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Anyone else thinking of Euromillions?

Topic closed. 50 replies. Last post 11 years ago by JAG331.

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new delhi
India
Member #22145
September 20, 2005
174 Posts
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Posted: January 13, 2006, 8:51 pm - IP Logged

good morning...its rolled over..didn't get a required match..its about 80 million pounds now..TAX FREE!!

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    New Jersey
    United States
    Member #21206
    September 4, 2005
    949 Posts
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    Posted: January 13, 2006, 10:27 pm - IP Logged

    Thank you Prob988. I like your well informed take on all of these subjects and agree with you. I think that any income you make as a US citizen is taxable but I would love to believe it wasn't if you kept out of the US. Of course, if I won 125 million I'm sure I could find and afford a clever tax lawyer to conserve more than less. Do you play EuroMillions and if so do you have a system? Thanks again for the insights,   alx

    No, I don't play Euromillions, because the expectation value, the value of the prize per dollar played, is lower, as one has to pay fees.  I choose my plays by expectation value, pretax.  Determining expectation values was why I originally began using the poisson distribution I post in my two probability threads.  Later, for interest, I began to develop some schemes for determining the likelihood of large jackpots.  This helps me to plan my purchases better.

    I also don't like to trust third parties with my wager.  There is too much potential for abuse.  This doesn't mean that brokers are dishonest, though some are of questionable legality, just that I don't see an advantage in adding the potential for another layer of difficulty.

    I have been to Europe many times and don't play lotteries there.  I'd rather not deal with international complications, nor the vagueries of international tax law.  Also it is a pain in the butt to try to collect on small prizes - so much so that I am unlikely to do it at all.  This effectively reduces my expectation value.

    I wait for big US jackpots, which occur with pretty regular frequency.

    I do have a lottery system.  Many years ago, I tracked numbers in the California lottery to build a sense of which numbers are more frequently played by people who choose their own numbers.  I scored numbers by the number of winners produced at a given level of given sales tracking the frequency of the number of winners for all prizes - weighted by sales and probabilities of winning - attached to each number in the matrix.  As one might expect, with a few exceptions, numbers appearing in birthdays were likely to increase the numbers of winners.  The more frequently a number was played - according to this score - the less inclined I was to play it.  This means that if my numbers came up, I would be slightly less likely to have to share my prize - meaning a higher expectation value.

    I started this system from the outset of a particular matrix being used in California, and stopped collecting data when I moved out of California.  I wrote a computer program to generate the scores.

    However, I always choose my numbers so that I play the maximum number of numbers that are possible for a set of tickets.  Thus for MegaMillions, ignoring the Mega Ball, if I bought 5 tickets, it would have 25 different numbers, picked in order from the scoring system mentioned above.  I use this same order in every lottery I play, making adjustments to the matrix size by placing the larger numbers - not originally in the matrix - through an arbitrary placement system.

    If I am playing a lot of plays, as I may do from time to time for particularly large jackpots with high expectation values, I choose my numbers so that no two pairs are repeated within a complete set.

    You cannot, in my opinion, increase your probability of winning, but you can decrease it if you buy more than one ticket.  (Many people, I know, disagree with me, but nonetheless I am not swayed.)  For instance, if you played 5 tickets that were identical, your odds of winning the jackpot would be exactly the same as if you bought one ticket, though the number os shares of the jackpot would be greater.  Thus you would only profit by having 5 tickets if someone else won the lottery.  They would get a one sixth share and you would get five sixths.  However the probability that you win at all would not be as high as if you had bought 5 different tickets.   With the long odds of the MegaMillions and Powerball, it is usually very unlikely that there will be more than one winner.  In fact, if memory serves me well, there has not been a single drawing in years where more than one winner was the most probable outcome, although a few of the very large jackpots have come close on this score.  Therefore there is almost no advantage whatsoever to having the same set of numbers on two tickets.

    (However, the rules of probability dictate that very unlikely things can still happen.  The odds against any person being born, even restricting them to the same two parents, are over 1 in 70 trillion, much worse than the odds against winning the lottery.  Thus everyone who exists has already beat odds longer than the odds against winning the lottery.  It certainly is possible that a particular drawing would have 100 jackpot winners - it is just not probable.)

