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KY Floyd

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October 16, 2005
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Sep 11, 2007, 12:39 am

Quote: Originally posted by four4me on Sep 10, 2007
I buy a quick pick for most every mega draw. I am usually never happy with the numbers on them --- meaning i rarely get quick picks that have numbers i would have even thought of playing. When we bought quick picks in a pool i would go over the numbers and shake my head having found that out of 100 or so tickets many tickets had similar combinations of numbers either sequentially or by position. I expected to see lines that are completely different from one another. Not tickets with the same numbers bunched up.
Of course i realize that every ticket has the same possibility of winning something.
I just wish the numbers on quick picks were more dispersed over the field of numbers. And not the same on every other or several lines.
Sometimes i take the quick pick numbers i get on a group of tickets and fill out tickets with different numbers hoping to edge my selections in my favor. Hasn't worked yet but there always the next draw.

I see a lot of comments about QP numbers that people aren't happy with, but if you acknowledge that each combination has the same chance of winning, why is that a problem?
Look at the winning combination for the last MM jackpot. All 5 regular balls were even and 2 of them were from the low 40's. Based on the comments I see I'm guessing that most of the people here would have been unhappy to see those numbers on their QP's, but we know there are 4 other people out there who are very happy to have played those numbers, whether by chance or design.
Of course that also may be a good argument against QP's. The MD ticket was definitely a QP. I haven't seen anything about the other 3, but if all of the winning tickets were QP's it means we would have seen a roll if it weren't for those QP's. That would have given us a MM jackpot of at least 415 million or so. The numbers for the next drawing also look like a combination that wouldn't have been likely to have beenplayed except by a QP, either, so without QP's we might well have seen that fabled half billion dollar jackpot, and at that level it could well have passed the $600 million mark.
Personally I'd prefer that QP's didn't exist at all. It wouldn't do squat to improve my chances of winning, but it would give me more chances at bigger jackpots and a better chance of being an only winner if I were to win.
KY Floyd

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Sep 11, 2007, 12:45 am

Quote: Originally posted by JADELottery on Sep 10, 2007
Notice the left out information:
1. The total number of Quick Pick purchases it took to get that(those) win(s) for that day's draw.
2. The total number of Quick Pick purchases for the draws spanning 2007-08-03 to 2007-08-08 even when there was no jackpot Quick Pick win.
3. The numerous stores where people bought Losing-jackpot Quick Picks.
And at 70% to 80% of the purchases, I think you can get the picture.

You can make a good guess at the answers by looking at the odds, but why does it matter? The statistics say that 70 to 80% of sales are QP's and 70 to 80% of winners are QP's. That also tells us that 20 to 30% of sales are self picks and 20 to 30% of winners are self picks. Both win in proportion to sales, and neither one has a better chance than the other.
four4me

MD
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Sep 11, 2007, 1:02 am

Quote: Originally posted by Coin Toss on Sep 10, 2007
four4me
But how often are the numbers drawn ones we would have played? Evidently not all that often!

A lot of times my chosen picks i wheeled for mega i have got 3 of 5 which i know isn't even close and 2 x i got 4 of 5 no bonus ball.
I have three mega tickets with personal numbers they also have came in 2 of 5 --- 3 of 5.
I guess my story isn't much different than many others. Cause close only counts in horse shoes.
I would like to be one of the winners that can say i chose the picks and won with them. Whether they are my personal numbers or a random wheeled set i picked form observations. .
four4me

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Sep 11, 2007, 1:30 am

Quote: Originally posted by KY Floyd on Sep 11, 2007
I see a lot of comments about QP numbers that people aren't happy with, but if you acknowledge that each combination has the same chance of winning, why is that a problem?
Look at the winning combination for the last MM jackpot. All 5 regular balls were even and 2 of them were from the low 40's. Based on the comments I see I'm guessing that most of the people here would have been unhappy to see those numbers on their QP's, but we know there are 4 other people out there who are very happy to have played those numbers, whether by chance or design.
Of course that also may be a good argument against QP's. The MD ticket was definitely a QP. I haven't seen anything about the other 3, but if all of the winning tickets were QP's it means we would have seen a roll if it weren't for those QP's. That would have given us a MM jackpot of at least 415 million or so. The numbers for the next drawing also look like a combination that wouldn't have been likely to have beenplayed except by a QP, either, so without QP's we might well have seen that fabled half billion dollar jackpot, and at that level it could well have passed the $600 million mark.
Personally I'd prefer that QP's didn't exist at all. It wouldn't do squat to improve my chances of winning, but it would give me more chances at bigger jackpots and a better chance of being an only winner if I were to win.

