Kentucky United States Member #32652 February 14, 2006 7295 Posts Offline

Posted: February 20, 2008, 12:57 am - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Coin Toss on February 19, 2008

KY Floyd

You yourself just said that there are between 13 and 30 million tickets sold for a typical MM drawing.

If this divide the odds by number of tickets played theory was valid, there would be a lot more winners than there ever actually are.

By their own statistics, MM (and PB) have 12 to 15 jackpot winners a year, out of 104 drawings.

According to these theories about 100 tickets rdeducing the odds 100 times, 1000 tickets a thousand times, etc., ad nauseam, we would see a lot more jackpots paid out a year than 12 to 15 of 104 drawings.

It helps to sell systems and tickets, but it still "once upon a time."

In Raffle games they express odds as chances to win because they have multiple jackpots. If a state sells 500,000 raffle tickets and has four $1 million prizes, each ticket has 1 chance to win out of every 125,000 chances. In Mega Millions if you buy 100 tickets, you have 100 chances to win so out of every 1.75 million chances you have 1 chance. And it can be expressed as odds.

There are 3,904,701 combinations with the 56 white balls and if you bought all those combinations, the odds would 1 in 46. If you just buy all 46 mega balls, the odds are reversed to 1 in 3,904,701. The reason more jackpots aren't won is because 1/46 is only 2.17% of all the combinations. Even if they sell 90 million tickets, each with a different combination, there is only slightly better than a 50/50 chance the jackpot will be hit.

"It helps to sell systems and tickets, but it still "once upon a time."

Don't look for the lotteries to say when buy 100 tickets 99 of them can't win the jackpot.

Idaho United States Member #56506 November 21, 2007 6537 Posts Offline

Posted: February 20, 2008, 1:04 am - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by tntea on February 18, 2008

I believe what would give you the best edge is picking the numbers you are going to play with a reason behind it. I wouldn't buy 100 qps...

I use the vtrac chart and watch what is due to fall and narrow down my picks... 3/5 so far... but still working..

I agree. I don't have a problem with quick picks. I sometimes buy them, but I could not see putting down $100 dollars on them. I like having control over what numbers I choose.

"No one remembers the person who almost climbed the mountain, only the person who eventually gets to thetop."

NY United States Member #23835 October 16, 2005 3471 Posts Offline

Posted: February 20, 2008, 2:27 am - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by ThatScaryChick on February 19, 2008

Whatever. I read it differently. You and benmas don't get to decide who answered what questions correctly and good for you that you think he was the only one who answered correctly. Want a cookie?

Of course we don't get to decide who answered correctly. The answeris a matter of fact, not opinion, so who answered correctly isdetermined by the factual answer. I don't think benmas was the only onewho answered correctly. I know that he was one of two (at that time)who answered correctly.

NY United States Member #23835 October 16, 2005 3471 Posts Offline

Posted: February 20, 2008, 2:42 am - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Coin Toss on February 19, 2008

KY Floyd

You yourself just said that there are between 13 and 30 million tickets sold for a typical MM drawing.

If this divide the odds by number of tickets played theory was valid, there would be a lot more winners than there ever actually are.

By their own statistics, MM (and PB) have 12 to 15 jackpot winners a year, out of 104 drawings.

According to these theories about 100 tickets rdeducing the odds 100 times, 1000 tickets a thousand times, etc., ad nauseam, we would see a lot more jackpots paid out a year than 12 to 15 of 104 drawings.

It helps to sell systems and tickets, but it still "once upon a time."

How would there be more winners than there normallyare?You've said this on many occasions, but you've never explainedit.Please don't tell me that "the theory" says 1000 tickets(combinations)means your chances of winning are 2 to the 1000 times aslikely as with1 ticket, because I've told you about 30 times thatnobody says that'show it works. 10 tickets makes you 10 times as likelyto win, 1000 tickets makes you 1000 times as likely to win, and 1million tickets makes you 1 million times as likely to win. It'sa simple proportion. That's how all odds are expressed, but I notice that you were unable to answer that question.

With13 to 30 million tickets spread amongst all players the chancesof awinner would then be 13 to 30 million times as high as if onlyoneticket was sold. If that averaged out to 20 millioncombinationsfor each drawing, then there would be about a 20 million in175 million chance of a winner in each drawing, or about 1 in 8.75.That could be expected to result in 104/8.75 or about 12 winners peryear.

Interestingly enough, you yourself said that's about how many winners there are.

Kentucky United States Member #32652 February 14, 2006 7295 Posts Offline

Posted: February 20, 2008, 2:58 am - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by ThatScaryChick on February 20, 2008

I agree. I don't have a problem with quick picks. I sometimes buy them, but I could not see putting down $100 dollars on them. I like having control over what numbers I choose.

