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Which gives me a better chance of winning a lottery?

Topic closed. 117 replies. Last post 9 years ago by time*treat.

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Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
Zeta Reticuli Star System
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Posted: February 21, 2008, 2:30 pm - IP Logged

The ratio of the number of drawings that produce no winner to the number of drawings that produe a winner or winners absolutely proves that the reduction of lottery odds is a myth.

Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

Lep

There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.


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    Posted: February 21, 2008, 3:22 pm - IP Logged

    I think I found the perfect example of the misleading aspects of this whole thing.

    Keeping it simple.

    0-9 has 10 possibilities, right?

    I purchase one ticket, let's say I pick 0......1:10

    I purchase 2 tickets, let's say I pick 0, and 1.......2:5

    When people see the 5, they think Ooohhh, now I only have to contend with only 5 possiblities out there. But we all know that's not true. There are still 8 numbers to contend with, which are 2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9.

    Somebody please tell me I'm wrong, or am I going crazy?

      time*treat's avatar - radar

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      Posted: February 21, 2008, 3:29 pm - IP Logged

      Well, now your question is more clear.
      The people who are bad at math may see it as 'only five more possibilities' ... but they are still wrong.

      BTW, if you know any such people, I'd like to borrow $100 from them. I will then pay them $40 (2:5) of their money back. Then I will only owe them ...uh ... $5 more bucks, right?

      In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
      Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

        justxploring's avatar - villiarna
        Wandering Aimlessly
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        Posted: February 21, 2008, 3:40 pm - IP Logged

        "Somebody please tell me I'm wrong, or am I going crazy?"

        Can the answer be "both?"  LOL

        Actually, I know exactly what you're saying (which is very scary. lol)  Crazy 

        Let's take a simple example like 1 ticket is 1 in 10 and 2 is 1 in 5..... There are still 10 numbers, so if you only play the first 5 possibilities, you aren't covering the second. 

        Take 10 $1 bills and put them on a table.  Mark 1 of them with a red spot, turn them over and mix them up.  You have 1 chance at picking the right bill.  You mix them up again and you have 2 chances.  Now split the bills and put 5 on each side of the table.  You are told you get 2 picks, but only from the right side of the table.  What if the marked bill is on the left?  Even 3, 4 or 5 picks won't get you the winning result.  So you need to consider all 10 bills.


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          Posted: February 21, 2008, 3:41 pm - IP Logged

          Well, now your question is more clear.
          The people who are bad at math may see it as 'only five more possibilities' ... but they are still wrong.

          BTW, if you know any such people, I'd like to borrow $100 from them. I will then pay them $40 (2:5) of their money back. Then I will only owe them ...uh ... $5 more bucks, right?

          I don't think it's merely because of people whao are bad at math. In general, people who I've discussed the lottery with, who are relatively smart individuals doing much better than I in their finances, and live in very nice homes, really aren't aware of just the basics of the odds and ends, and internal workings of the lottery. You'd be very surprised their overall outlook on the whole thing.

          I pick up people at the airport who live in 2 million dollar homes, which shows they were doing something right in their lives, yet when they get in my cab, and look all around, seeing the gound wet for miles and miles, and then to ask me if it has been raining, makes me wonder.

          I always had the urge tell them the folllowing, but I'd probably lose my job.

          I want to tell them...NO...it hasn't been raining. There were 10 crazy people who escaped from the funny farm and stole 10 water trucks, spraying everything in sight. The cops caught them about an hour ago, and that's why the ground is wet...lol

            justxploring's avatar - villiarna
            Wandering Aimlessly
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            Posted: February 21, 2008, 3:44 pm - IP Logged

            My favorite from Mad Magazine's "Snappy Answers to Stupid Questions" (probably 30+ years ago)

            was a cartoon with people standing in an elevator and the sign clearly reads "BASEMENT" 

            question:  Are you going up?

            Answer:   No, we're standing still so you must be going down.


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              Posted: February 21, 2008, 3:45 pm - IP Logged

              "Somebody please tell me I'm wrong, or am I going crazy?"

