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Anyone else thinking of Euromillions?

Topic closed. 50 replies. Last post 11 years ago by JAG331.

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Think's avatar - lightbulb
Marquette, MI
United States
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Posted: January 3, 2006, 10:30 pm - IP Logged

Oh, I suppose I should have pointed out 350,000,000*.36=126,000,000

                                                                 370,000,000*.36=133,000,000

 

That is about the equiv MM Cash in MI

That's approximately amount you'd get from the lottery.  You'd owe a lot more taxes after that, but I guess you'd discover that after you win!

If you're trying to say that my estimate was off, I supposed it could be off by a little, but arguing that point is not very worthwhile, because you're missing the forest for the trees.

I also disagree that it would be "tricky" to leave the money offshore.

Actually that .36 multiplier is for figuring the approximate after tax take home cash in Michigan if you don't live in a Mich city that collects income tax.

I have measured that multiplier and it has been as high as .384 depending on interest rates.  Now it is somewhere in the .34 to .36 range.  That is calculated by going to the official Ohio lottery web sight and multiplying the guestimated cash amount by the .611 take home percent.  The .611 is reached by taking the max fed rate of .35 and adding the max Mich rate of .039 and getting .389 for the Government which means you would get .611 in Michigan. You then take your after tax amount and divide by advertised Jackpot to get your multiplier number

That is the ballpark figure and it assumes you live in Michigan and you are not in a city that collects income tax AND you dont owe the government any other money that they would collect!

If you live in another state add .35 to your states max tax rate (and any max city income tax rate you have to pay) and then multiply by the cash guesstimate on the Ohio lottery web page and you will get a close Ballpark of your after tax amount...it really is not that hard!

    TheGameGrl's avatar - character catafly.jpg
    A long and winding road
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    Posted: January 4, 2006, 8:38 pm - IP Logged

    It took a few re-reads to finally see the true humor in baristaexpress post. Thanks for that laugh!

    Seriously....Stick with a tax advisor and financial expert for advice on overseas lottery win procedures.

    Best to all who have their tickets for this lottery draw!

     

    ~~Is it true, Is it kind,Is it necessary. ~~~

    pa:888,4445,6132,4444,8008

      anonymous77's avatar - moon
      Seoul
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      Posted: January 5, 2006, 12:44 pm - IP Logged

      Todd points out the amount of MM/PB jackpot which might be comparable to that of the current Euro Millions, and Think talks about those figures in Todd’s post recalculated as after-tax cash, suggesting that at that figure MM might be more attractive. I agree with each of both Todd and Think, to a certain extent. Honestly, I think that two are standing not so far from each other as they might look.

      First of all, Think’s multiplier number (~.35=cash value ratio multiplied by (1-tax rate)) is very convenient and useful for the purpose of judging the attractiveness of jackpots, and what is being kept in my memory ever since I got used to be familiar with the unique feature of US jackpots, ANNUITY.

      Next, as with some LP members, I do have an excel spreadsheet in which expected values of worldwide major jackpot games can be (re)calculated handily whenever I change some parameters like the amount of jackpot, tax rate if applicable, per-ticket price, all the odds, and so on. While reading Todd's post regarding the amount of MM/PB jackpot comparable to  this Friday’s EM at $100+M, I tried to change some parameters. After a few trials, when I set the ticket price at $2.50 and varied the amount MM/PB jackpots, those numbers in my spreadsheet were very close to what Todd indicated. Specifically, at $2.50 each, MM needs $373M and PB $365M so they can have expected value of .47, which is comparable to the Euro Millions drawing on January 6.

      If one can buy MM ticket for $1 at a local convenience store, the scenario would be much different. In that case, my spreadsheet indicates $111M MM annuity jackpot and $105M PB annuity, at which MM, PB, and EM all have comparable expected value per dollar spent of around .47>


      <Assumptions in the spreadsheet calculation>

      - MM/PB ticket=$2.50, EM ticket=$5.00

      - only 25% federal tax is applicable in MM prizes over $600 while no tax at all in EM prizes.

      - In this coming Friday night drawing, EM pays $500,000 for the second, and $100,000 for the third, which I think would be reasonable. Lower-tier prize amounts were extrapolated based on a few previous drawings. Please note that all EM prizes are pari-mutuel.

