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Quick Picks can't match the power of Self Picks

Topic closed. 97 replies. Last post 9 years ago by JADELottery.

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JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
The Quantum Master
West Concord, MN
United States
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December 7, 2001
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Posted: December 5, 2007, 1:17 am - IP Logged

Yeah, ok, silly me, I was going by the subject title and assumed the idea was to get the ball into the end zone, didn't know we were playing for 2 and 3 point scores.

Have fun.  

Yeah, and just think, games have been won with just 3 point field goals, because that's all it takes. How about that? Our point exactly! Great job in demonstrating that you don't need to win the Jackpot to be considered a winner. We all are, even the ones less than the Jackpot.

Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
Use at your own risk.

Order is a Subset of Chaos
Knowledge is Beyond Belief
Wisdom is Not Censored
Douglas Paul Smallish
Jehocifer

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    Posted: December 5, 2007, 3:12 am - IP Logged

    Yeah, and just think, games have been won with just 3 point field goals, because that's all it takes. How about that? Our point exactly! Great job in demonstrating that you don't need to win the Jackpot to be considered a winner. We all are, even the ones less than the Jackpot.

    The point he's making, and that you aren't understanding is that it's the total score that counts, not who made more field goals or who gained more yards.  You can gaintwice as many yards and make twice as many field goals and still lose.

    Some of your individual tickets may be winners, but spending $50 to "win" $20 makes you a loser.  Whether you lost more or less than somebody else is a different matter, but what you're also missing is that even $50 per drawing gives you statistics that are meaningless in a game with half a million or more combinations.
     

      JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
      The Quantum Master
      West Concord, MN
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      Posted: December 5, 2007, 3:20 am - IP Logged

      The point he's making, and that you aren't understanding is that it's the total score that counts, not who made more field goals or who gained more yards.  You can gaintwice as many yards and make twice as many field goals and still lose.

      Some of your individual tickets may be winners, but spending $50 to "win" $20 makes you a loser.  Whether you lost more or less than somebody else is a different matter, but what you're also missing is that even $50 per drawing gives you statistics that are meaningless in a game with half a million or more combinations.
       

      Yes, and there are games that were won where the total score was comprised of only field goals. From what I can read, it is you who are not understanding it.

      Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
      Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
      Use at your own risk.

      Order is a Subset of Chaos
      Knowledge is Beyond Belief
      Wisdom is Not Censored
      Douglas Paul Smallish
      Jehocifer

        jarasan's avatar - new patrick.gif
        Harbinger
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        Posted: December 5, 2007, 11:15 am - IP Logged

        The point he's making, and that you aren't understanding is that it's the total score that counts, not who made more field goals or who gained more yards.  You can gaintwice as many yards and make twice as many field goals and still lose.

        Some of your individual tickets may be winners, but spending $50 to "win" $20 makes you a loser.  Whether you lost more or less than somebody else is a different matter, but what you're also missing is that even $50 per drawing gives you statistics that are meaningless in a game with half a million or more combinations.
         

        No,  actually you are another who isn't understanding the point being made.  You need to read and COMPREHEND the subject matter.  The statement:

        " but what you're also missing is that even $50 per drawing gives you statistics that are meaningless in a game with half a million or more combinations."

        is a meaningless irrelevant statement to the subject at hand.

        Have you  heard of an election "poll"?  How are polls done?  Do they call everybody? No they don't, they take a sample.  They derive conclusions out to the millions from a few hundred to a few thousand. 

        This test is similar, if the same number of self-picks are played against the same number of QP's, an equivalent test is made.

          Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
          Zeta Reticuli Star System
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          Posted: December 5, 2007, 11:41 am - IP Logged

          Perhaps a more accurate title for this thread would have been

          Quick Picks Can't Match the Power of Self Picks if You Want to Grind Out Lower Tier Prizes and Call Yourslef A Winner - Even if the end of the day is a - and not a +.

          In gambling cirlces such players are called grinders and are seen as no threat to the house whatsoever. If they win, they blow it back, if they lose they come back with more of their own $, but they come back.

          Since stats seem to be so popular in this thread, let's see a year-end total of all the -$50s and + $22s, might be interesting. 

          "Dear Governor,

          Here's $50 that I absolutely can't stand having, please take it.  I sent it to you via the Lotto commission, sometimes they send me $22 back, but I love giving you the $50."