    Whatever its merits, my system prevents me from reducing my odds.  Were I to play 11 tickets with different numbers represented in the Powerball, my likelihood of getting at least one number would be 100%.  Therefore I would only face a 4/54 lottery's odds, which are still long.  But again, this system does not increase my odds, it just keeps me from lowering them.

    Powerball has a note on its site, in the FAQ's, noting that the number of winners who select their own numbers to the number of winners who buy quick picks is very approximately equal to the number of purchasers who buy tickets with their own numbers to the number of people who buy quick picks.  I find this very unsurprising. 

    I wrote a computer program a long time ago that helps me to select my numbers according to my "system."  I have not, of course, won the lottery, though.  Still, I have fun, and I have learned a lot of mathematics by thinking about the lottery.  This has had some positive impact on my scientific career. 

    Once in a while though, just for the hell of it, I buy a quick pick when I'm in a hurry. 

    For the current Powerball Jackpot, which I am playing, I goofed, and played the same card twice.  I have thus doubled my expectation value for lower prizes but have not improved my odds of winning the jackpot at all as I would have done had I purchased quick picks.  I have an almost trivially higher expectation value for the grand prize, in the unlikely event that there is a winner(s) other than me  and I am a winner as well.  This is sort of like what one does, I guess, when one plays the powerplay.  I never choose that option.  It doesn't make sense to me mathematically.  The invention of that scheme however, was a great boon to the lottery and its revenue generation and I applaud their creativity.   A cursory scan of the number of winners suggests that about 1 in 5 players actually use that thing.  I wouldn't dream of it.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

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      Maine
      United States
      Member #99
      January 27, 2002
      1016 Posts
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      Posted: January 14, 2006, 5:16 pm - IP Logged

      Thank you Prob988. I like your well informed take on all of these subjects and agree with you. I think that any income you make as a US citizen is taxable but I would love to believe it wasn't if you kept out of the US. Of course, if I won 125 million I'm sure I could find and afford a clever tax lawyer to conserve more than less. Do you play EuroMillions and if so do you have a system? Thanks again for the insights,   alx

      No, I don't play Euromillions, because the expectation value, the value of the prize per dollar played, is lower, as one has to pay fees.  I choose my plays by expectation value, pretax.  Determining expectation values was why I originally began using the poisson distribution I post in my two probability threads.  Later, for interest, I began to develop some schemes for determining the likelihood of large jackpots.  This helps me to plan my purchases better.

      I also don't like to trust third parties with my wager.  There is too much potential for abuse.  This doesn't mean that brokers are dishonest, though some are of questionable legality, just that I don't see an advantage in adding the potential for another layer of difficulty.

      I have been to Europe many times and don't play lotteries there.  I'd rather not deal with international complications, nor the vagueries of international tax law.  Also it is a pain in the butt to try to collect on small prizes - so much so that I am unlikely to do it at all.  This effectively reduces my expectation value.

      I wait for big US jackpots, which occur with pretty regular frequency.

      I do have a lottery system.  Many years ago, I tracked numbers in the California lottery to build a sense of which numbers are more frequently played by people who choose their own numbers.  I scored numbers by the number of winners produced at a given level of given sales tracking the frequency of the number of winners for all prizes - weighted by sales and probabilities of winning - attached to each number in the matrix.  As one might expect, with a few exceptions, numbers appearing in birthdays were likely to increase the numbers of winners.  The more frequently a number was played - according to this score - the less inclined I was to play it.  This means that if my numbers came up, I would be slightly less likely to have to share my prize - meaning a higher expectation value.

      I started this system from the outset of a particular matrix being used in California, and stopped collecting data when I moved out of California.  I wrote a computer program to generate the scores.

      However, I always choose my numbers so that I play the maximum number of numbers that are possible for a set of tickets.  Thus for MegaMillions, ignoring the Mega Ball, if I bought 5 tickets, it would have 25 different numbers, picked in order from the scoring system mentioned above.  I use this same order in every lottery I play, making adjustments to the matrix size by placing the larger numbers - not originally in the matrix - through an arbitrary placement system.

