Welcome Guest
Log In | Register )
You last visited December 8, 2016, 10:44 pm
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

In the ongoing quick picks discussions...

Topic closed. 36 replies. Last post 9 years ago by guesser.

Page 1 of 3
4.52
PrintE-mailLink
Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
Zeta Reticuli Star System
United States
Member #30470
January 17, 2006
10353 Posts
Offline
Posted: September 12, 2007, 6:35 pm - IP Logged

(I'm putting this here because it's more about Quick Pick vs individual number selection)

Illinois Little Lotto paid out $1,150,000 to a quick pick last night.

It's a Pick 5 game and the jackpot starts at $100,000. Obviously it didn't get hit for a few draws to get to over one million.

With a Pick 5 game and a jackpot that high it's a pretty good guess that a lot of people were playing more than they normally play on it, and you can also bet that the systems players were playing heavier, too.

Yet, what won?:

 LITTLE LOTTO PRIZE PAYOUTS FOR TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 11, 2007

WINNING NUMBERS: 02 - 18 - 19 - 23 - 36

PLAYER(S) MATCHING 5 OF 5 NUMBERS
INCLUDING SUBSCRIPTION WINNERS: 1
EACH PLAYER WILL RECEIVE: $1,150,000.00

WINNING TICKET(S) WERE SOLD AT:

102670 NEW OPEN PANTRY (QP)

 

Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

Lep

There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

    Guru101's avatar - rw6jhh
    Indiana
    United States
    Member #48725
    January 7, 2007
    1954 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: September 12, 2007, 6:58 pm - IP Logged

    (I'm putting this here because it's more about Quick Pick vs individual number selection)

    Illinois Little Lotto paid out $1,150,000 to a quick pick last night.

    It's a Pick 5 game and the jackpot starts at $100,000. Obviously it didn't get hit for a few draws to get to over one million.

    With a Pick 5 game and a jackpot that high it's a pretty good guess that a lot of people were playing more than they normally play on it, and you can also bet that the systems players were playing heavier, too.

    Yet, what won?:

     LITTLE LOTTO PRIZE PAYOUTS FOR TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 11, 2007

    WINNING NUMBERS: 02 - 18 - 19 - 23 - 36

    PLAYER(S) MATCHING 5 OF 5 NUMBERS
    INCLUDING SUBSCRIPTION WINNERS: 1
    EACH PLAYER WILL RECEIVE: $1,150,000.00

    WINNING TICKET(S) WERE SOLD AT:

    102670 NEW OPEN PANTRY (QP)

     

    That's a nice payout for a Pick 5 game, but this doesn't really prove anything against self picks. If 90% of all tickets sold are quick picks, then a quick pick is more likely to win.

    Gonna win.Big Smile

      Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
      Zeta Reticuli Star System
      United States
      Member #30470
      January 17, 2006
      10353 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: September 12, 2007, 7:07 pm - IP Logged

      True, but wouldn't you think with thsat kind of payout for a Pick 5 (5/39) a lot more people with 'theories' were taking the jump from 'paper trading' to live action?

      There was probably a lot more non-quick picks played than usual but yet it was still a QP that won it.

      For this game, anyway, it looks like QP + Luck is "King"! 

      Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

      Lep

      There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

        Avatar

        United States
        Member #41846
        June 23, 2006
        459 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: September 12, 2007, 8:04 pm - IP Logged

        Whether you are playing pick3 or pick 5 luck is the biggest factor.

        you can do several things to inprove your chance of winning but in the end unless you cover every possibility you are depending on fate/luck/karma, or whatever you choose to call it, to make yours the winning combination. 

        p8 

          guesser's avatar - Lottery-017.jpg

          United States
          Member #41383
          June 16, 2006
          1969 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: September 12, 2007, 9:49 pm - IP Logged

          Powerball: 

          The numbers still out there are 70% of all winners are QP's, and 70% of all sales are QP's, so that is inline with what a person should expect.

          Still, I don't like QP's because I've bought a few before, and I don't like the odds: I've been sold 5/0's and 0/5 splits, with numbers like 12-13-14-16-20, and so on, and those rarely hit (Yes, I know, all it takes is just one time for that to hit..), but still, if the odds are 68% towards a 2/3 or 3/2, the odds are about 8% on a 5/0 or 0/5, I like my 68% odds better.

