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Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.

Topic closed. 352 replies. Last post 10 years ago by Prob988.

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United States
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June 2, 2005
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Posted: April 29, 2006, 2:47 am - IP Logged

Prob988, the MM Jackpot has rolled to 41 million for 5/2 (Tuesday).

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    New Jersey
    United States
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    September 4, 2005
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    Posted: April 29, 2006, 7:49 am - IP Logged

    The MM jackpot has rolled over.  The cash value of the prize is 23.0M and the advertised annuity jackpot is $41M.  The cash value of the MM has leapfrogged higher than that of the Powerball

    The average sales for MM 4th round drawings is $17.8M.  If this is the number of tickets sold, the probability of various numbers of winners is as follows:

    090.47%
    19.06%
    20.45%
    30.02%

    In the previous jackpot run, which established some records for jackpot growth before settling down to behave in a more typical fashion, I treated the system as if a historical average data had skipped a drawing.  While the current run is not exceeding the previous records, it remains close to those records.    Therefore the data suggests that I do the same here.  I will report the modeling program as if an average drawing number has been skipped.    This will, I think, give a better picture of what may happen should this run continue for a long time.

    The long term probability model thus suggests this:

     $540,470,787.71$303,683,39750.15%0.60%
    $471,836,250.09$265,118,55754.34%1.20%
    (Average Annuity, M)$411,181,948.02$231,037,70658.33%2.21%
    $315 $357,580,008.12$200,919,48462.10%3.78%
    $262 $310,210,442.19$174,303,15065.64%6.09%
    $247 $268,348,603.23$150,781,53668.93%9.27%
    $217 $231,354,099.97$129,994,81371.98%13.45%
    $186 $198,661,000.34$111,624,99274.79%18.69%
    $158 $169,769,174.02$95,391,05777.36%24.99%
    $135 $144,236,641.54$81,044,66479.70%32.30%
    $115 $121,672,813.01$68,366,34781.83%40.53%
    $96 $101,732,512.99$57,162,15583.76%49.53%
    $81 $84,110,700.09$47,260,69185.50%59.13%
    $69 $68,537,800.50$38,510,48587.08%69.16%
    $57 $54,775,584.14$30,777,67788.49%79.42%
    $46 $42,613,520.30$23,943,97489.76%89.76%

    Here as before, the first column represents average annuities in millions, the second column represents the annuity jackpot, the third column the cash jackpot, the fourth column the individual likihood for a particular drawing, and the fourth column the likihood of all jackpots up to and including that one rolling. 

     


      United States
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      Posted: April 30, 2006, 1:46 am - IP Logged

      It will be interesting to see what MM does with sales in next draw. I hope MM continues to roll. If it does, a roll 4 record may occur because of interest rates. However, gas prices may not make a roll 4 record possible in MM. The current MM roll 4 record stands at 56 million.

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        New Jersey
        United States
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        September 4, 2005
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        Posted: May 3, 2006, 4:42 am - IP Logged

        The MM jackpot has rolled over.  The cash value of the prize is 30.4M and the advertised annuity jackpot is $54M.  The cash value of the MM has leapfrogged higher than that of the Powerball.

        For statistical purposes I am treating next this jackpot like a sixth and not an average fifth, based on performance. 

        The average sales for MM 6th round drawings is $20.2M.  If this is the number of tickets sold, the probability of various numbers of winners is as follows:

        089.09%
        110.29%
        20.59%
        30.02%

        The long term jackpot evolution model looks like this:

         $540,425,927.88$303,658,19150.19%0.67%
        $471,867,807.83$265,136,28954.37%1.34%
        (Average Annuity, M)$411,270,190.61$231,087,28858.36%2.46%
        $315 $357,708,756.77$200,991,82662.12%4.21%
        $262 $310,366,512.52$174,390,84465.65%6.78%
        $247 $268,521,327.84$150,878,58868.94%10.32%
        $217 $231,534,921.54$130,096,41471.98%14.97%
        $186 $198,843,125.31$111,727,32674.78%20.80%
        $158 $169,947,278.22$95,491,13177.35%27.81%
        $135 $144,406,620.46$81,140,17379.69%35.96%
        $115 $121,831,570.26$68,455,55081.82%45.12%
        $96 $101,877,781.42$57,243,78083.75%55.15%
        $81 $84,240,890.90$47,333,84485.49%65.85%
        $69 $68,651,876.21$38,574,58387.06%77.03%
        $57 $54,872,951.93$30,832,38788.47%88.47%


          United States
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          Posted: May 3, 2006, 12:08 pm - IP Logged

          Prob988, I like it when it keeps rolling. However, the current jackpot of 54 million isn't a new roll 4 record. The current roll 4 and 5 records are 56 and 68 respectively.

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            New Jersey
            United States
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            September 4, 2005
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            Posted: May 6, 2006, 8:01 am - IP Logged

            The MM jackpot has rolled over.  The cash value of the prize is 37.0M and the advertised annuity jackpot is $66M.  The cash value of the MM has leapfrogged higher than that of the Powerball.

            As explained earlier, because the MM is running a little higher than average, although not record breaking, I will treat this draw as a 7th draw, rather than an 6th draw.  The reason is that the long term behavior matches the models better under this circumstance.

            Seventh draws average 21.5M in sales.  If this is the number of tickets sold, the probability of various numbers of winners is as follows:

             

            088.48%
            110.83%
            20.66%
            30.03%

            Based on sales, the recent jackpot produced a cash value of $30.5M.  This was very close to the value predicted by the long term modelling program previously.  The new long term model predicts the following jackpot evolution:

             $541,662,108.83$303,659,06150.25%0.76%
             $473,070,606.70$265,206,24954.42%1.51%
            (Average Annuity, M)$412,424,572.66$231,207,71558.39%2.78%
            $315 $358,803,623.54$201,147,48662.15%4.75%
            $262 $311,393,991.08$174,569,35965.67%7.65%
            $247 $269,476,171.88$151,069,97568.95%11.65%
            $217 $232,414,008.04$130,292,70171.98%16.89%
            $186 $199,645,032.58$111,922,21574.77%23.47%
            $158 $170,671,933.29$95,679,72077.34%31.39%
            $135 $145,055,005.36$81,318,71579.67%40.59%
            $115 $122,405,478.31$68,621,25381.80%50.94%
            $96 $102,379,615.83$57,394,63383.72%62.28%
            $81 $84,673,499.19$47,468,47785.46%74.38%
            $69 $69,018,414.82$38,692,14287.03%87.03%

             

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              Morrison, IL
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              May 13, 2004
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              Posted: May 6, 2006, 4:48 pm - IP Logged

              I wonder, if Powerball rolls tonight, if its cash jackpot will be less than Mega Millions'. Of course, I hope I win Powerball tonight, as I'd be happy with $32.6 million cash, even before taxes.

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                New Jersey
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                Posted: May 7, 2006, 8:37 pm - IP Logged

                I wonder, if Powerball rolls tonight, if its cash jackpot will be less than Mega Millions'. Of course, I hope I win Powerball tonight, as I'd be happy with $32.6 million cash, even before taxes.

                Anyone would be happy with any kind of jackpot win, except maybe CashOnly.

                Anyway, it didn't happen that MM exceeded PB this time around, but if neither jackpot is won, MM will pass PB in cash value within a few draws, I think.

                The PB is still a better bet than MM, since the odds of winning PB are much better than winning MM.  In order for the bets to be equivalent, MM must exceed PB by about 20% in cash value.

                  dvdiva's avatar - 8ball

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                  Posted: May 8, 2006, 12:17 am - IP Logged

                  The only thing Cashonly wouldn't want would be a win for life without a cash option.

                  I still think neither game will break 300 this time around. 

