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Quick Picks can't match the power of Self Picks

Topic closed. 97 replies. Last post 9 years ago by JADELottery.

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Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
Zeta Reticuli Star System
United States
Member #30470
January 17, 2006
10391 Posts
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Posted: December 6, 2007, 2:12 am - IP Logged

I don't mean to get between 2 posters that I like but I do have an opinion.   It didn't take me long after becoming a member to realize that people on this forum tend to do much better than normal lottery players that choose quick-picks.

Coin Toss, if I understand this thread at all, I believe it is not about showing a profit per se.  It is simply a question of which gives you more winning tickets - and self-picks wins as far as I am concerned.   You seem to be saying that self-picks do not show a profit - and you might be right - but this isn't some kind of system to profit from either quick-picks or self-picks.  It is just a comparison of 2 ways of buying a ticket and determining which gives you more winning numbers.   One can only hope that when you get more winners, even without showing a profit that with a little luck, you will get that one that gives you the profit eventually.

truecritic

Well I guess I'm a different breed of cat than a lot of people here then because looking at any lottery jackpot game as anything other than a $1 lark that might "run a toothpick into a lumber yard" is economic suicide. 

This is a huge board with a lot of lurkers and considering that the title of this thread is deceptive. People checking out this board aren't looking for "ingenius" ways of hitting 3, 4, and 5 out of 6 or 3 or 4 out of 5 + 1 games.

Justxploring

You may have inadvertenly came yup with the sig of the year!

"There's no such thing as a 'normal' lottery player"

Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

Lep

There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

    truecritic's avatar - PirateTreasure
    Michigan
    United States
    Member #22395
    September 24, 2005
    1583 Posts
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    Posted: December 6, 2007, 2:14 am - IP Logged

     people on this forum tend to do much better than normal lottery players that choose quick-picks.

    True Critic - are you talking about all games, including the jackpot games or only the pick-3 and pick-4 games?  Has anyone ever picked all of the PB or MM numbers or even 5/5 or all 6 numbers in a state lottery?  Just curious.

    BTW, there's no such thing as a 'normal' lottery player. Yes Nod

    I struggled with a choice of a word other than "normal" - I mean to simply imply people that I see on the street/stores that play quick picks.

    Although they did not bet money, yes, people on here have had winning numbers for Jackpot games.   Off the top of my head, couldn't tell you who (LottoMike?) (Jack or maybe Win D?).  Sure they might have been part of that group you mention, that chose 100s of numbers, but they did hit.

      Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
      Zeta Reticuli Star System
      United States
      Member #30470
      January 17, 2006
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      Posted: December 6, 2007, 1:26 pm - IP Logged

      "but they did hit."

      Well, they woulda hit- you bet your mind uyou lose your mind.

      This "winning" while actually showing a loss brings a character in Catch-22 to mind, I think it was Milo Minderebinder.

      Milo decided to go into business for himself on the black market, and was getting everything he could get his hands on and selling it at a loss. Yossrian asked him how he could sell every item at a loss and make a profit and Milo said, "I make it up in volume."

      Good luck everyone.  

      Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

      Lep

      There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

        Avatar
        NY
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        Member #23835
        October 16, 2005
        3502 Posts
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        Posted: December 6, 2007, 3:48 pm - IP Logged

        Yes, and there are games that were won where the total score was comprised of only field goals. From what I can read, it is you who are not understanding it.

        I understand it just fine. He never said it isn't theoretically possible, but you haven't claimed to turn a profit, which would be the analogy to winning with nothing but field goals.  If what you "win" is less than what you bet, you lose. You're free to think that you're doing well or that you're getting closer, but you're deluding yourself if you think you're winningwhen you aren't even breaking even. 

          Avatar
          NY
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          Posted: December 6, 2007, 3:50 pm - IP Logged

          No,  actually you are another who isn't understanding the point being made.  You need to read and COMPREHEND the subject matter.  The statement:

          " but what you're also missing is that even $50 per drawing gives you statistics that are meaningless in a game with half a million or more combinations."

          is a meaningless irrelevant statement to the subject at hand.

          Have you  heard of an election "poll"?  How are polls done?  Do they call everybody? No they don't, they take a sample.  They derive conclusions out to the millions from a few hundred to a few thousand. 

          This test is similar, if the same number of self-picks are played against the same number of QP's, an equivalent test is made.

          It's not at all meaningless, and though you seem to have missed it, by bringing up election polls you're acknowledging with my point. Election polls typically look at  thousands of voters. A poll of a few hundred has a margin of error that's bigger than the split in typical elections, and therefore offers no useful information.  If you want statistics that are valid you'll need to  look at a few thousand QP's and self picks side by side. 

            JADELottery's avatar - YingYangYong 01.PNG
            The Quantum Master
            West Concord, MN
            United States
            Member #21
            December 7, 2001
            3684 Posts
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            Posted: December 7, 2007, 4:40 am - IP Logged

            Below is the final tally for Experiment 1 and following is the early results for Experiment 2. Experiment 2 is approaching the number selection a little differently. I ask that many of you interested in this post and those of you mildly interested please pay close attention to the WI Badger 5. This post is going to morph into something amazing.