              Can the answer be "both?"  LOL

              Actually, I know exactly what you're saying (which is very scary. lol)  Crazy 

              Let's take a simple example like 1 ticket is 1 in 10 and 2 is 1 in 5..... There are still 10 numbers, so if you only play the first 5 possibilities, you aren't covering the second. 

              Take 10 $1 bills and put them on a table.  Mark 1 of them with a red spot, turn them over and mix them up.  You have 1 chance at picking the right bill.  You mix them up again and you have 2 chances.  Now split the bills and put 5 on each side of the table.  You are told you get 2 picks, but only from the right side of the table.  What if the marked bill is on the left?  Even 3, 4 or 5 picks won't get you the winning result.  So you need to consider all 10 bills.

              What's even scarier is that I understand myself...

                time*treat's avatar - radar

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                Posted: February 21, 2008, 3:50 pm - IP Logged

                Heh, you can be good at what you do and still be bad at math. Especially when we get into numbers like 175,000,000 ~ things can get really abstract. That's not the same as being a plumber or electrician or mechanic (all challenging in their own right, and requiring their own skill set). Those are things you can see externally.

                I thought you were doing the self-employed OTR driver thing. 

                In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
                Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.


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                  Posted: February 21, 2008, 3:57 pm - IP Logged

                  Heh, you can be good at what you do and still be bad at math. Especially when we get into numbers like 175,000,000 ~ things can get really abstract. That's not the same as being a plumber or electrician or mechanic (all challenging in their own right, and requiring their own skill set). Those are things you can see externally.

                  I thought you were doing the self-employed OTR driver thing. 

                  In about a week I have to go to palce called Southern wine and spirits. A friend of mine recommended them to me. They pay something like 17 or 18 bucks an hour, and you get home by 3 or 4 pm. No nights, and no weekends. I can finally have my life back.

                  It's local deliveries of liquor. Maybe I can get a discount...lol

                  The price of Woodbridge, merlot is getting too high for me....lol

                    justxploring's avatar - villiarna
                    Wandering Aimlessly
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                    Posted: February 21, 2008, 4:02 pm - IP Logged

                    Pac, first I have to say I totally agree with you about smart people & bad math.  Take mortgages for example.  A few years ago I worked 2 weeks for a broker who was pushing the interest only loans and the 1% Option ARMs.  I left during training.  People thought that 4% increasing to 5% was 1%, not 25%.  Yes, the rate only increases by 1%, but the payment still goes up 25%. (doesn't it?)   I tried to use a c**ktail as an example.  If you have a drink with 10% alcohol and another drink with 20% alcohol, that drink is twice as potent as the other, not 10%.  When I once bought tooth bleach on the internet, it had 22% peroxide instead of the 15% I was using.  OMG! I couldn't drink orange juice or even brush my teeth for a week!  Why? Because this formula was 40% stronger!   Still, giving all these examples to people didn't seem to matter....and the broker had a "you can't fix stupid" attitude, which isn't the way I operate.  Yet people finance cars all the time when they are very upside down.  You can try to explain that they owe much more than the car is worth, so they aren't paying $20,000 for the new car, but really $25,000 and they look at you with a blank stare.  Do you think the finance manager cares?  I've mentioned before that I worked with a woman who thought .4 at the market was a quarter of a pound, although that's a little too extreme. Still, many of these people are successful, intelligent people who are good at something else. 

                    Not to go too far off on a tangent, but "has it been raining?" is just a rhetorical question in many instances to break the ice or to start up a conversation IMHO. 

                      Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                      Zeta Reticuli Star System
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                      Posted: February 21, 2008, 4:08 pm - IP Logged

                      Oh is that true about the mortgsges!

                      I was at an adult ed. class where the teacher advised not paying cah for a house even if you coud. I told him I had to disagree with him, why pay for the house three times?

                      Another guy in the class spoke up and said he agreed with me. He sold Mercedes and said no one who xcould pay cash for a Mercedes would ever finance it.

                      the teacher then said, "Well, who can really pay cash for a house, anyway?"

