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Which gives me a better chance of winning a lottery?

Topic closed. 117 replies. Last post 9 years ago by time*treat.

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Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
Zeta Reticuli Star System
United States
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Posted: February 17, 2008, 4:12 pm - IP Logged

Well ...I was trying to give a few examples purely based on a statistical or mathematical viewpoint that $100 in one shot is not equal to $50 in two shots ODDSWISE...

i HAVE NEVER heard of numbers being shut out due to payout celings....Are you referring to internet bets??...I would appreciate if you can explain it why or excatly how they would shut out a number like that...

benmas

Let's say it's a given that lotteries are a business and like any business are in business to make money.

As Pac said, 911 and 711 are two of those numbers that get "locked out" if enough people play them. The state lotteries have a payout ceiling or maximum on how much they are going to pay out on Pick 3 or Pick 4 for any given day.

Once enough people have played a number that if it hits that ceiling is reached, that's it for that number for the upcoming draw.

On July 4th, 776 is one of these numbers for the Pick 3 and 1776 for the Pick 4, especially in heavily populated states like NY, NJ, and Mass.

Also, as Pac said, any number can get locked out. Some of them come from sports scores, or even when there's a plane crash or train wreck and a tail number or engine number is on the front page of the NY Daily News. 

So, even if someone had a crystal ball and could see the number for the next drawing,  people may not necessarily get to play that number.

Does it happen often? No.

Is it likely to happen the night you put up $500 or $1,000 because you have a "lock"? Murphy's law of lotto says oh heck yeah! 

That's why when anyone says, "There's no possible way you could lose", look at them with a look that can only be saying, "I know something you don't know  Wink ", then RUN!

Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

Lep

There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

    konane's avatar - wallace
    Atlanta, GA
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    Posted: February 17, 2008, 4:28 pm - IP Logged

    How about buying 10 tickets for 10 draws?    Big Grin

    Good luck to everyone!

      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
      mid-Ohio
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      Posted: February 17, 2008, 5:08 pm - IP Logged

      Buying 100 tickets for 1 drawing or 50 tickets for 2 drawings?

       It all depend on the game and how you pick your numbers.  For example you probably would use a different strategy for a pick3 game than you would for MegaMillions.   Pick3 games have the same payouts every time while MegaMillions might have a potential jackpot of $300M which might not roll for a second chance.   

       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
         
                   Evil Looking       

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        Kentucky
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        Posted: February 17, 2008, 7:00 pm - IP Logged

        Buying 100 tickets for 1 drawing or 50 tickets for 2 drawings?

        If you buy 100 tickets and none are duplicates, each ticket would have one chance of matching the winning numbers. If you decide to buy 50 tickets for the first drawing, don't win, and play the same 50 tickets in the next drawing, each ticket would have two chances.

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          Kentucky
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          Posted: February 17, 2008, 9:10 pm - IP Logged

          SOME people here are twisting the original question asked....Statistically (odds) $100 in one shot is better than $50 in two draws..no matter what the game....We can discuss at length what ways you PREFER to play with one hundred bucks but the guy asked what option between the two he asked gives better shot at winning

          "Statistically (odds) $100 in one shot is better than $50 in two draws..no matter what the game."

          You can win $220 million playing Mega Millions on Tuesday by buying only one ticket. Buying 100 tickets give you more chances to win, but it won't change the jackpot so you are decreasing the payoff odds from $220 million to $1 to $22 million to $1. Looking at from the reverse side since only one of your 100 tickets can win the jackpot, 99 of them have a zero chance of winning it.  In ever Mega Millions drawing there are 175,711,535 combinations that can't match the winning numbers.

          How is knowing that you just bought 99 losing tickets in one draw better than knowing you only bought 49 losing tickets in the first draw, but still have a chance in a second draw by splitting the $100 into two drawings?

          If you buy 100 different pick-3 straight combinations, you can only collect $500 or a $400 profit. If you buy 50 different pick-3 straight combinations in two drawings, you have the potential to collect $1000 or a $900 profit.

          "We can discuss at length what ways you PREFER to play with one hundred bucks but the guy asked what option between the two he asked gives better shot at winning"

          They never said which game or if the chance of winning meant winning something, more than they spent, or winning a huge jackpot. The odds of winning any prize in Mega Millions are 40 to 1 and it's 9 to 1 in 5/39 games. Had they been more specific on which game and said 'winning the jackpot', the replies would be much different.

          Every time the Mega Millions or Powerball jackpots get huge, the same topics that were discussed at length the last time the jackpots were huge, will be discussed at length again. Too bad the numbers aren't that predictable.

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            San Diego, CA
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            Posted: February 17, 2008, 10:06 pm - IP Logged

            Here is clarification of my question.  The question is for Mega Millions.

