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Time to post my PB logic:

Topic closed. 99 replies. Last post 7 years ago by scorpio.

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United States
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Posted: August 29, 2009, 1:29 pm - IP Logged

Here is part of how *I* track numbers, it's all AGE based and has ZERO to do with the actual number.

(DISCLAIMER- this is all based on a ballset of 55 white balls, not the current 59 ballset)

Let's start by taking a set of numbers from the last game:

1-21-23-30-43 and PB11

If you track this (and EVERY) subsequent set of numbers chronologically, you will notice that TYPICALLY one of those five whiteballs will be hit in the next three to five games.

That leaves you with four numbers left.

One of those remaining four will then be hit within the NEXT four to five games

For the sake of argument that puts you ten games down the road with three remaining numbers.

One of those three will be hit usually within the next seven games (usually the next 4 to 5 games really).

That leaves us with two numbers to choose from, and if those two remaining numbers make it to 22 games without being hit, you must play one of them, as with my tracking of this, one of those two numbers will get hit in the next four to five games. In two years of tracking this only twice has two numbers fallen past 30 games without getting hit, and even at that, one of those two will get hit in the next three to four games.

--------------------------------

The next question is when starting this, with five to choose from, which one do I play?

The answer is in my history, usually NOT the same one that hit prior, and by that I mean the fifth number in the ballset is 43, we don't care that it is number 43, all we care about is that it is the FIFTH number in the set. There has been a tendency for the FIFTH number to hit maybe twice in a row, but usually not three times. An I just picked the Fifth number as an example, it could be the first, second, third or fourth number.

If the first number in a row of five hits, then the next time you have five numbers, do NOT pick the first one to repeat, and so on.

The next thing is half the time a number won't repeat in the same position, so do question if you want your second number chosen to be #21 - chances are better that the next time #21 is hit it won't be the second number chosen, it will probably be the third number. This is the same for all numbers between about 12 and 48.

IMO far too much emphasis is put on the NUMBER and NONE is put on the POSITION.

It is too easy to fall in love with 'favorite' numbers, that's a big mistake. Sure, your favorite number will hit once in awhile, but they ALL do, ALL numbers hit in streaks, I've seen numbers hit three times in five games and then go 30 games until the next hit, and then 20 games until the next hit after that. It happens. It's called randomness, and EVERY number has gone thru it.

----------------------------------

I have discussed my theories with folks offline, and some 'prominent' folks on here, some have said I'm Full Of S*** - and I have proved myself right every time. These folks won't even acknowledge I was right. Oh well, life goes on.

Now, the problem is, there are a lot of variables here, a lot to choose from even when narrowing down by 'age', so it still comes back to randomness and luck. I have hit 4x5 twelve times using my theory (and a few others) above, but quite frankly I don't have 8 hours a week to spend on it, and I have nothing for selecting the Powerball.

Anyway, my point is, you don't want to pick ALL of your numbers from a pool that have hit in the last 2-3 games, and you don't want to pick ALL longshots, and you don't want to pick ALL of your numbers from the same rough 'age' area, ie all five numbers from 7-8-9 games ago as an example.

So maybe you folks can take my info and run with it, a 5x5 is 200K, go for it.

    guesser's avatar - Lottery-017.jpg

    United States
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    Posted: August 29, 2009, 1:35 pm - IP Logged

    Groupings:

    How many numbers comprise a group, 1-10, 11-20, 21-30, 31-40, 41-50, 51-59

    USUALLY two numbers from one group will hit, it's less-likely you get two numbers to hit from two different groups, ie 13-15 and 36-37, so try to avoid that. It DOES happen, just not as much. Even three from one group is unlikely, but it happens, and it hit in my example above: 21-23-30 is three numbers from the 20's group.

    This was a PITA when it was just 55 numbers.

      guesser's avatar - Lottery-017.jpg

      United States
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      Posted: August 29, 2009, 1:46 pm - IP Logged

      You also need to keep in mind the Odds:

          hitting the jackpot is one in 195 MILLION.

       

      The odds of hitting 5x5 for $200,000 is one in 5.2 Million. Based on the numbers of winners of 5x5, it seems more like one in 25 million.

      Even if we cut those 5.2 odds by 80% we are looking at one in a million, so PLEASE REALIZE the odds are there for a reason, they ARE against you, don't spend more than you can afford to piss away, but this doesn't mean you can cut the odds even more and have fun trying.

        MADDOG10's avatar - smoke
        Beautiful Florida
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        Posted: August 29, 2009, 1:55 pm - IP Logged

        Thanks for the input Guesser,

                It gives players a different perspective of the game.

                                                     

                                                       "  When Injustice Becomes Law, Resistance Becomes Duty "


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          Posted: August 29, 2009, 1:58 pm - IP Logged

          i think each state has to send in numbers purchased before a certain time before drawing.that way they can eliminate those numbers if too many people are playing,so the states don't have to subtract all those winnings from their states lottery take.

            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
            mid-Ohio
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            Posted: August 29, 2009, 2:19 pm - IP Logged

            i think each state has to send in numbers purchased before a certain time before drawing.that way they can eliminate those numbers if too many people are playing,so the states don't have to subtract all those winnings from their states lottery take.

            Most states sell tickets up to 15 minutes before the drawing.  If what you said was true then they would have to survey all the combinations sold and make a decision in less than 15 minutes however after the drawing it takes an hour or more to know if anyone played the winning combination or one of the combinations that matched enough numbers for a prize.

