Welcome Guest
Log In | Register )
You last visited December 3, 2016, 8:56 pm
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

Are Secrets Really Worth Keeping?

Topic closed. 39 replies. Last post 11 years ago by emilyg.

Page 3 of 3
PrintE-mailLink
NemeSys's avatar - Nemesis
Harrogate
United Kingdom
Member #16589
June 1, 2005
107 Posts
Offline
Posted: June 18, 2005, 6:57 pm - IP Logged

I'm not sure you could post an Excel file directly. All I can think of is copying and pasting from Excel, or a screen capture (I use HyperSnap, http://www.hyperionics.com/).

    MathWizard's avatar - moon
    New Member
    Kamloops, BC
    Canada
    Member #17371
    June 17, 2005
    13 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: June 18, 2005, 7:51 pm - IP Logged

    I created a text version of the table here:

    http://members.shaw.ca/RandallFlagg/Martingale.txt

    I tried to post the file directly through the editor, but it eventually failed.

     

      LANTERN's avatar - kilroy 28_173_reasonably_small.jpg
      Tx
      United States
      Member #4570
      May 4, 2004
      5180 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: June 18, 2005, 8:12 pm - IP Logged

      I might be wrong, but it seems to me that "knowing" and or "being sure" that the odds can't be improved is a definite disadvantage if you are or if you are trying to be or become a gambler.

      That is why I have no doubt in my mind whatsoever that the odds are in direct proportion to your knowledge of the game or inversely proportional, whichever might be the right term of what I am trying to say.

      Both, Math and Statistical knowledge can sometimes hinder and or be a handicap, because you "know" that you can't win "random events" other than by "luck" and or "chance".

      I say that "you make your own luck and your own chances".

      My knowledge of the games and it's right application, determines my chances and not "random" or "luck" or "Math" or "Statistics"

      If you say that you can't win, you already defeated yourself, the game didn't defeat you, you defeated yourself.

      My knowledge of the game is in direct control of the odds, the more that I know and know how to apply the better the odds in my favor.

      But there are as many opinions as there are people and yes, I know that I can't  spell.

      Good luck.

      BibleOnline  ParishesOnline  ChristianRadioOnline   MassOnline   Mass

      "Ten measures of beauty descended to the world, nine were taken by Jerusalem."

        Avatar
        wisconsin
        United States
        Member #15566
        May 17, 2005
        24 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: June 19, 2005, 8:15 am - IP Logged

        I was using a modified version on the Martengale system a while back when I was into sports betting, (Martengale +1) in effect adding 1 more dollar to each bet to recoup my losses and make $1 profit.  Then I hit a bad streak, I chased one 7 deep, I was betting $512 to make $1 profit, and guess what? I got that one wrong too!!! even though the odds told me that it was 98.5% in my favor not to get 7 in a row wrong.....it can, (and eventually will) happen!  That year I ended up with a 64% winning record ATS (against the spread) in college basketball and still lost money.  The key to sports and most gambling is money management.....dont chase your losses when losing and dont bet bigger when you are on a hot streak. 

        A much better way to go with the Pick 3 style games, in my opinion is to build your own jackpot, play numbers against your lottery  without actually buying tickets instead putting the money in your own pot, pay yourself if you win and let it build interest if you lose.  I posted this theory before and it did not go over to well.

        So why do I have an interest in the lottery?  I like the challenge.  To see if the system can be broke.  It sure is keeping my mind occupied.  I am studying things I never thought of before, ie Random number theory, standard deviation and such.  So even if in the end I determine that then numbers in my game (Wis Pk 3)are truly random, I have still game knowledge I did not have before.  And people like me who are looking long and hard at these games are keeping the lotto operators honest if nothing else.  One thing I have noticed, Wis went from the balls to the computer not so long ago, and the number patterns look different, and act (feel?) different  still cant exactly put my finger on it......

        dboz7

          ayenowitall's avatar - rod serling4.jpg

          United States
          Member #4416
          April 22, 2004
          1075 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: June 19, 2005, 10:29 am - IP Logged

          Originally posted by dboz7:

          "The key to sports and most gambling is money management.....dont chase your losses when losing and dont bet bigger when you are on a hot streak. 

