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Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.

Topic closed. 352 replies. Last post 10 years ago by Prob988.

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New Jersey
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Posted: June 7, 2006, 7:43 am - IP Logged

The Megamillions jackpot has rolled over.  The cash value is $9.6M.  The advertised annuity value is $17M.

The average sales for a 2nd draw is about $15.9M.  If this is the number of tickets that sell, then the random propability for numbers of winners is as follows:

091.50%
18.12%
20.36%
30.01%

 $470,777,282.83$265,466,07954.43%0.86%
(Average Annuity, M)$410,508,103.27$231,480,95858.40%1.59%
$315 $357,207,299.69$201,425,22762.14%2.72%
$262 $310,069,182.30$174,844,56765.66%4.38%
$247 $268,381,215.85$151,337,18668.93%6.66%
$217 $231,513,249.05$130,547,74971.96%9.67%
$186 $198,907,989.26$112,162,00574.75%13.43%
$158 $170,072,578.53$95,902,03777.31%17.97%
$135 $144,571,143.56$81,522,06279.64%23.25%
$115 $122,018,207.12$68,804,71181.77%29.19%
$96 $102,072,861.19$57,557,75283.69%35.70%
$84 $84,433,613.85$47,611,17785.43%42.65%
$71 $68,833,831.93$38,814,63387.00%49.92%
$59 $55,037,710.63$31,035,15388.41%57.38%
$48 $42,836,709.10$24,155,14489.68%64.90%
$36 $32,046,398.20$18,070,60890.82%72.37%
$27 $22,503,672.61$12,689,57191.84%79.68%
$17 $14,064,285.42$7,930,69492.74%86.77%

 

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    New Jersey
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    Member #21206
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    Posted: June 10, 2006, 8:20 am - IP Logged

    The Megamillions jackpot has rolled over.  The cash value is $14.2M, the advertised annuity value is $25M.  Third round drawings in MM have, on average, 16.7M in sales.  If this is the number of tickets sold, the probability of various numbers of winners is as follows:

    090.93%
    18.64%
    20.41%
    30.01%

    The model for the long term jackpot suggests a long term probability for jackpot evolution:

     $470,781,910.85$265,468,68954.42%1.00%
    (Average Annuity, M)$410,498,465.65$231,475,52458.39%1.83%
    $315 $357,187,201.22$201,413,89462.14%3.13%
    $262 $310,041,738.53$174,829,09165.66%5.04%
    $247 $268,348,961.68$151,318,99868.93%7.68%
    $217 $231,478,231.33$130,528,00371.96%11.15%
    $186 $198,871,845.79$112,141,62474.75%15.49%
    $158 $170,036,605.27$95,881,75277.31%20.72%
    $135 $144,536,351.79$81,502,44379.65%26.80%
    $115 $121,985,371.97$68,786,19681.77%33.65%
    $96 $102,042,562.71$57,540,66783.70%41.15%
    $84 $84,406,271.78$47,595,75985.44%49.17%
    $71 $68,809,735.00$38,801,04587.01%57.55%
    $59 $55,017,041.28$31,023,49888.42%66.14%
    $48 $42,819,564.18$24,145,47689.69%74.81%
    $36 $32,032,806.30$18,062,94490.82%83.41%
    $27 $22,493,608.60$12,683,89691.84%91.84%


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      Posted: June 10, 2006, 11:42 pm - IP Logged

      MM is back to reality. I hope it continues to roll Prob988. However, NY Lotto and CA SLP jackpot is currently higher than MM.


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        Posted: June 14, 2006, 1:30 am - IP Logged

        Prob988, MM Jackpot for 6/16 has rolled to 34 million according to usamega.com.

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          New Jersey
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          Posted: June 14, 2006, 7:51 am - IP Logged

          The Megamillions jackpot has rolled over.  The cash value is $19.4M, the advertised annuity value is $34M.  Third round drawings in MM have, on average, 17.7M in sales.  If this is the number of tickets sold, the probability of various numbers of winners is as follows:

          090.42%
          19.11%
          20.46%
          30.02%

          The long term probability model function for jackpot evolution, wherein the first column is historal averages of annuities, the second column is the model annuity, the third column is the model cash, the fourth column is the rollover probability for a particular draw, and the last column is the rollover probability of that draw and all previous draws combined, now looks like this:

           $539,003,892.48$303,938,30650.23%0.54%
          $470,780,294.49$265,467,77754.40%1.08%
          (Average Annuity, M)$410,454,753.78$231,450,87558.37%1.99%
          $315 $357,112,934.10$201,372,01662.13%3.41%
          $262 $309,946,349.37$174,775,30365.65%5.50%
          $247 $268,240,109.73$151,257,61768.92%8.37%
          $217 $231,362,086.12$130,462,51071.96%12.15%
          $186 $198,753,329.32$112,074,79474.75%16.88%
          $158 $169,919,598.12$95,815,77377.31%22.58%
          $135 $144,423,868.25$81,439,01579.65%29.21%
          $115 $121,879,708.52$68,726,61381.78%36.67%
          $96 $101,945,423.82$57,485,89283.70%44.84%
          $84 $84,318,876.14$47,546,47785.45%53.57%
          $71 $68,732,905.14$38,757,72287.02%62.69%
          $59 $54,951,278.90$30,986,41688.43%72.05%
          $48 $42,765,113.42$24,114,77289.70%81.47%
          $36 $31,989,706.62$18,038,64090.83%90.83%


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            Posted: June 14, 2006, 11:51 am - IP Logged

            Prob988, still CA SLP and NY Lotto have higher jackpots than MM. I hope that CA SLP continues to roll with MM.

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              New Jersey
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              Posted: June 17, 2006, 8:16 am - IP Logged

              MM has been won.  The jackpot is reset at $6.8M cash, 12M annuity.

              The average 1st draw sells 15.9M tickets.

              The winner probability distribution is, if the draw sells an average number of tickets, as follows:

              091.35%
              18.27%
              20.37%
              30.01%

              With the jackpots in the two largest MM states, California and New York, being considerably higher, the MM may not sell an average number of tickets.  It depends on what happens tonight.  The last first drawing a few weeks ago, sold less than average, 14.8M tickets.

              I will post the long term probability model function results after lottoreport posts the sales figures for this last draw. 

               

               

               


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                Posted: June 17, 2006, 10:12 am - IP Logged

                Prob988, it's all about luck. Congratulations to California on winning MM, winning their first MM jackpot this year. Whenever a MM jackpot wins of less than 100 million, the next sales run will drop.

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                  New Jersey
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                  Posted: June 17, 2006, 8:34 pm - IP Logged

                  Here is the modeling function for long term probability of the new MM run.  The program does not account for first draw minimums.

                   

                   $470,772,308.31$265,463,27454.39%0.86%
                  (Average Annuity, M)$410,432,518.68$231,438,33758.37%1.59%
                  $315 $357,080,508.38$201,353,73162.12%2.72%
                  $262 $309,907,042.56$174,753,13865.64%4.38%
                  $247 $268,196,601.58$151,233,08468.92%6.68%
                  $217 $231,316,528.06$130,436,82071.96%9.69%
                  $186 $198,707,430.91$112,048,91274.75%13.46%
                  $158 $169,874,700.50$95,790,45677.32%18.01%
                  $135 $144,381,006.55$81,414,84579.65%23.29%
                  $115 $121,839,664.75$68,704,03381.78%29.24%
                  $96 $101,908,771.59$57,465,22483.71%35.76%
                  $84 $84,286,018.46$47,527,94985.45%42.72%
                  $71 $68,704,106.21$38,741,48287.02%49.99%
                  $59 $54,926,690.88$30,972,55188.43%57.45%
                  $48 $42,744,798.81$24,103,31789.70%64.96%
                  $36 $31,973,656.99$18,029,59090.84%72.42%
                  $27 $22,449,890.46$12,659,24491.85%79.73%
                  $17 $14,029,044.22$7,910,82292.76%86.80%
                  $12 $6,583,392.23$3,712,30293.57%93.57%

                   

                    dvdiva's avatar - 8ball

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                    Posted: June 17, 2006, 11:04 pm - IP Logged

                    I have a feeling the real world odds of it cracking 300 million on this run are way less than 3%.

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                      New Jersey
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                      Posted: June 21, 2006, 11:09 am - IP Logged

                      The megamillions jackpot has rolled.  The cash jackpot is now $9.0M and the advertised annuity is $16M.    Note that the last drawing produced the record lowest sales since the matrix change, 13.567M in sales.  With California, NY and Texas all having larger in state jackpots, this is not surprising.