Let me see if i can explain this better. Lets say i go to 10 different farm stores and by 10 quick pick tickets then go home and check each ticket i have found that for some reason 8 of ten tickets out of the 100 have numbers like 01-03-05- others might have 34-35-39 and still others might have the same or similar numbers etc.
Now on a piece of paper i write down all the numbers 1 thru 46 in the pool and then check every number on the tickets and make hash marks for every number i have on the tickets on the piece of paper. Then i check to see what numbers i didn't get on any tickets.
Sometimes it's like 15 numbers or more that no ticket has on it anywhere. Mind i just bought 100 tickets thats 500 hundred numbers and one would think that every number in the pool of 46 would have been placed somewhere throughout the 100 tickets.
I could see if 5 numbers weren't chosen at all.
We aren't even talking about bonus balls here. Thats another story.

I know there's fault with my idea but it has happened time and again even if i buy the 100 tickets from one machine.
All I'm saying is when i buy groups of quick picks most of them contain the same numbers or like numbers and when they draw the numbers I'm lucky if i match 2 of 5 on a few and once in a while 3 of 5.
Maybe other people have better luck when they buy groups of Q picks but here in Maryland it seems no matter where you buy them they are all like i have described.
jarasan

Harbinger

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Sep 11, 2007, 7:09 am

Quote: Originally posted by four4me on Sep 11, 2007
Let me see if i can explain this better. Lets say i go to 10 different farm stores and by 10 quick pick tickets then go home and check each ticket i have found that for some reason 8 of ten tickets out of the 100 have numbers like 01-03-05- others might have 34-35-39 and still others might have the same or similar numbers etc.
Now on a piece of paper i write down all the numbers 1 thru 46 in the pool and then check every number on the tickets and make hash marks for every number i have on the tickets on the piece of paper. Then i check to see what numbers i didn't get on any tickets.
Sometimes it's like 15 numbers or more that no ticket has on it anywhere. Mind i just bought 100 tickets thats 500 hundred numbers and one would think that every number in the pool of 46 would have been placed somewhere throughout the 100 tickets.
I could see if 5 numbers weren't chosen at all.
We aren't even talking about bonus balls here. Thats another story.

I know there's fault with my idea but it has happened time and again even if i buy the 100 tickets from one machine.
All I'm saying is when i buy groups of quick picks most of them contain the same numbers or like numbers and when they draw the numbers I'm lucky if i match 2 of 5 on a few and once in a while 3 of 5.
Maybe other people have better luck when they buy groups of Q picks but here in Maryland it seems no matter where you buy them they are all like i have described.

There is a name for that QP phenomena, Quick Pick Clustering.

FJB
JADELottery

Native American Eagle Sun

MN
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December 7, 2001
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Sep 11, 2007, 10:08 am

There are some people who just don't get it and then there are Some People Who Just Don't Get It.
The odds and equal probability of each combination is not in question and the probability of each combination for both Self Picks and Quick Picks are the same on a combinatorial basis, only.
Also, the proportion of separate sales and wins for the respective play types is not the problem.
Herein lay the problem, it's when Quick Picks are compared to Self Picks.
It reminds me of the snotty, gloating team that wins a game yelling, "WE WON, WE Won, nah-nah nah-nah nah nah! Quick Picks won, Quick Picks won!"
Yet as mentioned before in the football example, the teams are grossly mismatched in player counts.
In that case, it's obvious "All things are NOT equal."
In order to make All Things Equal for a proper comparison, there needs to be some kind of relationship between the two different methods of play.
That is what the first post achieves, a means of equating a Quick Pick purchase to a Self Pick purchase; not on an odds basis, not on a combinatorial basis, just purchase to purchase, dollar for dollar.
Purchasing power is what this relates to; where the effort is placed and the results it achieves.
With that in mind, let's look at how this would be if I were to convert my Self Picks into Quick Picks to achieve the same results.
I'll spend around $20.00 on my Self Picks because it's tailored to my spending plan, the expendable cash I have to play with.
Spending more means I start cutting into other necessities like Gas, Utility, Mortgage, Food, Home Repair, etc.
Also, my Self Picks are optimized to produce the most number of wins with the least amount of effort.
It's one more thing that Quick Picks can't touch.
To convert my Self Picks to Quick Picks and try to achieve the results that the Quick Pick Believer would have me pay homage to, means I'd have to change the amount I'd be spending.
Unfortunately, this means increasing the cost of my plays.
The increase would jump from $20.00 to ($47.00 at 70%) and ($80.00 at 80%) to have the same effect as a Quick Pick.
That Is Not An Option.
I'll stick with my $20.00 play and just play Quick Picks as a Supplement to my playing strategy.