          A much better way to go with the Pick 3 style games, in my opinion is to build your own jackpot, play numbers against your lottery  without actually buying tickets instead putting the money in your own pot, pay yourself if you win and let it build interest if you lose.  I posted this theory before and it did not go over to well."

          ......................................................................................................................

          dboz7,

          Your words have a great deal of merit. The overwhelming majority of us would  be way ahead of the game if we applied your method. Unfortunately, most gamblers are either too foolish or too reckless to implement such a plan as yours. The odds and edge of lottery games are too formidable to be overcome by any system. The best we can do is to utilize correct play and sound money management in order to avoid making a bad thing even worse. Gamblers like the cheap thrill of engaging in risk-taking behaviors. There's no such thrill in saving, and most gamblers lack the discipline to do that anyway.

          As for keeping or sharing secret systems of play, well...

          Dutchman's Gold
          by Walter Brennan


          (Dutchman's gold,)
          (Oh, Dutchman's gold.)

          Brennan:
          In The Arizona desert
          Stands a giant of earth and stone
          Mighty superstiyion mountain
          With it's mystery and it's gold.

          A miner, out prospectin'
          Found his fortune and his fame
          Found the gold of superstition
          Just plain Dutchman, was his name.

          Chorus:
          Oh, the Dutchman was a gambler
          And a party was his fun
          But he kept his precious secret
          Never trusting anyone.

          And in death, he still is laughing
          For the grave his secret holds
          And the mighty superstition
          Keeps the Dutchman's yellow gold.

          Yello gold.

          Brennan:
          Mighty superstition mountain
          Standing high and all alone
          Once you told your precious secret
          And you gave your soft, pure gold.

          'Pache indians know the story
          And in legend there is told
          Many takes of the beginnin'
          When you gave your yellow gold.

          Now I'd like to dream and wonder
          If someday you'll give again
          The bounty of your treasure
          To some lonely, strugglin' man.

          And if you, in all your splender
          May choose me to be the one
          To find your precious treasure
          Shinin' yella, in the sun.

          Chorus:
          Oh, the Dutch,an was a gambler
          And a party was his fun
          But he kept his precious secret
          Never trusting anyone.

          And in death, he still is laughing
          For the grave his secret holds
          And the mighty superstition
          Keeps the Dutchman's yellow gold

          Yellow gold.
          Yellow gold.
          Yellow gold.
          Dutchman's gold!...


            Avatar
            New Mexico
            United States
            Member #12305
            March 10, 2005
            2984 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: June 19, 2005, 11:02 am - IP Logged

            Originally posted by dboz7:

            "The key to sports and most gambling is money management.....dont chase your losses when losing and dont bet bigger when you are on a hot streak. 

            A much better way to go with the Pick 3 style games, in my opinion is to build your own jackpot, play numbers against your lottery  without actually buying tickets instead putting the money in your own pot, pay yourself if you win and let it build interest if you lose.  I posted this theory before and it did not go over to well."

            ......................................................................................................................

            dboz7,

            Your words have a great deal of merit. The overwhelming majority of us would  be way ahead of the game if we applied your method. Unfortunately, most gamblers are either too foolish or too reckless to implement such a plan as yours. The odds and edge of lottery games are too formidable to be overcome by any system. The best we can do is to utilize correct play and sound money management in order to avoid making a bad thing even worse. Gamblers like the cheap thrill of engaging in risk-taking behaviors. There's no such thrill in saving, and most gamblers lack the discipline to do that anyway.

            As for keeping or sharing secret systems of play, well...

            Dutchman's Gold
            by Walter Brennan


            (Dutchman's gold,)
            (Oh, Dutchman's gold.)

            Brennan:
            In The Arizona desert
            Stands a giant of earth and stone
            Mighty superstiyion mountain
            With it's mystery and it's gold.

            A miner, out prospectin'
            Found his fortune and his fame
            Found the gold of superstition
            Just plain Dutchman, was his name.

            Chorus:
            Oh, the Dutchman was a gambler
            And a party was his fun
            But he kept his precious secret
            Never trusting anyone.

            And in death, he still is laughing
            For the grave his secret holds
            And the mighty superstition
            Keeps the Dutchman's yellow gold.

