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"A" vs. LP Quick Pick Generator -- Final Wrap-Up

Topic closed. 23 replies. Last post 11 years ago by lottaloot.

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Chief Bottle Washer
New Jersey
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May 31, 2000
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Posted: December 1, 2005, 11:17 am - IP Logged

Here are the final results of the challenge in the topic located at http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/123472.

Even though the topic of "Arlene" (don) is forever closed at Lottery Post, I am presenting these results to show definitively what a crock it is to just get a bunch of numbers from someone, as opposed to getting a system that can generate your OWN numbers.

To the small minority of people who are tempted to post a bunch of BS heated posts about this, don't bother.  If you have to go into your basement and shout obscenities at the walls to get out your frustration, then that would be much better than posting garbage here.

For a recap of this topic, I took "Arlene's" (Don's) numbers that "she" claims are so "hot" in various states, and I entered those numbers in "Arlene's" (Don's) "hottest" states.  Apparently "she" has 30 numbers -- 3 groups of 10 numbers -- which "she" says are just hitting like crazy in those five states.

I plugged those 30 numbers into the predictions board here at Lottery Post, in "her" five "hottest" states, for seven straight days.  Therefore, the total number of picks in the predictions board for "her" great numbers was:

30 numbers x 5 states x 2 plays per day (midday and evening) x 7 days = 2,100 total picks (300 picks per day)

"Arlene's" picks were entered under my test account at Lottery Post, appropriately called "test".

I then went to Lottery Post's trusty Quick Picks generator and told it to generate 30 Pick 3 Quick Picks.  I took those 30 numbers and plugged them into exactly the same states, games, and days as "Arlene's" numbers.

"Arlene" really has the big advantage in this test, because after all, we are using "her" quantity of predictions (30), and we are playing in "her" hottest states.  But for the sake of the challenge, I was willing to give "Arlene" the advantage of those things, still confident that random numbers could do just as well as the numbers that people actually pay "her" (don) for.

To any fair-minded person, there could not be a more objective way of testing these numbers.

The 7-day test period is now finished, and I'll now present the results for all to see.  (Simulated online prize method assumes a $.25 per ticket wager, and prizes are calculated using the 900 to 1 payout for a straight hit.)


"Arlene's" Results

DateSummary of HitsLottery Post Prize Method  Online Prize Method 
WagerPrizesNetWagerPrizesNet
Nov. 24
  • Maryland Midday Pick 3 6-Way Box
  • New York Midday Numbers 6-Way Box
  • Pennsylvania Daily Number 6-Way Box
  • Virginia Pick 3 Straight + 6-Way Box
$300$410+$110$75$375.00+$300.00
Nov. 25
  • Maryland Midday Pick 3 Straight + 6-Way Box
  • New York Numbers 6-Way Box
$300$330+$30$75$300.00+$225.00
Nov. 26
  • Maryland Midday Pick 3 6-Way Box
  • New York Numbers Straight + 6-Way Box
$300$330+$30$75$300.00+$225.00
Nov. 27
  • Pennsylvania Midday Daily Number 6-Way Box   
$300$40-$260$75$37.50-$37.50
Nov. 28
  • Maryland Pick 3 3-Way Box
  • Virginia Pick 3 6-Way Box
$300$120-$180$75$112.50+$37.50
Nov. 29
  • Virginia Pick 3 6-Way Box
$300$40-$260$75$37.50-$37.50
Nov. 30
  • New York Midday Numbers 6-Way Box
$300$40-$260$75$37.50-$37.50
Total
  • 13 Total Hits (3 straights)
$2,100$1,310-$790$525$1,200.00+$675.00


Looks pretty good for "Arlene", eh? Well, read on to see what the famous Lottery Post Quick Picks generator was able to do...


Lottery Post Quick Pick Results

DateSummary of HitsLottery Post Prize Method  Online Prize Method 
WagerPrizesNetWagerPrizesNet
Nov. 24
  • Missouri Midday Pick 3 6-Way Box
  • Missouri Pick 3 6-Way Box
  • Pennsylvania Daily Number 6-Way Box
  • Virginia Pick 3 6-Way Box
$300$160-$140$75$150.00+$75.00
Nov. 25
  • Maryland Midday Pick 3 Straight + 6-Way Box
$300$290-$10$75$262.50+$187.50
Nov. 26
  • Missouri Midday Pick 3 6-Way Box
  • Pennsylvania Daily Number 6-Way Box
$300$80-$220$75$75.00$0.00
Nov. 27
  • Maryland Pick 3 6-Way Box
  • Missouri Pick 3 6-Way Box
$300$80-$220$75$75.00$0.00
Nov. 28
  • New York Midday Numbers 6-Way Box
$300$40-$260$75$37.50-$37.50
Nov. 29
  • Maryland Pick 3 Straight + 6-Way Box
  • Missouri Pick 3 6-Way Box
  • Pennsylvania Daily Number 6-Way Box
  • Pennsylvania Daily Number 6-Way Box
$300$410+$110$75$375.00+$300.00
Nov. 30
  • Maryland Pick 3 6-Way Box
  • Maryland Pick 3 Straight + 6-Way Box
$300$330+$30$75$300.00+$225.00
Total
  • 16 Total Hits (3 straights)
$2,100$1,390-$710$525$1,275.00+$750.00



