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When is something considered 'Hot'?

Topic closed. 56 replies. Last post 7 years ago by LANTERN.

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Posted: October 14, 2009, 10:10 am - IP Logged

Hi Ricky:

The term "hot" is what we would call a fuzzy logic term. A fuzzy logic term requires a "home made" definition, since there's no unique way to define the term. We all know what"equal" means. Given any two numbers we can immediately discern whether they are equal or not. Suppose we invent a new term, "almost equal". What does it mean when we say that A is "almost equal" to B? We'd have to come up with a home brewed definition of what "almost equal" means to answer the question. One such definition may be:  A is almost  equal to B if the absolute difference between A and B does not exceed 1. There are a myriad of ways we could give a definition to "almost equal".

As in the "almost equal" case, the same goes for the term "hot", with respect to short sums. I'd be inclined to base my definition of "hot" on expected value. So, for example, based on the last 50 draws each short sum has an expected number, N, of occurences.  For a given sum, if the number of occurences exceeded N by some number M, then that sum would be considered hot. What you are asking for is: Exactly what value should M have?  One way to answer the question is to try different values ( 3, 4, 5, 6 etc) and choose the one that would have led to making the largest profit over those past 50 draws. The bottom line is that no matter which method you choose to give a measure to "hot", it will most likely not function well as a global measure. That is, what "hot" means  in Texas, may only turn out to be what "warm" is in Connecticut(assuming you came up with a definition for warm).

 

Regards,

 

jayemmar

    paurths's avatar - underground
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    Posted: October 14, 2009, 12:41 pm - IP Logged

    Hi Ricky:

    The term "hot" is what we would call a fuzzy logic term. A fuzzy logic term requires a "home made" definition, since there's no unique way to define the term. We all know what"equal" means. Given any two numbers we can immediately discern whether they are equal or not. Suppose we invent a new term, "almost equal". What does it mean when we say that A is "almost equal" to B? We'd have to come up with a home brewed definition of what "almost equal" means to answer the question. One such definition may be:  A is almost  equal to B if the absolute difference between A and B does not exceed 1. There are a myriad of ways we could give a definition to "almost equal".

    As in the "almost equal" case, the same goes for the term "hot", with respect to short sums. I'd be inclined to base my definition of "hot" on expected value. So, for example, based on the last 50 draws each short sum has an expected number, N, of occurences.  For a given sum, if the number of occurences exceeded N by some number M, then that sum would be considered hot. What you are asking for is: Exactly what value should M have?  One way to answer the question is to try different values ( 3, 4, 5, 6 etc) and choose the one that would have led to making the largest profit over those past 50 draws. The bottom line is that no matter which method you choose to give a measure to "hot", it will most likely not function well as a global measure. That is, what "hot" means  in Texas, may only turn out to be what "warm" is in Connecticut(assuming you came up with a definition for warm).

     

    Regards,

     

    jayemmar

    Hi jayemmar,

    thanks for your response.

    I have posted this question here on LP because i wanted to see what people would write about it.
    Taking all the responses together and find some kind of "common ground".
    Surely everyone must have their own opinion on the subject.

    As it is now, a person that is used to play the pick 3 game, and takes a look at the statistics of a given item, can tell in a split second "oh, that item looks hot".
    That is great, but i want to dig a little deeper here, and ask that person, "okay, can you tell why it seems hot to you, in detail, please?", or, "why does it fit the situation hot for you?".
    Most people see a car driving by and say "WAW!!! what a great car!!!". And when you ask them, "why is that a great car", they think and think and can not come up with a reason, except "well, the looks of it feel great".

    That is great for them, but of no value when projecting that into a larger model of "when does the looks of a car make you go WAW!!!?"

    cheers
    Ricky

    lasas3

    An onion a day keeps everyone away!!!

      paurths's avatar - underground
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      Posted: October 14, 2009, 12:42 pm - IP Logged

       Gee Ricky......  Is it actually the "Standard "  you are trying to establish. 

                  The standard for ....... a unit of intensity ?   How hot ?  How cold ? .... 

                   Are you looking for .......a general consensus to form a standard of measurement ?

                    I think that's your focus .....   maybe. 

