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Magic number # 6 Why?

Topic closed. 18 replies. Last post 9 years ago by Blackapple.

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WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
Stone Mountain*Georgia
United States
Member #828
November 2, 2002
10491 Posts
Offline
Posted: October 14, 2007, 9:24 am - IP Logged

Many years ago I noticed that most groups of numbers would all take turns going away for a time then return.

 Some groups hit on average just like clock work.  OK ...maybe a sloppy clock.  LOL   Never the less they do hit on a pretty dependable time frame.

  Different groups have different hit rates depending on their size of course ...etc. 

  The question is this.... 

 Why do most all of the number groups return ....in or around 6 times their normal math average hit rate?       

  What is it about approaching 6 times over the normal return rate.....that causes these groups to snap back..... no matter how large or small a particular group's average return is? 

 

   Sure ....there are many "stinkers" out there going 7,8,or 10 times over their expected hit rate averages but they are certainly the exceptions. Most follow the game plan and do return before they get to their 6 x times average out time.

    I still use my 6x magic mark with good success ....... but....  I do not know what the Math is behind that presumption.  

    Does anyone want to give it a shot? It's really the basis of almost everything I do in my PICK 3 game and yet I still don't understand. I know how .....just don't know why.  LOL 

 

       Is it a....... Math or is it a Probability question ?   

 

 

The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                              Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                              Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                       Win d    

    eddessaknight's avatar - nw paladin.jpg
    LAS VEGAS
    United States
    Member #47729
    November 22, 2006
    4508 Posts
    Online
    Posted: October 15, 2007, 7:29 pm - IP Logged

    Many years ago I noticed that most groups of numbers would all take turns going away for a time then return.

     Some groups hit on average just like clock work.  OK ...maybe a sloppy clock.  LOL   Never the less they do hit on a pretty dependable time frame.

      Different groups have different hit rates depending on their size of course ...etc. 

      The question is this.... 

     Why do most all of the number groups return ....in or around 6 times their normal math average hit rate?       

      What is it about approaching 6 times over the normal return rate.....that causes these groups to snap back..... no matter how large or small a particular group's average return is? 

     

       Sure ....there are many "stinkers" out there going 7,8,or 10 times over their expected hit rate averages but they are certainly the exceptions. Most follow the game plan and do return before they get to their 6 x times average out time.

        I still use my 6x magic mark with good success ....... but....  I do not know what the Math is behind that presumption.  

        Does anyone want to give it a shot? It's really the basis of almost everything I do in my PICK 3 game and yet I still don't understand. I know how .....just don't know why.  LOL 

     

           Is it a....... Math or is it a Probability question ?   

    @ Win D, et al-

    Thanks for this sharing this discovery-

    I know this response doesn't exactly fit your game plan discription but many bluw moons back I discovered that a repeating number (or expected number) in roulette would hit very often by the 4th, 5th or 6th spins after the original occurance.

    And also agreed not exactly each and every time but above the expected odds.

    Beyond Coincidence???

    US Flag

    EddessaKnight Sun Smiley

      eddessaknight's avatar - nw paladin.jpg
      LAS VEGAS
      United States
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      November 22, 2006
      4508 Posts
      Online
      Posted: October 15, 2007, 8:39 pm - IP Logged

      @ Win D, et al-

      Thanks for this sharing this discovery-

      I know this response doesn't exactly fit your game plan discription but many bluw moons back I discovered that a repeating number (or expected number) in roulette would hit very often by the 4th, 5th or 6th spins after the original occurance.

      And also agreed not exactly each and every time but above the expected odds.

      Beyond Coincidence???

