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# When is something considered 'Hot'?

Topic closed. 56 replies. Last post 7 years ago by LANTERN.

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San Diego, CA
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 Posted: September 30, 2009, 9:04 am - IP Logged

Looking at the total history of Georgia Evening:

Shortsum 0 has hit more times (not a lot more) than any other shortsum.  It has hit 607 times.  The average for shortsum 0 is 9.71 compared to what the average should be of 10.  Currently shortsum 0 has skipped 11 draws.

BTW, shortsum 7 has skipped 45 draws!!

To answer your question about what is hot, I think that anything that is hitting more than what would be average is hot.

9/29 Evening = 205 shortsum 7!!

atlanta
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 Posted: September 30, 2009, 9:27 am - IP Logged

Thank you first for the hard work you do.  i'm new here at LP would like what is the short sum for 0?  That seem like its the next hot number.

San Diego, CA
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 Posted: September 30, 2009, 9:32 am - IP Logged

Thank you first for the hard work you do.  i'm new here at LP would like what is the short sum for 0?  That seem like its the next hot number.

See my blog.

Switching between Fairfax, VA and Belgium
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 Posted: September 30, 2009, 7:06 pm - IP Logged

Looking at the total history of Georgia Evening:

Shortsum 0 has hit more times (not a lot more) than any other shortsum.  It has hit 607 times.  The average for shortsum 0 is 9.71 compared to what the average should be of 10.  Currently shortsum 0 has skipped 11 draws.

BTW, shortsum 7 has skipped 45 draws!!

To answer your question about what is hot, I think that anything that is hitting more than what would be average is hot.

Hi Jack-C,

thanks for your response,

As to your last line there, "To answer your question about what is hot, I think that anything that is hitting more than what would be average is hot"
--> I agree, at least, partially.
If we take digits, box, that means any position, for each digit the average would be a hit every 3.333 draws.
To have reliable data, lets take the last 10 draws, which give us 30 possible hits (10 draws * 3 digits = 30)
So mathematically spoken, each digit should hit 3 times.

Now, assuming digit X has hit 4 times, do we consider it to be hot?

Let's take this a little further: assuming digit X has it 7 times (more than twice the average), do we consider it hot?
What if that digit X has hit 7 times during the 'first' 6 draws of our 10 draws, but has not shown in the last 4 draws? Is it still considered hot?
Even more, what if that digit X has it 7 times, but twice using a double (XXY, XYX), what grade do we give it in those circumstances?
And assuming digit Y, during those same 10 draws, has only hit 3 times which is the average (so "not hot"), but those 3 times were within the last 4 draws, then what do we grade that digit Y?

I hope everyone understands that it go's a little further than just saying "if it scores over the average, we name it "Hot".)

Think outside the box here, people.

By taking a glance at things, in a split second person A may see that an 'Item' is hot.
The trick is, person A provides a logical breakdown (a detailed process, written down), so that Person B (who knows nothing of statistics etcetera) can read and follow that "proces" and will come to the same conclusion as Person A.

cheers
Ricky

lasas3

An onion a day keeps everyone away!!!

Stone Mountain*Georgia
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 Posted: October 4, 2009, 10:09 am - IP Logged

Hot ?

Perhaps the best way to approach this question is the same way top designers do...... (form follows function).  I have always been very drawn to visual data representation models using color intensity.

Heatmaps software   ?     Used with various data subjects and visual que applications ...... financial, ....options traders etc.

Has anyone had experience with this software ?

The triggers .... tracking measurements used  etc.

The only real failure .....is the failure to try.

Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much.

Odds never change .....but probability does.

Win d

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 Posted: October 4, 2009, 8:41 pm - IP Logged

anything above Ur BODY TEMP.

And the answer is ???       U won't get it, if u don't ask the question ??

Atlanta,GA
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 Posted: October 4, 2009, 9:02 pm - IP Logged

Hi,

i ask this question to gather some opinions on this matter.
Here's an example: There are 10 shortsums in a Pick3 game,
The average skip of each shortsum is 10 draws.

