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Protecting your numbers

Topic closed. 36 replies. Last post 11 years ago by LANTERN.

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Morrison, IL
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May 13, 2004
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Posted: June 13, 2006, 2:37 pm - IP Logged
PB is currently $86 million. I know that's not the amount of the actual cash, but even if 8 people won, that would still be a lot of money. I don't understand why anyone would try to choose numbers based on how many others might select them. I play to win, although of course I'd love a large jackpot. But I'd rather win 1/10 of $20 million than 100% of nothing.

BTW, what is the highest number of winners in a single PB or MM game? Has it ever been more than 5? Even the state lottery 6/53 games rarely have more than 2 winners.

There would be no way to retire off of 1/10 of $20 million though, and what's the point of winning a PB/MM jackpot if you still aren't financially independent?

Anyway, I would not worry about someone else picking your Powerball numbers and winning off them (especially if you randomly select them), because there are just so many combinations. Just don't pick your numbers from a fortune cookie or anything like that.
    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
    mid-Ohio
    United States
    Member #9
    March 24, 2001
    19904 Posts
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    Posted: June 13, 2006, 4:12 pm - IP Logged

    Actually playing 01 02 03 04 05 +06 has done as well as any other losing combinations.

    MegaMillions
     04/18/06  13 14 25 34 50  +06
     11/15/05  02 04 05 40 48  +07
     10/08/04  16 17 21 33 41  +06
     05/14/04  10 19 32 36 46  +06
     06/20/03  01 02 03 12 37  +35
     04/08/03  08 10 24 38 45  +06
     09/20/02  01 02 04 05 46  +08 *macth 4
     08/20/02  02 13 20 23 43  +06
     07/02/02  14 22 32 35 44  +06
     06/21/02  13 18 32 39 49  +06

     

     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
       
                 Evil Looking       

      SirMetro's avatar - center
      East of Atlanta
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      Posted: June 13, 2006, 4:17 pm - IP Logged

      I will phrase is differently then.  What can someone do to increase there upside in a lotto that is a truly random sample?  That would be to pick numbers that other are not likely to predict, because in the event of hittting a Jackpot, it would cut your upside. 

      I think that perhaps the concept you should consider is, first, OTHERS WILL MOST DEFINITELY select the same set of numbers as you. Does not matter if you share what you select or NOT. If a random group of people is selected and asked to just pick 5 numbers between 1 and 39, you will have several that will either be the same or pretty close, depending upon just how large a group of folks you involve.

      So, how do you protect your win. You don't. Instead, you enhance it. If you truly have faith in the method you use and the numbers you select. Then the BEST and perhaps the most common sense approach is to first, assume that OTHERS are also playing the same selection set and second, you WILL have to share. With that concept in mind, you simply purchase the selected numbers multiple times.

      This means, if 10 winning tickets are sold and you have 5 of those 10, you get half the winnings. Because each ticket is paid equally based on the ticket, not the actually number of people holding the ticket. Example is, there are a select set of numbers I really like, so I play those numbers up to 10 times in a single game. If I ever actually hit anything and 2 others also won (total 12 winning tickets), the pot gets split 12 ways and I will get 10 shares of the pot. In other words if the pot is $12 million and 12 tickets are sold and I have 10 of those 12 tickets, I get $10 million, NOT $4 million because the pot is divided by the number of winning tickets, NOT the number of winning people. Because there are only 3 winners, I will get a bigger share because I hold more tickets then the others. Another reason I do it is so that if I actually do hit, I can give the physical ticket to other members of my family and eliminate any squabling over how I wanted the funds split (hey, I like to dream big).

      Anyway, I hope that offers some different insight as to how to view the situation.