The Bottom Line

So, what does all of this prove?

It proves that anyone who paid money for someone to regurgitate some numbers to them should have instead taken that money and spent it on more numbers.

In both the simulated Lottery Post wager model, as well as the online model, the Lottery Post Quick Picks Generator came out on top.

If I had used a larger wager than $.25 for the online method, the difference would be even more pronounced.  (I took it easy on "Arlene".)

Given a different stretch of time, it's quite possible that it could have come out the other way around, so the simple fact about all of this is that there is no magic in buying a set of numbers from somebody!

Most seasoned lottery players at Lottery Post will tell you that same fact, that there is no substitute for hard work when it comes to picking numbers, and the best results are achieved through your own systems and analysis, not through the "magic bullet" theory that these "numbers newsletters" throw at you.

 

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    Poway CA (San Diego County)
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    Posted: December 1, 2005, 11:58 am - IP Logged

    I was confident that this test would prove what I have said for a long time.  When someone asks me how to win at Pick 3 (and I get the question often), I tell them to use my "Playing Card" method.  Take out the face cards, shuffle well, and deal out sets of 3 cards.  The Ace is 1 and the rest are their face value.  There have been a couple of people that have tried it and posted their numbers (I think to prove me wrong!) and they had winning numbers!  Right now I'm spending most of the day and night working on trying to find the "secret" method that will work on Pick 3 all the time.  I haven't found it yet! 

    Thank you, Todd for taking so much of your time to prove that NOBODY has the secret to picking Pick 3 numbers...not yet that is!! LOL

     


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      Posted: December 1, 2005, 12:01 pm - IP Logged

      Laughs..so much for forbidden, eh?? 

      PS: Under Todd's section notice that he counts more then 1 box win when he gets 1..

      ie. nov 29th..he counted 2 box wins for PA...and on nov 30th he counts MD as 2 box wins...You can only count 1 box per state or  straight/box for a state...when playing online it makes no differeence in how the box appeared..6 ways 24 ways etc..it all pays the same..but you can only count a box 1 x...

       

       

        Todd's avatar - Cylon 2.gif
        Chief Bottle Washer
        New Jersey
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        Posted: December 1, 2005, 12:09 pm - IP Logged

        Laughs..so much for forbidden, eh?? 

        PS: Under Todd's section notice that he counts more then 1 box win when he gets 1..

        ie. nov 29th..he counted 2 box wins for PA...and on nov 30th he counts MD as 2 box wins...You can only count 1 box per state or  straight/box for a state...when playing online it makes no differeence in how the box appeared..6 ways 24 ways etc..it all pays the same..but you can only count a box 1 x...

         

         

        * Laughs harder than you *

        You obviously are so blinded by the hypnosis that don has put you under that you didn't take the time to research your post.

        Take, for example, your comment about "how can I possibly win more than once in Maryland on the same date?"  *Still laughing*  Well, because the Lottery Post Quick Picks Generator provided both 6-4-2 and 4-2-6, and the results on that date were 4-2-6.

        So, I think it's time to start looking in the mirror and see what's going on within yourself.  Stop trying to defend a myth, and come back to Earth.

         

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          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
          mid-Ohio
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          Posted: December 1, 2005, 12:20 pm - IP Logged

          I think the LP RNG is a good way to test any system weather it's your own or one you purchased.  It hard to beat a good RNG and if a system can't beat it, it's worthless because any system that is designed intelligently should be able to do better than a system with no intelligences.  A lot of system out there were given a lot of thought but they lack any intelligences in their design.

           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
             
                       Evil Looking       

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            Alabama
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            Posted: December 1, 2005, 12:21 pm - IP Logged


            Todd said:

            "Most seasoned lottery players at Lottery Post will tell you that same fact, that there is no substitute for hard work when it comes to picking numbers, and the best results are achieved through your own systems and analysis, not through the "magic bullet" theory that these "numbers newsletters" throw at you."