The One Over None
I Know...
four4me

MD
United States
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Sep 11, 2007, 10:58 am

Quote: Originally posted by jarasan on Sep 11, 2007
There is a name for that QP phenomena, Quick Pick Clustering.

Yep thats the word that best describes it.
Quick pick clustering.
And you know what really bugs me is I'll bet it happens in other states too.
The Rng terminals chip sets are all more than likely from the same manufacture. Therefore they spit out the same or similar combinations. If those chip set are programed to omit numbers then they have gained and upper edge on the game. And while i have no way to prove it. Other than comparing large groups of Quick picks from past attempts at winning.
Sometimes when the pots are high and we form a pool we get 10 people together and all pitch in 20 bucks. 200 tickets / 1000 numbers and the field of numbers is not completely covered.
I'm not real good at math but I'd rather wheel the whole set of numbers and find a wheel that would generate tickets where the whole 46 numbers were used even though i know the improbability of winning with that wheel. At least all the numbers would be covered.
LANTERN

Tx
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Sep 19, 2007, 4:07 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Coin Toss on Sep 10, 2007
If you subscribed to the list of winners e-mail for any given lottery game you might think differently.
I get the one for the Illinois Little Lotto since it's the one I play the most, there's a drawing everyday, and it gets hit pretty often. Most of those hits are quick picks, that's al there is to it.

Here's August:
LITTLE LOTTO PRIZE PAYOUTS FOR FRIDAY, AUGUST 03, 2007

Winning NUMBERS: 01 - 05 - 26 - 36 - 39

PLAYER(S) MATCHING 5 OF 5 NUMBERS
INCLUDING SUBSCRIPTION WINNERS:          2
EACH PLAYER WILL RECEIVE:       $190,000.00

   Winning TICKET(S) WERE SOLD AT:

   828178 CC FOOD MARTS          (QP)


   258707 SPEEDWAY #5378             (QP)

LITTLE LOTTO PRIZE PAYOUTS FOR SUNDAY, AUGUST 05, 2007

Winning NUMBERS: 03 - 14 - 25 - 27 - 28

PLAYER(S) MATCHING 5 OF 5 NUMBERS
INCLUDING SUBSCRIPTION WINNERS:          1
EACH PLAYER WILL RECEIVE:       $150,000.00

   WINNING TICKET(S) WERE SOLD AT:

   800219 CASEYS GEN STORE #2287

LITTLE LOTTO PRIZE PAYOUTS FOR TUESDAY, AUGUST 07, 2007

WINNING NUMBERS: 01 - 11 - 14 - 26 - 38

PLAYER(S) MATCHING 5 OF 5 NUMBERS
INCLUDING SUBSCRIPTION WINNERS:          1
EACH PLAYER WILL RECEIVE:       $175,000.00

   WINNING TICKET(S) WERE SOLD AT:

   201535 PAYLESS TOBACCO          (QP)

LITTLE LOTTO PRIZE PAYOUTS FOR WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 08, 2007

WINNING NUMBERS: 06 - 16 - 25 - 34 - 35

PLAYER(S) MATCHING 5 OF 5 NUMBERS
INCLUDING SUBSCRIPTION WINNERS:          1
EACH PLAYER WILL RECEIVE:       $100,000.00

   WINNING TICKET(S) WERE SOLD AT:

   095125 GAS PLUS FOOD MART       (QP)

etc.... It won't let me post them all because they're in caps and it's too time consuming to make them enough lower case to post, but for August 11 out of 17 winning tickets were quick picks. That's a very typical month.