             

            Not factoring in the amount of the jackpot, which method has a better chance of winning. I am content with 7 million or 220 million. 

              benmas's avatar - waveform
              Rhode Island
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              Posted: February 17, 2008, 10:37 pm - IP Logged

              Here is clarification of my question.  The question is for Mega Millions.

               

              Not factoring in the amount of the jackpot, which method has a better chance of winning. I am content with 7 million or 220 million. 

              For MEGA the odds of winning jackpot with $1 are  1 : 175,711,536.

              With $100 in one shot it becomes 1:1,757,115.

              With $50 it becomes 1:3,514,231 but you have this opportunity twice with your $100 budget.

              The odds are better with $100 in one shot but with $50 you have two shots but each one of them is twice as hard compared with the $100 at once.

              The FINAL ANSWER is $100 at ONCE...there is no doubt about it...

                RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                mid-Ohio
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                Posted: February 17, 2008, 10:41 pm - IP Logged

                Here is clarification of my question.  The question is for Mega Millions.

                 

                Not factoring in the amount of the jackpot, which method has a better chance of winning. I am content with 7 million or 220 million. 

                Before BigGame became MegaMillions and came to Ohio, I participated in a $500 pool and the pool didn't win enough to pay for the gas to drive to Michigan to buy the tickets.  Several months ago I bought $20 worth of tickets locally and matched 4+0 for $150.  If you're lucky, one ticket is all it takes but when the jackpots are over $100K, I usually spend $20.

                 * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                   
                             Evil Looking       

                  Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                  Zeta Reticuli Star System
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                  Posted: February 17, 2008, 11:51 pm - IP Logged

                  benmas

                  "For MEGA the odds of winning jackpot with $1 are  1 : 175,711,536.

                  With $100 in one shot it becomes 1:1,757,115."

                  No, with $100 in one shot it beomes 175,711,536 minus 100, or 

                  175,711,436.  

                  No mater how many dollars are played, each dollar can play one set of numbers and only one set of numbers. There's no power of 10 or cutting the odds in half or dividing the 175, 711, 536 by how many lines are played, only one set of numbers is drawn, each line of numbers reduces the 1,757,711,536 by 1. That's all there is to it, that's all there can ever be to it. 

                  Anything else is pure hype usually promoted by systems sellers or websites selling tickets.

                  In any jackpot lottery game each line of numbers stands alone against the max prize odds. $100 or $1000 is still shooting at a tank with a BB gun.  

                  In your example above about $100 taking the odds from 175,711,536 to 1,757, 115-  think about this. with all the tickets played every drawing, somebody would have to win if that was true. Picture all the MM tickets played as one humongous pool. If the method of reducing the odds was true, not only would there be winners every draw but after so many tickets the odds would actually be in the players favor. 

                  "Once upon a time..."

                  Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                  Lep

                  There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

                    benmas's avatar - waveform
                    Rhode Island
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                    Posted: February 17, 2008, 11:57 pm - IP Logged

                    benmas

                    "For MEGA the odds of winning jackpot with $1 are  1 : 175,711,536.

                    With $100 in one shot it becomes 1:1,757,115."

                    No, with $100 in one shot it beomes 175,711,536 minus 100, or 

                    175,711,436.  

                    No mater how many dollars are played, each dollar can play one set of numbers and only one set of numbers. There's no power of 10 or cutting the odds in half or dividing the 175, 711, 536 by how many lines are played, only one set of numbers is drawn, each line of numbers reduces the 1,757,711,536 by 1. That's all there is to it, that's all there can ever be to it. 

                    Anything else is pure hype usually promoted by systems sellers or websites selling tickets.

                    In any jackpot lottery game each line of numbers stands alone against the max prize odds. $100 or $1000 is still shooting at a tank with a BB gun.  

                    In your example above about $100 taking the odds from 175,711,536 to 1,757, 115-  think about this. with all the tickets played every drawing, somebody would have to win if that was true. Picture all the MM tickets played as one humongous pool. If the method of reducing the odds was true, not only would there be winners every draw but after so many tickets the odds would actually be in the players favor. 

                    "Once upon a time..."

                    That is true Coin Toss...but the way the lotteries advertise it (PA example for match 6 where you have 3 lines for $2 they metion the odds being 1:4,661,272.3 which is dividing THE OVERALL by 3)

                    anyway the answer is still is $100 in one shot whether you divide or subtract...