      Good Luck,

      Sir Metro

        Visar's avatar - burning
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        Posted: June 13, 2006, 6:27 pm - IP Logged

        I see what you are saying, but instead of buying multiple tickets with my same numbers i would MUCH rather pick 1 set of numbers that I fell that no one will pick.  I completly understand that someone could QP my same numbers or even come up with them the same way I did by random chance(by the way I dont use ANY method that have I seen on any site/lotto program to further try to pick a truly unlikely set).  I fell that if I wanted to buy 10 tickets for lotto draw then I would probally spread the numbers out to further increase my chances of hitting a lesser Jackpot (sort of like playing many numbers in roulette). 

          Visar's avatar - burning
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          Posted: June 13, 2006, 6:27 pm - IP Logged

          I use a similar strategy.  For many years I kept a file on certain types of lottery drawings and wrote a computer program to process them, accounting, among other things, for their frequency in drawings that resulted in higher than average numbers of winners.  No such program is infallable, since the majority of tickets sold are quick picks, but you can increase the liklihood that if your numbers come up, you will win alone.  This is called raising your expectation value.   

          The effect is slight, and one could argue that the extremely long odds lotteries, Megamillions and Powerball, are very unlikely to have more than one winner.  In Powerball, for instance, the probability that the in the case that there is a winner, there will be more than one of them, does not happen until Powerball sells in a single drawing, about 183 million tickets.    This has never happened under the new matrix.  Since, California excepted, the smaller prizes are not parimutuel but are fixed, one probably accrues an even smaller advantage if one plays in this way.

          You cannot increase your odds of winning in the first place, but if you play more than one ticket, there are certain ways that you can minimize your overall probability of winning.

          Of course, I will never know, but there probably is an alternate universe where I didn't write such a computer program and won using a quick pick!

          I do keep my numbers to myself, however. 

           

           

           

          The best information so far!

           

          By the way, I am a creature of Stats and Science.  Live and Die by the hard facts/numbers!

           

          Also, just as another question.  Has there been any work done to predict lottery numbers by the way of physics.  I understand the ways that computers can predict roulette to give the user an advantage over the house, but can the system be used to predict the balls that are chosen, though the more times the balls are moved it further adds to the difficulty of the problem by even compounding complexity. 

            SirMetro's avatar - center
            East of Atlanta
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            Posted: June 13, 2006, 7:00 pm - IP Logged

            I see what you are saying, but instead of buying multiple tickets with my same numbers i would MUCH rather pick 1 set of numbers that I fell that no one will pick.  I completly understand that someone could QP my same numbers or even come up with them the same way I did by random chance(by the way I dont use ANY method that have I seen on any site/lotto program to further try to pick a truly unlikely set).  I fell that if I wanted to buy 10 tickets for lotto draw then I would probally spread the numbers out to further increase my chances of hitting a lesser Jackpot (sort of like playing many numbers in roulette). 

            This somewhat contradicts your original question. Protecting and enhancing the value of the win is one issue. Keep in mind, yes, there are a lot of various combinations out there that are NOT being played. Why, because, statiscally, most folks do not believe the number is due or will fall. Basically, to buy numbers that no one else is buying is bucking the trend, but keep in mind, the group is a heck of a lot smarter then the individual. The "Group" is buying numbers they believe will hit. If it happens that it is the same set of numbers your picking out, it just means you are agreeing with the general concensus of what everyone else believes will fall. And most of the time, the group will be closer to the mark then any one person will be. So you may want to keep this in mind when going forth with this. Because what I see between the lines is, you want the group to help you, but you do not wish to give anything in return. Sometimes, you get what you give.

            Sir Metro

              justxploring's avatar - villiarna
              Wandering Aimlessly
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              Posted: June 13, 2006, 7:51 pm - IP Logged

              There would be no way to retire off of 1/10 of $20 million though, and what's the point of winning a PB/MM jackpot if you still aren't financially independent?  ryanm

               

              I guess we live in different worlds. First of all, if I won $2 million I'd be ecstatic. Is there really a single person on this board who wouldn't be jumping up and down with joy if he/she won all that money? If you currently work 40-50 hours a week and make $50,000, a million dollars cash is 20 times your annual salary without lifting a finger.  If you continue to work, that money will grow and grow, even in a conservative investment.  Just the peace of mind knowing you have that security blanket would be wonderful. However, I could retire very comfortably tomorrow even if I "only" ended up winning $650K net. 

                RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                mid-Ohio
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                19904 Posts
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                Posted: June 13, 2006, 8:06 pm - IP Logged

                The goal of never having to share a PB/MM jackpot with another winner is more attainable then ever winning a PB/MM jackpot alone or sharing it with another winner.  One should set goals that are attainable.  Almost everyone who plays the PB/MM games will never win or share a jackpot whether that's their goal or not.  Good luck to all those who's goal is to lose, they'll probably succeed without trying. 

                 * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                   
                             Evil Looking       

                  konane's avatar - wallace
                  Atlanta, GA
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                  Posted: June 13, 2006, 8:08 pm - IP Logged

                  There would be no way to retire off of 1/10 of $20 million though, and what's the point of winning a PB/MM jackpot if you still aren't financially independent?  ryanm

                   

                  I guess we live in different worlds. First of all, if I won $2 million I'd be ecstatic. Is there really a single person on this board who wouldn't be jumping up and down with joy if he/she won all that money? If you currently work 40-50 hours a week and make $50,000, a million dollars cash is 20 times your annual salary without lifting a finger.  If you continue to work, that money will grow and grow, even in a conservative investment.  Just the peace of mind knowing you have that security blanket would be wonderful. However, I could retire very comfortably tomorrow even if I "only" ended up winning $650K net. 

                  There is no rule engraved in stone that says you can not win more than once, so be open to the possibility.  Also when you start winning smaller amounts it is most of the time indicative that you're warming up on a winning streak so greet those small wins with joy and delight so more can be on the way and not stopped by a negative attitude of disappointment.

                  Read many years ago in the defunct Lotto World magazine that people who choose their own numbers win more often with those .... although most wins come from QP because the majority of people buy QP.

                  Another article said that if you play higher numbers you have a greater probability of not sharing the jackpot because most people play lower numbers, birthday numbers, mathematical combinations like 7-14-21-28 etc.  That being said, do game research, come up with some numbers and give it a go.  Just perhaps you'll be one of the few fortunate ones to reel in the mother lode.  Good luck!!  Big Grin

                   

                  Good luck to everyone!

                    Visar's avatar - burning
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                    Posted: June 13, 2006, 8:22 pm - IP Logged

                    I see what you are saying, but instead of buying multiple tickets with my same numbers i would MUCH rather pick 1 set of numbers that I fell that no one will pick.  I completly understand that someone could QP my same numbers or even come up with them the same way I did by random chance(by the way I dont use ANY method that have I seen on any site/lotto program to further try to pick a truly unlikely set).  I fell that if I wanted to buy 10 tickets for lotto draw then I would probally spread the numbers out to further increase my chances of hitting a lesser Jackpot (sort of like playing many numbers in roulette). 

                    This somewhat contradicts your original question. Protecting and enhancing the value of the win is one issue. Keep in mind, yes, there are a lot of various combinations out there that are NOT being played. Why, because, statiscally, most folks do not believe the number is due or will fall. Basically, to buy numbers that no one else is buying is bucking the trend, but keep in mind, the group is a heck of a lot smarter then the individual. The "Group" is buying numbers they believe will hit. If it happens that it is the same set of numbers your picking out, it just means you are agreeing with the general concensus of what everyone else believes will fall. And most of the time, the group will be closer to the mark then any one person will be. So you may want to keep this in mind when going forth with this. Because what I see between the lines is, you want the group to help you, but you do not wish to give anything in return. Sometimes, you get what you give.