      US Flag

      EddessaKnight Sun Smiley

      Nota Bene;

      Additionally I have ben successful with 6th Choice $$$ Selections with thoroughbred racing  (for those interested, see the record my past performance post sin gaming forum)

       

      EddessaKnight

        Thoth's avatar - binary
        Findlay, Ohio
        United States
        Member #4855
        May 28, 2004
        400 Posts
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        Posted: October 15, 2007, 8:54 pm - IP Logged
        EventOdds6 Times Due7 Times Due
        Root Sum (1-9): 111/10001 in 9.090.99845262040.9994633233
        Digit (Position Specific): 1/101 in 100.99820298970.9993734213
        Straight Pairs: 1/1001 in 1000.99759499070.9991196888
        Straights: 1/10001 in 10000.99752867790.9990913062
        Boxed Pair (no-match) 54/10001 in 18.520.99800562290.9992657436
        Boxed Pair (Double) 28/10001 in 35.720.99777029730.9991978926
        Boxed No-Match1 in 166.670.99758024840.9991089325
        Boxed Double1 in 333.330.99754350080.9990994673

         

        Hey Win D - How Are Ya?

        Heres my take on it.....

        Since average skips usually approximate the odds over the long term, then six times the average skip is close to being out six times the odds.  Look at the probabilities of events out at 6 times their odds...then look at the probabilities for events out 7 time their odds.  While the difference in chance seems small, it's enough to make 63 to 65 percent of those six-times-outers hit before making it to 7...and then some maybe. lol

        ~Probability=Odds in Motion~

          WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
          Stone Mountain*Georgia
          United States
          Member #828
          November 2, 2002
          10491 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: October 16, 2007, 5:46 am - IP Logged
          EventOdds6 Times Due7 Times Due
          Root Sum (1-9): 111/10001 in 9.090.99845262040.9994633233
          Digit (Position Specific): 1/101 in 100.99820298970.9993734213
          Straight Pairs: 1/1001 in 1000.99759499070.9991196888
          Straights: 1/10001 in 10000.99752867790.9990913062
          Boxed Pair (no-match) 54/10001 in 18.520.99800562290.9992657436
          Boxed Pair (Double) 28/10001 in 35.720.99777029730.9991978926
          Boxed No-Match1 in 166.670.99758024840.9991089325
          Boxed Double1 in 333.330.99754350080.9990994673

           

          Hey Win D - How Are Ya?

          Heres my take on it.....

          Since average skips usually approximate the odds over the long term, then six times the average skip is close to being out six times the odds.  Look at the probabilities of events out at 6 times their odds...then look at the probabilities for events out 7 time their odds.  While the difference in chance seems small, it's enough to make 63 to 65 percent of those six-times-outers hit before making it to 7...and then some maybe. lol

          Thanks for your post eddessaknight ....  I appreciate it.

           and Mr Thoth ..... where have you been fella?  If I had your skills ......life sure would be a lot more fun! LOL

           Man .... just look at that chart. What nice work you produce.....  Thank you very much Thoth. 

           

            This sort of research will grow and morph into a whole new game strategy and "Alert" system ...... but it sure as the devil won't come from me or any of my crude attempts .  I am just holding on by my fingernails here... LOL

           Using this to track and trap groups in P-3 such as the ....... All ODD/All EVEN   All High/Low  Consecutive Straights  and the like sure would have winning along the way as a research incentive !  LOL  

           Much Thanks.....   

           

           

          The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                        Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                        Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                                 Win d    

            WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
            Stone Mountain*Georgia
            United States
            Member #828
            November 2, 2002
            10491 Posts
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            Posted: October 16, 2007, 6:54 am - IP Logged

              Here's a queston....

             

                  If you had deep enough pockets.... and were armed with the fact that NO DOUBLES would hit the next day...... and be right 90% of the time ....do you think you could make a living at the PICK -3 game ?

              By the way.... 

                  After several years of watching and over hearing several things over time.....  I believe that there is a man in Atlanta actually making a living based on Doubles that he uses in Pick- 3 to make a good wage here. He plays so many numbers each day...the Store actually lets him enter his own tickets! 

               He is an older man ....  he drives a brand new Mercedes every year and lives in a monster house and owns a lot of real estate around the area. I do know he went to GA Tech many years ago....but that still doesn't mean he couldn't have found a working system anyway. LOL 

               I may be on the verge of getting to see some of this System pretty soon. I'm keeping my fingers crossed.