                      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                      mid-Ohio
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                      Posted: February 18, 2008, 12:23 am - IP Logged

                       possible combos of 5 with 56 numbers and 1 of 46 bonus numbers are 175711536
                       MATCH       ODDS                     
                        5/5+B        1 : 175711536           
                        5/5            1 : 3904701             
                        4/5+B        1 : 689065               
                        4/5            1 : 15313               
                        3/5+B        1 : 13781               
                        3/5            1 : 306                 
                        2/5+B        1 : 844                 
                        1/5+B        1 : 141                 
                        0/5+B        1 : 75                 

                        ___________________________________________________________________________
                       overall odds are 1 : 39.8       

                       Odds are $50 worth of tickets will win something, maybe a 1+1 for $3

                       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                         
                                   Evil Looking       

                        MissNYC's avatar - diva
                        Westchester, New York
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                        Posted: February 18, 2008, 10:56 am - IP Logged

                        I really don't think buying $100 worth of tickets is responsible. You only need $1 to win, and that's exactly how much I will be spending for tomorrow. If you ever read the stories of lotto winners, few spent more than $10.

                        "If you just keep believing, that dream that you wish will come true"

                        Bed

                         

                          LuckyLilly's avatar - savy chick.png

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                          Posted: February 18, 2008, 11:31 am - IP Logged

                          I really don't think buying $100 worth of tickets is responsible. You only need $1 to win, and that's exactly how much I will be spending for tomorrow. If you ever read the stories of lotto winners, few spent more than $10.

                          Few admitted to spending more than $10.  Playing the lottery is seen by many as wasteful or desperate or downright foolish.  Ever heard it referred to as a tax on stupid people?  Many people are embarrassed to admit to how much they spend. 

                          I always carry my large wallet whenever I go to buy tickets so my neighbors can't see the playslip.  I don't want them to know I'm buying tickets a couple times a week, and it's not just so they won't know when I win either.  Many people look down on people who play the lottery regularly.

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                            Kentucky
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                            Posted: February 18, 2008, 11:57 am - IP Logged

                            Here is clarification of my question.  The question is for Mega Millions.

                             

                            Not factoring in the amount of the jackpot, which method has a better chance of winning. I am content with 7 million or 220 million. 

                            If I decided to blow $100 playing Mega Millions, I'd play it all on 1 draw and be done with it. However I would use a playing strategy and wouldn't buy 100 quick picks.  The overall odds of winning any prize is 1 in 40 but the only way I know of guaranteeing that is by using all 46 mega balls. I've never bought 100 quick picks so I don't know if any or all random blocks of 100 quick picks include all 46 mega balls. If they don't and that missing mega ball hits, your chance of hitting the jackpot is zero.

                            In my state we have an option on the play slips where we can pick the mega balls or the white balls and get quick picks on the other. Check the mega balls 1 - 46 and get quick picks for the white balls and have them run the play slips a second time for a cost of $92. I know for a fact two of those tickets will match the mega ball so at worst you'll get back 4 bucks.

                            This site has a 46 combination wheel that distributes the 56 white balls into a guaranteed 2 number match. I favor using that rather than using the lottery's quick picks because of the fair distribution of all 56 numbers.

                            "Not factoring in the amount of the jackpot, which method has a better chance of winning. I am content with 7 million or 220 million."

                            Compare the volume of play when the jackpot starts at $12 million to the volume when the jackpot reaches $200 million. I don't know the process the lotteries use to create the quick picks but I know there are 3,904,701 possible white ball combinations so for every 40 million quick picks sold, there should be about 10 combinations matching all 5 numbers.

                            Many more tickets will be sold because the jackpot is $220 million so more combinations matching 5 numbers will be sold. Last year when the jackpot reached $390 million, the volume of play was more than the 175 million possible combinations. That doesn't mean they had to sell the winning ticket but because they sold more tickets matching all 5 white balls the odds of at least one of them matching the mega ball was better.

                            If I was thinking about playing 100 quick picks, I'd do it when the jackpot was high.

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                              Kentucky
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                              Posted: February 18, 2008, 12:40 pm - IP Logged

                              I really don't think buying $100 worth of tickets is responsible. You only need $1 to win, and that's exactly how much I will be spending for tomorrow. If you ever read the stories of lotto winners, few spent more than $10.

                              I was on crap table in Reno when a guy who was probably 80 gestured "five" to the floorman. I thought he wanted a marker for $500 until they handed him $50,000 in chips. We both were using the same playing strategy but his bets were $500 chips and mine were $5 chips. He was a multi-millionaire that played craps 3 or 4 times a week.

                              Responsible gambling depends on much we can afford to lose and if $1 is your limit than only play a buck. I can comfortably afford to spend $46 on tomorrow's drawings so that's what I'll do and if JWBlue wants to buy 100 tickets, it's none of my business.

                              The most combinations I've seen on one lottery ticket is 10 and that is the only ticket the lottery commission sees. Does it really make any difference it that was their only ticket or they had 200 more when "You only need $1 to win"?