recurrence analysis and you shared how you did it.  I agree if you share an idea or system that you has never tried or used successfully then you've lost nothing.

RJOh

 * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
   
             Evil Looking       

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    Amarillo/Austin
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    Posted: June 13, 2005, 12:21 pm - IP Logged

    RJOh:

    In answer to your question.  It is possible to win more than 50% of the time using 40 or fewer numbers.  The trick is knowing how to pick key numbers, knowing what numbers to throw out and, most importantly, knowing when not to play. 

    Any student of Sun Tzu will tell you knowing when to avoid a fight as important as knowing how to win. 

    By the way, those who are selling books about winning the lottery know in their hearts they can make more selling their ideas than they can using them for their own profit.  If their ideas were so good, they would be using them themselves.  Not peddling them to others.

    Orangeman

     

      empassioned1's avatar - abns7
      Saint Louis, Missouri
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      Posted: June 13, 2005, 12:50 pm - IP Logged

      Wow,

      Thats at bit profound, and certainly calls anyone and everyone selling a lottery system on the mat so to speak.  I think once a "secret" gets out and becomes "public" knowledge- free for anyone to use and master-, the game changes to compensate. 

      I know Missouri claimed there was "no money" to produce a 5 minute show to allow three sets of balls to pop up or roll out of a hopper or whatever you call it, but consider this, now that they've gone to computer, it just seems tooooooo easy for them to adjust things if suddenly a paticular game is bleeding winners. 

      The only way to stop that is to cry foul as a state united and not play the game for a few days...the state will listen.  Of course there's too many people who want to "win big" and they're going to toss money away (like my father) no matter how suspect the system is getting.  I think the only secrets in Missouri are held by the Lottery and Gaming Commission.

       

      C.K.

      If the eyes are the windows to the soul, let me see you without the shades drawn

       

      What's a Hades Bunny?  Well let's just say you don't wanna be jumpin' over MY back fence.  But hey, you ain't afraid a lil white rabbit now are ya?

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        New Mexico
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        Posted: June 13, 2005, 1:03 pm - IP Logged

        SirMetro,

        If it's any consolation:

        All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident.
           
        Arthur Schopenhauer (1788 - 1860)

        JKING:

        Good quote.

        Jack

          Todd's avatar - Cylon 2.gif
          Chief Bottle Washer
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          Posted: June 13, 2005, 1:43 pm - IP Logged

          Pick 3 is winnable, but you have to resign yourself to the fact that it may take that $40 investment to win $80.  A 50% profit is not all that bad when you think about it.  Anyone wanting to win consistently  playing a couple of bucks a day is nickel/diming themselves into a ditch. 

          Orangeman                          Confused

           

          A $80 win on a $40 bet is actually a 100% profit!  A 50% profit would be a $60 win.

           

          Check the State Lottery Report Card
          What grade did your lottery earn?

           

          Sign the Petition for True Lottery Drawings
          Help eliminate computerized drawings!

            NemeSys's avatar - Nemesis
            Harrogate
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            Posted: June 14, 2005, 9:44 pm - IP Logged

            Hello RJOh,

            My point was that I think I'm the first person to apply RA to lottery numbers. Somebody out there might have done the same years before (RA was discovered about 20 years ago, so it's possible), but until they come forward with proof I'm going to stick by my claim to be the first. Here are a couple of examples that might prove salutory to hedgers:

            Isaac Newton and Gottfried Leibniz both developed integral and differential calculus independently of each other, but Newton was so paranoid he kept it secret for years - in the meantime Leibniz went ahead and published, forcing Newton to do the same. The friends of both men initiated an ugly argument over who deserved the credit, dragging them into it (prior to which Newton and Leibniz had been friends, corresponding regularly). The strain eventually proved too much for poor Leibniz who literally died of a broken heart.

            Over two hundred years Einstein published Relativity theory, but he had to learn the mathematics to make it work (a student friend taught him differential geometry). Half a dozen other mathematicians across Europe could have put the same thing together; Riemann, Minkowski, Poincare, to name three (Poincare actually gave a lecture on the possibility that gravity could curve space!). Einstein was lucky enough to put the right pieces together before anyone else.

            Moral: got an idea? Tell people before anyone else does!