          Re: Field goal kickers, yeah, they're worth their weigth in gold and decide a lot of games. Often the team winning by a field goal doesn't cover the spread, by the way. Show me a championship team that only scored field goals throughout the season though, and then you might have something.

          Other than THAT, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the stage play?

          Smile

          Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

          Lep

          There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

            JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
            The Quantum Master
            West Concord, MN
            United States
            Member #21
            December 7, 2001
            3675 Posts
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            Posted: December 5, 2007, 4:19 pm - IP Logged

            Perhaps a more accurate title for this thread would have been

            Quick Picks Can't Match the Power of Self Picks if You Want to Grind Out Lower Tier Prizes and Call Yourslef A Winner - Even if the end of the day is a - and not a +.

            In gambling cirlces such players are called grinders and are seen as no threat to the house whatsoever. If they win, they blow it back, if they lose they come back with more of their own $, but they come back.

            Since stats seem to be so popular in this thread, let's see a year-end total of all the -$50s and + $22s, might be interesting. 

            "Dear Governor,

            Here's $50 that I absolutely can't stand having, please take it.  I sent it to you via the Lotto commission, sometimes they send me $22 back, but I love giving you the $50."

            Re: Field goal kickers, yeah, they're worth their weigth in gold and decide a lot of games. Often the team winning by a field goal doesn't cover the spread, by the way. Show me a championship team that only scored field goals throughout the season though, and then you might have something.

            Other than THAT, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the stage play?

            Smile

            'Quick Picks Can't Match the Power of Self Picks if You Want to Grind Out Lower Tier Prizes and Call Yourslef A Winner - Even if the end of the day is a - and not a +.'

            Perhaps, but it wasn't and it's not only correct, it's proved.

            'Re: Field goal kickers, yeah, they're worth their weigth in gold and decide a lot of games. Often the team winning by a field goal doesn't cover the spread, by the way. Show me a championship team that only scored field goals throughout the season though, and then you might have something.'

            Here we see a retro fit, your original posted comment helped our case, now the rethinking. Nice of you to to now add in championship when your original sad attempt at a supporting thought never mentioned winning championships. Yadda-yadda, deflect... yadda-yadda, and then that's supposed to make things all better for your case, not.

            Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
            Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
            Use at your own risk.

            Order is a Subset of Chaos
            Knowledge is Beyond Belief
            Wisdom is Not Censored
            Douglas Paul Smallish
            Jehocifer

              jarasan's avatar - new patrick.gif
              Harbinger
              D.C./MD.
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              July 30, 2006
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              Posted: December 5, 2007, 6:00 pm - IP Logged

              Perhaps a more accurate title for this thread would have been

              Quick Picks Can't Match the Power of Self Picks if You Want to Grind Out Lower Tier Prizes and Call Yourslef A Winner - Even if the end of the day is a - and not a +.

              In gambling cirlces such players are called grinders and are seen as no threat to the house whatsoever. If they win, they blow it back, if they lose they come back with more of their own $, but they come back.

              Since stats seem to be so popular in this thread, let's see a year-end total of all the -$50s and + $22s, might be interesting. 

              "Dear Governor,

              Here's $50 that I absolutely can't stand having, please take it.  I sent it to you via the Lotto commission, sometimes they send me $22 back, but I love giving you the $50."

              Re: Field goal kickers, yeah, they're worth their weigth in gold and decide a lot of games. Often the team winning by a field goal doesn't cover the spread, by the way. Show me a championship team that only scored field goals throughout the season though, and then you might have something.

              Other than THAT, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the stage play?

              Smile

              "In gambling cirlces such players are called grinders and are seen as no threat to the house whatsoever. If they win, they blow it back, if they lose they come back with more of their own $, but they come back."

              There is a gambling circle of sorts on this forum under jackpots, the MADDOG challenges.  I believe they are a good indicator of predictors, a level playing field.  There is also a predictions section, I don't see CToss or KYFloyd with nary a prediction on either, hmmmmm.....

              Instead of grinding this post and trying to change the topic at hand, start a thread that teaches us how to buy and win with Quick Picks, even the small winners.

              I'll give some hints on your new thread for selecting QP's to be featured in the Mathematical Section:  Maybe call it "Mrs. Lincoln's Quick Pick Hints"

              Time of day?

              Location of purchase?

              Separate tickets or individual tickets?

              Should one close their eyes and wish real hard when they buy their Quick Picks?

