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Is statistics method really useful to predict drawing number?

Topic closed. 32 replies. Last post 9 years ago by RJOh.

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Delaware
Greenland
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Posted: February 24, 2008, 2:49 am - IP Logged

??

 

Do you believe it?   I don't believe it :-( 

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    United Kingdom
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    Posted: February 24, 2008, 6:54 am - IP Logged

    What is this method?

     There are certain number combinations, rather than individual numbers, I would not lay money on.

      Raven62's avatar - binary
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      Posted: February 24, 2008, 8:17 am - IP Logged

      ??

       

      Do you believe it?   I don't believe it :-( 

      Fact: According to lottery officials, 80% of players choose quick picks. Only 20% pick their own numbers. But what they will also tell you is, Winners are split 50/50 between the two groups!

      So, the 20% group wins 50% of the time! Thumbs Up

      A mind once stretched by a new idea never returns to its original dimensions!

        Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
        Zeta Reticuli Star System
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        Posted: February 24, 2008, 6:21 pm - IP Logged

        Fact: According to lottery officials, 80% of players choose quick picks. Only 20% pick their own numbers. But what they will also tell you is, Winners are split 50/50 between the two groups!

        So, the 20% group wins 50% of the time! Thumbs Up

        Raven 62

        Could you tell us where you got your fact above? 

         

        From the Powerball website FAQ page:

        "WHICH HAS THE BETTER CHANCE OF WINNING: COMPUTER PICKS OR PLAYER PICKS?

        About 70% to 80% of purchases are computer picks. About 70% to 80%of winners are computer picks. Perhaps just one of those weirdcoincidences?"

        Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

        Lep

        There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

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          NASHVILLE, TENN
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          Posted: February 24, 2008, 8:20 pm - IP Logged

          The purpose behind what most of us are doing, or trying to accomplish, is to find a path that will lead to more wins than losses.  Statistics is just one, albeit, the main leg of our endeavors, to do just that, find the right path.

          If you can think of another path, we would most certainly entertain your thoughts. 

           The many threads here deal with searching for that successful path.  We may be beating our heads against a wall but that is not the point.  The point is we are trying.  Some of us use mythical reasoning; some use dreams; some use mathematics; some use statistics; and a few have struck out on their own, developing a special line of reasoning. 

          Mathematics tells me it cannot be done.  Fine.  No problem.  So I will search elsewhere.  But search I shall for only in searching will the truth be found.

           

          Good Luck

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            San Diego, CA
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            Posted: February 24, 2008, 8:41 pm - IP Logged

            The winners that picked their own numbers didn't necessarily use statistics.  We would need to know what percentage of winners used statistics.  I doubt any of the people that win the lottery use statistics.  They seem to just flat out get lucky.

              Raven62's avatar - binary
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              Posted: February 24, 2008, 9:05 pm - IP Logged

              Raven 62

              Could you tell us where you got your fact above? 

               

              From the Powerball website FAQ page:

              "WHICH HAS THE BETTER CHANCE OF WINNING: COMPUTER PICKS OR PLAYER PICKS?

              About 70% to 80% of purchases are computer picks. About 70% to 80%of winners are computer picks. Perhaps just one of those weirdcoincidences?"

              Look Here!

              A mind once stretched by a new idea never returns to its original dimensions!

                RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                mid-Ohio
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                Posted: February 24, 2008, 9:34 pm - IP Logged

                Statistics can tell you a lot about previous drawings:
                 
                 Which combinations have won in the past drawings.
                 The numbers drawn most often or least drawn
                 The percentage of even verses odd or low verses high numbers drawn
                 Which bonus numbers are drawn the most or least
                 Which numbers are the most or least active (hot or cold)
                 .....and much more

                The problem is knowing how to use this information to win a lottery.  There are those who claim to be developing a formula to plug in such data and pick a winner, but it's an idea that's still being worked on as far as I know.

                 * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                   
                             Evil Looking       

                  Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                  Zeta Reticuli Star System
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                  Posted: February 24, 2008, 11:25 pm - IP Logged

                  Raven62

                  The site you linked to is selling a system, of course they are going to tout chosen numbers (via their system of course) over quick picks.  

                  Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                  Lep

                  There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

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                    NY
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                    Posted: February 25, 2008, 3:15 am - IP Logged

                    Raven62

                    The site you linked to is selling a system, of course they are going to tout chosen numbers (via their system of course) over quick picks.  

                    Don't be silly. I'm *sure* they're only providing unbiased facts so the informed player can make good choices.

                    (note to justx: yes, you are feeling sarcasm this time.) 

