MM has rolled over. The cash jackpot is $71.6M. The advertised annuity value is $122M. Eleventh round draws sell on average $34.9M tickets. If this is the number of tickets that sell, the probability of various numbers of winners is distributed as follows:
0 | 83.57% |
1 | 15.00% |
2 | 1.35% |
3 | 0.08% |
For the last draw, sales were above average. However for the entire run, sales a running just above historical lows for an 11 draw run. The modeling function I use, which is based on average values is running ahead of the actual performance. However, because of the return to higher sales, the model may still give an idea of the number of rollovers that are probable. For what it's worth, here's what it says:
Historical Average Advertised Annuity Jackpots | Model Calculated Annuity Prize | Model Calculated Cash Value | Single Draw Calculated Model Rollover Probability | Overall Calculated Model Rollover Probability |
| $594,715,461.60 | $349,029,730 | 44.70% | 0.63% |
| $518,058,814.49 | $304,041,075 | 49.24% | 1.42% |
| $450,610,517.51 | $264,456,664 | 53.62% | 2.88% |
| $391,264,421.14 | $229,627,316 | 57.78% | 5.36% |
$315 | $339,047,251.67 | $198,981,830 | 61.72% | 9.28% |
$262 | $293,102,649.51 | $172,017,621 | 65.40% | 15.04% |
$247 | $252,677,124.94 | $148,292,477 | 68.83% | 22.99% |
$217 | $217,107,700.89 | $127,417,306 | 71.98% | 33.41% |
$180 | $185,811,040.16 | $109,049,758 | 74.88% | 46.41% |
$153 | $158,273,878.71 | $92,888,604 | 77.53% | 61.98% |
$131 | $134,044,608.14 | $78,668,803 | 79.94% | 79.94% |