Let's say we look at the last 5 times each shortsum has come in,
and the example take is GA eve
Shortsum 0 : 10  15  6  5  10
Shortsum 1 : 12  5  0  22  5
Shortsum 2 : 6  18  4  1  5
Shortsum 3 : 21  14  14  5  15
Shortsum 4 : 7  7  7  11  13
Shortsum 5 : 0  0  7  10  1
Shortsum 6 : 2  8  5  6  28
Shortsum 7 : 45  15  27  1  0
Shortsum 8 : 14  13  2  8  0
Shortsum 9 : 3  0  0  2  4

Please say, in your point of view, which shortsum(s) should be considered to be hot, and with a little explanation, it would be great.

The digits: Again, in your point of view, when is a digit 'hot' or should be considered hot?

Same for boxed pairs, and straight pairs, etc...

Just express your opinion on this matter please.
If you think of any other filter-item you would like to talk about, please do so.

Wanna talk about when some item is 'cold', feel welcome to do so.

cheers
Ricky

I would say the 9 is very hot.  I have been watching the pick 3 for the past 90 days or more.

If you think you can or if you think you can't you are right!

Today could be the day!

Atlanta,GA
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 Posted: October 4, 2009, 9:09 pm - IP Logged
 Shortsum 0 A 10 15 6 5 10 Shortsum 1 A 12 5 0 22 5 Shortsum 2 H 6 18 4 1 5 Shortsum 3 C 21 14 14 5 15 Shortsum 4 A 7 7 7 11 13 Shortsum 5 VH 0 0 7 10 1 Shortsum 6 A 2 8 5 6 28 Shortsum 7 C 45 15 27 1 0 Shortsum 8 H 14 13 2 8 0 Shortsum 9 VH 3 0 0 2 4

VH=Very Hot

Ok, now I understand. I would pick 9 ,5  & 6. That is what it look like to me.

If you think you can or if you think you can't you are right!

Today could be the day!

New Jersey
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 Posted: October 7, 2009, 3:04 pm - IP Logged

Hi,

do not pick just one from the list, but look at all of them,
surely sometimes one would pick several that match "hot", no?

For example, if the average skip is 10, and the last 3 skips were let's say 5  8  4
then the sum of those skips would be 17.
Devided by 3, that makes 5,6 average.
So 5.6 is lower than for example 6 (as milestone, everything that is lower skip than the 'milestone' is hot), or 7 (as milestone), or 8 (as milestone), then something is hot.
That is what i mean with my question.

cheers
Ricky

Recurrence Interval: An average time between past events.

Recurrence Interval (calculated from past events) is used to gauge the future probability of an event (Forecasting).

Forecasting: Refers to the future likelihood of a random event.

A mind once stretched by a new idea never returns to its original dimensions!

ORLANDO, FLORIDA
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 Posted: October 7, 2009, 3:35 pm - IP Logged

Recurrence Interval: An average time between past events.

Recurrence Interval (calculated from past events) is used to gauge the future probability of an event (Forecasting).

Forecasting: Refers to the future likelihood of a random event.

How would this be used in Ricky's example?

Hi,

i ask this question to gather some opinions on this matter.
Here's an example: There are 10 shortsums in a Pick3 game,
The average skip of each shortsum is 10 draws.

Let's say we look at the last 5 times each shortsum has come in,
and the example take is GA eve
Shortsum 0 : 10  15  6  5  10
Shortsum 1 : 12  5  0  22  5
Shortsum 2 : 6  18  4  1  5
Shortsum 3 : 21  14  14  5  15
Shortsum 4 : 7  7  7  11  13
Shortsum 5 : 0  0  7  10  1
Shortsum 6 : 2  8  5  6  28
Shortsum 7 : 45  15  27  1  0
Shortsum 8 : 14  13  2  8  0
Shortsum 9 : 3  0  0  2  4

New Jersey
United States
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June 28, 2005
51255 Posts
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 Posted: October 7, 2009, 5:34 pm - IP Logged

How would this be used in Ricky's example?