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                    New Jersey
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                    Posted: May 10, 2006, 1:22 am - IP Logged

                    According to the Illinois website, the MM has rolled.  The new annuity jackpot is $80M.  The new cash jackpot is not yet available.  If we treat this drawing as an 8th round roll, and expect its sales to match the 8th round average of 23.3M, the probability of various numbers of winners will be:

                    087.58%
                    111.61%
                    20.77%
                    30.03%

                    has not updated the sales figures.  The long term projections and other analysis will need to wait until these figures are available.

                      dvdiva's avatar - 8ball

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                      Posted: May 10, 2006, 1:49 am - IP Logged

                      You're really up late. That's one advantage to living on the west coast - updates right before bedtime.

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                        New Jersey
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                        Posted: May 10, 2006, 7:17 am - IP Logged

                        The MM has rolled.  The new annuity jackpot is $80M.  The new cash jackpot is $44.  If we treat this drawing as an 8th round roll, and expect its sales to match the 8th round average of 23.3M, the probability of various numbers of winners is as follows:

                        087.58%
                        111.61%
                        20.77%
                        30.03%

                        The long range modeling program gives suggests the following jackpot evolution:

                         $619,227,666.82$347,142,78345.94%0.40%
                        $541,703,022.91$303,681,99850.27%0.87%
                        $473,150,917.75$265,251,27254.43%1.74%
                        (Average Annuity, M)$412,532,888.63$231,268,43858.40%3.19%
                        $315 $358,930,662.33$201,218,70562.15%5.46%
                        $262 $311,532,244.62$174,646,86465.67%8.78%
                        $247 $269,619,619.79$151,150,39368.95%13.37%
                        $217 $232,557,873.75$130,373,35371.98%19.40%
                        $186 $199,785,576.00$112,001,00574.77%26.95%
                        $158 $170,806,274.87$95,755,03377.33%36.04%
                        $135 $145,180,976.91$81,389,33679.66%46.61%
                        $115 $122,521,496.89$68,686,29481.79%58.51%
                        $96 $102,484,577.28$57,453,47583.71%71.54%
                        $81 $84,766,688.47$47,520,71985.45%85.45%


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                          Posted: May 10, 2006, 1:03 pm - IP Logged

                          Prob988, I hope it continues to roll. The MM roll 7 record is 96 million.


                            United States
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                            Posted: May 13, 2006, 3:41 am - IP Logged

                            Prob988, I hope it continues to roll. The MM roll 7 record is 96 million.

                            Prob988, MM Jackpot for 5/16 has rolled to 94 million. The MM roll 8 record is 117 million.

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                              New Jersey
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                              Posted: May 13, 2006, 7:03 am - IP Logged

                              The MM has rolled.  The new cash jackpot is $52.6.  The advertised annuity jackpot is $94M.    If we treat this drawing as an 9th round roll, in order to accomidate the fact that it is running ahead of average, and expect its sales to match the 9th round average of 26.4M, the probability of various numbers of winners is as follows:

                              086.05%
                              112.93%
                              20.97%
                              30.05%

                              The long range model suggests the following jackpot evolution:

                               $619,316,744.61$347,192,72045.97%0.47%
                              $541,862,171.63$303,771,21750.29%1.02%
                              $473,359,914.01$265,368,43754.45%2.03%
                              (Average Annuity, M)$412,775,249.76$231,404,30758.42%3.73%
                              $315 $359,193,051.59$201,365,80262.16%6.38%
                              $262 $311,803,964.02$174,799,19265.67%10.27%
                              $247 $269,892,178.05$151,303,19168.94%15.63%
                              $217 $232,824,618.97$130,522,89271.97%22.68%
                              $186 $200,041,383.80$112,144,41274.76%31.51%
                              $158 $171,047,283.97$95,890,14477.32%42.15%
                              $135 $145,404,365.56$81,514,56979.65%54.51%
                              $115 $122,725,294.00$68,800,54481.77%68.44%
                              $96 $102,667,503.44$57,556,02583.70%83.70%

                               

                                 
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