Most people who pick their own numbers don't know how to predict right, so their numbers are no better than quick picks.
How many times do I have to say this?
Perhaps a billion times!, As some people just NEVER get it.
Birthdays, anniversaries, dream numbers, playing the same numbers all of the time, etc, those are not numbers picked according to a system that use past draws stats, so they are no better than quick picks, therefore the stats are are you said.
Picks that are better predicted do have a much better chance of winning than quick picks, but How many people know how?
Not very many as we all know or should know.
Therefore the above stats are probably right.
You get out, what you put in.
scheiß in scheiß out.
This is a family site, I should not be posting this.

BibleOnline ParishesOnline ChristianRadioOnline MassOnline Mass

"Ten measures of beauty descended to the world, nine were taken by Jerusalem."

JADELottery

Native American Eagle Sun

MN
United States
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December 7, 2001
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Oct 11, 2007, 8:56 am

My Self Picks are Optimized to Produce the Most Number of Wins with the Least Amount of Effort.

2007-10-06
JADELottery	Wisconsin	Badger 5	4 of 5	18-23-24-27-28	23-24-25-27-28	$150
JADELottery	Wisconsin	Badger 5	4 of 5	20-23-25-27-28	23-24-25-27-28	$150
JADELottery	Wisconsin	Badger 5	4 of 5	22-23-25-27-28	23-24-25-27-28	$150
JADELottery	Wisconsin	Badger 5	3 of 5	17-21-24-25-27	23-24-25-27-28	$10
JADELottery	Wisconsin	Badger 5	3 of 5	18-19-23-25-27	23-24-25-27-28	$10
JADELottery	Wisconsin	Badger 5	3 of 5	18-19-24-25-28	23-24-25-27-28	$10
JADELottery	Wisconsin	Badger 5	3 of 5	19-20-23-25-28	23-24-25-27-28	$10
JADELottery	Wisconsin	Badger 5	3 of 5	19-21-23-24-28	23-24-25-27-28	$10
JADELottery	Wisconsin	Badger 5	3 of 5	19-24-26-27-28	23-24-25-27-28	$10
JADELottery	Wisconsin	Badger 5	3 of 5	20-21-23-24-25	23-24-25-27-28	$10
JADELottery	Wisconsin	Badger 5	3 of 5	20-21-25-27-28	23-24-25-27-28	$10
JADELottery	Wisconsin	Badger 5	3 of 5	20-23-25-26-27	23-24-25-27-28	$10
JADELottery	Wisconsin	Badger 5	3 of 5	21-24-25-26-28	23-24-25-27-28	$10
2007-10-10
JADELottery	Wisconsin	Badger 5	3 of 5	12-14-17-20-21	03-05-12-20-21	$10
JADELottery	Wisconsin	Badger 5	3 of 5	12-16-18-20-21	03-05-12-20-21	$10

I never had a Quick Pick Purchase do something like this for me in one draw like on 2007-10-06 and you will never see this happen on a consistent basis ever for a Quick Pick.

Self Picks are Optimized to Produce the Most Number of Wins with the Least Amount of Effort, Fact Undeniable.

The One Over None
I Know...

JADELottery

Native American Eagle Sun

MN
United States
Member #21
December 7, 2001
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Oct 11, 2007, 9:07 am