                      Nevertheless, the average number of tickets sold for second MM drawings is 15.9M.  If MM manages to reach this figure on this draw, the probability of various numbers of winners will be as follows:

                       

                      091.35%
                      18.27%
                      20.37%
                      30.01%

                      The long term probability function, which is not very accurate for the first several drawings but gives an idea of the long term probability of jackpot evolution, gives the following data:

                       

                       $539,201,030.77$304,049,47050.16%0.46%
                      $470,830,526.72$265,496,10354.34%0.92%
                      (Average Annuity, M)$410,393,798.57$231,416,50358.33%1.70%
                      $315 $356,970,203.70$201,291,53262.09%2.91%
                      $262 $309,745,931.71$174,662,28965.62%4.69%
                      $247 $268,001,607.48$151,123,12968.91%7.15%
                      $217 $231,101,332.87$130,315,47471.95%10.37%
                      $186 $198,482,999.91$111,922,35874.75%14.42%
                      $158 $169,649,728.18$95,663,59777.32%19.29%
                      $135 $144,162,295.71$81,291,51779.66%24.94%
                      $115 $121,632,448.24$68,587,18681.79%31.31%
                      $96 $101,716,984.91$57,357,07883.72%38.28%
                      $84 $84,112,530.18$47,430,12185.47%45.72%
                      $71 $68,550,912.49$38,655,09887.04%53.50%
                      $59 $54,795,079.18$30,898,33688.45%61.46%
                      $48 $42,635,485.36$24,041,67689.72%69.49%
                      $36 $31,886,901.94$17,980,67090.86%77.45%
                      $27 $22,385,593.98$12,622,98891.87%85.24%
                      $17 $13,986,826.50$7,887,01692.78%92.78%

                       

                       


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                        Posted: June 21, 2006, 11:14 am - IP Logged

                        Prob988, I would be surprised if NY Lotto was hit tonight, but MM and CA SLP continue to roll.

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                          Posted: June 24, 2006, 5:09 am - IP Logged

                          The megamillions jackpot has rolled.  The cash jackpot is now $12.9M and the advertised annuity is $23M.   

                          The average sales on third drawings in a series is 16.5M.  If this is the number of tickets that are sold, the probability of various numbers of winner will be as follows:

                          091.04%
                          18.55%
                          20.40%
                          30.01%

                          Sales continue to run below average owing to the large in state jackpots in the three largest populaton states,  Texas, New York and California.  Thus, depending on what happens in these states tomorrow, the number of sold tickets may lag below average again.

                          The long term exponential modeling fuction suggests the following evolution of the jack pot:

                           $914,339,125.67$515,585,67432.36%0.01%
                          $802,546,745.90$452,547,19336.88%0.03%
                          $703,712,118.02$396,815,44441.40%0.09%
                          $616,333,320.93$347,543,51245.86%0.23%
                          $539,082,519.81$303,982,64350.20%0.50%
                          $470,785,787.99$265,470,87554.37%1.00%
                          (Average Annuity, M)$410,405,267.52$231,422,97058.35%1.83%
                          $315 $357,023,397.62$201,321,52762.11%3.14%
                          $262 $309,828,971.15$174,709,11465.63%5.05%
                          $247 $268,104,807.24$151,181,32268.92%7.70%
                          $217 $231,216,852.78$130,380,61471.96%11.17%
                          $186 $198,604,547.18$111,990,89774.75%15.52%
                          $158 $169,772,303.92$95,732,71677.32%20.76%
                          $135 $144,281,979.45$81,359,00579.66%26.86%
                          $115 $121,746,215.04$68,651,33881.79%33.71%
                          $96 $101,822,550.35$57,416,60583.71%41.22%
                          $84 $84,208,219.31$47,484,07985.46%49.24%
                          $71 $68,635,549.17$38,702,82487.03%57.62%
                          $59 $54,867,892.90$30,939,39588.44%66.21%
                          $48 $42,696,033.00$24,075,81989.71%74.86%
                          $36 $31,935,002.18$18,007,79390.85%83.45%
                          $26 $22,421,272.55$12,643,10691.86%91.86%

                           



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                            Posted: June 27, 2006, 5:12 pm - IP Logged

                            I hope MM continues to roll with lagging sales. However, I hope NY Lotto wins jackpot, but also hope that CA SLP continues to roll over 100 million.


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                              Posted: June 28, 2006, 1:32 am - IP Logged

                              Prob988, Bradly_60 confirmed to me that MM Jackpot winner is sold in Ohio. I think MM sales will fall if CA SLP continues to roll.

                                 
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