              Should one be polite or just matter of fact?

              How often should you buy Qp's?

              Should I buy an even/odd number of QP's? Etc.

              Hope this helps.

              P.S. It is funny how many views those challenges get when there are relatively few posting their predictions. Wonder if they are looking for Quick Pick ideas?

               Take care of your monkeys.

                Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                Zeta Reticuli Star System
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                Posted: December 5, 2007, 7:20 pm - IP Logged

                JADE Lottery said they enjoyed debates so I said I'd play along.

                "There is also a predictions section, I don't see CToss or KYFloyd with nary a prediction on either, hmmmmm....."

                I prefer a different site for such things:

                I once posted the link here but it got squelched as such things seem to be verboten, too bad since they have a survivor contest, pays $10,000 for 21 straight winners. My best streak so far was 9 in a row for a hat. What the heck, it's free:

                Coin Toss:

                NFL 
                Record: 49-27-1
                Units: +9980
                Overall Rank: 163
                Percentile: 99

                (not real bets, for fun).

                It used to be called fun bets and changed hands.  Take it from there. 

                Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                Lep

                There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

                  justxploring's avatar - villiarna
                  Wandering Aimlessly
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                  Posted: December 5, 2007, 8:10 pm - IP Logged

                   "There is also a predictions section, I don't see CToss or KYFloyd with nary a prediction on either, hmmmmm....."

                  I don't post them either.  One reason is that I have no proof my "system" (if any) is really a winner, since I haven't hit a jackpot or even 5 numbers to show my fellow members.  When I see predictions and a member says "Wow, I won!" but has no ticket to scan and post, I shrug my shoulders.  If it was real money I'd be very happy for him/her. I truly apologize if I am offending anyone, but can you imagine someone standing at a casino and "predicting" 10 numbers that were going to come up on the wheel and they finally did after a few hours.  Who would say "congratulations?" 

                  I think Todd provides a wonderful board and I respect everyone who uses the tools LP offers. I am often amazed and impressed by the members who have advanced mathematical & analytical skills that are difficult for me to comprehend.  So I certainly am not one to judge.  But anyone can post 100 combinations and get lucky once in a while.

                    JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
                    The Quantum Master
                    West Concord, MN
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                    Member #21
                    December 7, 2001
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                    Posted: December 5, 2007, 8:38 pm - IP Logged

                    JADE Lottery said they enjoyed debates so I said I'd play along.

                    "There is also a predictions section, I don't see CToss or KYFloyd with nary a prediction on either, hmmmmm....."

                    I prefer a different site for such things:

                    I once posted the link here but it got squelched as such things seem to be verboten, too bad since they have a survivor contest, pays $10,000 for 21 straight winners. My best streak so far was 9 in a row for a hat. What the heck, it's free:

                    Coin Toss:

                    NFL 
                    Record: 49-27-1
                    Units: +9980
                    Overall Rank: 163
                    Percentile: 99

                    (not real bets, for fun).

                    It used to be called fun bets and changed hands.  Take it from there. 

                    When you stop going off on a tangent, we'll battle. This is about the Pick 5 topics you've been admittedly promoting by posting only jackpots and not considering the lower tier wins. You keep moving the attention away from the original Pick 5 QP vs SP. From what I can read, you seem more like the snotty kid, who when he's knows he's losing the battle, he throws in off topic issues, saying with a childish condescending tone, "Yeah, but what about this? Nah, nah... nah. Yeah, what about that?" Even though there may be some low level relationship, it's has no functional use other than deflection, interceding with something as if we now need to debate a topic of relevance, but it has no binding relevance. I present analogy only as a point of similarity, not as the all encompassing supporting case. If that analogy doesn't pan out, I don't keep beating it to death till it some how sticks. Get over it, you keep bringing it up, but it's going nowhere and is way off topic.

                    Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
                    Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
                    Use at your own risk.

                    Order is a Subset of Chaos
                    Knowledge is Beyond Belief
                    Wisdom is Not Censored
                    Douglas Paul Smallish
                    Jehocifer

                      jarasan's avatar - new patrick.gif
                      Harbinger
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                      Posted: December 5, 2007, 8:57 pm - IP Logged

                       "There is also a predictions section, I don't see CToss or KYFloyd with nary a prediction on either, hmmmmm....."