Also, not showing up in the Lottery Post's data.
The Wisconsin Badger 5 has a match 2 of 5.
If those were included, there would be an additional 25 wins to tack on for the 2007-10-06 date.
Below is the complete list of combos and wins on the right for the 2007-10-06 draw.
Notice every line has at least 1 winning number in it, also.
Winning numbers for 2007-10-06 were 23 24 25 27 28.
00001 - 17 18 19 21 23 - 01
00002 - 17 18 19 21 28 - 01
00003 - 17 18 20 23 24 - 02
00004 - 17 18 21 22 28 - 01
00005 - 17 18 21 23 26 - 01
00006 - 17 18 22 23 27 - 02
00007 - 17 18 22 25 26 - 01
00008 - 17 19 20 22 27 - 01
00009 - 17 19 20 24 25 - 02
00010 - 17 19 21 22 28 - 01
00011 - 17 19 22 23 24 - 02
00012 - 17 20 21 23 27 - 02
00013 - 17 20 21 24 25 - 02
00014 - 17 20 21 24 26 - 01
00015 - 17 20 21 25 28 - 02
00016 - 17 20 22 25 27 - 02
00017 - 17 20 22 26 28 - 01
00018 - 17 20 24 26 28 - 02
00019 - 17 21 23 26 27 - 02
00020 - 17 21 24 25 27 - 03
00021 - 17 21 24 26 28 - 02
00022 - 18 19 20 22 25 - 01
00023 - 18 19 20 25 26 - 01
00024 - 18 19 21 25 27 - 02
00025 - 18 19 22 25 26 - 01
00026 - 18 19 23 24 26 - 02
00027 - 18 19 23 25 27 - 03
00028 - 18 19 24 25 28 - 03
00029 - 18 20 23 26 27 - 02
00030 - 18 21 22 23 27 - 02
00031 - 18 22 23 26 28 - 02
00032 - 18 22 24 26 27 - 02
00033 - 18 22 24 26 28 - 02
00034 - 18 23 24 27 28 - 04
00035 - 19 20 22 27 28 - 02
00036 - 19 20 23 25 28 - 03
00037 - 19 20 24 25 26 - 02
00038 - 19 21 22 24 25 - 02
00039 - 19 21 22 24 27 - 02
00040 - 19 21 23 24 28 - 03
00041 - 19 22 23 26 28 - 02
00042 - 19 24 26 27 28 - 03
00043 - 20 21 23 24 25 - 03
00044 - 20 21 25 27 28 - 03
00045 - 20 22 23 24 26 - 02
00046 - 20 23 25 26 27 - 03
00047 - 20 23 25 27 28 - 04
00048 - 21 22 26 27 28 - 02
00049 - 21 24 25 26 28 - 03
00050 - 22 23 25 27 28 - 04

The One Over None
I Know...
JADELottery

Native American Eagle Sun

MN
United States
Member #21
December 7, 2001
4,811 Posts
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Oct 11, 2007, 9:32 am

The 2007-10-10 drawing also had 16 additional 2 of 5 wins.
Winning numbers 03 05 12 20 21 for 2007-10-10.
00001 - 11 12 13 15 17 - 01
00002 - 11 12 13 15 22 - 01
00003 - 11 12 14 17 18 - 01
00004 - 11 12 15 16 22 - 01
00005 - 11 12 15 17 20 - 02
00006 - 11 12 16 17 21 - 02
00007 - 11 12 16 19 20 - 02
00008 - 11 13 14 16 21 - 01
00009 - 11 13 14 18 19 - 00
00010 - 11 13 15 16 22 - 00
00011 - 11 13 16 17 18 - 00
00012 - 11 14 15 17 21 - 01
00013 - 11 14 15 18 19 - 00
00014 - 11 14 15 18 20 - 01
00015 - 11 14 15 19 22 - 00
00016 - 11 14 16 19 21 - 01
00017 - 11 14 16 20 22 - 01
00018 - 11 14 18 20 22 - 01
00019 - 11 15 17 20 21 - 02
00020 - 11 15 18 19 21 - 01
00021 - 11 15 18 20 22 - 01
00022 - 12 13 14 16 19 - 01
00023 - 12 13 14 19 20 - 02
00024 - 12 13 15 19 21 - 02
00025 - 12 13 16 19 20 - 02
00026 - 12 13 17 18 20 - 02
00027 - 12 13 17 19 21 - 02
00028 - 12 13 18 19 22 - 01
00029 - 12 14 17 20 21 - 03
00030 - 12 15 16 17 21 - 02
00031 - 12 16 17 20 22 - 02
00032 - 12 16 18 20 21 - 03
00033 - 12 16 18 20 22 - 02
00034 - 12 17 18 21 22 - 02
00035 - 13 14 16 21 22 - 01
00036 - 13 14 17 19 22 - 00
00037 - 13 14 18 19 20 - 01
00038 - 13 15 16 18 19 - 00
00039 - 13 15 16 18 21 - 01
00040 - 13 15 17 18 22 - 00
00041 - 13 16 17 20 22 - 01
00042 - 13 18 20 21 22 - 02
00043 - 14 15 17 18 19 - 00
00044 - 14 15 19 21 22 - 01
00045 - 14 16 17 18 20 - 01
00046 - 14 17 19 20 21 - 02
00047 - 14 17 19 21 22 - 01
00048 - 15 16 20 21 22 - 02
00049 - 15 18 19 20 22 - 01
00050 - 16 17 19 21 22 - 01