           

          (split = take the 55 white balls, split them into two, 1-27 and 28-55, how many numbers come from each half). 

            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
            mid-Ohio
            United States
            Member #9
            March 24, 2001
            19830 Posts
            Online
            Posted: September 12, 2007, 10:54 pm - IP Logged

            True, but wouldn't you think with thsat kind of payout for a Pick 5 (5/39) a lot more people with 'theories' were taking the jump from 'paper trading' to live action?

            There was probably a lot more non-quick picks played than usual but yet it was still a QP that won it.

            For this game, anyway, it looks like QP + Luck is "King"! 

            I don't understand the point you are trying to make about players picking their own numbers.  Are you saying numbers picked by players are less likely to win than those picked randomly by a terminal?  Do players have a bias that make them more likely to eliminate the winning numbers from their picks?  It seems like luck is a factor either way but luck favors the side with the most tickets.

             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
               
                         Evil Looking       

              four4me's avatar - gate1
              MD
              United States
              Member #1701
              June 18, 2003
              8362 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: September 12, 2007, 11:09 pm - IP Logged

              The overall majority of players choose Q picks because it easier. In todays hurried lifestyle most people don't have time to fill out a play slip.

              It simply easier to say give me a quick pick.

              Those people who choose their own numbers do so because they have a gut feeling about their picks are probably regular lottery players or play the same numbers every day. Then there are the 1% who might play a wheel.

              Big John says. You don't hit the number. The number hits you!!!!

                             I'm not Big John, I'm Four4me, Big John's a friend.
                Guru101's avatar - rw6jhh
                Indiana
                United States
                Member #48725
                January 7, 2007
                1954 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: September 12, 2007, 11:12 pm - IP Logged

                I don't understand the point you are trying to make about players picking their own numbers.  Are you saying numbers picked by players are less likely to win than those picked randomly by a terminal?  Do players have a bias that make them more likely to eliminate the winning numbers from their picks?  It seems like luck is a factor either way but luck favors the side with the most tickets.

                That is correct. If you had 1 person that represented all the people who bought quick picks, and 1 person who represented all the people who bought self picks, the person with the quick picks would win majority of the time.

                Gonna win.Big Smile

                  Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                  Zeta Reticuli Star System
                  United States
                  Member #30470
                  January 17, 2006
                  10353 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: September 12, 2007, 11:31 pm - IP Logged

                  I don't understand the point you are trying to make about players picking their own numbers.  Are you saying numbers picked by players are less likely to win than those picked randomly by a terminal?  Do players have a bias that make them more likely to eliminate the winning numbers from their picks?  It seems like luck is a factor either way but luck favors the side with the most tickets.

                  RJOh

                  The point is that for all the tracking and charting and plotting people do it uusually goes for naught and the winning ticket is a QP time after time.

                  So on that sense it's Bang Head

                  People use strategy after strategy, hi-lows, odds/evens, etc...and a QP wins the jackpot. 

                  It's like why bother with anything else.  

                  Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                  Lep

                  There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

                    Guru101's avatar - rw6jhh
                    Indiana
                    United States
                    Member #48725
                    January 7, 2007
                    1954 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: September 12, 2007, 11:55 pm - IP Logged

                    RJOh

                    The point is that for all the tracking and charting and plotting people do it uusually goes for naught and the winning ticket is a QP time after time.

                    So on that sense it's Bang Head

                    People use strategy after strategy, hi-lows, odds/evens, etc...and a QP wins the jackpot. 

                    It's like why bother with anything else.  

                    I'm pretty sure you'll find out.Wink

                    Gonna win.Big Smile

                      Avatar
                      NY
                      United States
                      Member #23835
                      October 16, 2005
                      3474 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: September 13, 2007, 12:12 am - IP Logged

                      True, but wouldn't you think with thsat kind of payout for a Pick 5 (5/39) a lot more people with 'theories' were taking the jump from 'paper trading' to live action?

                      There was probably a lot more non-quick picks played than usual but yet it was still a QP that won it.

                      For this game, anyway, it looks like QP + Luck is "King"! 

                      Maybe there were a lot more self picks played than usual. It's an even safer bet that there were more QP's than usual. We know that when the jackpots get really big a lot of people who don't normally play decide to grab a ticket or five, and the occasional players are  probably more likely to play QP's.  If anything, I'd guess that as the jackpot goes up the percentage of QP's goes up, making it even more likely that a QP will win.