                    Sir Metro

                    Your making one key mistake, in this game we are talking about a truly random sample.  In, lets say horse racing, your argument would hold up.  There could easly be people who know more about who will win than I would be about to predict, thus giving others an advanged on the race.  The basic notion of "The 'Group' is buying numbers they believe will hit" would be a wrong approach in PB/MM because how can you "know" what numbers are more likely to hit the jackpot?  You dont, but you can look into stats and basic psychology to take out all number combos that will be highly likely to already be played. I am just saying that I am trying to increase my upside by using by own logical reasoning.  What would you rather do,  pick 5/10/15/20/25 +30---Hit all the numbers and share it with 100 people, or pick a random sample that you or only 1 other person picked and have 43 to 86 Mil? 

                      konane's avatar - wallace
                      Atlanta, GA
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                      Posted: June 13, 2006, 8:33 pm - IP Logged

                      Why don't you watch the MM and PB challenges to see which predictor uses which strategy and wins the most?  Some predictors use the same numbers every draw, some change them a little, some a lot.  See how those predictions go versus numbers actually drawn. 

                      That may give you some ideas but again higher numbers drawn for a jackpot have the greater probability of having a single winner than lower numbers. 

                      Good luck to everyone!

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                        Morrison, IL
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                        Posted: June 13, 2006, 9:55 pm - IP Logged

                        There would be no way to retire off of 1/10 of $20 million though, and what's the point of winning a PB/MM jackpot if you still aren't financially independent?  ryanm

                         

                        I guess we live in different worlds. First of all, if I won $2 million I'd be ecstatic. Is there really a single person on this board who wouldn't be jumping up and down with joy if he/she won all that money? If you currently work 40-50 hours a week and make $50,000, a million dollars cash is 20 times your annual salary without lifting a finger.  If you continue to work, that money will grow and grow, even in a conservative investment.  Just the peace of mind knowing you have that security blanket would be wonderful. However, I could retire very comfortably tomorrow even if I "only" ended up winning $650K net. 

                        There is no rule engraved in stone that says you can not win more than once, so be open to the possibility.  Also when you start winning smaller amounts it is most of the time indicative that you're warming up on a winning streak so greet those small wins with joy and delight so more can be on the way and not stopped by a negative attitude of disappointment.

                        Read many years ago in the defunct Lotto World magazine that people who choose their own numbers win more often with those .... although most wins come from QP because the majority of people buy QP.

                        Another article said that if you play higher numbers you have a greater probability of not sharing the jackpot because most people play lower numbers, birthday numbers, mathematical combinations like 7-14-21-28 etc.  That being said, do game research, come up with some numbers and give it a go.  Just perhaps you'll be one of the few fortunate ones to reel in the mother lode.  Good luck!!  Big Grin

                         

                        Nobody in history has ever won more than one Powerball or Mega Millions jackpot though.

                          Avatar
                          New Jersey
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                          Posted: June 13, 2006, 10:04 pm - IP Logged

                          I use a similar strategy.  For many years I kept a file on certain types of lottery drawings and wrote a computer program to process them, accounting, among other things, for their frequency in drawings that resulted in higher than average numbers of winners.  No such program is infallable, since the majority of tickets sold are quick picks, but you can increase the liklihood that if your numbers come up, you will win alone.  This is called raising your expectation value.   

                          The effect is slight, and one could argue that the extremely long odds lotteries, Megamillions and Powerball, are very unlikely to have more than one winner.  In Powerball, for instance, the probability that the in the case that there is a winner, there will be more than one of them, does not happen until Powerball sells in a single drawing, about 183 million tickets.    This has never happened under the new matrix.  Since, California excepted, the smaller prizes are not parimutuel but are fixed, one probably accrues an even smaller advantage if one plays in this way.

                          You cannot increase your odds of winning in the first place, but if you play more than one ticket, there are certain ways that you can minimize your overall probability of winning.

                          Of course, I will never know, but there probably is an alternate universe where I didn't write such a computer program and won using a quick pick!

                          I do keep my numbers to myself, however. 

                           

                           

                           

                          The best information so far!

                           

                          By the way, I am a creature of Stats and Science.  Live and Die by the hard facts/numbers!

