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# Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.

Topic closed. 352 replies. Last post 10 years ago by Prob988.

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Morrison, IL
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May 13, 2004
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 Posted: November 20, 2005, 11:54 pm - IP Logged

Damn!! I think both PB and MM are using very conservative estimates of their jackpots!!  MM should easily sell at least 15 million tickets for Tuesday's drawing!!

New Jersey
United States
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September 4, 2005
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 Posted: November 23, 2005, 10:24 am - IP Logged

The Megamillions has rolled over again, and the cash value has risen.  Based on sales, the cash value reached 10.5 million and is expected to rise to \$14.8M, the annuity value from \$16M to \$25M. This means that the lottery expects to sell about \$13.4M tickets.  However the lottery seems to be in a mode of underpromising and over delivering on jackpots these days.  (Maybe their own models are not working all that well because of the odds changes.)  I am going to guesstimate that the actual sales figure will be close to \$16M.  If so, the probability of various numbers of winners is represented here:

 0 91.30% 1 8.31% 2 0.38% 3 0.01%

For long term calculations I am still relying on the equation obtained by curve fitting data from averaging the two last (long) runs as posted above a few posts ago.  This equation does not exactly fit, as previously explained, the early data so well, but I believe that it should fit fairly well over the range of a large number of drawings - should that occur again.   Using this equation, I estimate the long term probability of matching the previous \$315M annuity jackpot as being slightly more than 7%, and of exceeding it as being around 4%.

Have a happy Thanksgiving.  May you buy a winning ticket.

New Jersey
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September 4, 2005
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 Posted: November 26, 2005, 1:27 pm - IP Logged

The Megamillions has rolled over again, and the cash value has risen.  Based on sales, the cash value reached 15.6 million and is expected to rise to \$20.8M, the annuity value from \$25M to \$35M. This means that the lottery expects to sell about \$16.4M tickets.  If true, then the probability of various is numbers of winners is given in the following table.

 0 91.09% 1 8.50% 2 0.40% 3 0.01%

For long term calculations I am still relying on the equation obtained by curve fitting data from averaging the two last (long) runs as posted above a few posts ago.  This equation does not exactly fit, as previously explained, the early data so well, but I believe that it should fit fairly well over the range of a large number of drawings - should that occur again.   Using this equation, I estimate the long term probability of matching the previous \$315M annuity jackpot as being slightly more than 8%, and of exceeding it as being around 4.5%.

Have a happy Thanksgiving.  May you buy a winning ticket

New Jersey
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 Posted: November 26, 2005, 9:00 pm - IP Logged

I need to correct my last post.  The computational long term rollover based on the generated equation is 7.5% approximately for reaching a jackpot comparable to the \$315M jackpot of the last run.  The computational probability of exceeding that jackpot is close to 5%.

Based on the actual averages of previous jackpots, the probability of matching is 8%, and of exceeding it, 4.5%.  (These are the values posted in my last post.)

I am slightly more confident in the computational values than in the average historical values, although the difference is small.

The probability in either case is relatively small.

The probability that the jackpot will reach \$100M however is close to 48%.

Just for reference there is a 1% chance of a \$500M + jackpot.

New Jersey
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 Posted: December 2, 2005, 10:08 am - IP Logged

The MegaMillions jackpot has been won.  We can expect that the reset jackpot will sell around 14.5 million tickets.  The probability of various numbers of winners is as is given in the following table:

 0 92.34% 1 7.36% 2 0.29% 3 0.01%
mid-Ohio
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March 24, 2001
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 Posted: December 2, 2005, 10:32 am - IP Logged

Has MegaMillions ever been won at the starting level?  It's rare if it has.

* you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket *

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January 19, 2002
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 Posted: December 2, 2005, 11:29 am - IP Logged

Has MegaMillions ever been won at the starting level?  It's rare if it has.

From what I see it happened once on 7/27/04

It has been won after just one rollover 3 times from what I can tell

10/7/03

2/18/03

5/24/02

New Jersey
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 Posted: December 2, 2005, 11:41 am - IP Logged

If the probability of there being no winner at an opening jackpot is always around 92%, there is a 50% probability of there being around 8 starting jackpots before one is won on the first draw.