                        Avatar
                        NY
                        United States
                        Member #23835
                        October 16, 2005
                        3474 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: September 13, 2007, 12:16 am - IP Logged

                        Powerball: 

                        The numbers still out there are 70% of all winners are QP's, and 70% of all sales are QP's, so that is inline with what a person should expect.

                        Still, I don't like QP's because I've bought a few before, and I don't like the odds: I've been sold 5/0's and 0/5 splits, with numbers like 12-13-14-16-20, and so on, and those rarely hit (Yes, I know, all it takes is just one time for that to hit..), but still, if the odds are 68% towards a 2/3 or 3/2, the odds are about 8% on a 5/0 or 0/5, I like my 68% odds better.

                         

                        (split = take the 55 white balls, split them into two, 1-27 and 28-55, how many numbers come from each half). 

                        The only way you're going to  have "68% odds" is if you buy all 68% of the combinations that can be made with  2 or 3 odd numbers. The prizes are all for having the same numbers, not having the same pattern.

                          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                          mid-Ohio
                          United States
                          Member #9
                          March 24, 2001
                          19830 Posts
                          Online
                          Posted: September 13, 2007, 12:29 am - IP Logged

                          RJOh

                          The point is that for all the tracking and charting and plotting people do it uusually goes for naught and the winning ticket is a QP time after time.

                          So on that sense it's Bang Head

                          People use strategy after strategy, hi-lows, odds/evens, etc...and a QP wins the jackpot. 

                          It's like why bother with anything else.  

                          I Agree! I agree.  If a player thinks using a strategy to pick a few numbers is as good as picking 10 times as many randomly then he's Bang Head, but many do it for entertainment too.  I for one enjoy picking my own numbers.

                           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                             
                                       Evil Looking       

                            BobP's avatar - bobp avatar.png
                            Dump Water Florida
                            United States
                            Member #380
                            June 5, 2002
                            3104 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: September 13, 2007, 3:03 am - IP Logged

                            All they know is how many people play Quick Pick or select their numbers by some other method which does not always mean a system or software.  Playing family birthdays isn't a system any more then pattern marking is or doing your own random thing.

                            Looking at the IL little lotto draws

                            9/11/2007 02-18-19-23-36
                            9/10/2007 02-05-27-29-39
                            9/9/2007 10-18-20-22-34
                            9/8/2007 04-16-18-19-21
                            9/7/2007 04-19-20-32-36
                            9/6/2007 10-17-18-21-39
                            9/5/2007 01-03-27-29-33
                            9/4/2007 02-04-20-24-25
                            9/3/2007 10-13-21-28-39
                            9/2/2007 01-05-08-13-14
                            9/1/2007 07-09-18-19-28
                            8/31/2007 09-11-33-37-38
                            8/30/2007 01-04-17-19-29
                            8/29/2007 02-06-07-13-21
                            8/28/2007 01-03-09-29-33
                            8/27/2007 10-21-22-23-34
                            8/26/2007 09-14-17-28-29
                            8/25/2007 03-15-23-25-38
                            8/24/2007 17-18-21-27-36
                            8/23/2007 01-04-06-16-37
                            8/22/2007 04-10-13-23-26
                            8/21/2007 04-15-27-30-38
                            8/20/2007 02-05-10-13-32
                            8/19/2007 02-05-13-27-39
                            8/18/2007 03-11-27-32-34
                            8/17/2007 02-15-24-28-39
                            8/16/2007 24-26-28-30-34
                            8/15/2007 13-15-21-30-33
                            8/14/2007 05-11-20-31-36
                            8/13/2007 03-12-13-27-28

                            I don't see any reason why someone shouldn't have picked the winning combination.  BobP

                              Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                              Zeta Reticuli Star System
                              United States
                              Member #30470
                              January 17, 2006
                              10353 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: September 13, 2007, 9:21 am - IP Logged

                              Maybe 575, 757reasons!

                              I guess what I'm trying to say is it's kind of like the parable of the workers in the vineyard- in that Bible story the last guy to show up and work only a short time got paid as much as those who worked all day.

                              So, parelling that, people track results, analyze, plot, scheme, work out odds / evens. "hot" and "cold" numbers - and someone else walks in, gets a Quick Pick, and hits the jackpot. 

                              Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                              Lep

                              There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.