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              Amarillo/Austin
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              Posted: June 14, 2005, 10:02 pm - IP Logged

              Todd:

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                Amarillo/Austin
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                Posted: June 14, 2005, 10:07 pm - IP Logged

                Todd:

                Never claimed I could do math.  My point is still more than valid.

                Orangeman  Wink

                 

                  Atomic Dog's avatar - sniffer
                  Minnesota
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                  Posted: June 17, 2005, 2:03 pm - IP Logged

                   

                   One day .......if you work your butt off and you stick with it long enough..... you can get the odds on pick 3 down to around 50.50.

                    Then it occurs to you........ " Hey this is a crap game with crappy odds". I could have gotten those odds almost anywhere long ago........and without all the work.   

                   The REAL big break on odds is a big secret alright. It's soooo secret that we dare not say it's name. If it weren't for the 55 diimes place we would still be trying to break the odds to 50//50

                   The simple truth is.........the biggest break through in history of Pick 3 in improving the player's odds and helping folks win more .......and much more often ....came from Costa Rica....... 

                   

                  Win D,

                  You wrote:

                  "The simple truth is.........the biggest break through in history of Pick 3 in improving the player's odds and helping folks win more .......and much more often ....came from Costa Rica....... "

                  Can you explain this statement?  I am a newbie and am curious as to what you are referring to in the statement above.  Please explain yourself fully.

                  Thanks,

                  Atomic Dog

                  BOW WOW WOW ......

                  ...... YIPPY YOH YIPPY YAY!!!

                    MathWizard's avatar - moon
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                    Posted: June 18, 2005, 3:54 am - IP Logged

                    Many years ago I was asked to help write software to assist lottery players in "selecting their numbers".  I was very careful not to make statements like "better chance of winning" or "improved odds" because mathematically speaking, it is impossible to change the probability of any particular event happening.

                    That said, it is not at all difficult to put together wheels and other systems that change the probability of a win and the pattern of what might be won, but ultimately, the expected amount won will always be the same.

                    For example: A simple 5 of 6 combo wheel looks like this:

                    A B C D E

                    A B C D F

                    A B C E F

                    A B D E F

                    A C D E F

                    B C D E F

                    You simply set A B C D E and F to the values of your 6 favorite numbers, and if any 5 of the 6 numbers occur in the draw, you are guaranteed to win a Match 5.  The cost is 6 times a single ticket, and the probability of matching is 6 times better than a regular ticket.  If you match 4 or 3 (and there are prizes for that) you will win multiple Match 4 and Match 3 prizes.

                    Sounds pretty good.

                    However, if you buy 6 Quick Picks, your overall expected likelihood of winning and the amount you will win, over time at least, will be exactly the same.  The actual prize amounts will vary slightly, but there is no difference to the expected total return over a long period of time.  In fact, even the variation between the expected value and what might happen in 99% of cases (a statistical confidence interval) will get smaller the more you play.  Ultimately, if the game pays 50% ... you will win 50%.

                    This is especially true of numbers games like Pick 3 or Pick 4, where the odds are not all that large, and a heavy player is expected to have a few top prize wins in a lifetime of play.  The more you play, the more likely you are to return 50% (or whatever the game is designed to payout ... some lottery games I have seen pay out as much as 65%, and I am sure there are some that are higher).

                    Every system I have ever seen (and I have seen a great many) has this same aspect when looked at purely from a mathematical perspective.

                    So, is there any way to improve the odds?

                    The only one I have ever been able to come up with is Jackpot Chasing, and there are two parts to it.  Of course, this will only work on games with rolling Jackpots, but it does not really matter if it is a small game with a Jackpot in the $10,000 range, or a big game like Powerball or Mega Millions.  If you want to improve your expected return, the only way this can be done (in my opinion) is as follows:

                    1. Don't make any wagers when the Jackpot value is low.

                    Look at the odds of winning the game.  If they are 100,000 to 1 and the Jackpot is $25,000, then you only expect to get 25% back from the Jackpot.  Assuming another 30% in lower tier prizes, the expected return for a wager is only 55%.  Wait (in this case) until the Jackpot is around $70,000 or higher before wagering.  If you normally wager $10 per draw, and you do not wager on 10 draws prior to the Jackpot reaching this level, you can wager $100 on the enriched Jackpot, and all 100 wagers have a 100% expected return (much better than the 50% or so when the Jackpot is low).

