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Which gives me a better chance of winning a lottery?

Topic closed. 117 replies. Last post 9 years ago by time*treat.

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ThatScaryChick's avatar - x1MqPuM
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Posted: February 18, 2008, 1:26 pm - IP Logged

I was on crap table in Reno when a guy who was probably 80 gestured "five" to the floorman. I thought he wanted a marker for $500 until they handed him $50,000 in chips. We both were using the same playing strategy but his bets were $500 chips and mine were $5 chips. He was a multi-millionaire that played craps 3 or 4 times a week.

Responsible gambling depends on much we can afford to lose and if $1 is your limit than only play a buck. I can comfortably afford to spend $46 on tomorrow's drawings so that's what I'll do and if JWBlue wants to buy 100 tickets, it's none of my business.

The most combinations I've seen on one lottery ticket is 10 and that is the only ticket the lottery commission sees. Does it really make any difference it that was their only ticket or they had 200 more when "You only need $1 to win"?

I Agree!

"No one remembers the person who almost climbed the mountain, only the person who eventually gets to the top."

    ThatScaryChick's avatar - x1MqPuM
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    Posted: February 18, 2008, 1:28 pm - IP Logged

    Here is clarification of my question.  The question is for Mega Millions.

     

    Not factoring in the amount of the jackpot, which method has a better chance of winning. I am content with 7 million or 220 million. 

    I believe that $100 worth of tickets would have a better chance of winning over $50 worth of tickets. But in my opinion it really doesn't make a big difference when playing a lottery game like Mega Millions since the odds are so huge.

    "No one remembers the person who almost climbed the mountain, only the person who eventually gets to the top."

      justxploring's avatar - villiarna
      Wandering Aimlessly
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      Posted: February 18, 2008, 1:56 pm - IP Logged

      "I am content with 7 million or 220 million." 

      LOL

      I'll be content with a sale at the supermarket.

       

      Not to be redundant, I agree with just about all the posts.  Luck plays a key role in winning a game with such astronomical odds as MM.  There are approx 302M people in the US (give or take 12-20 million illegals)  So 175,711,536 (odds of winning)  = more than 1/2 of every man, woman & child from age 1 to 99 including people in comas.  So even though 100 tickets gives you 50 more chances for an individual draw and 50 for 2 draws gives you 1/2 the chances, but you are playing them twice etc., the difference is insignificant.  After handing the clerk my 4 Lotto cards, I sometimes think "I'll buy a QP or 2" and then the guy in back of me says "5 picks for Lotto" before I decide.  So I wonder why buying a couple of tickets is going to make or break me.  Why not this guy or the next one?  It's all a matter of when your lucky star is shining on you.

        justxploring's avatar - villiarna
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        Posted: February 18, 2008, 1:58 pm - IP Logged

        Few admitted to spending more than $10.  Playing the lottery is seen by many as wasteful or desperate or downright foolish.  Ever heard it referred to as a tax on stupid people?  Many people are embarrassed to admit to how much they spend. 

        I always carry my large wallet whenever I go to buy tickets so my neighbors can't see the playslip.  I don't want them to know I'm buying tickets a couple times a week, and it's not just so they won't know when I win either.  Many people look down on people who play the lottery regularly.

        I'm not so sure I agree with you about hiding the number of tickets people play.  I go to the same Publix all the time and see people dropping $100 bucks (and more) on scratchers and online games.  I don't talk about the lottery with my family because they think it's irresponsible to play.

        You do have a point, however.  The lottery might tone it down when making a press release, so they don't give the impression that they're promoting addictive behavior, although they are!   

          LuckyLilly's avatar - savy chick.png

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          Posted: February 18, 2008, 2:05 pm - IP Logged

          I'm not so sure I agree with you about hiding the number of tickets people play.  I go to the same Publix all the time and see people dropping $100 bucks (and more) on scratchers and online games.  I don't talk about the lottery with my family because they think it's irresponsible to play.

          You do have a point, however.  The lottery might tone it down when making a press release, so they don't give the impression that they're promoting addictive behavior, although they are!   

          I don't even think it's the lottery toning it down.  I think the people buying lottery do so their family and friends don't know how much they spend.  Do you think those people dropping $100 tell their neighbors, co-workers, extended family, etc. how much they spend?  I've seen quite a few people buy a whole bunch too, but I've never heard anyone I know admit to being one of those people.  I bet most of them tone it down so they're not regarded as one of those people who are taxed on being stupid.

            justxploring's avatar - villiarna
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            Posted: February 18, 2008, 2:14 pm - IP Logged

            Maybe you're right. I've only heard/seen it secondhand. I don't know for sure if someone at the market I see is buying tickets just for himself either. A person who buys 100 Lotto tickets might be buying them for an office pool.  I don't personally know anyone who admits to spending that much money every week.  I mentioned on another thread that, recently at a bank, we began talking about the FL Lottery and the young cust serv rep told me her friend's husband blows $100 of his paycheck every week and her friend is very worried. 