Hi,

i ask this question to gather some opinions on this matter.
Here's an example: There are 10 shortsums in a Pick3 game,
The average skip of each shortsum is 10 draws.

Let's say we look at the last 5 times each shortsum has come in,
and the example take is GA eve
Shortsum 0 : 10  15  6  5  10
Shortsum 1 : 12  5  0  22  5
Shortsum 2 : 6  18  4  1  5
Shortsum 3 : 21  14  14  5  15
Shortsum 4 : 7  7  7  11  13
Shortsum 5 : 0  0  7  10  1
Shortsum 6 : 2  8  5  6  28
Shortsum 7 : 45  15  27  1  0
Shortsum 8 : 14  13  2  8  0
Shortsum 9 : 3  0  0  2  4

Average Recurrance Interval (T)=Sum of the Skips Divided by the Number of Drawings

The probability (P) of an event with recurrence interval T is

P = 1/T

The probability PT that a given event will be equaled or exceeded at least once in the next r-draws is:

PT = 1�P^r

T=10+15+6+5+10/5=9.2

P=1/9.2=0.108695652173913043478260869565217

PT=1-0.108695652173913043478260869565217^1=0.891304347826086956521739130435

A mind once stretched by a new idea never returns to its original dimensions!

ORLANDO, FLORIDA
United States
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June 3, 2004
5982 Posts
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 Posted: October 8, 2009, 4:32 am - IP Logged

Average Recurrance Interval (T)=Sum of the Skips Divided by the Number of Drawings

The probability (P) of an event with recurrence interval T is

P = 1/T

The probability PT that a given event will be equaled or exceeded at least once in the next r-draws is:

PT = 1�P^r

T=10+15+6+5+10/5=9.2

P=1/9.2=0.108695652173913043478260869565217

PT=1-0.108695652173913043478260869565217^1=0.891304347826086956521739130435

Thanks Raven!!!

Switching between Fairfax, VA and Belgium
Belgium
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July 29, 2005
2254 Posts
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 Posted: October 11, 2009, 1:42 pm - IP Logged

Average Recurrance Interval (T)=Sum of the Skips Divided by the Number of Drawings

The probability (P) of an event with recurrence interval T is

P = 1/T

The probability PT that a given event will be equaled or exceeded at least once in the next r-draws is:

PT = 1�P^r

T=10+15+6+5+10/5=9.2

P=1/9.2=0.108695652173913043478260869565217

PT=1-0.108695652173913043478260869565217^1=0.891304347826086956521739130435

Thanks Raven62,

the math is not what i was looking for, i have use that in the Due & Overdue part of my software.

What i am looking for is a definition of when "we" consider something to be hot, warm, cold, ...

For a person that lives in a city and almost never walks but always takes the subway or a cab, walking a distance of 10 miles may seem long.
For a person that lives in the country and almost never uses a car but always walks, walking a distance of 10 miles may not seem long.

Now, neither one of them is correct ofcourse, since their opinion is bound to their own way of life.

But, if we take the human body into consideration, by looking at the legs, feet, knees, ... we may be able to come to an agreement of what may be defined as a long distance to walk and what as short distance to walk.
If for example our findings would be that a distance of 5 miles is an average distance then we may also come to an understanding that for example 10 miles is a long distance, and 20 miles is a very long distance.

Does this makes it anymore clearer as to what my initial question was...?

cheers
Ricky

lasas3

An onion a day keeps everyone away!!!

Stone Mountain*Georgia
United States
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November 2, 2002
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 Posted: October 13, 2009, 11:17 pm - IP Logged

Gee Ricky......  Is it actually the "Standard "  you are trying to establish.

The standard for ....... a unit of intensity ?   How hot ?  How cold ? ....

Are you looking for .......a general consensus to form a standard of measurement ?

I think that's your focus .....   maybe.

Some starting point approaches to establishing units of intensity .....or standards could be found here:

The only real failure .....is the failure to try.

Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much.

Odds never change .....but probability does.

Win d

MD
United States
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June 18, 2003
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 Posted: October 13, 2009, 11:40 pm - IP Logged

When is something considered 'Hot'?

When it burns you!

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