                    2. Make your wager on unpopular numbers.

                    One of the unfortunate aspects of high jackpots is that often they are shared by more than one player.  Of course, this could happen when the Jackpot is low, but low Jackpots usually do not have as many sales, so the probability of splitting the Jackpot is also lower.  When the Jackpot is high, the probability of a split increases.  To offset this, it is advantageous for players to select uncommonly selected numbers.  While the prevalence of Quick Pick plays makes it harder to find absolutely unpopular numbers, it is nevertheless still advantageous to avoid those numbers that are commonly played by the general populous.  Any number between 1 and 12 tends to be selected rather frequently, then numbers between 13 and 31.  These are the numbers corresponding to birthdays.  Multiples of 7 and 8 are also common selections.  And for some reason, numbers ending in 0 (multiples of 10) tend to be selected less often than other numbers.

                    If your lottery offers a chart of what numbers are selected most often by the players, it could be helpful in selecting uncommon combinations as well.

                    This system is not going to make you rich.  There are no implied promises here.  It is just the most advantageous way I can think of to play the lotteries.  I do not know if it qualifies as a "secret", but anyone who is interested is welcome to try it out.  If you are interested in more specific information about a game you would like to play, let me know and I will try to work out what a good Jackpot level might be.

                    Also, there is one "caveat" to this approach.

                    Caveat:  If high Jackpots result in extremely high sales, such that the ticket pool is overly saturated, the actual expected return can drop based upon the high probability of a multiple win (the Jackpot is most likely going to be shared).  In a game like this, the maximum return occurs before the Jackpot brings the expected return to 100% or higher.  In such games, it is better to play when the Jackpot is slightly lower than desired, but this also results in a lower expected return (under 100%).  If you are interested in such a game, this approach will be better than a fist full of Quick Picks on every draw, but it is still going to result in less that a 100% expected return.

                    Enjoy and have fun!

                     

                      MathWizard's avatar - moon
                      New Member
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                      Posted: June 18, 2005, 4:26 am - IP Logged

                      For games without a Jackpot (such as Pick 3, Pick 4, Keno etc.) there is also a system known as the Martingale System.  It works like this:

                      1. Save up as much money as you can.

                      If you play $5 per day, you will have to not play for 7 months or cut back to $1 per day for about 9 months in order to save the $1,023 you need to even have a shot at this.

                      2. Select a number to wager on with minimal return and maximum odds.  Example: Keno Pick 1 with 1 in 4 odds and 2 x wager prize.

                      3. Use the minimum wager amount. Example: $1

                      4. Place the wager.

                      5. If you win, return to step 3.

                      6. If you lose, double your wager amount and return to step 4.  That is, wager $2 ($4, $8, etc) on the same single outcome.

                      7. Quit when you have either lost all your money or won a predetermined amount (usually double your money, so you can bank 1/2 and start the process again).

                      If you start with $1,023 you can lose up to 10 times before you are completely tapped out.

                      Mathematically, this method does not produce big winners with any greater frequency than Quick Pick players, however, I think it is a lot more interesting.  But, as they say in Vegas ... "if you have a system, we want you at our Casino".

                      Example: 5-minute Keno with Pick 1 play:  Odds 1 in 4, Prize 2 x wager.  Probability of losing 10 in a row: 1 in 17.76.

                      So, in this game, 94.37% of the time you will win something before you lose the entire $1,023.  No matter how much you lose in the previous wagers, so long as you do not go all 10 times as a loser, you will come out ahead.  But, that 1 in 17.76 is the one that bites, and when it happens (as it is bound to do some day) you lose everything.

                      Please do not even think about trying this unless you can lose $1,000 without it affecting you.

                      Good luck!

                        LOTTOMIKE's avatar - cash money.jpg
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                        Posted: June 18, 2005, 4:31 am - IP Logged

                        thanks for the infoSee Ya!

                          MathWizard's avatar - moon
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                          Posted: June 18, 2005, 4:42 am - IP Logged

                          No Problem;

                          Actually, however, the Martingale system is not all that good unless you have a game with a decent payout and good odds.  The Keno example I used only nets about a $1 return every 4 draws with a 5% chance of catestrophic failure.  Still, a friend used to use it to pay for his drinks at the bar (with slightly more money involved).

                          It was originally designed for no-limit Casino games like Blackjack.