            Experiment 1
            Data Stream ChronoBadger 5 SelectedWheel Numbers Derived from Previous Day SelectionWheel Distribution of Matched Numbers
            IndexYearMonthDayABCDE123456789101112012345
            02007104116192224------------------
            1200710562425283111121314151617181920212250     
            220071062324252728171819202122232425262728 1225103 
            3200710725714282021222324252627282930312921    
            420071086172325316789101112131415161715287   
            52007109471527281516171819202122232425262921    
            62007101035122021111213141516171819202122923162  
            720071011347132478910111213141516171815287   
            820071012128233156789101112131415162921    
            920071013191422318910111213141516171819192110   
            102007101449121621101112131415161718192021628133  
            112007101515615257891011121314151617182921    
            122007101668192324567891011121314151613334   
            13200710174101625281112131415161718192021222921    
            14200710187910182211121314151617181920212216268   
            152007101911121820318910111213141516171819824162  
            16200710202815202613141516171819202122232417249   
            1720071021811131727910111213141516171819201019192  
            182007102221019232810111213141516171819202115287   
            1920071023292223281112131415161718192021222921    
            2020071024111121830111213141516171819202122823181  
            212007102535113031910111213141516171819202921    
            222007102661720273111121314151617181920212216268   
            23200710276789211516171819202122232425262921    
            2420071028120212528567891011121314151650     
            2520071029715222526141516171819202122232425725171  
            2620071030620222329141516171819202122232425626171  
            27200710313478221516171819202122232425262921    
            2820071111172225263456789101112131450     
            2920071122710182013141516171819202122232414306   
            302007113214202729678910111213141516172921    
            312007114812141722131415161718192021222324823181  
            322007115782728319101112131415161718192050     
            332007116341929311516171819202122232425262921    
            34200711711115163012131415161718192021222314306   
            3520071183671029910111213141516171819203020    
            362007119281322266789101112131415161717249   
            37200711104911202891011121314151617181920627152  
            3820071111131520303191011121314151617181920920201  
            392007111211015212216171819202122232425262715287   
            40200711132615263089101112131415161718192921    
            41200711146917202210111213141516171819202114315   
            4220071115891622309101112131415161718192016268   
            43200711161214172730121314151617181920212223726143  
            44200711172914182215161718192021222324252616268   
            45200711187111625318910111213141516171819201812   
            46200711194919202813141516171819202122232415287   
            472007112010222325291112131415161718192021222921    
            482007112157814271617181920212223242526272921    
            492007112211016293078910111213141516171816268   
            50200711233511273012131415161718192021222350     
            512007112416131516101112131415161718192021724181  
            522007112513111317567891011121314151614306   
            532007112661117182045678910111213141517249   
            54200711271823242528910111213141516171819202921    
            55200711282418253018192021222324252627282916268   
            5620071129111423283010111213141516171819202115296   
            5720071130102426303116171819202122232425262717258   
            5820071214172025271920212223242526272829301019201  
            59200712235810141314151617181920212223243020    
            6020071235610252934567891011121314921182  

            Experiment 2 does not rely on any previously drawn data. For the first 7 days, a wheel using 13 numbers for 50 play lines is used. The wheel will always have the exact same numbers plugged into it; they are {10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22}. After the initial 7 days, a randomly selected wheel with a different combinatorial set, the same numbers and number of play lines is used. There are a total set of 10 wheels numbered 0 to 9, as indicated by the W column in the Wheel and Match Data heading. When the selected lottery numbers match the wheel numbers, the quantity of correctly matched numbers is indicated the M column under the heading Wheel and Match Data. Each day's wheel will be posted in the Lottery Post's predictions board.

            Experiment 2
            Data Stream ChronoBadger 5 Selected NumbersWheel and Match DataWheel Distribution of Matched Numbers
            IndexYearMonthDayABCDEWM012345
            1200712424111522031223114  
            220071251292029013119    
            32007126412141620046182042 
            42007127     0       
            52007128     0       
            62007129     0       
            720071210     0       
            820071211     9       
            920071212     0       
            1020071213     4       

            Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
            Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
            Use at your own risk.

            Order is a Subset of Chaos
            Knowledge is Beyond Belief
            Wisdom is Not Censored
            Douglas Paul Smallish
            Jehocifer

              JADELottery's avatar - YingYangYong 01.PNG
              The Quantum Master
              West Concord, MN
              United States
              Member #21
              December 7, 2001
              3684 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: December 7, 2007, 4:46 am - IP Logged

              Also, here are the actual payouts for the Wheel Distribution of Matched Numbers. Just multiply the amount by the number matched in the corresponding column of the Wheel Distribution of Matched Numbers.

              012345
              $0.00$0.00$1.00$2.00$50.00$10,000.00+

              Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
              Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
              Use at your own risk.

              Order is a Subset of Chaos
              Knowledge is Beyond Belief
              Wisdom is Not Censored
              Douglas Paul Smallish
              Jehocifer

                JADELottery's avatar - YingYangYong 01.PNG
                The Quantum Master
                West Concord, MN
                United States
                Member #21
                December 7, 2001
                3684 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: December 10, 2007, 12:47 am - IP Logged

                This post has morphed ---> http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/167260

                Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
                Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
                Use at your own risk.

                Order is a Subset of Chaos
                Knowledge is Beyond Belief
                Wisdom is Not Censored
                Douglas Paul Smallish
                Jehocifer