            This needs to be repeated often. Too many people are tempted by dreams of quick and easy winnings - "just give me the winning numbers," they'll say.

            I've won more money by using my own systems.


            "It proves that anyone who paid money for someone to regurgitate some numbers to them should have instead taken that money and spent it on more numbers.

            In both the simulated Lottery Post wager model, as well as the online model, the Lottery Post Quick Picks Generator came out on top."

            Well said. QP's are as easy as it comes and many people have won with them, so it's better to buy your own, rather that paying someone else to generate numbers.

            Thanks for doing this test run on the numbers!

             

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              Todd's avatar - Cylon 2.gif
              Chief Bottle Washer
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              Posted: December 1, 2005, 12:33 pm - IP Logged

              MrBobb,

              I'm very happy to see the particular quotes you picked up on.  Those are key points.

              There are many people at Lottery Post who have developed tremendous spreadsheets and workouts.  They spend a good deal of time thinking about their workouts and testing new theories.  These are the people who tend to do the best in the predictions statistics pages.  The stats don't lie!

              For example, check out how well Sandy K is doing, with $90,755 wagered, and a $106,340 payout this month!  And that's using the regular state payouts, not the online model.  Just tremendous!  Or see how Rip has risen near the top of each of the 4 stat categories, with his Lotto picks.  I'll stop there, because I don't want to leave anyone out.

              The point is, those who work hardest and stick with it tend to do the best.

               

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                Alabama
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                Posted: December 1, 2005, 1:02 pm - IP Logged


                Todd said:

                "I'm very happy to see the particular quotes you picked up on. Those are key points."

                Thanks! Those are indeed key points and more lottery players would be wise to take them to heart.   Their time and money would be better spent on using the tools available to Lottery Post Premium Members.



                "There are many people at Lottery Post who have developed tremendous spreadsheets and workouts. They spend a good deal of time thinking about their workouts and testing new theories. These are the people who tend to do the best in the predictions statistics pages. The stats don't lie!"

                Indeed. We have many Lottery Masters here. Do you think any of them are looking for a Padawan Learner?!   



                "The point is, those who work hardest and stick with it tend to do the best."

                Amen! While there have been many people who have have won various lottery games by simply using QP's, many, many more QPer's have come up empty handed.   In the short time I've been here, the record indicates that using some sort of system pays best. Now, I do play some QP's with my selected numbers periodically, but they consist of only 10 to 20 percent of the lottery budget.

                 

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                  bellyache's avatar - 64x64a9wg

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                  Posted: December 1, 2005, 1:28 pm - IP Logged

                  "Most seasoned lottery players at Lottery Post will tell you that same fact, that there is no substitute for hard work when it comes to picking numbers, and the best results are achieved through your own systems and analysis, not through the "magic bullet" theory that these "numbers newsletters" throw at you."

                  ITA with this! I have my own system that I use for picking numbers and although it needs some work, I'd rather do the work to come up with something that can work for me then pay someone else who "claims" that they can give the winning numbers for a fee. I like how the results turned out. It seems to show that a bunch of RNG are just as good as any paid numbers. =)

                  Dance like no one is watching.

                    LANTERN's avatar - kilroy 28_173_reasonably_small.jpg
                    Tx
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                    Posted: December 1, 2005, 2:29 pm - IP Logged

                    My own private 7 days test with my own 30 numbers started on 25 Nov and would had ended tonight with the night draws, but I abandoned it a few days early, I think.

                    I have not counted to see how many hits it would already have up to this point, but I think that even without any of today's possible hits if any, it might already have had more than 13 or maybe even more than 16 hits, since the hits would all have been played just boxed, I only count them as boxed, even whatever straight hits I might have so far up to this point, with would be at least 2 straight hits maybe more.

                    I of course didn't play any of the numbers as I never do yet.

                    If anybody cares to count the total boxed and or straight hits, wait untill late tonight and take a look at the numbers on my locked pick 3 post from a few days ago where the combos are posted and then look at the winning results from those 5 states from last friday up to the night draws tonight (7 days) and if you want to, let us know how many boxed and straight hits the numbers had for the 7 days for those 5 states.

                    If I wanted to play for money I would had developed something very much better than that.

                    Even if I got more total hits (And I don't know that for sure)I am not very happy with the results of the first few days.

                    But again, it was something that I put together in just a few minutes, What do you want for a pennie ?

                    Go to my thread here at the Pick 3 Forum with last post dated 27 Nov and on that thread is where the 30 combos are.