I got 20 QPs and because of duplicates, I only had 15 different mega numbers and didn't check the other 100 numbers but I know that 38 was missing. That's the chance we take when we buy QPs and if somebody is thinking about buying 100 on Friday, they should consider other methods.

Idaho United States Member #56506 November 21, 2007 6537 Posts Offline

Posted: February 20, 2008, 11:23 am - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by KY Floyd on February 20, 2008

Of course we don't get to decide who answered correctly. The answeris a matter of fact, not opinion, so who answered correctly isdetermined by the factual answer. I don't think benmas was the only onewho answered correctly. I know that he was one of two (at that time)who answered correctly.

This is a discussion forum. Posts are bound to go off topic and not necissarily answer the OP question. It's not a big deal.

"No one remembers the person who almost climbed the mountain, only the person who eventually gets to thetop."

United States Member #17555 June 22, 2005 5582 Posts Offline

Posted: February 20, 2008, 12:29 pm - IP Logged

I've said this a hundred times shere on the LP.

When someone throws out odds numbers, it looks better than it does. It's really misleading to the public.

If there are a million possibilities, and you buy one ticket, there are still 999,999 other possible combos still left, which have a chance to come out. But some math folks use lingo that is misleading, making those odds I mentioned above seemingly look better than it really is.

It's more about how math is expressed, than the reality.

We've had this debate here before, and I still stand by my word.

United States Member #17555 June 22, 2005 5582 Posts Offline

Posted: February 20, 2008, 12:36 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by pacattack05 on February 20, 2008

I've said this a hundred times shere on the LP.

When someone throws out odds numbers, it looks better than it does. It's really misleading to the public.

If there are a million possibilities, and you buy one ticket, there are still 999,999 other possible combos still left, which have a chance to come out. But some math folks use lingo that is misleading, making those odds I mentioned above seemingly look better than it really is.

It's more about how math is expressed, than the reality.

We've had this debate here before, and I still stand by my word.

I don't remember the exact numbers or odds, but I've heard from many folks here that will say something to the effect....If you buy a hundred tickets, the odds go down from 27:35,000,000(or whatever)...to 4:12,000,000(or whatever)...things like that, which in mathematical expression might be true, however, it's misleading because after you purchase 100 tickets, there still remain 34,999,900 other combos left that have the chance of showing, yet 4:12,000,000 looks more appealing, but misleading.

Zeta Reticuli Star System United States Member #30470 January 17, 2006 10344 Posts Offline

Posted: February 20, 2008, 4:50 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by KY Floyd on February 20, 2008

How would there be more winners than there normallyare?You've said this on many occasions, but you've never explainedit.Please don't tell me that "the theory" says 1000 tickets(combinations)means your chances of winning are 2 to the 1000 times aslikely as with1 ticket, because I've told you about 30 times thatnobody says that'show it works. 10 tickets makes you 10 times as likelyto win, 1000 tickets makes you 1000 times as likely to win, and 1million tickets makes you 1 million times as likely to win. It'sa simple proportion. That's how all odds are expressed, but I notice that you were unable to answer that question.

With13 to 30 million tickets spread amongst all players the chancesof awinner would then be 13 to 30 million times as high as if onlyoneticket was sold. If that averaged out to 20 millioncombinationsfor each drawing, then there would be about a 20 million in175 million chance of a winner in each drawing, or about 1 in 8.75.That could be expected to result in 104/8.75 or about 12 winners peryear.

Interestingly enough, you yourself said that's about how many winners there are.

KY Floyd

On page 3 of this thread benmas said:

For MEGA the odds of winning jackpot with $1 are 1 : 175,711,536.

With $100 in one shot it becomes 1:1,757,115.

A lot of people fall for, uh, believe this.

If this were true, every $100 would reduce the odds by another 100th, not reduce the total number of combinations "against you" by 100, by reduce the odds in a manner of

1:175,711,536 to 1:1,757,115

and another 100 from

1:1,757, 115 divided by 100, etc...

UNTIL

Each additional $100 woud actually have the odds in the player's favor!

Picture the lottery as one entity (booking the action) and all the players together as "The Player" or "Players" (which is exactly how it is).

If this $10 reducing the odds by a power of 10 or $100 by a factor of 100 WORKED, there would have to be many more winners.

THERE AREN'T.

If $100 reduced the odds by a 10 factor, or $100 by a 100 factor, what in the world woulld 13 to 30 million dollars played do?

And if somoine with enough money was crazy enough to play every combination to "guarantee" a win (no such thing, read on), despite thejackpot, they could still not recover their $175, 711, 536, because someone out there just nay have played the same numbers!