      - EM jackpot of $104M, just a few more M than USA mega. Considering the past pattern of UK's conservative EM jackpot estimates, I bet confidently that this Friday's EM jackpot would exceed at least $105M. In fact, most other countries including France, the host country, advertise the estimated jackpot to be 88 million euros, which is directly converted into $106M using XE.com currency converter. <http://www.xe.com/ucc/> <http://www.fdjeux.com/jeux/euromillions/euromillions_s_tirage.php>

      In short, I think that, to understand those numbers in Todd’s post in this thread, one needs to take the possibly implicit MM/PB ticket-price, which I estimate is likely to be around $2.5 each, into account. On the other hand, to understand exactly Think’s numbers within the context of the issue one needs to take into consideration the difference in the odds between MM/PB and EM, and probably the difference in ticket prices available between in-state and out-of-state players as well, into account. Then, I think, a gap between what Todd and Think talked about would disappear or diminish. That’s why I am saying that the two posters, Todd and Think, are standing on the issue not so far from each other.


      Good luck to any LP member that plays Euro Millions and/or Mega Millions this Friday night!

       

        Todd's avatar - Cylon 2.gif
        Chief Bottle Washer
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        Posted: January 5, 2006, 1:21 pm - IP Logged

        That was a very good analysis, anonymous77.

         

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          BILOXI, MISSISSIPPI
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          Posted: January 5, 2006, 4:26 pm - IP Logged

          euro is still the big one this week      it will take pb or mm weeks to get to this euromillions size           also you can set up a blind trust to pick up the cash    $20 is about what most people would spend if it was a 300 million pb jackpot 

            Think's avatar - lightbulb
            Marquette, MI
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            Posted: January 5, 2006, 10:23 pm - IP Logged

            OK, to clarify the advertised Mega Millions jackpot is 15,000,000

            The guestimate on the Ohio page is

            Mega Millions Cash Option Value:$8,949,885

            8,949,885 * .611 = 5,468,379 after tax cash

            5,468,379/15,000,000 = .3645586

            350,000,000 * .3645586 = 127,595,510

            euromillions cash = 100,110,000

            100,110,000 * .611 = 61,167,210 after tax

            61,167,210/.3645586 = 167,784,301

            15,000,000 * .3645586 = 5,468,379

            167,784,301 * .3645586  = 61,167,210 = (100,110,000 * .611 = 61,167,210 )

            Follow?

             

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              BILOXI, MISSISSIPPI
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              Posted: January 8, 2006, 5:58 pm - IP Logged

              time for new math  add all big us lottos  find the cash sum and euromillions is still bigger    i've got my passport ready

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                New Jersey
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                Posted: January 8, 2006, 8:07 pm - IP Logged

                Now Think, You got to be kidding me right? How in Gods name is the IRS going to know anything about any US citizen winning the lottery in another country? (This I'd like to know, that is if you have any answer that would amount to a pile of salt) The IRS isn't going to know not a thing, unless the winner opens their mouth or tries to bring the money into the US without declaring it when going through customs! Only a dummy/idiot would do something like that! The smart thing to do is to leave it over there as not to have to claim the win to the IRS! Besides with that kind of money you will be on vacation traveling around Europe with the family! There is nothing in US Tax law that says you can't have an off-shore bank account! The IRS only goes after you for using those funds from said account to live on while living here in the US and not claiming said money as income on your taxes!! That's called tax evasion! So if you don't use the money to live on while in the US it can't be called income, now can it? No it can't!

                I know I wouldn't bring any money back to the US so I could be taxed on my good fortune of winning the Euro Millions! 

                Of course, if one attempts to conceal income from the IRS, the technical word for that is tax evasion.  People go to prison for tax evasion, but you are right, anyone is free to risk ignoring the laws.  Assuming one is not caught evading the law, one may profit by doing so.  I suppose that many criminals are not ever caught and do indeed avoid paying a price for their crimes.

                Of course an American who wins the Euromillions is not likely to be an international secret.  The IRS might find out.  They might read a newspaper with the account of a win.  However, I will admit that our government is completely incompetent, has no respect for either the law or the truth, and misses just about everything these days.  Therefore it is possible that one will indeed avoid criminal sanctions, especially if one is willing to add bribery to the crime of tax evasion. 