                           

                          Also, just as another question.  Has there been any work done to predict lottery numbers by the way of physics.  I understand the ways that computers can predict roulette to give the user an advantage over the house, but can the system be used to predict the balls that are chosen, though the more times the balls are moved it further adds to the difficulty of the problem by even compounding complexity. 

                          One of the most difficult problems in physics is the three body problem, which in fact has no exact solution, although one can construct programs that get one arbitrarily close by approximation.  The fifty-six ball system is infinitely more complex.  There are programs that statistically predict large numbers of atoms in a scientifically useful way, but these are approximations that are useful only because the sample is huge.

                          There is no way to predict lottery numbers.  People want to believe otherwise, but of all the predictors there are very few who have actually won.

                          Now, if I won the lottery tonight, I could tell you that I predicted the outcome, and you might believe me, but in fact, I would have simply been lucky to have experienced an improbable outcome.  I would, in fact, no matter what I tell myself, predicted any better than the quick pick machine.


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                            Posted: June 14, 2006, 1:23 am - IP Logged

                            visar, I always pick my numbers. However, my numbers I pick change from time to time for each draw because there's no way to predict lottery numbers.

                              SirMetro's avatar - center
                              East of Atlanta
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                              Posted: June 14, 2006, 11:07 am - IP Logged

                              I see what you are saying, but instead of buying multiple tickets with my same numbers i would MUCH rather pick 1 set of numbers that I fell that no one will pick.  I completly understand that someone could QP my same numbers or even come up with them the same way I did by random chance(by the way I dont use ANY method that have I seen on any site/lotto program to further try to pick a truly unlikely set).  I fell that if I wanted to buy 10 tickets for lotto draw then I would probally spread the numbers out to further increase my chances of hitting a lesser Jackpot (sort of like playing many numbers in roulette). 

                              This somewhat contradicts your original question. Protecting and enhancing the value of the win is one issue. Keep in mind, yes, there are a lot of various combinations out there that are NOT being played. Why, because, statiscally, most folks do not believe the number is due or will fall. Basically, to buy numbers that no one else is buying is bucking the trend, but keep in mind, the group is a heck of a lot smarter then the individual. The "Group" is buying numbers they believe will hit. If it happens that it is the same set of numbers your picking out, it just means you are agreeing with the general concensus of what everyone else believes will fall. And most of the time, the group will be closer to the mark then any one person will be. So you may want to keep this in mind when going forth with this. Because what I see between the lines is, you want the group to help you, but you do not wish to give anything in return. Sometimes, you get what you give.

                              Sir Metro

                              Your making one key mistake, in this game we are talking about a truly random sample.  In, lets say horse racing, your argument would hold up.  There could easly be people who know more about who will win than I would be about to predict, thus giving others an advanged on the race.  The basic notion of "The 'Group' is buying numbers they believe will hit" would be a wrong approach in PB/MM because how can you "know" what numbers are more likely to hit the jackpot?  You dont, but you can look into stats and basic psychology to take out all number combos that will be highly likely to already be played. I am just saying that I am trying to increase my upside by using by own logical reasoning.  What would you rather do,  pick 5/10/15/20/25 +30---Hit all the numbers and share it with 100 people, or pick a random sample that you or only 1 other person picked and have 43 to 86 Mil? 

                              You may want to consider staying with computer generated quickpicks at your local convienence store or where ever it is you purchase your tickets. Why, because if you actually review the stats of how the winning numbers were selected, you may find that a large percentage of individual winners (stats not readily available at the moment) came not from selected digits, but by simple quick-pick at the local convience store.

                              In regards to "how can you know what numbers are due" is based upon time proven statistics. Following a given behavior, pattern or even sequence of what typically shows up after a certain set occurs. Determining which ball will fall can be mathematically calculated (presuming you have sufficient data and nothing better to do with your time).

                              Anyway, whatever method you chose, be it logic or luck, I wish you well in your endeavors.

                              Sir Metro