|Posted: March 29, 2006, 11:09 am - IP Logged|
<Projected Probability of Euro Millions Rollovers from 6th (3/31) to 10th>
Draw Draw Jackpot Total # Tickets Probability Probability of
Date No. (Euros) Sales Sold of Each Consecutive
(Euros) Rollover Rollover
=== ==== ==== ==== ==== ===== =======
4/28 10th 141M 182M 91M 30% 1%
4/21 9th 125M 164M 82M 34% 5%
4/14 8th 100M 111M 55.5M 48% 14%
4/07 7th 87M 101M 50.5M 52% 29%
3/31 6th 75M 91M 45.5M 55% -
The probability of EM rollover on 3/31 is 55%. And, assuming it rolls, the probability of EM rollover on 4/07 is 52%. Thus, there is 29% chance that both 3/31 and 4/07 drawings would roll over. In that case, one would be able to see the 8th drawing of this run.
Thus, as can be seen from the table, the probability of EM to reach 10th drawing with no jackpot winner all the way through 9th drawing is 5%. Also, the probability that one could see the 11th drawing in this run, on May 5, is about 1%.
<Note> From 7th drawing and up, jackpots and sales data were extrapolated from the last RECORD run. As of 6th drawing on 3/31, I figure that the level of announced jackpot and estimated sales is extremely close to that in the 6th drawing of the previous record run.