                            bobby623's avatar - abstract
                            San Angelo, Texas
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                            Posted: June 18, 2005, 12:55 pm - IP Logged

                             

                            MathWizard

                             

                            Could you give us some data, examples, etc, for using the Martingale system for a pick 5 game, such as the Texas 5/37 lottery??

                            Thanks

                              MathWizard's avatar - moon
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                              Posted: June 18, 2005, 6:38 pm - IP Logged
                              Unfortunately, the Martingale system is not really designed to work with Lotto style games like the Texas 5/37.  The only part of the game that could be used would be the $2 win for Match 2 at odds of 1 in 8.79.  This means that you would have to wager a progression of doubles with a 30% chance of losing $1,023 before even winning a single $1 above your total wagers.  Mind you, it does mean you would have played for the higher prizes for free 70% of the time.
                              The other part of Martingale that does not fit Lotto is the fact that you are playing the same combination over and over.  This is okay for games like Pick 3 and Keno because the top prize is fixed, but in Lotto games, the top prize (and in this case the three top prizes) are pari-mutual, which means if you win multiple times, you just get more shares of the same prize.  Which would you rather win?  One share worth $30,000 or two shares worth $15,000 each?  The idea in Martingale is as you double each wager, you double your potential return.  For Lotto games, that is only true in the small prizes, not the top ones.
                              I cannot recommend you do this, but if you are interested, this is how you might try it:
                              Note: Each wager amount is still on the same combination.
                              Draw  Wager   If you Match 2    If No Match
                               1
                               $1 
                               Win $2: Net $1
                               Down $1
                               2
                               $2
                               Win $4: Net $1
                               Down $3
                               3
                               $4
                               Win $8: Net $1
                               Down $7
                               4
                               $8
                               Win $16: Net $1
                               Down $15
                               5
                               $16
                               Win $32: Net $1
                               Down $31
                               6
                               $32
                               Win $64: Net $1
                               Down $63
                               7
                               $64
                               Win $128: Net $1
                               Down $127
                               8
                               $128
                               Win $256: Net $1
                               Down $255
                               9
                               $256
                               Win $512: Net $1
                               Down $511
                               10
                               $512
                               Win $1024: Net $1
                               Down $1,023
                              On the Texas 5/37 game, the odds of Match 3 are 1 in 87.88 and Match 4 are 1 in 2,724.36.  There is practically no expectation of having won either of these prizes after 10 wagers.  Match 3: 10.81%  Match 4: 0.4%
                              If you are lucky and win a Match 3 Prize, you could add as much as $5,120 to your results, but that has about a 1% chance of occurring.
                              So, 30% chance you lose $1,023 and ten, 1% chances you win between $10 and $5,120 (or so) and about a 60% chance you come out ahead by $1.  (There are other possible outcomes, but they are all under 1%.)
                              This means that over the long run, each time you do this to one of the three conclusions, you will average a loss of $188.65 over 10 draws.  Not all that good.

                              Following is a modified Martingale system for Texas Pick 3.  This system is designed to only wager the minimum amount required to come out ahead, so sometimes the win is only $0.50.  You could modify this system to use other minimums (such as $5 or $20) with higher likelihoods of catastrophic failure.  The table uses $0.50 wagers on Pick 3 Any Order, which has odds of 1 in 166.67 (6 in 1,000) and a prize of $40.  Note: all wagers are on the same outcome, so if it hits, the prize is multiplied ($40 x wager).  The table has the first 300 wagers, but can be used for fewer draws at a higher probability of no wins.  When you get to your limit, stop and start over with a new stake (or not).
                              With this approach, $1,000 buys about 300 wagers.  There is a 16.44% chance you will lose the entire $1,000 after 300 draws.  It does not matter if you wager on just day draws, just night draws or both.  All that matters is that if/when you win, you return to the start for the next draw.
                              The average return (when a win occurs) is just over $20 (plus all previous wagers).  This happens 83.56% of the time.
                              The loss is $959 if you go 300 draws without a win.  This happens 16.44% of the time.

                              The average result if this is frequently repeated to either conclusion is a loss of $140 over 300 draws.  Personally, I think this is a lot better than losing $189 over 10 draws even if I do get some chances at a big prize (there are no big prize possibilities on Pick 3).