      If I am playing a lot of plays, as I may do from time to time for particularly large jackpots with high expectation values, I choose my numbers so that no two pairs are repeated within a complete set.

      You cannot, in my opinion, increase your probability of winning, but you can decrease it if you buy more than one ticket.  (Many people, I know, disagree with me, but nonetheless I am not swayed.)  For instance, if you played 5 tickets that were identical, your odds of winning the jackpot would be exactly the same as if you bought one ticket, though the number os shares of the jackpot would be greater.  Thus you would only profit by having 5 tickets if someone else won the lottery.  They would get a one sixth share and you would get five sixths.  However the probability that you win at all would not be as high as if you had bought 5 different tickets.   With the long odds of the MegaMillions and Powerball, it is usually very unlikely that there will be more than one winner.  In fact, if memory serves me well, there has not been a single drawing in years where more than one winner was the most probable outcome, although a few of the very large jackpots have come close on this score.  Therefore there is almost no advantage whatsoever to having the same set of numbers on two tickets.

      (However, the rules of probability dictate that very unlikely things can still happen.  The odds against any person being born, even restricting them to the same two parents, are over 1 in 70 trillion, much worse than the odds against winning the lottery.  Thus everyone who exists has already beat odds longer than the odds against winning the lottery.  It certainly is possible that a particular drawing would have 100 jackpot winners - it is just not probable.)

      Whatever its merits, my system prevents me from reducing my odds.  Were I to play 11 tickets with different numbers represented in the Powerball, my likelihood of getting at least one number would be 100%.  Therefore I would only face a 4/54 lottery's odds, which are still long.  But again, this system does not increase my odds, it just keeps me from lowering them.

      Powerball has a note on its site, in the FAQ's, noting that the number of winners who select their own numbers to the number of winners who buy quick picks is very approximately equal to the number of purchasers who buy tickets with their own numbers to the number of people who buy quick picks.  I find this very unsurprising. 

      I wrote a computer program a long time ago that helps me to select my numbers according to my "system."  I have not, of course, won the lottery, though.  Still, I have fun, and I have learned a lot of mathematics by thinking about the lottery.  This has had some positive impact on my scientific career. 

      Once in a while though, just for the hell of it, I buy a quick pick when I'm in a hurry. 

      For the current Powerball Jackpot, which I am playing, I goofed, and played the same card twice.  I have thus doubled my expectation value for lower prizes but have not improved my odds of winning the jackpot at all as I would have done had I purchased quick picks.  I have an almost trivially higher expectation value for the grand prize, in the unlikely event that there is a winner(s) other than me  and I am a winner as well.  This is sort of like what one does, I guess, when one plays the powerplay.  I never choose that option.  It doesn't make sense to me mathematically.  The invention of that scheme however, was a great boon to the lottery and its revenue generation and I applaud their creativity.   A cursory scan of the number of winners suggests that about 1 in 5 players actually use that thing.  I wouldn't dream of it.

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

      Once again, thank you for a some very enlightening thoughts. I don't play Euromillions either for much the same reasons. I do like the odds and prizes better than our US lotteries, especially the two low number bonus balls, so it has some expectation value for me because it seems more realistic than other lotteries. If I lived in Europe I would be hooked, I'm sure. Thank you.   alx

        Tx_Mega_Player's avatar - spider
        BIG D Texas
        United States
        Member #2539
        October 16, 2003
        148 Posts
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        Posted: January 16, 2006, 9:53 am - IP Logged

        Now Think, You got to be kidding me right? How in Gods name is the IRS going to know anything about any US citizen winning the lottery in another country? (This I'd like to know, that is if you have any answer that would amount to a pile of salt) The IRS isn't going to know not a thing, unless the winner opens their mouth or tries to bring the money into the US without declaring it when going through customs! Only a dummy/idiot would do something like that! The smart thing to do is to leave it over there as not to have to claim the win to the IRS! Besides with that kind of money you will be on vacation traveling around Europe with the family! There is nothing in US Tax law that says you can't have an off-shore bank account! The IRS only goes after you for using those funds from said account to live on while living here in the US and not claiming said money as income on your taxes!! That's called tax evasion! So if you don't use the money to live on while in the US it can't be called income, now can it? No it can't!