       

       

                  Some starting point approaches to establishing units of intensity .....or standards could be found here:   

       

                       http://writing.colostate.edu/guides/research/stats/com5a2.cfm

      Hi Chaz,

      exactly, that is exactly what i am trying to find out, a general concensus, usable for the majority of people.

      cheers
      Ricky

      lasas3

      An onion a day keeps everyone away!!!

        paurths's avatar - underground
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        Posted: October 14, 2009, 12:44 pm - IP Logged

        btw, to have so many pick3 players visiting LP, there are very, very few responses to this queest lol

        lasas3

        An onion a day keeps everyone away!!!

          Raven62's avatar - binary
          New Jersey
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          Posted: October 14, 2009, 2:54 pm - IP Logged

          Hi jayemmar,

          thanks for your response.

          I have posted this question here on LP because i wanted to see what people would write about it.
          Taking all the responses together and find some kind of "common ground".
          Surely everyone must have their own opinion on the subject.

          As it is now, a person that is used to play the pick 3 game, and takes a look at the statistics of a given item, can tell in a split second "oh, that item looks hot".
          That is great, but i want to dig a little deeper here, and ask that person, "okay, can you tell why it seems hot to you, in detail, please?", or, "why does it fit the situation hot for you?".
          Most people see a car driving by and say "WAW!!! what a great car!!!". And when you ask them, "why is that a great car", they think and think and can not come up with a reason, except "well, the looks of it feel great".

          That is great for them, but of no value when projecting that into a larger model of "when does the looks of a car make you go WAW!!!?"

          cheers
          Ricky

          It's a response from the subconscience: Consciencely one can't put their finger on any one thing that makes the car great, because it's a composite of many factors at the subconscience level.

          A mind once stretched by a new idea never returns to its original dimensions!

            sysp34's avatar - Lottery-062.jpg
            Heroic City
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            Posted: October 14, 2009, 3:27 pm - IP Logged

            well determine what "hot" little bit "tough" since there are only digit 0 to 9 in perimeter.

            here are some simple stats for FL Cash 3

             

            Percentileskip count
            Overall Pos.hitskipskip count0.1000.2500.3750.5000.6250.7500.875112345678910
            02083301123347164338302610711533
            1220231112234618573126211955553
            22184230122357144246162312118591
            319814311234581743352017201091052
            4236237111234622573726181573516
            52241500122357155039192015510614
            6177961123468173533201316810860
            723777111234713603327178127553
            82051501123357195034291712127625
            92376130112346155533172216135742

            and hot numbers would be 2 since reach skip 4 in 200 skip history (using last 720 draws) it shown 23 times or a quick looking compare hit with skip count, looking above chart for skip count it seem "hot" numbers are numbers that in last two draws eg: 358 .1

            from above chart hot number are

             

            Percentileskip count
            Overall Pos.hitskipskip count0.1000.2500.3750.5000.6250.7500.875112345678910
            1220231112234618573126211955553
            22184230122357144246162312118591
            4236237111234622573726181573516
            52241500122357155039192015510614
            723777111234713603327178127553
            92376130112346155533172216135742

             

            259 since it shown repeated or double indicate by 0 and 147 and for next draws number 1 or 4 will be appears

            also if there are cloudy stats we might use bridge from digit string 3/4/5/6 "all for one and one for hit" lol

            good luck

            Et erunt signa in sole.......Et luna et stellis.......Et presura gentium
            Prae confusione sonitus maris.


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              Posted: October 15, 2009, 10:58 am - IP Logged

              Ricky:

               

              Have you ever considered the use of neural networks in your quest to come up with an indicator for what is "hot"?  Neural networks are known to mimic the human brain.

