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A question about lotto system odds

Topic closed. 36 replies. Last post 7 years ago by Coin Toss.

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Posted: January 10, 2010, 6:26 am - IP Logged


There is a mid point where the odds improvement ratio goes into decline.

If you continue the progression you end with
13.9 tickets in 1 (chance to win) so in that sense it works.

BobP

She told me if she played 17.500 lines she would win 65% of the time the top prize, she has only one chance in 17.500 even tho she plays around about 8 lines you would think if she plays 8 lines that would mean she has 8 chances in 17.500 ,well she doesn’t only one chance she told me, it’s the way she dose it, she really has cracked the lottery, she also said with more money playing more lines she could reduce the odds down a lot more, when she wins the big one she told she will tell me on how she dose it cart wait I have been looking a nice houses and sports cars since she said that working out what I am going to buy with my jackpot win when it comes my way LOL

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    Kentucky
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    Posted: January 10, 2010, 9:21 am - IP Logged

    savagegoose

    "

    yea shes prob telling the truth. buy an extra ticket you double yourchance, ie half your odds. repeat untill the odds are 1 in 17k .

    so

    2 tickets 1 i 7 mill

    4 tickets 1 in 3.5 mill

    8 tickets 1 in 1.75 mill

    16 tickets 1 in 870k

    32 tickets 1 in 435k

    64 tickets 1 in 220k"

    Well why stop there? Just get enought people to kick in enough money so you actually have the odds down to an even money bet, or better yet, go a few more bucks and put them in your favor!!!

    Oh, that's right, "half your odds" is a fairy tale and the truth is each additional set of numbers played only reduces the possible combinations not played by one.

    Odds are calculate by chances to win to chances of losing and reduced to the lowest common denominator. If you're playing craps and your point is 5, there are 4 ways you can win by rolling a five and 6 ways you can lose by rolling a 7. The odds against you are 4 to 6 and reduced to 2 to 3. Buying 100 tickets in a 6/49 game gives you 100 ways to win and by subtracting 100 from all the possible ways (13,983,816) gives odds of 100 to 13,983,716 or 1 to 139,837.

    However to look at the odds more realistically and unless you have duplicate combinations, only 1 of those 100 tickets can win the jackpot. What we are really doing is making 100 different bets with each bet having 1 to 13,983,716 odds against us. Some look at as 1 chances out of every 139,837 chances as if there were 100 drawings.

    To me the best way is look at the percentages so even if I reduce the odds to 1 to 139.8 by buying 100,000 tickets, I still only have less than 1% (0.7%) of all the possible outcomes. If the math is correct there is no wrong way to express the odds and if someone is playing 8 combinations and saying they reduced the odds to 1 in 17,500 it's fine with me. Especially when they are matching 5 out of 6!

      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
      mid-Ohio
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      Posted: January 10, 2010, 11:26 am - IP Logged

      She told me if she played 17.500 lines she would win 65% of the time the top prize, she has only one chance in 17.500 even tho she plays around about 8 lines you would think if she plays 8 lines that would mean she has 8 chances in 17.500 ,well she doesn’t only one chance she told me, it’s the way she dose it, she really has cracked the lottery, she also said with more money playing more lines she could reduce the odds down a lot more, when she wins the big one she told she will tell me on how she dose it cart wait I have been looking a nice houses and sports cars since she said that working out what I am going to buy with my jackpot win when it comes my way LOL

      Don't count the chickens before they hatch.        TurkeyTurkeyTurkey

      Thinking of...

       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
         
                   Evil Looking       

        Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
        Zeta Reticuli Star System
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        Posted: January 10, 2010, 1:27 pm - IP Logged


        There is a mid point where the odds improvement ratio goes into decline.

        If you continue the progression you end with
        13.9 tickets in 1 (chance to win) so in that sense it works.

        BobP

        Only if you believe in an "odds improvement ratio" and aren't playing to hit solid.

        Every line played reduces the numbers of combinations covered by one combination and only one combination.

        In an endeavor (hitting a jackpot) with odds in the tens of millions and hundreds of millions to one, each combination covered isn't even a fraction of one grain of sand on a beach.

        Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

        Lep

        There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

          savagegoose's avatar - ProfilePho
          adelaide sa
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          Posted: January 10, 2010, 2:11 pm - IP Logged

          so 2/6 isnt equal to 1/3 ? its more like 4/6 of losing.  i hear you about the not destroying 7 million odd by buying one extra ticket.  if only we could always lose 7 mill chance by buying an extra ticket.