The One Over None
I Know...
psykomo

United States
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May 30, 2004
5,289 Posts
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Oct 11, 2007, 2:53 pm

Quote: Originally posted by four4me on Sep 11, 2007
Yep thats the word that best describes it.
Quick pick clustering.
And you know what really bugs me is I'll bet it happens in other states too.
The Rng terminals chip sets are all more than likely from the same manufacture. Therefore they spit out the same or similar combinations. If those chip set are programed to omit numbers then they have gained and upper edge on the game. And while i have no way to prove it. Other than comparing large groups of Quick picks from past attempts at winning.
Sometimes when the pots are high and we form a pool we get 10 people together and all pitch in 20 bucks. 200 tickets / 1000 numbers and the field of numbers is not completely covered.
I'm not real good at math but I'd rather wheel the whole set of numbers and find a wheel that would generate tickets where the whole 46 numbers were used even though i know the improbability of winning with that wheel. At least all the numbers would be covered.

THANKS...........to ALL for this QP..........discussion!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
This PSYKO has done well in the past with QP's (note: I said PAST)
In the present TIME..........this PSYKO <<<<<<<<<HAS NOT???????
therefore,.. what DO YOU think I've done in this SITUATION ???????
ANSWER: (& confession) translation,.....ALL pain....no GAIN <$$$$$
I've.............almost QUIT playing the LOTTERY ..............it aunt much
FUN any more if you DON't WIN>>>>>>>>>> .............<<<<<<<<<
THANKS>>>>>>>TOO ALL on the Lottery POST ^^^^^^^^^^^^
NO........won't QUIT 100% ..................BUT, &
all know their is always a BUTT out there QP computer has been
tampered, adjusted, fine tuned..or FIXED
PEOPLE won't QUIT play'in BUT...........they may not spend as much
money if the management is squeezing their BUTT's (pocketbook)
LOL >>>>>>>>>jackpot&&(TOO ALL)
POWERBALLPOOL

LOUISVILLE
United States
Member #55,628
October 11, 2007
17 Posts
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Oct 11, 2007, 5:42 pm

ummm i disagree
POWERBALLPOOL

LOUISVILLE
United States
Member #55,628
October 11, 2007
17 Posts
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Oct 11, 2007, 7:21 pm

80% of winning tickets are computer generated

The odds of winning the grand prize in powerball are 1 in 146,107,962.00The game sold $2,821,073,017 in FY06 (July 1, 2005 to June 30, 2006).The game sold $2,503,651,244 in FY07The odds of winning the grand prize if you covor all 42 numbers each week are greatly Increased on that one winning ticket. To 1 in 3,563,608.83(same as the odds for matching 5 of 5.)Ever notice how its pools that often win?Is this the reason?your chances are 4,100%better of winning in a pool that covors all POWERBALL numbers than playing 100$ worth of quick picks at 100 in 146,107,962.00 odds.
POWERBALLPOOL

LOUISVILLE
United States
Member #55,628
October 11, 2007
17 Posts
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Oct 11, 2007, 7:30 pm

there are 299,398,484 people in the u.s.
the odds of winning the powerball are 1 in 146,107,962
if you notice,the odds are about half the population.
that means if every person in the u.s.bought one powerball ticket.
only 2 people would win.and they would split the 15 million prize.
my pool will covor all 42 powerball numbers each drawing.
twice a week 52 weeks a year.to buy more tickets would be a waste.
not to covor each powerball number would be a waste.
play smart,get in a pool.dont waste the money God has given you.

The odds of winning the grand prize in powerball are 1 in 146,107,962.00The game sold $2,821,073,017 in FY06 (July 1, 2005 to June 30, 2006).The game sold $2,503,651,244 in FY07The odds of winning the grand prize if you covor all 42 numbers each week are greatly Increased on that one winning ticket. To 1 in 3,563,608.83(same as the odds for matching 5 of 5.)Ever notice how its pools that often win?Is this the reason?your chances are 4,100%better of winning in a pool that covors all POWERBALL numbers than playing 100$ worth of quick picks at 100 in 146,107,962.00 odds.

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