                              (I am unable to post the table here.  Can someone tell me how I can add a 300 line excel table to the forums?)  The first 50 lines are:

                              DrawWagerSum CostPlaysPrizeNetProb
                              1$0.50 $0.50 1$40.00 $39.50 0.60%
                              2$0.50 $1.00 1$40.00 $39.00 1.20%
                              3$0.50 $1.50 1$40.00 $38.50 1.79%
                              4$0.50 $2.00 1$40.00 $38.00 2.38%
                              5$0.50 $2.50 1$40.00 $37.50 2.96%
                              6$0.50 $3.00 1$40.00 $37.00 3.55%
                              7$0.50 $3.50 1$40.00 $36.50 4.13%
                              8$0.50 $4.00 1$40.00 $36.00 4.70%
                              9$0.50 $4.50 1$40.00 $35.50 5.27%
                              10$0.50 $5.00 1$40.00 $35.00 5.84%
                              11$0.50 $5.50 1$40.00 $34.50 6.41%
                              12$0.50 $6.00 1$40.00 $34.00 6.97%
                              13$0.50 $6.50 1$40.00 $33.50 7.53%
                              14$0.50 $7.00 1$40.00 $33.00 8.08%
                              15$0.50 $7.50 1$40.00 $32.50 8.63%
                              16$0.50 $8.00 1$40.00 $32.00 9.18%
                              17$0.50 $8.50 1$40.00 $31.50 9.72%
                              18$0.50 $9.00 1$40.00 $31.00 10.27%
                              19$0.50 $9.50 1$40.00 $30.50 10.80%
                              20$0.50 $10.00 1$40.00 $30.00 11.34%
                              21$0.50 $10.50 1$40.00 $29.50 11.87%
                              22$0.50 $11.00 1$40.00 $29.00 12.40%
                              23$0.50 $11.50 1$40.00 $28.50 12.93%
                              24$0.50 $12.00 1$40.00 $28.00 13.45%
                              25$0.50 $12.50 1$40.00 $27.50 13.97%
                              26$0.50 $13.00 1$40.00 $27.00 14.48%
                              27$0.50 $13.50 1$40.00 $26.50 15.00%
                              28$0.50 $14.00 1$40.00 $26.00 15.51%
                              29$0.50 $14.50 1$40.00 $25.50 16.01%
                              30$0.50 $15.00 1$40.00 $25.00 16.52%
                              31$0.50 $15.50 1$40.00 $24.50 17.02%
                              32$0.50 $16.00 1$40.00 $24.00 17.52%
                              33$0.50 $16.50 1$40.00 $23.50 18.01%
                              34$0.50 $17.00 1$40.00 $23.00 18.50%
                              35$0.50 $17.50 1$40.00 $22.50 18.99%
                              36$0.50 $18.00 1$40.00 $22.00 19.48%
                              37$0.50 $18.50 1$40.00 $21.50 19.96%
                              38$0.50 $19.00 1$40.00 $21.00 20.44%
                              39$0.50 $19.50 1$40.00 $20.50 20.92%
                              40$0.50 $20.00 1$40.00 $20.00 21.39%
                              41$0.50 $20.50 1$40.00 $19.50 21.87%
                              42$0.50 $21.00 1$40.00 $19.00 22.33%
                              43$0.50 $21.50 1$40.00 $18.50 22.80%
                              44$0.50 $22.00 1$40.00 $18.00 23.26%
                              45$0.50 $22.50 1$40.00 $17.50 23.72%
                              46$0.50 $23.00 1$40.00 $17.00 24.18%
                              47$0.50 $23.50 1$40.00 $16.50 24.64%
                              48$0.50 $24.00 1$40.00 $16.00 25.09%
                              49$0.50 $24.50 1$40.00 $15.50 25.54%
                              50$0.50 $25.00 1$40.00 $15.00 25.99%


                               

                              Of course, each game and system appeals to each person differently.  This system does not guarantee any win, but it does tend to extend losses over a longer period of time.  Primarily, this is due to the reduced wager sizes at the start.  It is possible to use this system with a $100 limit (54% chance of winning) or $400 limit (75% chance of winning) etc.

                              Finally, I want to reiterate that Martingale is intended for games where the payout is much higher than 50% and where the odds are lower (easier to win).  This is just my best attempt to fit this system into the games mentioned.  I doubt I would ever actually play the games this way as I prefer the Jackpot Chasing method I mentioned earlier.
                              Enjoy and Good Luck.