So let's say someone did put up $175,000,000 for a $270,000,000 jackpot BUT SOMEOONE ELSE ALSO HITS.

That "guaranteed" $270,000,000 is now cut in half, and even before cash option reduction and taxes, that $270,000,000 is now shared with someone else and we have a guaranteed 270 million minus half. So the player who put up $175,000,000 LOSES $40 million by winning.

Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

United States Member #57372 January 2, 2008 10 Posts Offline

Posted: February 20, 2008, 6:25 pm - IP Logged

Coin Toss: "If $100 reduced the odds by a 10 factor, or $100 by a 100 factor, what in the world woulld 13 to 30 million dollars played do? "

Assuming that 30 million different numbers were played, that would make the odds of somebody winning a given drawing about 1 in 59. Far from miraculous.

It's not that every ten dollars spent improves the odds by a 10 factor, but rather every power of 10 spent.

mid-Ohio United States Member #9 March 24, 2001 19816 Posts Offline

Posted: February 20, 2008, 7:30 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Ridley on February 20, 2008

Coin Toss: "If $100 reduced the odds by a 10 factor, or $100 by a 100 factor, what in the world woulld 13 to 30 million dollars played do? "

Assuming that 30 million different numbers were played, that would make the odds of somebody winning a given drawing about 1 in 59. Far from miraculous.

It's not that every ten dollars spent improves the odds by a 10 factor, but rather every power of 10 spent.

If there are 175,711,536 possible combinations, buying 100 combinations improve your odd of having the winning combination to 175,711,536/100=1:1,757,115. Buying 100 combinations 10 times would be 1,000 combinations not 100^10=100,000,000 combinations which improve your odds to 175,711,536/1000=1:175,712 if there's no duplications.

The number of times you buy 100 tickets doesn't matter, it's the total number of tickets you buy that effect your odds of winning. Buy 100 tickets on one hundred different occasions doesn't improve your odds over buying 100 tickets on one occasion.

* you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket *

United States Member #17555 June 22, 2005 5582 Posts Offline

Posted: February 20, 2008, 7:44 pm - IP Logged

Coin Toss, for some reason Ky Floyd agreed with you, and then disagreed with you later on, when in fact you were in agreement with each other all along.

Something clicked in his head and read you the wrong way, when he actually agrees with you. I know it's confusing, but I can go back and show the inconsistency with what he said.

United States Member #17555 June 22, 2005 5582 Posts Offline

Posted: February 20, 2008, 7:55 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on February 20, 2008

If there are 175,711,536 possible combinations, buying 100 combinations improve your odd of having the winning combination to 175,711,536/100=1:1,757,115. Buying 100 combinations 10 times would be 1,000 combinations not 100^10=100,000,000 combinations which improve your odds to 175,711,536/1000=1:175,712 if there's no duplications.

The number of times you buy 100 tickets doesn't matter, it's the total number of tickets you buy that effect your odds of winning. Buy 100 tickets on one hundred different occasions doesn't improve your odds over buying 100 tickets on one occasion.

If there are 175,711,536 possible combinations, buying 100 combinations improve your odd of having the winning combination to 175,711,536/100=1:1,757,115.

See folks, this is what I mean about misleading. The above shows that buying 100 tix, your odds come down from 1:175,711,536 to 1:1,175,712.

Now, again I say, in mathematical terminology this might be true, however it's misleading.

Does anyone really believe that if you buy a hundred tickets, that you've eliminated a hundred seventy four million possibilities?

United States Member #13130 March 30, 2005 2171 Posts Offline

Posted: February 20, 2008, 8:16 pm - IP Logged

There's nothing misleading about it. If there are 175,711,536 combinations, and you buy 100 tickets then it means you have 100 in 175,711,536 chances. You have bought 1 ticket for every 1,757,116 combinations.

The more tickets you buy, the higher your personal odds of winning, but there is no absolute jackpot guarantee until you've bought every combo. And there is no guarantee you won't have to share it.

In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you. Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

United States Member #17555 June 22, 2005 5582 Posts Offline

Posted: February 20, 2008, 8:29 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by time*treat on February 20, 2008

There's nothing misleading about it. If there are 175,711,536 combinations, and you buy 100 tickets then it means you have 100 in 175,711,536 chances. You have bought 1 ticket for every 1,757,116 combinations.

The more tickets you buy, the higher your personal odds of winning, but there is no absolute jackpot guarantee until you've bought every combo. And there is no guarantee you won't have to share it.

You're missing my point.

If the Jp was 1:10, and you bought one ticket, what would your odds be?

There are still 9 combos that have the chance to come out. So now it's 1 in 8 for you to win. But i'm sure you'll say something like, now you only have a 50/50 chance or something...lol