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Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.

Topic closed. 352 replies. Last post 10 years ago by Prob988.

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dvdiva's avatar - 8ball

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Posted: May 13, 2006, 9:41 am - IP Logged

Considering the shift from a 58% payout to a 55% payout and climbing interest rates I wonder if it's sales that are increasing or just the annuity. Still the payouts are much better than Powerball's.

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    New Jersey
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    Posted: May 13, 2006, 8:17 pm - IP Logged

    Considering the shift from a 58% payout to a 55% payout and climbing interest rates I wonder if it's sales that are increasing or just the annuity. Still the payouts are much better than Powerball's.

    For the purposes of my calculations, I don't pay any attention whatsoever to the annuity value, which is just marketing.    I include them here because that is what most people think about.  But the numbers I offer for annuity are after the fact calcuations.  The actual thing that I model is sales, not jackpots, cash or otherwise.  I use the figures at .  Previously I estimated sales, but the lottoreport figures are very accurate.  She gets them as a press report directly faxed from various state lotteries.

    It seems that sales are up, though not, obviously, record breaking. 

     

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      Posted: May 17, 2006, 7:08 am - IP Logged

      MM has been won.  The jackpot is reset at $6.7M cash, 12M annuity.

      The average 1st draw sells 16.0M tickets.

      The winner probability distribution is as follows:

      091.30%
      18.31%
      20.38%
      30.01%

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        New Jersey
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        Posted: May 17, 2006, 3:15 pm - IP Logged

        Here are the long term probability figures for a newly rolled jackpot, according to the model I have developed:

         $473,566,434.66$265,484,21354.46%0.86%
        (Average Annuity, M)$412,991,054.99$231,525,28858.42%1.59%
        $315 $359,411,442.44$201,488,23362.16%2.72%
        $262 $312,019,665.53$174,920,11665.67%4.37%
        $247 $270,101,099.63$151,420,31368.94%6.65%
        $217 $233,023,651.15$130,634,47171.96%9.65%
        $186 $200,228,226.11$112,249,15774.75%13.41%
        $158 $171,220,299.52$95,987,13877.30%17.95%
        $135 $145,562,458.40$81,603,19679.64%23.21%
        $115 $122,867,806.00$68,880,43781.76%29.15%
        $96 $102,794,127.74$57,627,01183.68%35.65%
        $84 $85,038,730.92$47,673,22885.42%42.61%
        $71 $69,333,880.41$38,868,99486.99%49.88%
        $59 $55,442,761.45$31,081,54888.40%57.34%
        $48 $43,155,908.68$24,193,46489.67%64.86%
        $36 $32,288,047.61$18,100,87590.81%72.33%
        $27 $22,675,300.83$12,711,91191.82%79.65%
        $17 $14,172,716.94$7,945,31192.73%86.75%
        $12 $6,652,084.74$3,729,19993.54%93.54%


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          Posted: May 18, 2006, 10:14 am - IP Logged

          Since MM didn't really set new roll records except for 1st roll, I think the trend will not set any records unless it keeps rolling. When someone wins a jackpot less than $100 million, this trend happens.

            spy153's avatar - maren

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            Posted: May 18, 2006, 10:21 am - IP Logged

            since both pots were hit over the week, you KNOW no one is going to get another jackpot for a few more months. I'm calling it, a four month roll. wow, what a pot that would be. And could you imagine the sales on that one?

            voir-vous dans mes reves!Cool


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              Posted: May 19, 2006, 11:00 am - IP Logged

              I think the next MM run won't set any records due to high gas prices. I think it will roll enough times to set one roll record, but someone will probably hit a 365+ million jackpot.

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                Posted: May 20, 2006, 9:15 am - IP Logged

                The MegaMillions jackpot has rolled over.  The cash jackpot is $10.1M.  The advertised annuity jackpot is $18M.

                The average number of tickets sold for 2nd draw sales in $15.9M.  If this is how many tickets are sold, the probability distribution for numbers of winners is given in this table:

                091.35%
                18.27%
                20.37%
                30.01%

                Lotteryreport has not updated the sales for the last drawing.  I will therefore post the long term probabilities after they become available.

