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probability of euromillions rollover

Topic closed. 34 replies. Last post 11 years ago by anonymous77.

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BILOXI, MISSISSIPPI
United States
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Posted: January 3, 2006, 11:16 pm - IP Logged

i dont know but it has a cash value over a 100 million thats about 300+ megamillions $$ I'M IN

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    new delhi
    India
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    September 20, 2005
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    Posted: January 3, 2006, 11:39 pm - IP Logged

    I hope it rolls one more time. The Irish woman won 77 million pounds last year, an algerian, unemployed, won 50 odd million...

    the irish winner has been having a slightly tough time with kidnapping threats and the wrks. she did, however, treat her friends to free manicure and pedicure. sessions.

    I've bought two tickets for friday. there is also a superdraw of 15 million pounds for saturday. that is the UK lotto.

      anonymous77's avatar - moon
      Seoul
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      Posted: January 4, 2006, 8:41 am - IP Logged

      Currently, the odds of hitting EM jackpot is approximately 1 in 76.3 million. Assuming 57.5 million tickets (at 2 euros per ticket, total sales of 115 million euros) would be sold and utilizing Poisson distribution, I expect the probability of EM rollover to be around 47%. That is slightly less than, but close to, 50%. The following table indicates the probability of the number of EM jackpot winners to be 0, 1, 2, and 3 or more.

       

      # JP winners      probability    cumulative probability

      0                     47%                 47%
      1                   35%                  82%
      2                   13%                  95%
      3+                  5%                 100%

      Please note that the probability of Euro Millions rollover would vary depending on how many tickets one expects to be sold for the drawing. I looked at the past sales history. And, July 22, 2005, drawing had £57 million jackpot and overall ticket sales were 112.5 million euros - 2 euros per ticket. That is very close to the current jackpot level, £58-60 million, and thus I picked it as the basis of expected sales for this Friday drawing of 115 million euros, which then is equivalent to 57.5 million tickets. Sales data source :


      Good luck to all LP members that go for this Friday EM drawing!

       


      ånonymous77 - Primarily for fun and entertainment!

       

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        BILOXI, MISSISSIPPI
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        Posted: January 4, 2006, 12:45 pm - IP Logged

        THANKS 77 and prob 998 

          anonymous77's avatar - moon
          Seoul
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          Posted: January 12, 2006, 11:14 am - IP Logged

          Euro Millions rolled to £70M for this Friday, 1/13, drawing. The determined jackpot for the last drawing was £61.8M (89.8M/$109M), and the actual total European ticket sales were 111M, being slightly lower than for the last year’s drawing with similar jackpot size. Based on the increase in jackpot amount, I figure out that EM estimates total sales for this drawing to be similar to that for the last drawing, that is, 111M+.

          During the last year’s record run, 7/22 drawing had £68M jackpot and ticket sales of about 130M. So, the middle point, 120M, was picked and used in estimating the probability of Euro Millions to roll for 1/13 drawing, which is equivalent to 60 million tickets.

          Assuming 60 million tickets are sold, the probability of EM to roll this Friday is around 46%. That is slightly less than, but still close to, 50%. The following table contains the probability of the number of EM jackpot winners being 0, 1, 2, and 3+. The right column indicates the probability of EM to roll in the next drawing (that is, Jan.20) if and only if this Friday drawing rolls again and assuming same level of ticket sales as in the last year’s drawing with record jackpot amount (€160M, 7/29/05), which I included just for those who might be curious and/or hope strongly for another rollover this Friday.

           

          # Winners    Probability of rollover (Jan.13)         Probability of rollover (Jan.20),

                                                                                      assuming a rollover on 01/13
                               Probability   Cumulative                Probability      Cumulative
          3+              4%                4%                            9%                  9%
          2              14%              18%                          19%              28%
          1              36%            54%                           37%              65%
          0              46%            100%                          35%              100%

           

          IF this Friday, the 13th, drawing rolls again, the January 20 drawing would break, and exceed, the Euro Millions record jackpot of 115.4M (£79.9M/$136M: with the exchange rate of that time?) established on July 29, 2005. And, if and only if so, ticket sales might jump to around 160M, and its jackpot to over 80M pounds ($140+M). In that scenario, the probability of rollover would be decreased significantly to around 35% as in the above table indicates.

           

          It is interesting to note that the most probable outcome in this Friday drawing with respect to the number of winners is still 0 but, with another rollover, would be 1 in next Friday drawing. Practically, I think, 65%:35% is much different from 54%:46%, especially to those who are interested mainly in Roll or Hit, regardless of the specific number of winners like 2 or 5.

           

          Good luck!

           


          ånonymous77 - Primarily for fun and entertainment!

           

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            Posted: January 12, 2006, 11:32 am - IP Logged

            is there any onlinesite you'd recommend where i can play euromillions?

            Click the link on the left side of this page.