             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
               
                         Evil Looking       


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              Posted: August 29, 2009, 3:17 pm - IP Logged

              ok,so that'swhy this state has never won the pb drawing.i thought it was just because it has a small population,and not centered like pennsylvania,who wins a lot.

                x1kosmic's avatar - neptune vg2.gif

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                Posted: August 29, 2009, 5:19 pm - IP Logged

                Nice to see you still around as well guesser

                will take note on all of the above.


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                  Posted: August 29, 2009, 6:07 pm - IP Logged

                  rjoh,maybe someday we will have 10-20 pb winners to prove your theory!

                    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                    mid-Ohio
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                    Posted: August 29, 2009, 6:35 pm - IP Logged

                    rjoh,maybe someday we will have 10-20 pb winners to prove your theory!

                    I don't have a theory, I was just trying to make sense of your theory.  For the last drawing 155 millions combinations were sold so there were at least 20 million combinations not sold.  If your theory is correct, some one decided to use a combinations that resulted in 2 players winning the jackpot and 34 other players winning $250K instead of picking one of those 20 millions combinations that no one played.  What happened?  Were there too many combinations to consider in 15 minutes or did they think it was time to end the jackpot run up?  To be believable a theory has to make sense.

                     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                       
                                 Evil Looking       


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                      Posted: August 29, 2009, 8:45 pm - IP Logged

                      yes rjoh,but if it was truly random,once in awhile we'd get 10-20 winners,not 1,2,3 every winner time.

                        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                        mid-Ohio
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                        Posted: August 29, 2009, 10:31 pm - IP Logged

                        yes rjoh,but if it was truly random,once in awhile we'd get 10-20 winners,not 1,2,3 every winner time.

                        For the MegaMillions game there are 175,711,536 possible combinations.  How do you figure when most times less than a third that many tickets are sold for a drawing that if the game was truly random there should be 10-20 winners once in a while? 

                        When PowerBall had a bunch of 5+0 winners a few years ago, they knew it wasn't normal and an investigation revealed many of the winners got their numbers from fortune cookies with the same message.

                         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                           
                                     Evil Looking       


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                          Posted: August 29, 2009, 11:17 pm - IP Logged

                          but remember this,the lotteries biggest job is to stop millions from getting the $3.00 win.

                            benmas's avatar - waveform
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                            Posted: August 30, 2009, 4:44 am - IP Logged

                            what guesser is talking about is just simple probabilities...% of repeats from last draw or three draws...grouping and so on.....the difficulty is that there are so many balls and it is on a much bigger scale than say p3...so there are times that you will not be right...but the aim is not to be right all the time ...just one time right will do it...so dont discourage that you are not guessing right all the time...it is supposed to be like that...what matters is following a certain way that makes general sense as far as  probabilities are concerned....it is not neccessary to use computer programs to keep complicated stats...just pencil and paper and let your mind do the work by following general probability guidelines

                            if you keep an open mind of those probability concepts however and if you catch it at the right time then maybe you get it....

                            personally i try to pick using the following general steps:

                            skip decade, repeat last draw, consecutives and wild card

                            1) skip decade: make a guess at what group of balls (decade) will not show up ...since there are 6 tenths groups 0-9, 10-19, 20-29, 30-39, 40-49 and 50-59  it is not possible that 5 balls will come from 6 groups....so first order of business is to determine right off the bat what decade(s) will not appear...usually 2 miss out...other more misses are rare...

                            01 · 20 · 37 · 52 · 53           10s and 40s missing           2

                            01 · 21 · 23 · 30 · 43           10s and 50s missing           2

                            03 · 06 · 20 · 32 · 51           10s and 40s missing           2

                            14 · 24 · 31 · 43 · 51            0s missing                          1

                            14 · 15 · 26 · 32 · 36            0s, 40s and 50s missing    3

                            10 · 25 · 32 · 34 · 47            0s and 50s missing            2

                            04 · 33 · 37 · 45 · 50            10s and 20s missing          2

                            25 · 34 · 41 · 46 · 49             0s and 10s and 50s missing   3

                            05 · 37 · 39 · 46 · 53            10s and 20s missing  2

                            02 · 05 · 38 · 43 · 59            10s and 20s missing 2

                            so as illustrated it is a good way to start to guess what 2 out of 6 will be eliminated... this has a 7% probability that you will be right...but it helps you cut it down and focus on whats coming

                            2) repeat last draw: sometimes but more often that you think one number will come from last draw....if you get the right one (1 out of 5) then you good cause you can also discard the other 4 last draw..often times there are no repeats so you eliminate all 5 from last draw

                            3) consecutives:  this happens a lot..so if you have a favorite number that you are sure will hit why not look for the possibility that one of the neighbors will come with it...sometime it is its immediate neighbour sometimes in the close vicinity

                            4) wild card...every draw has a certain surprise that comes with it...like ooo i wasnt expecting that...think of what you dont first expect maybe it helps you spot smth or a pattern that you didnt usually think of at the beginning

                            --------------------------------

                            so for the 8/29/2009 drawing if i had to apply the above steps and if my guesses were 10s and 40s will skip+ one repeat last draw (number 1) + i really liked 53 so its neighbor come with it...it would have come pretty close to the actual lottery picks...but there will always be some luck involved always


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                              Posted: August 30, 2009, 10:55 am - IP Logged

                              seems to be sensible.