              benmas's avatar - waveform
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              Posted: February 18, 2008, 8:50 pm - IP Logged

              this guy in orlando was playing $600 a DAY on FLORIDA Lotto ..he hit for $100,000 and $50,000 along the way until he hit the big one ($13 mill for his share, shared jackpot with 3 others)

              watch his interview on youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pBeAEa7qAbs

              he said he would never play lotto again after he won...but ..guess what..HE was back the next draw dropping $1000 on lotto......

                tntea's avatar - Lottery-059.jpg

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                Posted: February 18, 2008, 10:23 pm - IP Logged

                Buying 100 tickets for 1 drawing or 50 tickets for 2 drawings?

                I believe  what would give you the best edge is picking the numbers you are going to play with a reason behind it.   I wouldn't buy 100 qps...

                I use the vtrac chart and watch what is due to fall and narrow down my picks...  3/5 so far... but still working..

                     OLD/Vtrac   Lottery Bible         Double Warnings      Thumbs Up TN F34/F44

                  RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                  Posted: February 18, 2008, 11:03 pm - IP Logged

                  this guy in orlando was playing $600 a DAY on FLORIDA Lotto ..he hit for $100,000 and $50,000 along the way until he hit the big one ($13 mill for his share, shared jackpot with 3 others)

                  watch his interview on youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pBeAEa7qAbs

                  he said he would never play lotto again after he won...but ..guess what..HE was back the next draw dropping $1000 on lotto......

                  According to this story: http://www.wesh.com/news/14023326/detail.html
                  his $600/day lottery habit had already won him $100K twice and $50K once before he won the big one.  This guy was playing at a level that the average lottery player can't comprehend.

                   * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                     
                               Evil Looking       

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                    Posted: February 19, 2008, 1:20 pm - IP Logged

                    And many answers were given to him. How about you let others answer they way they want and you can answer the way you want. No need to tell others how the discussion should fall.

                    Sure the OP got a lot of answers.  Benmas (one of the two whooffered the correct answer) simply pointed out that a number of postersanswered questions that weren't asked instead of the question that wasasked. Not only didn't he do anything to prevent anyone else from answering as they choose, he didn't even suggest that they shouldn't have answered as they did. OTOH, while telling him to let others answer as they see fit, you appear to be taking issue with how he answered.

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                      Posted: February 19, 2008, 1:25 pm - IP Logged

                      "Statistically (odds) $100 in one shot is better than $50 in two draws..no matter what the game."

                      You can win $220 million playing Mega Millions on Tuesday by buying only one ticket. Buying 100 tickets give you more chances to win, but it won't change the jackpot so you are decreasing the payoff odds from $220 million to $1 to $22 million to $1. Looking at from the reverse side since only one of your 100 tickets can win the jackpot, 99 of them have a zero chance of winning it.  In ever Mega Millions drawing there are 175,711,535 combinations that can't match the winning numbers.

                      How is knowing that you just bought 99 losing tickets in one draw better than knowing you only bought 49 losing tickets in the first draw, but still have a chance in a second draw by splitting the $100 into two drawings?

                      If you buy 100 different pick-3 straight combinations, you can only collect $500 or a $400 profit. If you buy 50 different pick-3 straight combinations in two drawings, you have the potential to collect $1000 or a $900 profit.

                      "We can discuss at length what ways you PREFER to play with one hundred bucks but the guy asked what option between the two he asked gives better shot at winning"

                      They never said which game or if the chance of winning meant winning something, more than they spent, or winning a huge jackpot. The odds of winning any prize in Mega Millions are 40 to 1 and it's 9 to 1 in 5/39 games. Had they been more specific on which game and said 'winning the jackpot', the replies would be much different.

                      Every time the Mega Millions or Powerball jackpots get huge, the same topics that were discussed at length the last time the jackpots were huge, will be discussed at length again. Too bad the numbers aren't that predictable.

                      "They never said which game or if the chance of winningmeant winning something, more than they spent, or winning a hugejackpot."

                      Right. All they did was ask which of two choices gives them a better chance of winning.<-- period. Benmas answered correctly, and the example of playing1000 combinations in P3 explained why. If you play all 1000combinations you have a 100% chance of matching the winning number. Ifyou play 500 of the possible numbers in two drawings you'll have a 50%chance of winning each time, and you'll have a 50% chance of losingeach time. That means that the same 1000 chances split over twodrawings gives you a 25% chance of losing both times, and a 75% chanceof winning. Playing a single number in 1000 drawings gives you about a 63% chance of winning. The same basic principle is true for any number of tickets.

                      I know that some people are confused by the fact that somebodyplaying all 1000 combinations would lose money, but it's only a simpleexample to show how the probability works.  No matter what thegame, the chance of having a winning ticket is better if you play anynumber of tickets for a single drawing instead of splitting the samenumber of tickets over multiple drawings. Benmas did make one error, though.  For a jackpot game it isn't a big difference. The advantage is quite small.