             

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              anonymous77's avatar - moon
              Seoul
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              Posted: January 16, 2006, 8:19 am - IP Logged

              Euro Millions rolled to €125M. For the last drawing, the amount of jackpot determined was €108M (£74M/$130M – over $20M increase from the previous), and total European ticket sales were 164M, which was much HIGHER than those for the last year’s drawing with similar jackpot size and the estimated by EM as well. Apparently, Euro Millions estimates total ticket sales for this 1/20 drawing to be similar to, or in fact slightly less than, last drawing's approximate 160M.

              However, considering the significant boost in ticket sales for last drawing and the record-breaking jackpot size for this upcoming one, it seems reasonable to expect ticket sales to be as high as 200M. In that case, entering into a completely new territory, EM jackpot can be as high as 130(£89M/$157M). If ticket sales reamin around 180M, the jackpot would be about 127(£87M/$154M).

              Assuming that, as such, 100 million tickets are sold, the probability of EM to roll on 1/20 is just 27%, roughly one half of 50%. The most probable single outcome with respect to the number of winners is now 1. And, the probability of EM being hit by one or more players is 73%. Indeed, the probability of rollover is even lower than that of being hit by 2+ players.

              At least, mathematical probability says that EM is very likely to be hit, though a probable outcome does not necessarily always coincide with the actual outcome. In any event, it would be quite interesting for anyone interested to watch the result of EM drawing on this coming Friday, January 20.

              Good luck to everyone that plays Euro Millions in this record-breaking drawing!


              ånonymous77 - Primarily for fun and entertainment!

               

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                BILOXI, MISSISSIPPI
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                Posted: January 16, 2006, 1:20 pm - IP Logged

                the new jackpot is now 151.3 million and I think it will still grow before fridays draw    a US winner would be funny

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                  Posted: January 16, 2006, 1:22 pm - IP Logged

                  Were you able to get tickets at PTS?  Things seem to be pretty much back to normal again.  Powerball is also looking good at the moment...

                   

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                    BILOXI, MISSISSIPPI
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                    Posted: January 16, 2006, 1:44 pm - IP Logged

                    I had problems with them the last power ball run but this run in euromillion Ive played the last 4 drawings 2 wins  prime time has always been quick in posting my winnings in my account and may play $20.00 more into the jackpot before  friday 9am

                      anonymous77's avatar - moon
                      Seoul
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                      Posted: January 27, 2006, 10:35 pm - IP Logged

                      Euro Millions rolled to €183M(£125M/$221M for this coming 2/03 drawing. For the 1/27 drawing, the amount of jackpot determined was €153M(£105M/$185M), and the total European ticket sales were incredible €231M. Based on the amount of advertised EM jackpot for the next drawing, one can figure out that Euro Millions estimates total sales would be approximately €268M, which would produce roughly 134M tickets sold.

                      Assuming that 134 million tickets are sold, the probability of EM to roll on 2/03 is just 17%. The most probable single outcome with respect to the number of winners is still 1 at 30%, but the probability of EM being hit by 2 or more players, when combined, is 53%. Altogether, the probability of EM being hit is 83%, much higher than for the last drawing.

                      Taking into account the fact that, in the past, the actually determined EM jackpot has been consistently higher than the advertised, one may expect the jackpot for this coming 2/03 drawing to be as high as $230M. In any event,


                       Better luck to all LP members that play Euro Millions for the next Friday drawing!


                      ånonymous77 - Primarily for fun and entertainment!

                       

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                        BILOXI, MISSISSIPPI
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                        Posted: January 29, 2006, 11:56 pm - IP Logged

                        after reading this, I'd hope to win? but, know that it also could roll    76 million to one   130 million tickets in play I hope it's not 3 or more winners

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                          Sparta, NJ
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                          Posted: January 30, 2006, 6:55 pm - IP Logged

                          Odds only count when I loose.  Just give me the money and watch the hurricane I'll create!  I'll rent a yaht and throw a huge party.  The flag of the ship will be replaced with a banner, saying, I don't care about no stinkin' odds!

                          Cheers

                          |||::> *'`*:-.,_,.-:*''*:--->>> Chewie  <<<---.*''*:-.,_,.-:*''* <:::|||

                          I only trust myself - and that's a questionable choice

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                            Posted: January 31, 2006, 2:49 am - IP Logged

                            I still don't see how the odds would be at 17% for a rollover. Seems like next to impossible now considering the low odds and the spike in sales.

                              anonymous77's avatar - moon
                              Seoul
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                              Posted: January 31, 2006, 5:11 am - IP Logged

                              I just looked at Prob988's thread - The probability of MM rollover. On Nov.15, 2005, when NJ couple hit $315M, the prob of rollover was ~60%. And, in the drawing with the most resent JP win on Jan.06 this year, the prob of rollover was over 90%.

                              So, I think that probability says something in the long-term, but in an individual case, the phrase "anything can happen" still holds.

                              17% is not as big as those in typical MM/PB/EM drawing. But, there still is a chance of no jackpot winner, roughly 1 out of 6.

                               


                              ånonymous77 - Primarily for fun and entertainment!