               

              jayemmar

                sysp34's avatar - Lottery-062.jpg
                Heroic City
                Indonesia
                Member #31689
                February 2, 2006
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                Posted: October 18, 2009, 7:22 pm - IP Logged

                well determine what "hot" little bit "tough" since there are only digit 0 to 9 in perimeter.

                here are some simple stats for FL Cash 3

                 

                Percentileskip count
                Overall Pos.hitskipskip count0.1000.2500.3750.5000.6250.7500.875112345678910
                02083301123347164338302610711533
                1220231112234618573126211955553
                22184230122357144246162312118591
                319814311234581743352017201091052
                4236237111234622573726181573516
                52241500122357155039192015510614
                6177961123468173533201316810860
                723777111234713603327178127553
                82051501123357195034291712127625
                92376130112346155533172216135742

                and hot numbers would be 2 since reach skip 4 in 200 skip history (using last 720 draws) it shown 23 times or a quick looking compare hit with skip count, looking above chart for skip count it seem "hot" numbers are numbers that in last two draws eg: 358 .1

                from above chart hot number are

                 

                Percentileskip count
                Overall Pos.hitskipskip count0.1000.2500.3750.5000.6250.7500.875112345678910
                1220231112234618573126211955553
                22184230122357144246162312118591
                4236237111234622573726181573516
                52241500122357155039192015510614
                723777111234713603327178127553
                92376130112346155533172216135742

                 

                259 since it shown repeated or double indicate by 0 and 147 and for next draws number 1 or 4 will be appears

                also if there are cloudy stats we might use bridge from digit string 3/4/5/6 "all for one and one for hit" lol

                good luck

                well i dunno if this "stats" help to understand what hot...? below stats for ontario pick 3 last 720 draws

                 

                Overall Pos.   skip countPercentile     
                648hitskipmax123456789100.1000.2500.3750.5000.6250.7500.8751
                0238216523728171757510012234616
                11939255028202114174434112345725
                22191014453133221968770112335714
                32224145342191719116433112235614
                42391145335261715125601011234614
                52244145134201814137642012235714
                62011185231232871210836112345718
                72045214629331417107792112335721
                82091144230232317159654012345714
                92118154741231615127664112235715
                03454602
                skip count
                Digit Stringhitskipmax12345678910
                124129899452713833100
                194048888532915831200
                294308986533115641210
                max04477189163248912100
                avg14432111106482115232000
                1296238612344246110000
                1276165612845177110000
                max0457011813345144200100
                avg1346541413744153000000
                min16759816116482211020000
                12798275414933143000000
                1235858461583451010000
                max0345923181613141100100
                avg1247855151583451100000
                min16788071514343111100000
                Position 1   skip countPercentile     
                6hitskipmax123456789100.1000.2500.3750.5000.6250.7500.8751
                090334101511774642212357101934
                16619479442647224135710152447
                277103612573445504135710141736
                370154552521145433356810141845
                4664527464246323236811152252
                57275511475253313135711141755
                6701651256714361413479152265
                76529626277602325245811142162
                8692363654763422256811151936
                9758378547555343245710131837
                0235694541
                skip count
                Digit Stringhitskipmax12345678910
                1235794257712846177001000
                1234574164813038187410100
                max0235694541612742185340000
                avg01356843716119471810320000
                min1346784061712635238232000
                1237935388104452912431100
                1235735078110461914711100
                max023593843811044229850100
                avg45789347210100532410612021
                min13478336211108412310654010
                12372781023913630161065202
                1239288815795330101084301
                max025931431291472415574500
                avg158928229695929161452230
                min1478266212774331161094610
                137201152372262421181110424
                123213102562353712181112404
                max029242320724625216126321
                avg0482252176348231714116740
                min1471974176233311316117841
                Position 2   skip countPercentile     
                4hitskipmax123456789100.1000.2500.3750.5000.6250.7500.8751
                0663386344936221255712162238
                16124496373483213236610122549
                26016413452614432257914192341
                37911371193864470213468142037
                492151111131196544613468101451
                5904447810868537623569101344
                6681557843873363214579141957
                7795628949745466113579121828
                8662525642785312256710142452
                9599431446343521357813172643
                0345674741
                skip count
                Digit Stringhitskipmax12345678910
                1236794069610557239410000
                12356743745121412212300000
                max0345674741512452166100000
                avg0134684321913442146101010
                min012689380210105492511710001
                12367347119905825111220010
                123693279682573315930000
                max3456740815109482614200000
                avg567893622997522414631110
                min0128931221379503124841100
                12672681513734626172264121
                12362681111695129221482101
                max345734019924528151332010
                avg1689254212725229811128410
                min0129246313644233261192721
                12720016185740301517912733
                12618915174738281818136724
                max345261112743932241164431
                avg0582222155148292119128132
                min129180916423132191596555
                Position 3   skip countPercentile     
                8hitskipmax123456789100.1000.2500.3750.5000.6250.7500.8751
                0822378114794635123568121937
                1669467344744525245710132346
                28214468393109343324569121646
                37343864411365153246710132038
                48136349107932953313478112034
                5621746942344734114679152646
                6637974522159443267911132097
                7605506135532554257910152150
                8741461364732940413478132146
                977124171011514424223479131941
                0234894691
                skip count
                Digit Stringhitskipmax12345678910
                12456943178642371300100
                12456741458612564200100
                max023489469156719111100000
                avg01357841716542877210000
                min135678398185126124311100
                12459368995625113210010
                1245635478552494500200
                max02489396175625114201000
                avg056793442944141913320130
                min135673244114123167621200
                245930212104627125412011
                1245291995022135610020
                max0249322284922165420100
                avg026930421142191931110111
                min1567251526291718151023110
                24522514133726109823210
                24924012103227198711121
                max024245294420148341410
                avg01521021226181614923711
                min567185528271415131033341