                 It's like living in Somalia.  You can make your own laws up.  The United States is probably not a great place to keep one's money, as respect for the law is way down.  The stability of institutions, including financial institutions depends very much on respect for the law.  It's probably best to keep one's money overseas, especially as the United States has recently been purchased by China, holder of all that debt that everyone ignores.

                 

                  dvdiva's avatar - 8ball

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                  Posted: January 9, 2006, 3:39 am - IP Logged

                  On the issue of tax, I'm pretty sure it would not be taxed in the US as long as the money stays out of the US. I don't know if corporations or trusts can claim tickets in the UK or not. I do know that if the winner is from the UK then they get to meet with some advisors as part of the win. You would have to consult an international tax advisor here in the states.

                  Any transfer of money, even on a debit card, could be a big problem if it's not declared as income to the IRS if you spend it here. It would certainly be worth it to have your investments abroad if they are tax free. 

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                    Greenwich, CT
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                    Posted: January 9, 2006, 9:48 am - IP Logged

                    $123 million for Friday the 13th!

                    Lucky to have a rollover last Friday with 2-6-9-14-26 / 4-5

                    Get your tickets now!

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                      BILOXI, MISSISSIPPI
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                      Posted: January 9, 2006, 11:04 am - IP Logged

                      PROB 998 WHATS THE ODDS of a roll over and winner      the irs who cares my party would last years across the pond and it would be sir fx

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                        Greenwich, CT
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                        Posted: January 13, 2006, 9:50 am - IP Logged

                        Drawing in six hours!  Maybe someone will always remember they won the jackpot today!  Does Friday the 13th carry the same stigma in Europe?

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                          Virginia
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                          Posted: January 13, 2006, 9:58 am - IP Logged

                          Drawing in six hours!  Maybe someone will always remember they won the jackpot today!  Does Friday the 13th carry the same stigma in Europe?

                          Well, if it does we'll be looking at a nice rollover for next week.

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                            New Jersey
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                            Posted: January 13, 2006, 8:02 pm - IP Logged

                            Drawing in six hours!  Maybe someone will always remember they won the jackpot today!  Does Friday the 13th carry the same stigma in Europe?

                            Yes.

                            The origin of the concept of unlucky thirteen is a Christian concept, based on the presence of 13 diners at the Last Supper.

                            Friday is also considered unlucky because it was said to be the day of The Crucifixion.  Thus the conception of Friday the Thirteenth as an "unlucky day" has European origins.

                            Thirteen was considered a lucky number in other cultures, including the Mayan culture. 

                            Many numerologists - numerology being a mystical approach to numbers - discovered concepts that would be important in serious mathematics.    It is reasonable to assume most medieval mathematicians, including the great mathematician Fibonacci, who lived in the twelfth century and who introduced the concept of Arabic decimals to Europe, embraced some numerological conceptions, including the conception of "lucky numbers."    Fibonacci was the discoverer of a famous series of numbers that are important in many fields, are intimately involved the construction of spirals, spirals being of importance in many sciences.   The ratio of two successive Fibonacci numbers  as they become infinitely large, approaches the so called Golden Ratio which has often been associated with beauty and luck.  Thirteen is a member of the Fibonacci series which goes like this 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21...

                            In my own family the number 13 was considered lucky, but not by me. 

                            I don't believe in "lucky numbers."  To me, while all numbers have features that are individually interesting, none is "luckier" than the other.  Specifically when one is discussing lottery numbers, I think any lottery outcome is more likely than any other.  The lucky person will simply be the person whose numbers are drawn.  By definition such numbers will be lucky merely for having been on the winning ticket.

                             

                             

                             

                             

                             

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                              Maine
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                              Posted: January 13, 2006, 8:46 pm - IP Logged

                              Thank you Prob988. I like your well informed take on all of these subjects and agree with you. I think that any income you make as a US citizen is taxable but I would love to believe it wasn't if you kept out of the US. Of course, if I won 125 million I'm sure I could find and afford a clever tax lawyer to conserve more than less. Do you play EuroMillions and if so do you have a system? Thanks again for the insights,   alx