           

          so you would rather

           

          2 tickets =  13M-2 out of 13 mill odds of losing

          4 tickets = 13M-4 out of 13 mill odds of losing

          8 tickets = 13M-8 out of 13 mill odds of losing

           

          etc. sorry mate i prefer my way , it keeps me hopeful

           

          oh and as stack pointed out, it dont help ifd you play the same 6 numbers on all your tickets.

          2014 = -1016; 2015= -1409; 2016 JAN = -106; FEB= -81; MAR= -131; APR= - 87: MAY= -91; JUN= -39; JUL=-134; AUG= -124; SEP = -123; OCT= -84  NOV=- 73 TOT= -3498

          keno historic = -2291 ; 2015= -603; 2016= JAN=-32, FEB= +12 , MAR= -86, APR = -77. MAY= -48, JUN= -29, JUL=-71; AUG = -52; SEPT= -43; OCT = +56 NOV = -33 TOT= -3297

            BobP's avatar - bobp avatar.png
            Dump Water Florida
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            Posted: January 11, 2010, 2:08 am - IP Logged

            Only if you believe in an "odds improvement ratio" and aren't playing to hit solid.

            Every line played reduces the numbers of combinations covered by one combination and only one combination.

            In an endeavor (hitting a jackpot) with odds in the tens of millions and hundreds of millions to one, each combination covered isn't even a fraction of one grain of sand on a beach.

            I find it funny that whether you buy one ticket or one hundred tickets your odds of winning are effectively zero. 

            If buying 13.9 million unique tickets guarantees one 6/49 lottery jackpot and buying one ticket is up against 13.9 million unique combinations, what falls inbetween must be valid as well, provided as you say we're looking at odds and not playing expecting a solid hit.

            It is interesting that if we consider a 6/48 game or getting all six winning numbers correct among 48 of the 49 numbers and all 48 were put into play in the minimum number of lines (8) only six of those lines or less can contain winning numbers.  This does take the odds of that draw down from 6/48 to 6/36 or less depending on how they fall.   Of course because you still have to buy 8 lines the odds per dollar remains the same.   If the state offers two plays for a dollar the odds per dollar play are cut in half, yet the game odds remain the same. 

            BobP

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              Posted: January 11, 2010, 9:25 am - IP Logged

              My friend showed me how to do her system had me up last night it did with excitement felt like I had just dug up some treasure she has got the odds down to just 17.500 to one as in 17.500 combinations, I no nor think about the lottery or systems only my mates, trying to work out some think hear my maths at school wasn’t very good I need your help thanks,

               

              If I am playing the lottery game 6/49 and I have once chance in 17.500 trying to work out what the percentage is of all the combinations 13.983.816 now I have worked it out 01% is =13.988 is that right? People on here you now what you’re talking about, if I have one chance in 17.500 playing the lottery what’s my chances of wining the big one really?

                RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                mid-Ohio
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                Posted: January 11, 2010, 12:27 pm - IP Logged

                My friend showed me how to do her system had me up last night it did with excitement felt like I had just dug up some treasure she has got the odds down to just 17.500 to one as in 17.500 combinations, I no nor think about the lottery or systems only my mates, trying to work out some think hear my maths at school wasn’t very good I need your help thanks,

                 

                If I am playing the lottery game 6/49 and I have once chance in 17.500 trying to work out what the percentage is of all the combinations 13.983.816 now I have worked it out 01% is =13.988 is that right? People on here you now what you’re talking about, if I have one chance in 17.500 playing the lottery what’s my chances of wining the big one really?

                Keep track of all your matches and the number of lines you play and you should be able to figure your real odds of winning a jackpot using you friend's system.  Below is a chart showing the odds of a match normally expected in a 6/49 game.  If your odds are really reduced to 1:17000 then you should beat those odds by 82258%.