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                  Posted: May 20, 2006, 10:16 am - IP Logged

                  Here are the long term probabilities for rollovers:

                   $541,996,346.90$303,846,43750.32%0.46%
                  $473,549,543.31$265,474,74454.47%0.92%
                  (Average Annuity, M)$413,002,845.32$231,531,89858.43%1.70%
                  $315 $359,444,425.56$201,506,72362.17%2.90%
                  $262 $312,067,699.46$174,947,04465.67%4.67%
                  $247 $270,159,178.15$151,452,87368.94%7.11%
                  $217 $233,087,723.38$130,670,39071.96%10.31%
                  $186 $200,295,042.66$112,286,61574.75%14.33%
                  $158 $171,287,281.43$96,024,68877.30%19.17%
                  $135 $145,627,585.63$81,639,70779.63%24.80%
                  $115 $122,929,522.74$68,915,03581.75%31.14%
                  $96 $102,851,262.15$57,659,04183.68%38.09%
                  $84 $85,090,427.23$47,702,20985.42%45.52%
                  $71 $69,379,541.52$38,894,59186.99%53.30%
                  $59 $55,482,000.62$31,103,54688.40%61.27%
                  $48 $43,188,508.92$24,211,74089.66%69.32%
                  $36 $32,313,927.64$18,115,38490.80%77.31%
                  $27 $22,694,486.64$12,722,66791.82%85.14%
                  $17 $14,185,318.08$7,952,37592.73%92.73%


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                    Posted: May 21, 2006, 3:01 am - IP Logged

                    That's a great probability long term predictions. MM Jackpots will continue to roll, but there's a good chance it won't set new roll records.

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                      Posted: May 24, 2006, 7:23 am - IP Logged

                      The MegaMillions jackpot has rolled over.  The cash jackpot is $15.2M.  The advertised annuity jackpot is $27M.

                      The average number of tickets sold for 3rd draw sales in $16.6M.  If this is how many tickets are sold, the probability distribution for numbers of winners is given in this table:

                      090.99%
                      18.60%
                      20.41%
                      30.01%

                      The long term probability model gives the following predictions:

                       $541,947,390.96$303,818,99250.34%0.50%
                      $473,540,086.68$265,469,44354.49%1.00%
                      (Average Annuity, M)$413,023,233.01$231,543,32858.44%1.83%
                      $315 $359,486,704.75$201,530,42562.18%3.13%
                      $262 $312,125,355.24$174,979,36665.68%5.03%
                      $247 $270,226,907.58$151,490,84268.94%7.66%
                      $217 $233,161,242.54$130,711,60671.97%11.12%
                      $186 $200,370,922.11$112,329,15374.75%15.45%
                      $158 $171,362,806.03$96,067,02877.30%20.66%
                      $135 $145,700,635.37$81,680,65979.63%26.73%
                      $115 $122,998,471.58$68,953,68981.75%33.57%
                      $96 $102,914,892.21$57,694,71283.67%41.06%
                      $84 $85,147,856.28$47,734,40485.41%49.07%
                      $71 $69,430,161.72$38,922,96986.98%57.46%
                      $59 $55,525,426.96$31,127,89188.39%66.06%
                      $48 $43,224,535.89$24,231,93789.66%74.74%
                      $36 $32,342,492.91$18,131,39890.79%83.36%
                      $27 $22,715,640.78$12,734,52691.81%91.81%

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                        Posted: May 27, 2006, 7:20 am - IP Logged

                        The Megamillions jackpot has rolled over.  The cash value is $20.3M.  The advertised annuity value is $36M.

                        The average sales for a 4th draw is about $18.0.  If this is the number of tickets that sell, then the random propability for numbers of winners is as follows:

                        090.26%
                        19.25%
                        20.47%
                        30.02%

                        Lottoreport has not yet posted the sales figures for the last drawing, and I will update the long term projection once they have done so. 