             

             

            The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                          Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                          Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                                   Win d    

              JAP69's avatar - alas
              South Carolina
              United States
              Member #6
              November 4, 2001
              8790 Posts
              Online
              Posted: October 16, 2007, 8:11 am - IP Logged

                Here's a queston....

               

                    If you had deep enough pockets.... and were armed with the fact that NO DOUBLES would hit the next day...... and be right 90% of the time ....do you think you could make a living at the PICK -3 game ?

                By the way.... 

                    After several years of watching and over hearing several things over time.....  I believe that there is a man in Atlanta actually making a living based on Doubles that he uses in Pick- 3 to make a good wage here. He plays so many numbers each day...the Store actually lets him enter his own tickets! 

                 He is an older man ....  he drives a brand new Mercedes every year and lives in a monster house and owns a lot of real estate around the area. I do know he went to GA Tech many years ago....but that still doesn't mean he couldn't have found a working system anyway. LOL 

                 I may be on the verge of getting to see some of this System pretty soon. I'm keeping my fingers crossed.

              Numbers in groups works well. Just a matter of the right group(s) at the right time.

              Preferably exact order.

              MAGA

                JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
                The Quantum Master
                West Concord, MN
                United States
                Member #21
                December 7, 2001
                3675 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: October 26, 2007, 5:26 am - IP Logged

                WIN D,

                There is a mathematical way to express what you are seeing across these different events. This also relates to two different topics I posted a while back a topic called the Potential Reoccurrence Probability and the Potential Occurrence Probability. Both of these are related, but to show how they are and how this relates to your problem, we'll need to do a little Calculus. The Potential Reoccurrence Probability is the following equation:

                y = e -(x / m)

                x is the difference between the last draw and the current draw and m is the average rate reoccurrence of these differences. y tells what is the probability that an event will reoccur given its average rate of reoccurrence and the draws since its last event. As the number draws increase without a reoccurrence of the event, there is also another probability that the event will occur. This probability is the measure of the work already done by its potential reoccurrence relative by proportion to its average rate of reoccurrence. Every time an event does not occur, it builds up a potential of occurrence by integrating these values through its draw difference. The basic definite integral looks like this. 

                y = m-1 [a to b] ò e -(x / m) dx

                This then becomes

                y = m-1 (-m e -(x / m) ½ [a to b])

                The limits of the integral are then a = 0 and b = x. b is equal to x because we are looking for the occurrence for the same draw difference as our original equation. This works out to the following.

                y = m-1 (-m e -(x / m) ½ [0 to x])

                y = m-1 ((-m e -(x / m)) - (-m e -(0 / m))

                y = m-1 (-m e -(x / m) + m e -(0 / m))

                y = (m / m) (- e -(x / m) + e -(0 / m))

                y = - e -(x / m) + e -(0 / m)

                y = e -(0 / m) - e -(x / m)

                y = 1 - e -(x / m)

                 

                This equation shows the probability an event will occur relative to its last draw and in proportion to the total possible reoccurrences since then to its average rate of reoccurrence. This equation can explain why you are seeing this phenomena of proportion by 6 in most everything. We need to convert this equation into a percentage by multiplying by 100%. Also, when evaluating the equation it's best to round the values to an integer value. In your case, will be looking for when does x by proportion to m is the value of y in percent equal to 100% first and only first to be 100%. In addition, we'll give this proportion an integer value to keep in line with the integer measure of y. The proportion you are looking at is as follows.

                x = n · m

                n is an integer factor that you are looking at and when n = 6 is the phenomena point you are observing. If we substitute in to the potential occurrence equation we get this.

                y = 100% · (1 - e -((n · m) / m))

                This reduces down...

                y = 100% · (1 - e -n)

                This is the general equation that fits for any phenomena because the average rate of reoccurrence factored out and is now relative to your observations in terms of n. n is the number of times the phenomena's average rate of reoccurrence has happened. Now we can apply it to some values and see what happens for any kind of phenomena. Below is a table showing the percentage of total occurrences that have happen since the last draw.

                nPercent
                00%
                163%
                286%
                395%
                498%
                599%
                6100%
                7100%
                8100%
                9100%
                10100%

                As you can see, by time we get to the 6th n value, there will be in every phenomena an integer percentage of 100% occurrence. This is exactly what you are seeing, the magic #6.

                Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
                Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
                Use at your own risk.

                Order is a Subset of Chaos
                Knowledge is Beyond Belief
                Wisdom is Not Censored
                Douglas Paul Smallish
                Jehocifer

                  WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
                  Stone Mountain*Georgia
                  United States
                  Member #828
                  November 2, 2002
                  10491 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: October 27, 2007, 11:39 am - IP Logged

                        God Bless ya Jade....  Thank you very very much. 

                        After many years of wondering about this phenomena ... there really is a basis in fact! 

                        Very nice of you to take them time to work on this Doug and I appreciate it.

                       

                             Chaz

                   

                   

                  The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                                Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                                Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                                         Win d    

                    bashley572's avatar - starwars14
                    West Side of Sunny Florida
                    United States
                    Member #55048
                    September 8, 2007
                    3371 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: October 30, 2007, 5:28 pm - IP Logged

                    WIN D,

                    There is a mathematical way to express what you are seeing across these different events. This also relates to two different topics I posted a while back a topic called the Potential Reoccurrence Probability and the Potential Occurrence Probability. Both of these are related, but to show how they are and how this relates to your problem, we'll need to do a little Calculus. The Potential Reoccurrence Probability is the following equation:

                    y = e -(x / m)

                    x is the difference between the last draw and the current draw and m is the average rate reoccurrence of these differences. y tells what is the probability that an event will reoccur given its average rate of reoccurrence and the draws since its last event. As the number draws increase without a reoccurrence of the event, there is also another probability that the event will occur. This probability is the measure of the work already done by its potential reoccurrence relative by proportion to its average rate of reoccurrence. Every time an event does not occur, it builds up a potential of occurrence by integrating these values through its draw difference. The basic definite integral looks like this. 

                    y = m-1 [a to b] ò e -(x / m) dx

                    This then becomes

                    y = m-1 (-m e -(x / m) ½ [a to b])

                    The limits of the integral are then a = 0 and b = x. b is equal to x because we are looking for the occurrence for the same draw difference as our original equation. This works out to the following.

                    y = m-1 (-m e -(x / m) ½ [0 to x])

                    y = m-1 ((-m e -(x / m)) - (-m e -(0 / m))

                    y = m-1 (-m e -(x / m) + m e -(0 / m))

                    y = (m / m) (- e -(x / m) + e -(0 / m))

                    y = - e -(x / m) + e -(0 / m)

                    y = e -(0 / m) - e -(x / m)

                    y = 1 - e -(x / m)

                     

                    This equation shows the probability an event will occur relative to its last draw and in proportion to the total possible reoccurrences since then to its average rate of reoccurrence. This equation can explain why you are seeing this phenomena of proportion by 6 in most everything. We need to convert this equation into a percentage by multiplying by 100%. Also, when evaluating the equation it's best to round the values to an integer value. In your case, will be looking for when does x by proportion to m is the value of y in percent equal to 100% first and only first to be 100%. In addition, we'll give this proportion an integer value to keep in line with the integer measure of y. The proportion you are looking at is as follows.

                    x = n · m

                    n is an integer factor that you are looking at and when n = 6 is the phenomena point you are observing. If we substitute in to the potential occurrence equation we get this.

                    y = 100% · (1 - e -((n · m) / m))

                    This reduces down...

                    y = 100% · (1 - e -n)

                    This is the general equation that fits for any phenomena because the average rate of reoccurrence factored out and is now relative to your observations in terms of n. n is the number of times the phenomena's average rate of reoccurrence has happened. Now we can apply it to some values and see what happens for any kind of phenomena. Below is a table showing the percentage of total occurrences that have happen since the last draw.

                    nPercent
                    00%
                    163%
                    286%
                    395%
                    498%
                    599%
                    6100%
                    7100%
                    8100%
                    9100%
                    10100%

                    As you can see, by time we get to the 6th n value, there will be in every phenomena an integer percentage of 100% occurrence. This is exactly what you are seeing, the magic #6.

