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# probability of euromillions rollover

Topic closed. 34 replies. Last post 11 years ago by anonymous77.

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BILOXI, MISSISSIPPI
United States
Member #19651
August 3, 2005
621 Posts
Offline
 Posted: March 23, 2006, 11:18 am - IP Logged

24 hours till draw

BILOXI, MISSISSIPPI
United States
Member #19651
August 3, 2005
621 Posts
Offline
 Posted: March 24, 2006, 5:05 pm - IP Logged

ANY NEWS

Seoul
Korea, South
Member #21859
September 16, 2005
346 Posts
Offline
 Posted: March 28, 2006, 9:40 am - IP Logged

Euro Millions rolled over to €75M (£52M/\$91M) jackpot for the 3/31 drawing. In the last drawing, the amount of jackpot determined was €65.5M (£45.2M/\$79M) and the overall European sales €93.2M. Based on the increase in the jackpot pool, I figure that Euro Millions estimates the total sales for this Friday drawing being approximately €91M, which would be equal to 45.5 million tickets.

If, as such, 45.5 million tickets are sold, the probability of EM rolling over would be 55%. The following table indicates the probability of the number of EM jackpot winners being 0, 1, and 2+.

<Probability of Euro Millions to roll over on March 31>

# Winners        Probability      Cumulative Pr.

2+                    12%               12%

1                      33%                45%

0                      55%              100%

Note: When the relatively small amount of jackpot increase, just ~10M euros, is taken into consideration, it is anticipated that, from this drawing till the end of this run, Euro Millions would set the proportion of total sales going into the jackpot pool, back to the normal 11%.

Good luck!

United States
Member #2338
September 17, 2003
2063 Posts
Offline
 Posted: March 28, 2006, 12:15 pm - IP Logged

Any chance of predicting a 10th roll?

Seoul
Korea, South
Member #21859
September 16, 2005
346 Posts
Offline
 Posted: March 29, 2006, 11:09 am - IP Logged

<Projected Probability of Euro Millions Rollovers from 6th (3/31) to 10th>

Draw    Draw    Jackpot       Total     # Tickets     Probability     Probability of

Date      No.       (Euros)      Sales        Sold          of Each           Consecutive

(Euros)                      Rollover           Rollover

===    ====     ====        ====      ====          =====          =======

4/28    10th      141M        182M        91M              30%                 1%

4/21      9th      125M         164M        82M              34%                  5%

4/14      8th      100M       111M         55.5M            48%               14%

4/07      7th        87M         101M         50.5M            52%              29%

3/31    6th        75M          91M        45.5M            55%                -

The probability of EM rollover on 3/31 is 55%. And, assuming it rolls, the probability of EM rollover on 4/07 is 52%. Thus, there is 29% chance that both 3/31 and 4/07 drawings would roll over. In that case, one would be able to see the 8th drawing of this run.

Thus, as can be seen from the table, the probability of EM to reach 10th drawing with no jackpot winner all the way through 9th drawing is 5%. Also, the probability that one could see the 11th drawing in this run, on May 5, is about 1%.

<Note> From 7th drawing and up, jackpots and sales data were extrapolated from the last RECORD run. As of 6th drawing on 3/31, I figure that the level of announced jackpot and estimated sales is extremely close to that in the 6th drawing of the previous record run.

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