                      I don't post them either.  One reason is that I have no proof my "system" (if any) is really a winner, since I haven't hit a jackpot or even 5 numbers to show my fellow members.  When I see predictions and a member says "Wow, I won!" but has no ticket to scan and post, I shrug my shoulders.  If it was real money I'd be very happy for him/her. I truly apologize if I am offending anyone, but can you imagine someone standing at a casino and "predicting" 10 numbers that were going to come up on the wheel and they finally did after a few hours.  Who would say "congratulations?" 

                      I think Todd provides a wonderful board and I respect everyone who uses the tools LP offers. I am often amazed and impressed by the members who have advanced mathematical & analytical skills that are difficult for me to comprehend.  So I certainly am not one to judge.  But anyone can post 100 combinations and get lucky once in a while.

                      I guess there is a presumption that everything is a debate on this forum. 

                      JX says:

                      "But anyone can post 100 combinations and get lucky once in a while."

                      Wow.  You are right.

                      But if you look and examine more closely though, for eg. at  Jackpots/MADDOGS challenges' statistics maintained by FJA, one will find that the challenges track and contain prediction results data for more than a year.  You will find that some predictors don't just get lucky once in while, they get lucky regularly. I get lucky regularly and it makes me happy. Wink  Aside from that, the stats. found there are very informative, for eg. if I knew nothing, I would use numbers to play Powerball/Mega Millions from the any of the top ten predictors before I would use numbers from the bottom ten.  There is almost a full years' worth of compiled data that paints a clear picture of the best and worst predictors. It isn't all luck, once in a while.

                      That is proof, right there in front of you, go look.

                       P.S. Now I must go do sum figuring for my PBall numbers.

                        Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                        Zeta Reticuli Star System
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                        Posted: December 5, 2007, 10:55 pm - IP Logged

                        Jarasan

                        Since I'm saying quick picks produce more winners than picked numbers, and since I'm saying most people playhiping to win a jackpot, why would I make predictions?

                        A good 80% of predictions made here aren't played, anyway, and some people make so many predictions they couldn't afford to play them.  

                        "It isn't all luck, once in a while."

                        Hoping for that "once in a while" is itself hoping for luck.

                        May you have 5 1/2 point favorites in sudden death OT when the FG kicker comes in.

                        Lep

                        Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                        Lep

                        There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

                          jarasan's avatar - new patrick.gif
                          Harbinger
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                          Posted: December 5, 2007, 11:17 pm - IP Logged

                          Jarasan

                          Since I'm saying quick picks produce more winners than picked numbers, and since I'm saying most people playhiping to win a jackpot, why would I make predictions?

                          A good 80% of predictions made here aren't played, anyway, and some people make so many predictions they couldn't afford to play them.  

                          "It isn't all luck, once in a while."

                          Hoping for that "once in a while" is itself hoping for luck.

                          May you have 5 1/2 point favorites in sudden death OT when the FG kicker comes in.

                          Lep

                          Nobody disputes QP's win more because they are played more, that is correct, because there are more QP's played than SP's by far.

                          But if you are going to actually play, you'll do better with self picks, I always have. 

                          I actually play.

                            truecritic's avatar - PirateTreasure
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                            Posted: December 5, 2007, 11:26 pm - IP Logged

                            I don't mean to get between 2 posters that I like but I do have an opinion.   It didn't take me long after becoming a member to realize that people on this forum tend to do much better than normal lottery players that choose quick-picks.

                            Coin Toss, if I understand this thread at all, I believe it is not about showing a profit per se.  It is simply a question of which gives you more winning tickets - and self-picks wins as far as I am concerned.   You seem to be saying that self-picks do not show a profit - and you might be right - but this isn't some kind of system to profit from either quick-picks or self-picks.  It is just a comparison of 2 ways of buying a ticket and determining which gives you more winning numbers.   One can only hope that when you get more winners, even without showing a profit that with a little luck, you will get that one that gives you the profit eventually.

                              justxploring's avatar - villiarna
                              Wandering Aimlessly
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                              Posted: December 6, 2007, 1:49 am - IP Logged

                               people on this forum tend to do much better than normal lottery players that choose quick-picks.

                              True Critic - are you talking about all games, including the jackpot games or only the pick-3 and pick-4 games?  Has anyone ever picked all of the PB or MM numbers or even 5/5 or all 6 numbers in a state lottery?  Just curious.

                              BTW, there's no such thing as a 'normal' lottery player. Yes Nod