            Yello gold.

            Brennan:
            Mighty superstition mountain
            Standing high and all alone
            Once you told your precious secret
            And you gave your soft, pure gold.

            'Pache indians know the story
            And in legend there is told
            Many takes of the beginnin'
            When you gave your yellow gold.

            Now I'd like to dream and wonder
            If someday you'll give again
            The bounty of your treasure
            To some lonely, strugglin' man.

            And if you, in all your splender
            May choose me to be the one
            To find your precious treasure
            Shinin' yella, in the sun.

            Chorus:
            Oh, the Dutch,an was a gambler
            And a party was his fun
            But he kept his precious secret
            Never trusting anyone.

            And in death, he still is laughing
            For the grave his secret holds
            And the mighty superstition
            Keeps the Dutchman's yellow gold

            Yellow gold.
            Yellow gold.
            Yellow gold.
            Dutchman's gold!...


            Aye:

            You're probably right for most people, if that's how they want to live.  Chasing some kind of understanding of how the lottery numbers work hasn't cost me anywhere nearly as much as a couple of decades of chasing a lost gold mine did.

            But I wouldn't swap a minute, or take back dollar of what I spent chasing a lost gold mine, and I think, as my life flashes before my eyes just before I exit this vehicle, I'll feel the same about chasing an understanding of the way numbers work, spending the bets as I go along.

            I'm a hard-core risk taker.  A bet'em high and sleep in the gutter gambler.

            I wouldn't want to be anything else.

            Jack 

             

             

              MathWizard's avatar - moon
              New Member
              Kamloops, BC
              Canada
              Member #17371
              June 17, 2005
              13 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: June 19, 2005, 5:34 pm - IP Logged

              For what it is worth, since I doubt anyone would actually play Pick 3 against their savings, but you could even pay yourself double what the Lottery pays.  In the end, you would not have saved anything though, but then, that's not really the point is it.

              Cheers!


                United States
                Member #89
                January 18, 2002
                2092 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: June 21, 2005, 1:46 am - IP Logged

                I believe the original question was about keeping a "thing, program, way of doing a secret."

                My input is quite simple---If it works and a person is making a profit, keep the way that you do it mum. Help with general ideas to get someone going because they might reciprocate when you need an idea or two. If you have loose lips and the province where you live gets hold of what and how you are doing a thing, you will be starting from scratch, guaranteed! The only other way to make money from what you are doing wether it works or not, is to be a pitchman or salesman telling the world that, " I have it, if you want it, pay me $xxxx.00 and I'll rush you my info as soon as your payment is confirmed."

                  Some secrets need not be shared and to me this is not being selfesh just economically sound and smart.

                Teufellj...

                  Avatar
                  New Member

                  Canada
                  Member #17528
                  June 21, 2005
                  3 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: June 21, 2005, 12:00 pm - IP Logged

                  Pick 3 is winnable, but you have to resign yourself to the fact that it may take that $40 investment to win $80.  A 50% profit is not all that bad when you think about it.  Anyone wanting to win consistently  playing a couple of bucks a day is nickel/diming themselves into a ditch. 

                  Orangeman                          Confused

                   

                  Exactly, there are a ton of people out there who consistently pull out a profit from pick 3.

                   

                  You just gotta find a system that is right for you and that you feel comfortable using. Spending $40 for $80 is a pretty good deal in my eyes.

                   

                  Bustya

                    emilyg's avatar - cat anm.gif

                    United States
                    Member #14
                    November 9, 2001
                    31342 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: June 21, 2005, 12:36 pm - IP Logged

                    Pick 3 is winnable, but you have to resign yourself to the fact that it may take that $40 investment to win $80.  A 50% profit is not all that bad when you think about it.  Anyone wanting to win consistently  playing a couple of bucks a day is nickel/diming themselves into a ditch. 

                    Orangeman                          Confused

                     

                    Exactly, there are a ton of people out there who consistently pull out a profit from pick 3.

                     

                    You just gotta find a system that is right for you and that you feel comfortable using. Spending $40 for $80 is a pretty good deal in my eyes.

                     

                    Bustya

                    i agree - nice profit

                    love to nibble those micey feet.