                found any way to define what hot?? x71  271  771 for next draws??

                good luck

                Et erunt signa in sole.......Et luna et stellis.......Et presura gentium
                Prae confusione sonitus maris.


                  LANTERN's avatar - kilroy 28_173_reasonably_small.jpg
                  Tx
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                  Posted: October 19, 2009, 12:04 am - IP Logged

                  It was already said, but anything that happens more often that what the law of statistics says that it should can be taken as being hot, so let statistics define what is what, what might need a definition is how hot something is, in the same way, something that happens less often that it should is cold.

                  People don't have standard definitions of degrees of temperature in regard to lottery events.

                  What hot and cold are is not too hard to define.

                  BibleOnline  ParishesOnline  ChristianRadioOnline   MassOnline   Mass

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                    Posted: October 19, 2009, 12:14 am - IP Logged

                    Personally, I do not know when a short sum root is hot or cold unless you see it in recent patterns. This problem with using a method like this is that you will lose much more than you will win. But, If you would like to know what filters I use to get an idea of what "Might" come out, I filter the day of the week, the draw (mid/eve), and the odd day or even day. I set it up this way in my spread sheet.

                    "Many Strategies|One Game"

                      LANTERN's avatar - kilroy 28_173_reasonably_small.jpg
                      Tx
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                      Posted: October 19, 2009, 12:36 am - IP Logged

                      Personally, I do not know when a short sum root is hot or cold unless you see it in recent patterns. This problem with using a method like this is that you will lose much more than you will win. But, If you would like to know what filters I use to get an idea of what "Might" come out, I filter the day of the week, the draw (mid/eve), and the odd day or even day. I set it up this way in my spread sheet.

                      Whatever works for you, a filter is a filter anything that helps to predict or reduce is.

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                      "Ten measures of beauty descended to the world, nine were taken by Jerusalem."

                        LANTERN's avatar - kilroy 28_173_reasonably_small.jpg
                        Tx
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                        Posted: October 22, 2009, 1:06 am - IP Logged

                        LotSoft is very good software.

                        But for example, it would be nice if it had a way of entering past draws in a way such as Lotto Sorcerer has it is very nice and automatic, almost, you still have to enter the draw with the enter key.

                        Draws should be automaticaly entered after you enter the third digit for that draw and the date should have automatic advance as some lottery programs have, each state could have a profile of what days of the week it holds draws for each particular game so it woiuld know how to advance the draw date after you input the draws, that is the one single thing that LotSoft does not do so well.

                        Of course, some visual kinds of stats other than the ones that it already has, would make the program better for some or many people.

                        I find visual stats of as much help as the numbers stats, as to the filtered wheeler it is very good, but it still does not have a few filters that some even very older software has, including more suport for pairs filters.

                        I also didn't see the Tx pick 4 yet added to it, the online automatic update of the draws on the demo trial version didn't add Tx to the pick 4.

                        That was version 3.5.0.

                        I almost forgot, compound filters it has none of them, even Chaz and Bob use them.

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                        "Ten measures of beauty descended to the world, nine were taken by Jerusalem."