                      Pac

                      I worked with a guy in Vegas who had been an air traffic controller, leanred it on the Marines. This was in viet Nam, a Colonel approaching the airstrip asked him what the weather was like and he said, "It has been raining all day long."

                      Well, when this colonel landed, he skidded - then came into the control tower, and demanded to know why the controller never told him the runay was wet!

                      Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                      Lep

                      There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.


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                        Posted: February 21, 2008, 4:12 pm - IP Logged

                        Pac, first I have to say I totally agree with you about smart people & bad math.  Take mortgages for example.  A few years ago I worked 2 weeks for a broker who was pushing the interest only loans and the 1% Option ARMs.  I left during training.  People thought that 4% increasing to 5% was 1%, not 25%.  Yes, the rate only increases by 1%, but the payment still goes up 25%. (doesn't it?)   I tried to use a c**ktail as an example.  If you have a drink with 10% alcohol and another drink with 20% alcohol, that drink is twice as potent as the other, not 10%.  When I once bought tooth bleach on the internet, it had 22% peroxide instead of the 15% I was using.  OMG! I couldn't drink orange juice or even brush my teeth for a week!  Why? Because this formula was 40% stronger!   Still, giving all these examples to people didn't seem to matter....and the broker had a "you can't fix stupid" attitude, which isn't the way I operate.  Yet people finance cars all the time when they are very upside down.  You can try to explain that they owe much more than the car is worth, so they aren't paying $20,000 for the new car, but really $25,000 and they look at you with a blank stare.  Do you think the finance manager cares?  I've mentioned before that I worked with a woman who thought .4 at the market was a quarter of a pound, although that's a little too extreme. Still, many of these people are successful, intelligent people who are good at something else. 

                        Not to go too far off on a tangent, but "has it been raining?" is just a rhetorical question in many instances to break the ice or to start up a conversation IMHO. 

                        As everyone here probably notices, I'm terrible at math. I can count to 10, and that's about it.

                        As far as the breaking of the ice, I agree with you, but there are better ways to do this. If it were me, I would say something like...."Did they forecast it to rain all day, or is it just passing?" "I wanted to play some golf, but I guess that's out of the question". "I guess you guys need the rain anyway right?"

                        That's a little more intelligible, I think.

                        I'm just glad it doesen't snow here. I'd probably jam on the brakes, and turn around and choke them...lol ( Just kidding..I'm not a violent person).


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                          Posted: February 21, 2008, 4:16 pm - IP Logged

                          I worked with a guy in Vegas who had been an air traffic controller, leanred it on the Marines. This was in viet Nam, a Colonel approaching the airstrip asked him what the weather was like and he said, "It has been raining all day long."

                          Well, when this colonel landed, he skidded - then came into the control tower, and demanded to know why the controller never told him the runay was wet!

                          If that's a true story, then we have a bigger problem than I previously thought...lol

                            justxploring's avatar - villiarna
                            Wandering Aimlessly
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                            Posted: February 21, 2008, 4:21 pm - IP Logged

                            Coin Toss, I sold furniture in an upscale area of FL for years.  During the housing bubble I furnished a few homes in Olde Naples for investors who paid $1 million cash, and sold them for $1.5 million in less than years.  There's no way they could get all that interest in the bank or the stock market without risk.   I agree with you almost 100%.   Just get an amortization table.

                            On the other hand (the reason I said almost) I also agree that paying cash when you can get a very low rate and are making much more in investments might not be such a great idea.  Those adjustable mortgages or 5 year interest-only mortgages might be good for people who are earning considerably more in other investments and then want to flip the house in a few years, but not for most people.  Of course, in this market, who knows if/when the home values here will increase?  I was talking about a few years ago. In any case, every situation has to be tailored to the client to fit his or her personal needs. That's what a responsible lender or financial planner should always do, but they don't.

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                              Posted: February 21, 2008, 9:48 pm - IP Logged

                              How can anyone debate whether there is a better chance of winning with 100 tickets instead of 1 ticket no matter how little the difference is?

                              Since nobody won the jackpot on Tuesday, the answer to obvious; had you bought $100 worth of tickets instead of buying $50 in 2 draws, your chances of winning was zero.