                    SNAP... Crackle ... POP.....

                    That was my brain exploding while I attempted to follow Jades math!!!!

                    Scared

                    Money won is twice as good as money earned!

                      JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
                      The Quantum Master
                      West Concord, MN
                      United States
                      Member #21
                      December 7, 2001
                      3675 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: November 18, 2007, 3:18 am - IP Logged

                      SNAP... Crackle ... POP.....

                      That was my brain exploding while I attempted to follow Jades math!!!!

                      Scared

                      Me too, and just think... they teach this at the high school level too....   OH-NO!  Eek

                      Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
                      Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
                      Use at your own risk.

                      Order is a Subset of Chaos
                      Knowledge is Beyond Belief
                      Wisdom is Not Censored
                      Douglas Paul Smallish
                      Jehocifer

                        jarasan's avatar - new patrick.gif
                        Harbinger
                        D.C./MD.
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                        5583 Posts
                        Online
                        Posted: November 26, 2007, 6:34 pm - IP Logged

                        Me too, and just think... they teach this at the high school level too....   OH-NO!  Eek

                        Advanced high school!  Solving an integral brings back headaches! The notation you use for the limits of the integral is a bit different than what I remember, but still will produce headaches.  Thanks for writing it out.

                          JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
                          The Quantum Master
                          West Concord, MN
                          United States
                          Member #21
                          December 7, 2001
                          3675 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: November 27, 2007, 1:13 pm - IP Logged

                          Advanced high school!  Solving an integral brings back headaches! The notation you use for the limits of the integral is a bit different than what I remember, but still will produce headaches.  Thanks for writing it out.

                          Actually, I wouldn't know anything about 'advanced high school', I'm a dropout. I learned Calculus myself. My son is learning Calculus in high school, he's a senior and doing ok. The notation you see is what the Lottery Post allows you to see, in order to correctly see the notation the LP would have to implement something like MathPlayer in its web programming. I just formatted it as close as possible the way the LP would allow.

                          Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
                          Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
                          Use at your own risk.

                          Order is a Subset of Chaos
                          Knowledge is Beyond Belief
                          Wisdom is Not Censored
                          Douglas Paul Smallish
                          Jehocifer

                            bashley572's avatar - starwars14
                            West Side of Sunny Florida
                            United States
                            Member #55048
                            September 8, 2007
                            3371 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: December 17, 2007, 4:56 pm - IP Logged

                            Ok, so if I understand what you are saying... (and if that is correct I can also fly!) the following table shows what...

                             

                            nPercent
                            00%
                            163%
                            286%
                            395%
                            498%
                            599%
                            6100%
                            7100%
                            8100%
                            9100%
                            10100%

                             

                            Is this based on using the number 6? If you had used a different number what would have happened?

                            Money won is twice as good as money earned!

                              Avatar

                              Honduras
                              Member #20982
                              August 29, 2005
                              4715 Posts
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                              Posted: December 19, 2007, 10:43 pm - IP Logged

                                Here's a queston....

                               

                                    If you had deep enough pockets.... and were armed with the fact that NO DOUBLES would hit the next day...... and be right 90% of the time ....do you think you could make a living at the PICK -3 game ?

                                By the way.... 

                                    After several years of watching and over hearing several things over time.....  I believe that there is a man in Atlanta actually making a living based on Doubles that he uses in Pick- 3 to make a good wage here. He plays so many numbers each day...the Store actually lets him enter his own tickets! 

                                 He is an older man ....  he drives a brand new Mercedes every year and lives in a monster house and owns a lot of real estate around the area. I do know he went to GA Tech many years ago....but that still doesn't mean he couldn't have found a working system anyway. LOL 

                                 I may be on the verge of getting to see some of this System pretty soon. I'm keeping my fingers crossed.

                              Whao that is something WinD...In my town of Columbus, GA, there is an older man who drives a purple nissan pick up truck...I used to always see him redeeming cash3 tickets....Like everyday...

                               

                               

                              "The Lotto Truth is Out There"          taken from context of the movie "The X-Files"