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                        Posted: February 19, 2008, 1:32 pm - IP Logged

                        benmas

                        "For MEGA the odds of winning jackpot with $1 are  1 : 175,711,536.

                        With $100 in one shot it becomes 1:1,757,115."

                        No, with $100 in one shot it beomes 175,711,536 minus 100, or 

                        175,711,436.  

                        No mater how many dollars are played, each dollar can play one set of numbers and only one set of numbers. There's no power of 10 or cutting the odds in half or dividing the 175, 711, 536 by how many lines are played, only one set of numbers is drawn, each line of numbers reduces the 1,757,711,536 by 1. That's all there is to it, that's all there can ever be to it. 

                        Anything else is pure hype usually promoted by systems sellers or websites selling tickets.

                        In any jackpot lottery game each line of numbers stands alone against the max prize odds. $100 or $1000 is still shooting at a tank with a BB gun.  

                        In your example above about $100 taking the odds from 175,711,536 to 1,757, 115-  think about this. with all the tickets played every drawing, somebody would have to win if that was true. Picture all the MM tickets played as one humongous pool. If the method of reducing the odds was true, not only would there be winners every draw but after so many tickets the odds would actually be in the players favor. 

                        "Once upon a time..."

                        "

                        No, with $100 in one shot it beomes 175,711,536 minus 100, or 

                        175,711,436.  "

                        Are you suggesting that the chances of winning MM with 100 ticketsis "175,711,436"?  Shouldn't there be some other number in there,since we're dealing with odds or probability? 

                        Suppose the lottery offered a game where they draw a single cardfrom a normal deck.  If you played the ace of spades you'd have a1 in 52 chance of winning, right? ow, suppose you played all 4 aces.Are your chances of winning 1 in 49, or are they 4 in 52?

                        "with all the tickets played every drawing, somebody would have to winif that was true."

                        Nobody has ever suggested that probability works in a manner that would suggest that to be the case.  That idea is strictly a product of your misunderstanding.

                        "Picture all the MM tickets played as one humongouspool. If the method of reducing the odds was true, not only would therebe winners every draw"

                        How the prize will be split amongst a pool has absolutely nothing to do with probability and the chance of winning a prize. As a practical matter all of the tickets sold for a lottery are one enormous pool. The number of tickets (combinations, really) determine the chances of winning. Fora typical MM drawing there are between 13 and  30 million ticketssold.  If 17.5711536 combinations are sold, then 10% of thecombinations have been played, and there is a 10% chance that one ofthose combinations wll be the winning combination.  If 35.142306 combinations are sold, then 20% of the combinations havebeen played, and there is a 20% chance that one of those combinationswill be the winning combination.It works exactly the same way for any number of combinations. Thechances of winning are directly proportional to how many combinationsyou play, whether you play 10% or 20% of possible combinations, or only.0000001% or.0000002% of possible combinations.

                          ThatScaryChick's avatar - x1MqPuM
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                          Posted: February 19, 2008, 1:35 pm - IP Logged

                          Sure the OP got a lot of answers.  Benmas (one of the two whooffered the correct answer) simply pointed out that a number of postersanswered questions that weren't asked instead of the question that wasasked. Not only didn't he do anything to prevent anyone else from answering as they choose, he didn't even suggest that they shouldn't have answered as they did. OTOH, while telling him to let others answer as they see fit, you appear to be taking issue with how he answered.

                          Whatever. Roll Eyes I read it differently. You and benmas don't get to decide who answered what questions correctly and good for you that you think he was the only one who answered correctly. Want a cookie? 

                          "No one remembers the person who almost climbed the mountain, only the person who eventually gets to the top."

                            time*treat's avatar - radar

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                            Posted: February 19, 2008, 5:01 pm - IP Logged

                            Buying 100 tickets for 1 drawing or 50 tickets for 2 drawings?

                            100 tickets for 1 drawing. Play like you mean it. Smash

                            ... and if anyone has any shortbread cookies ... Embarassed

                            In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
                            Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

                              Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                              Zeta Reticuli Star System
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                              Posted: February 19, 2008, 5:28 pm - IP Logged

                              KY Floyd 

                              You yourself just said that there are between 13 and 30 million tickets sold for a typical MM drawing.

                              If this divide the odds by number of tickets played theory was valid, there would be a lot more winners than there ever actually are.

                              By their own statistics, MM (and PB) have 12 to 15 jackpot winners a year, out of 104 drawings.  

                              According to these theories about 100 tickets rdeducing the odds 100 times, 1000 tickets a thousand times, etc., ad nauseam, we would see a lot more jackpots paid out a year than 12 to 15 of 104 drawings.  

                              It helps to sell systems and tickets, but it still "once upon a time."

                              Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                              Lep

                              There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.