Note that there really aren't that many starting jackpots in a year.  There are many more drawings on jackpots that contain at least one roll.  By my quick count, there have been only 7 reset jackpots in 2005

Note also that it always possible for a jackpot to be won on a first draw.  It may not be probable, but it is always possible.

United States
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June 2, 2005
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 Posted: December 2, 2005, 1:34 pm - IP Logged

Prob988, I think the jackpot will roll. When people win smaller jackpots of 100 million or less on the previous run, I predict the jackpot for Tuesday 12/6 will be 15 million. If it doesn't roll, it will be a first under the new matrix.

New Jersey
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 Posted: December 3, 2005, 9:59 am - IP Logged

The Megamillions has rolled over again, and the cash value has risen.  Based on sales, the cash value reached 5.4 million and is expected to rise to \$9.4, the annuity value from \$12 to \$16M.  The last \$16M annuity jackpot sold approximately \$16.4M in tickets.

If this is repeated on this run the probabilty of various numbers of winners is given in the following table:

 0 91.11% 1 8.48% 2 0.39% 3 0.01%

New Jersey
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 Posted: December 8, 2005, 8:36 pm - IP Logged

The Megamillions has rolled over again, and the cash value has risen.  Based on sales, the cash value reached 10.5 million and is expected to rise to \$14.7M, the annuity value from \$16M to \$25M. This means that the lottery expects to sell about \$13.4M tickets.    I am going to guesstimate that the actual sales figure will be the same as the last \$25M annuity jackpot, 15.8M.  If so, the probability of various numbers of winners is represented here:

 0 91.40% 1 8.22% 2 0.37% 3 0.01%

New Jersey
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 Posted: December 10, 2005, 6:34 pm - IP Logged

The Megamillions has rolled over again, and the cash value has risen.  Based on sales, the cash value reached about 15 million and is expected to rise to \$19.5M, the annuity value from \$25M to \$33M. This means that the lottery expects to sell about \$15M tickets.    I am going to guesstimate that the actual sales figure will be the same as the last \$35M annuity jackpot, 18M, which is consistent with the recent history of jackpots in the low \$30M annuity range.  If so, the probability of various numbers of winners is represented here:

 0 90.26% 1 9.25% 2 0.47% 3 0.02% 4 0.00%

New Jersey
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 Posted: December 14, 2005, 8:29 am - IP Logged

The Megamillions has rolled over again, and the annuity jackpot has reached \$43M.  If the actual sales figure is the same as the last \$42M annuity jackpot, it will come in at \$18.1M in sales.  If so, the probability of various numbers of winners is represented here:

 0 90.21% 1 9.29% 2 0.48% 3 0.02%

New Jersey
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 Posted: December 14, 2005, 10:03 am - IP Logged

It may be time to touch on long term probabilities.  From the equation I generated earlier in this thread to describe the behavior of lottery jackpots, one can estimate the probability of rollovers.  If this equation is predictive, I estimate that the run has a 52% probability of reaching a jackpot in the 100-110M annuity range.  It has roughly an 8% chance of reaching the \$315M annuity jackpot it reached in November of this year, and a 5% chance of exceeding it.

New Jersey
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 Posted: December 17, 2005, 2:47 am - IP Logged

The Megamillions jackpot has rolled over and the annuity value is now \$53M.  This matches the jackpot at this point in the previous \$315M annuity run, which was also \$53M.  That jackpot sold \$21.0M in tickets.  If sales are similar for this jackpot, the following table gives the probability for various numbers of winners:

 0 88.74% 1 10.61% 2 0.63% 3 0.03%

For the long term, I would estimate using the equation generated from the last two large runs that the probability is 48% that the jackpot will ultimately reach something close to a \$130M annuity value.  I estimate a 9% chance it will reach something like a \$315M annuity value as reached this past November and a 6% chance of rising even higher.    There is a 1% chance of a \$500M annuity jackpot.

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