                         

                         

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                          Posted: May 27, 2006, 5:46 pm - IP Logged

                          Here are the long term probability model results for jackpot evolution including the latest sales figures:

                           $538,763,737.51$303,802,88550.36%0.55%
                          $470,784,437.63$265,470,11354.50%1.09%
                          (Average Annuity, M)$410,642,221.49$231,556,58658.45%1.99%
                          $315 $357,433,580.49$201,552,82562.18%3.41%
                          $262 $310,359,168.22$175,008,08765.69%5.48%
                          $247 $268,711,792.00$151,523,59468.95%8.34%
                          $217 $231,865,788.78$130,746,54271.97%12.10%
                          $186 $199,267,625.90$112,364,80074.75%16.82%
                          $158 $170,427,585.45$96,102,22277.30%22.50%
                          $135 $144,912,407.31$81,714,49679.63%29.10%
                          $115 $122,338,780.32$68,985,47981.75%36.55%
                          $96 $102,367,583.85$57,723,94383.67%44.71%
                          $84 $84,698,793.26$47,760,70885.41%53.44%
                          $71 $69,066,972.61$38,946,09886.97%62.57%
                          $59 $55,237,287.14$31,147,69288.38%71.94%
                          $48 $43,001,975.29$24,248,33689.65%81.39%
                          $36 $32,177,227.60$18,144,38190.79%90.79%

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                            Posted: May 31, 2006, 7:21 am - IP Logged

                            The Megamillions jackpot has rolled over.  The cash value is $26.5M.  The advertised annuity value is $47M.

                            The average sales for a 5th draw is about $19.1.  If this is the number of tickets that sell, then the random propability for numbers of winners is as follows:

                             

                            089.70%
                            19.75%
                            20.53%
                            30.02%

                            The long term data suggests the following behavior over the long term:

                             

                             $470,741,476.33$265,445,88854.46%1.20%
                            (Average Annuity, M)$410,525,271.86$231,490,63958.42%2.19%
                            $315 $357,263,696.38$201,457,02962.16%3.76%
                            $262 $310,153,529.82$174,892,12965.67%6.04%
                            $247 $268,484,319.44$151,395,32568.94%9.20%
                            $217 $231,627,665.77$130,612,26771.97%13.35%
                            $186 $199,027,745.89$112,229,53474.75%18.55%
                            $158 $170,192,931.26$95,969,90377.31%24.82%
                            $135 $144,688,373.66$81,588,16679.64%32.10%
                            $115 $122,129,447.34$68,867,43881.76%40.31%
                            $96 $102,175,948.65$57,615,88283.69%49.30%
                            $84 $84,526,965.53$47,663,81785.42%58.91%
                            $71 $68,916,339.54$38,861,15886.99%68.96%
                            $59 $55,108,652.02$31,075,15788.40%79.27%
                            $48 $42,895,673.85$24,188,39489.67%89.67%

                            The accuracy is close to 10% right now, but is likely to improve in the middle draws if they occur.

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                              Posted: June 3, 2006, 6:39 am - IP Logged

                              The MM jackpot has been won.  The jackpot has been reset.    The average sales on a first draw is 16.0M.  If this is the amount of tickets sold, the probability of various numbers of winners is as follows:

                              091.30%
                              18.31%
                              20.38%
                              30.01%

                              The long term probability is as follows:

                               $470,744,657.73$265,447,68254.46%0.86%
                              (Average Annuity, M)$410,530,720.09$231,493,71258.42%1.59%
                              $315 $357,270,728.44$201,460,99462.16%2.72%
                              $262 $310,161,590.22$174,896,67465.67%4.37%
                              $247 $268,492,959.89$151,400,19768.94%6.66%
                              $217 $231,636,527.79$130,617,26471.96%9.66%
                              $186 $199,036,546.08$112,234,49774.75%13.42%
                              $158 $170,201,448.72$95,974,70677.31%17.95%
                              $135 $144,696,439.34$81,592,71479.64%23.22%
                              $115 $122,136,935.01$68,871,66181.76%29.15%
                              $96 $102,182,767.26$57,619,72783.68%35.66%
                              $84 $84,533,052.77$47,667,24985.42%42.61%
                              $71 $68,921,656.41$38,864,15686.99%49.88%
                              $59 $55,113,178.31$31,077,70988.40%57.34%
                              $48 $42,899,404.26$24,190,49789.67%64.86%
                              $36 $32,096,166.19$18,098,67190.81%72.33%
                              $27 $22,540,565.08$12,710,37491.82%79.65%
                              $17 $14,088,514.68$7,944,35792.73%86.75%
                              $12 $6,612,568.89$3,728,75493.54%93.54%

                                 
                                Page 14 of 24