        I know I wouldn't bring any money back to the US so I could be taxed on my good fortune of winning the Euro Millions! 

        On the issue of tax, I'm pretty sure it would not be taxed in the US as long as the money stays out of the US. I don't know if corporations or trusts can claim tickets in the UK or not. I do know that if the winner is from the UK then they get to meet with some advisors as part of the win. You would have to consult an international tax advisor here in the states.

        Any transfer of money, even on a debit card, could be a big problem if it's not declared as income to the IRS if you spend it here. It would certainly be worth it to have your investments abroad if they are tax free. 

         

         

        WOW BaristaExpress,

        Both you and dvdiva are really underestimating our beloved IRS. For a US citizen, income is income. It doesn't matter if the money is in an "off-shore" account.

         

         

        "Under U.S. tax laws, the worldwide income of any U.S. citizen or resident alien is subject to tax. It doesn't matter if you're living in the United States or overseas, or the money came to you as wages, independent contractor payments or unearned income from investments, pensions, rents or royalties. The Internal Revenue Service is due its legal percentage.

        But there is a break for U.S. taxpayers who live abroad. These citizens may be able to exclude all or a portion of their foreign income from the American tax code. For 2004 returns, up to $80,000 of non-U.S. earnings could be exempt.

        There are two tests you must meet to qualify for the foreign-earned-income exclusion:

        1. You have a tax home in a foreign country and

        2. You meet either the IRS' bona fide residence or physical presence requirements.

        Basically, your tax home is your regular or principal place of business, employment or post of duty. The IRS wants to be sure that you actually moved abroad, rather than simply traveled there periodically to earn money. And you're not totally off the tax hook. If the foreign country has income tax laws, you cannot claim to be exempt from them.

        The second test requires you to establish a genuine home in the country for a full tax year or, failing that, spend at least 330 days abroad earning your income."

        http://www.bankrate.com/brm/itax/tips/20010221a.asp

         

        If either of you play euromillions - then good luck to you. Just don't think that uncle sammie won't be knocking at you door. 

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          BILOXI, MISSISSIPPI
          United States
          Member #19651
          August 3, 2005
          621 Posts
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          Posted: January 16, 2006, 5:49 pm - IP Logged

          I CAN WIN got a ticket , it's over 150 million that will get the lawyers to line up  and in power ball $$'s its about 400 million with 15% odds

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            Greenwich, CT
            United States
            Member #4793
            May 24, 2004
            1822 Posts
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            Posted: January 18, 2006, 9:40 am - IP Logged

            Drawing in six hours!  Maybe someone will always remember they won the jackpot today!  Does Friday the 13th carry the same stigma in Europe?

            Yes.

            The origin of the concept of unlucky thirteen is a Christian concept, based on the presence of 13 diners at the Last Supper.

            Friday is also considered unlucky because it was said to be the day of The Crucifixion.  Thus the conception of Friday the Thirteenth as an "unlucky day" has European origins.

            Thirteen was considered a lucky number in other cultures, including the Mayan culture. 

            Many numerologists - numerology being a mystical approach to numbers - discovered concepts that would be important in serious mathematics.    It is reasonable to assume most medieval mathematicians, including the great mathematician Fibonacci, who lived in the twelfth century and who introduced the concept of Arabic decimals to Europe, embraced some numerological conceptions, including the conception of "lucky numbers."    Fibonacci was the discoverer of a famous series of numbers that are important in many fields, are intimately involved the construction of spirals, spirals being of importance in many sciences.   The ratio of two successive Fibonacci numbers  as they become infinitely large, approaches the so called Golden Ratio which has often been associated with beauty and luck.  Thirteen is a member of the Fibonacci series which goes like this 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21...

            In my own family the number 13 was considered lucky, but not by me. 

            I don't believe in "lucky numbers."  To me, while all numbers have features that are individually interesting, none is "luckier" than the other.  Specifically when one is discussing lottery numbers, I think any lottery outcome is more likely than any other.  The lucky person will simply be the person whose numbers are drawn.  By definition such numbers will be lucky merely for having been on the winning ticket.

             

             

             

             

             

            Thanks for the rundown, Prob.