                    BibleOnline  ParishesOnline  ChristianRadioOnline   MassOnline   Mass

                    "Ten measures of beauty descended to the world, nine were taken by Jerusalem."

                      LANTERN's avatar - kilroy 28_173_reasonably_small.jpg
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                      Posted: December 1, 2005, 2:56 pm - IP Logged

                      Is incredible, I think that it is against statistics, but for the last few days those 5 states and maybe most of the others also have been avoiding that particular group of 30 combos as if they were the plague or had it.

                      It might have been a good thing that I finished the test early, I was right that no more hits would come, I am by now very aware of the state lotteries' "Modus Operandi".

                       

                      BibleOnline  ParishesOnline  ChristianRadioOnline   MassOnline   Mass

                      "Ten measures of beauty descended to the world, nine were taken by Jerusalem."

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                        Posted: December 1, 2005, 4:21 pm - IP Logged

                        I think the LP RNG is a good way to test any system weather it's your own or one you purchased.  It hard to beat a good RNG and if a system can't beat it, it's worthless because any system that is designed intelligently should be able to do better than a system with no intelligences.  A lot of system out there were given a lot of thought but they lack any intelligences in their design.





                         

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                          Posted: December 1, 2005, 4:39 pm - IP Logged

                          In my opinion the challenge was just for fun, and not the reality to Arlene's system. The 30 numbers were never to be played all the time, every day.

                          It's clearly stated that you should start with either the regular, or top five picks, and work up your way to playing more, or certain groups, depending on the circumstances.

                          If it sounds as though I'm saying this after the fact, just do a search and you'll see me writing about this long before this "challenge".

                          Doubles are not to be played unless certain things happen before and after. This last sentence is just an example of one of a dozen or so reccommendations which are made.

                          Finally the "challenge" was flawed because Todd chose to use her five states, instead of his own. The five states are part of her system. I can just hear it coming...more excuses....well it's not excuses. Why pick your own 30 sets of numbers, to prove that they are as good or better, and then play them in the same states of your opponent? Wouldn't someone pick their numbers and their states to prove that their system works in it's entirety?

                            No system will win all the time, but if it is broken down and only certain parts are used (as specified ), then success will be more often.

                          I haven't done the workout but I think, just playing the top five and maybe the regular picks, that I would be in a profitable position.

                            Todd's avatar - Cylon 2.gif
                            Chief Bottle Washer
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                            Posted: December 1, 2005, 10:56 pm - IP Logged

                            Yes, I know you had sour grapes from the beginning, pacattack.  But you're obviously not an expert on objective comparisons, because everything you're saying is just wrong.

                            Saying that a better comparison would be to use different states is just plain wacky.

                            Also, I know that as soon as I posted details of the challenge, you started immediately making excuses for "Arlene", even though nothing had taken place at that point.  I know you were scared to see her numbers shamed (which they were).

                            Particularly interesting is the fact that even though you make a bunch of BScomments about how she doesn't play this, or doesn't play that, YOU were the one who specified that the 30 numbers were the right ones to play.  And YOU told me which states were her "hottest".  Anyone can easily go back and see for themselves.

                            You can write in the BIGGEST FONT IN THE WORLD, but that does not make anything you say more important, more noticable, or more correct. 

                            Instead of looking at the results and wondering aloud if you could possibly be wrong, you're going to stubbornly refuse to listen. 

                            I'll be interested in what you have to say when you show that you have the slightest bit of an open mind.  Until then, no thanks.

                             

                            P.S. It's laughable that you're claiming the challenge was "just for fun"!  Does any logical-minded person think for one minute that you would be reacting that way if "Arlene's" numbers came out on top?  Ha!

                             

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                              Todd's avatar - Cylon 2.gif
                              Chief Bottle Washer
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                              Posted: December 1, 2005, 11:00 pm - IP Logged

                              Is incredible, I think that it is against statistics, but for the last few days those 5 states and maybe most of the others also have been avoiding that particular group of 30 combos as if they were the plague or had it.

                              It might have been a good thing that I finished the test early, I was right that no more hits would come, I am by now very aware of the state lotteries' "Modus Operandi".

                               

                              That's a good reason why it's important to test over several days, not just a few (or one).

                              This challenge was a great example of that.  Remember after the first day it started, and pacattack and dman start shouting from the rooftops about how great "Arlene's" numbers were -- all of the sudden confident in "victory" after starting off complaining about how "unfair" the challenge was? 

                              Just think if the test was only one day long, and people didn't have the ability to see how skewed that one day was.

                              Once the concept of time shines a bright light on things, concepts start to be clearer.

                               

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