                  MATCH   ODDS
                  6/6    1 : 13983816
                  5/6    1 : 54201
                  4/6    1 : 1032
                  3/6    1 : 57
                  2/6    1 : 8
                  1/6    1 : 2
                 __________________________
                 overall odds are 1 : 1.7

                 * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                   
                             Evil Looking       

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                  Posted: January 11, 2010, 1:22 pm - IP Logged

                  Why isnt she driving a Porsche I wonder? Clown

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                    Posted: January 11, 2010, 3:06 pm - IP Logged

                    A friend of mine has worked out a system on the lottery where by she has reduced the odds from nearly 14.000.000 to 1 down to 17.000 to 1,

                    That’s 822 times easer to win she has just finished working it out, she only plays a few lines at a time each play,

                    My question is this IS IT POSSAIBLE or is she lying to me, I have been on the internet and found no lotto system in the world that can do that please give me your comments on it thanks sally.

                    A system for reducing the odds on matching all 6 numbers chosen out of a field of 49?   No.   However if you're talking about a system to minimize the number of tickets required to cover all 5 number combinations then it's possible but this really doesn't improve your chances but rather avoids the risk of inadvertently making your chances worse.

                    For example, if you bought the following ticket:

                    1 2 3 4 5 6

                    It would cover the following six five number combinations.

                    1 2 3 4 5

                    1 2 3 4 6

                    1 2 3 5 6

                    1 2 4 5 6

                    1 3 4 5 6

                    2 3 4 5 6

                    If you bought another ticket that shared some of those five number combinations then you are buying fewer chances then you could've ie.: the two tickets 1 2 3 4 5 6 and 1 2 3 4 5 7 would have fewer chances at matching five numbers then the two tickets 1 2 3 4 5 6 and 1 2 3 4 7 8.   If you look at four number combinations instead of five or at three number combinations instead of five then you could be reducing the set of tickets to purchase in order to cover all possible three or four number combinations.   Again, this doesn't improve your chances, it just avoids throwing away chances.

                    Note there are only certain numbers that work out evenly but for those that do, the number of tickets to buy could be calculated by fCn / pCn where f is the field to draw from, p is the number of balls drawn in the game and n is the size of the smaller combinations to cover.   I know that it works out evenly for a field of 8 balls where 4 is drawn and you're trying to cover all 2 ball combinations, it works out evenly for a field of 16 balls where 4 is draw and you're covering 2 ball combinations, and it works for a field of 8 balls where 4 are drawn and you're covering 3 balls but it doesn't work out evenly for a field of 16, 24, or 32 when 4 are drawn but you're trying to cover 3 ball combinations.   Even though it probably doesn't work out evenly for a 6/49 game with the focus on covering all 3 number combinations, you can estimate the minimum number of tickets such an approach would require in that game as 921 tickets.

                    Given that 49C3 is 18,424 which seems close to the 17,000 number you've mentioned, this is probably what she has stumbled on but just hasn't worked out properly.

                    Most of the various wheels are based on the subsets where such patterns work out evenly or where they can be padded without too many repeating combinations but that means they are dependent on the six balls drawn being part of the subset and if you worked out the odds of that, it works out to be quite pathetic.   Still that doesn't stop people from sorting the balls by frequency drawn hoping that some issue such as the amount of paint on the balls makes a difference.

                    How many lines does she play? 920? 140?

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                      Posted: January 11, 2010, 4:32 pm - IP Logged

                      She plays round about 8 lines she showed me on how she done it, if every one in the UK played the lottery using her system to many people would win the jackpot prize it wouldn’t be worth playing any more

                       

                      In the UK its Camelot that runs the lottery, I wonder if they would pay me of

                      What would you do with the worlds best lottery system one they would change all lottery around the world give me your idea? and i will share the profit with you

                        Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                        Zeta Reticuli Star System
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                        Posted: January 11, 2010, 5:36 pm - IP Logged

                        Stack47

                        "However to look at the odds more realistically and unless you haveduplicate combinations, only 1 of those 100 tickets can win thejackpot. What we are really doing is making 100 different bets witheach bet having 1 to 13,983,716 odds against us. Some look at as 1chances out of every 139,837 chances as if there were 100 drawings."

                        Excellent.

                        sally18,

                        I would really like to see someone fill out 17,500 games per drawing. Most U.S. lotteries have 5 games (one or two lines of numbers depending on the game)  per playslip. That would make 3,500 playslips per drawing. That alone would be a full time job with plenty of OT.

                        Also, a team of players once hit a lottety (I think it was Virginia) by playing a huge amount of combinations. Since then no one is allowed to tie up a termainal over a certain amount of time.

                        Once upon a time....