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                      Kentucky
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                      Posted: February 25, 2008, 4:27 am - IP Logged

                      ??

                       

                      Do you believe it?   I don't believe it :-( 

                      That depends on the game and what you’re trying to do. When Mega Millions has its 300th drawing, there will be no other 300 drawing period we could compare it with and that would be assuming 300 draws are enough.

                      If you started playing Mega Millions at 18 and lived to 88, you can expect to see 7280 drawings but that is only 0.00416% of all 175 million combos. If it stays at two drawings a week, in another 168,269 years there will have 1% of the data to evaluate. If you limit your statistical analysis to the white balls, you'll have 1% in only 3755 years.

                      The number of drawings doesn't change statistics like half the numbers are even and half are low and you can evaluate that on a very low number of drawings. I don't know how many of this type of filters it would take to reduce it to a reasonable amount of combos to play but it is a statistic that can be used without waiting for thousands of years of results.

                        Raven62's avatar - binary
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                        Posted: February 25, 2008, 9:24 am - IP Logged

                        Raven62

                        The site you linked to is selling a system, of course they are going to tout chosen numbers (via their system of course) over quick picks.  

                        Coin Toss,

                        What does that have to do with the Facts: as stated on their Website?

                        Please post the source of your information that disproves the Facts: that are inscribed upon their Website.

                        A mind once stretched by a new idea never returns to its original dimensions!

                          ThatScaryChick's avatar - x1MqPuM
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                          Posted: February 25, 2008, 10:27 am - IP Logged

                          ??

                           

                          Do you believe it?   I don't believe it :-( 

                          I don't believe I've even heard of a statistics method.

                          "No one remembers the person who almost climbed the mountain, only the person who eventually gets to the top."

                            Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                            Zeta Reticuli Star System
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                            Posted: February 25, 2008, 12:16 pm - IP Logged

                            Coin Toss,

                            What does that have to do with the Facts: as stated on their Website?

                            Please post the source of your information that disproves the Facts: that are inscribed upon their Website.

                            Raven62

                            They are selling a system, they are making up their "facts".

                            The Powerball site is a lottery website that keeps statistics on actual results, not "maybes" and woulda shoulda couldas.

                            If you're so anxious to believe the "facts" on the sytem seller's website, why do doubt the real-life facts on the Powerball site? 

                            I already told you the source of information, it's the FAQ page of the Powerball site.  

                            Once again, beware the tout.  

                            Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                            Lep

                            There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

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                              Posted: February 25, 2008, 12:29 pm - IP Logged

                              I've running a service for almost 5 years to predict lotteries using statistics.   I can not share the site or link as per the Lottery Post user agreement.   We correctly predicted 5 of 5 in  the  Rolling Cash 12 times in 2007 and 3 times so far in 2008.  To prove my point we are currently running an experiment in the Ohio Rolling Cash Lottery.   You can see the top numbers we are predicting under my Lottery Post user name BillSam2008.   The fifth line was a mistaken entry on my part and will not be part of my daily post going forward.   On Saturday evening, we had a zero occurrence and it signalled the beginning of our experiment.   Read below for more about what we do.

                              To explain why we have such a high success rate, let’s go back in history for a moment. Do you recall the group from MIT that went to casinos around the country playing black jack back in the 70’s? They would watch the cards played and depending on the value of the card, either increase or decrease a number in their head by the relative value. In one card counting system, cards 2 through 6 are assigned a value of +1. Tens (and face cards) through aces are assigned a value of -1. Cards 7, 8, and 9 have a value of zero (so they can be ignored). Once the player reached a predetermined level, they knew the remaining cards left to play were skewed towards high cards. This group understood that the odds were in their favor when the number of high cards remaining in the dealers deck was significantly higher than lower valued cards. They chose these times to play more vigorously and won enormous amounts of money until the casinos discovered what they were doing. These card counters were using math, and an understanding of statistics and probability to know when to play. This is what we do for you as a lottery player.

                              We analyze the numbers drawn after each and every draw and rank the results. When our rankings are skewed to such a degree that we predict zero out five correctly, this is actually a good thing. We then know that we have in fact distilled the best, most probable numbers all together and the fun begins. What we have found, based on thousands upon thousands of simulations of our computer models, is that we predict a jackpot within 1 to 45 draws of a zero occurrence, 80-90% of the time. If you think of a zero prediction as the bottom of a wave and five of five as the top of a wave, just as in nature, the top of a wave ALWAYS follows the bottom.   This is not unlike work done by R.N. Elliot and the Elliot Wave which predicted the stock market.   Predicting the stock market is a lot tougher than predicing lotteries.