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Magic number # 6 Why?

Topic closed. 18 replies. Last post 9 years ago by Blackapple.

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Lotterologist's avatar - lightbulb
Lotto City, Michigan
United States
Member #36256
March 30, 2006
1472 Posts
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Posted: January 3, 2008, 9:45 am - IP Logged

WIN D,

There is a mathematical way to express what you are seeing across these different events. This also relates to two different topics I posted a while back a topic called the Potential Reoccurrence Probability and the Potential Occurrence Probability. Both of these are related, but to show how they are and how this relates to your problem, we'll need to do a little Calculus. The Potential Reoccurrence Probability is the following equation:

y = e -(x / m)

x is the difference between the last draw and the current draw and m is the average rate reoccurrence of these differences. y tells what is the probability that an event will reoccur given its average rate of reoccurrence and the draws since its last event. As the number draws increase without a reoccurrence of the event, there is also another probability that the event will occur. This probability is the measure of the work already done by its potential reoccurrence relative by proportion to its average rate of reoccurrence. Every time an event does not occur, it builds up a potential of occurrence by integrating these values through its draw difference. The basic definite integral looks like this. 

y = m-1 [a to b] ò e -(x / m) dx

This then becomes

y = m-1 (-m e -(x / m) ½ [a to b])

The limits of the integral are then a = 0 and b = x. b is equal to x because we are looking for the occurrence for the same draw difference as our original equation. This works out to the following.

y = m-1 (-m e -(x / m) ½ [0 to x])

y = m-1 ((-m e -(x / m)) - (-m e -(0 / m))

y = m-1 (-m e -(x / m) + m e -(0 / m))

y = (m / m) (- e -(x / m) + e -(0 / m))

y = - e -(x / m) + e -(0 / m)

y = e -(0 / m) - e -(x / m)

y = 1 - e -(x / m)

 

This equation shows the probability an event will occur relative to its last draw and in proportion to the total possible reoccurrences since then to its average rate of reoccurrence. This equation can explain why you are seeing this phenomena of proportion by 6 in most everything. We need to convert this equation into a percentage by multiplying by 100%. Also, when evaluating the equation it's best to round the values to an integer value. In your case, will be looking for when does x by proportion to m is the value of y in percent equal to 100% first and only first to be 100%. In addition, we'll give this proportion an integer value to keep in line with the integer measure of y. The proportion you are looking at is as follows.

x = n · m

n is an integer factor that you are looking at and when n = 6 is the phenomena point you are observing. If we substitute in to the potential occurrence equation we get this.

y = 100% · (1 - e -((n · m) / m))

This reduces down...

y = 100% · (1 - e -n)

This is the general equation that fits for any phenomena because the average rate of reoccurrence factored out and is now relative to your observations in terms of n. n is the number of times the phenomena's average rate of reoccurrence has happened. Now we can apply it to some values and see what happens for any kind of phenomena. Below is a table showing the percentage of total occurrences that have happen since the last draw.

nPercent
00%
163%
286%
395%
498%
599%
6100%
7100%
8100%
9100%
10100%

As you can see, by time we get to the 6th n value, there will be in every phenomena an integer percentage of 100% occurrence. This is exactly what you are seeing, the magic #6.

Interesting...

    WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
    Stone Mountain*Georgia
    United States
    Member #828
    November 2, 2002
    10491 Posts
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    Posted: January 10, 2008, 12:53 pm - IP Logged

    Here's an interesting ....(off subject) .....subject.

     

    Sync: The Emerging Science of Spontaneous Order

    Steven H. Strogatz
    Theoretical and Applied Mechanics
    Cornell University
    strogatz@cornell.edu
    http://www.tam.cornell.edu/Strogatz.html

    January 7, 2004    7:00 pm     Smith Hall 100

    Talks(A/V)    Talks (Audio)      Photos

    Abstract:

    What caused hundreds of Japanese children to fall into seizures while watching an episode of the cartoon show Pokemon? Why do women roommates sometimes find that their menstrual periods occur in sync?

    The tendency to synchronize is one of the most mysterious and pervasive drives in all of nature. Every night along the tidal rivers of Malaysia, thousands of fireflies flash in silent, hypnotic unison; the moon spins in perfect resonance with its orbit around the Earth; the intense coherence of a laser comes from trillions of atoms pulsing together. All these astonishing feats of synchrony occur spontaneously -- almost as if the universe had an overwhelming desire for order.

    On the surface, these phenomena might seem unrelated. After all, the forces that synchronize fireflies have nothing to do with those in a laser. But at a deeper level, they are all connected by the same mathematical theme: self-organization, the spontaneous emergence of order out of chaos. Steven Strogatz, professor of applied mathematics at Cornell University and author of Sync: The Emerging Science of Spontaneous Order, will convey the excitement of this new field in a lecture aimed at a general audience. He has been hailed as " a gifted and inspiring communicator" (New Scientist) and "a first-rate storyteller and an even better teacher" (Nature). Popular Science called Sync "the most exciting new book of the spring... masterful... a gem."

     

     

    The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                  Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                  Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                           Win d    

      Blackapple's avatar - nw rogue2.jpg
      Wyncote,Pa
      United States
      Member #3206
      January 3, 2004
      61447 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: January 10, 2008, 7:36 pm - IP Logged

      Albert Einstein
      Everything is determined by forces over which we have no control. It is determined for the insect as well as for the star. Human beings, vegetables, or cosmic dust - we all dance to a mysterious tune, intoned in the distance by an invisible piper.

        Blackapple's avatar - nw rogue2.jpg
        Wyncote,Pa
        United States
        Member #3206
        January 3, 2004
        61447 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: January 10, 2008, 7:43 pm - IP Logged

        Albert Einstein
        As far as the laws of mathematics refer to reality, they are not certain, as far as they are certain, they do not refer to reality.