                        Tell your friend there's a room waiting for her at the Institute for the Lottery Insane.


                        Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                        Lep

                        There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

                          time*treat's avatar - radar

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                          Posted: January 11, 2010, 5:41 pm - IP Logged

                          Just about any of the brute-force methods that have worked in the past have been defeated by a rule change.

                          In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
                          Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

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                            Posted: January 11, 2010, 7:06 pm - IP Logged

                            Stack47

                            "However to look at the odds more realistically and unless you haveduplicate combinations, only 1 of those 100 tickets can win thejackpot. What we are really doing is making 100 different bets witheach bet having 1 to 13,983,716 odds against us. Some look at as 1chances out of every 139,837 chances as if there were 100 drawings."

                            Excellent.

                            sally18,

                            I would really like to see someone fill out 17,500 games per drawing. Most U.S. lotteries have 5 games (one or two lines of numbers depending on the game)  per playslip. That would make 3,500 playslips per drawing. That alone would be a full time job with plenty of OT.

                            Also, a team of players once hit a lottety (I think it was Virginia) by playing a huge amount of combinations. Since then no one is allowed to tie up a termainal over a certain amount of time.

                            Once upon a time....

                            Tell your friend there's a room waiting for her at the Institute for the Lottery Insane.


                            FOR COLIN TOSSER

                             

                            You ask me how many times would my friend have to play 17.500 lines to hit the big jackpot on a 6/49 lottery game, she tested her sysTHIS IS Ftem on 1000 plays of the lottery she would have won 65% of the time wining the main jackpot

                             

                            In the UK there no limit on lottery tickets some one can buy,

                            from reading your post on this subject SYSTEMS odds you don’t know much do ya, you’ve been a member of this site since 2006 when I seen your user name I laugh my head of STAR SYSTEMS been watching to much star wars have ya, heard a saying on this site and though of you,

                            A mind once stretched by a new idea never returns to its original dimensions!

                            Bet your minds never been stretched has it Colin tosses, you’ve been picking every body else brains since 2006 for systems and still you no nor think

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                              Posted: January 11, 2010, 7:48 pm - IP Logged

                              She plays round about 8 lines she showed me on how she done it, if every one in the UK played the lottery using her system to many people would win the jackpot prize it wouldn’t be worth playing any more

                               

                              In the UK its Camelot that runs the lottery, I wonder if they would pay me of

                              What would you do with the worlds best lottery system one they would change all lottery around the world give me your idea? and i will share the profit with you

                              When playing just a few lines, I simply run through them to make certain that there's no smaller number combinations shared by any two of the numbers so that I know that I'm getting a wide a field as possible with those few tickets.   If the minimum prize is for a three number match then I make certain that there are no three number sequences shared by all the lines.   With a pick 6 game out of a field of 49, each line is one of 49C6 combinations and unless you bought the exact same numbers, there's no overlap hence each ticket has odds of 1 in 49C6 and the two tickets together represent odds of 2 in 49C6 which means it would take over 800 tickets to bring the odds down to 1 in 17,000 system or not.   If you qualify a win as being a three number match then yes you can buy a subset that covers all three number combinations of which there are 18,424 but keep in mind that the six numbers drawn will be 20 of those 18,424 combinations as each of your tickets will also be 20 of those combinations which means it should take at least 921 tickets to cover all 18,424 three number combinations, regardless the smaller field represents three, four, five or six number wins and you've only improved odds by changing your definition of a win.   Like I said before, the claims of improving the odds to 1 in 17,000 sounds like you've all just made a fundamental mistake and you have a faulty premise in your system.

                              Don't worry, if your friends system does work, the lottery commission will investigate the sudden increase in win frequency and put their mathematicians onto assessing whether or not it's a risk to their bottom line.

                              If you really want us to determine if there's anything to your system, post it and we'll have a look.   We're not professional mathematicians but a fair number of us should have the skills needed to sort out what's going on.

                              As to what to do with a working system.   If the system works with small purchases then I would quietly amass enough to pay my debts, establish financial security and then go around putting solar panels on people's homes.   Homes are a lot more expensive operationally then they need to be because people are already financially stretching it just to buy a house and hence do not pay the premium that would make the home inexpensive to own and operate so a lot of good can be done in the world by improving one home at a time and asking that family to pay it forward.   I would include financial education as a pre-requisite for the assistance, especially financial education for the children.