Michigan United States Member #22395 September 24, 2005 1583 Posts Offline

Posted: September 14, 2010, 1:18 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by twedk on September 14, 2010

It's seems you have all been busy.... this system is just something to help you pick a few numbers......don't go betting the house !!!

twedk,

With all due respect, your statement is irrelevant and immaterial!

The questions that have been raised are about whether TTT and your TTT in particular is a guaranteed way to lose money - or can it somehow be a way to make a profit.

Address that.

Not something trivial about betting the house. That has never been brought up, nor is it the issue. Post a way to make a profit using your TTT, otherwise it is a waste of time to continue this thread. People can buy quick picks, they don't need help to pick a few numbers. People want to win (show a profit) and so far there is nothing here to show how to accomplish that. Regardless if they bet a little bit or even if they do bet the house, profit is what it is all about.

United States Member #93947 July 10, 2010 2180 Posts Offline

Posted: September 14, 2010, 3:20 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Stack47 on September 13, 2010

"Well last month in Florida it had 19 hits."

But, but, but that is huge discrepancy when we have a guy claiming he accurately tested the same TTT you're using in Florida over 33.5 years (402 months) worth of drawings in PA and only had 162 hits. With only averaging one hit in 40% of the months, isn't it highly unlikely that any other state could possibly show even 4 or 5 hits a month?

I worked with people that showed me where their TTTs produced several hits a month, but I too was skeptical of how they could use it to turn a profit. A TTT using 7 digits has 343 possible three digit straight numbers and they couldn't make much of a profit by playing them all every day even if they could afford the cost of play. They had various ways of picking their combos, most of them only played 2 or 3 combos a drawing, and some of them did catch some hits.

The fact is, our statistician doesn't know how players like you use their TTTs or how they play the their numbers. If people are having fun making their TTTs, spending a couple of bucks, and catching a hit once in a while, they certainly don't need any useless information about how much they would lose playing the same way for an incredible 33.5 years.

*402, 162, and 343 might make an interesting TTT.

Stack47,

Could you please define what you mean by a "HIT?"

I suspect you're referring to BOX ticket bets.

How did you conclude that "A TTT using 7 digits has 343 possible three digit straight numbers..."?

You can't seem to make up your mind. How many ticket purchases per day do YOU estimate would be optimal in the design of a PROFITABLE Pick3 system?

The tests I ran produced between 160 and 187 Straight Hits BECAUSE they were based on placing an average of 14.6 Straight bets every day for about 11,660 days, for around 170,500 total tickets purchased. If you divide the number of tickets purchased by 1000, you will discover that, as Pascal and Fermat would have told you back in 1654, we got the expected result!

I think you're getting desperate, Stack47. How long is it going to take for you to get it? Or, maybe you do get it, but are struggling with what's discussed here:

http://www.deanesmay.com/posts/000013.html

"None of us really likes to admit being wrong. One of the most seductive ways to avoid that is to change our opinions retroactively. We say, 'No, no, you just misunderstood, you thought I was saying X when I really said Y.' Or, even worse, sometimes we just stubbornly refuse to acknowledge the evidence in front of us."

Kentucky United States Member #32652 February 14, 2006 7575 Posts Online

Posted: September 14, 2010, 8:49 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by jimmy4164 on September 14, 2010

Stack47,

Could you please define what you mean by a "HIT?"

I suspect you're referring to BOX ticket bets.

How did you conclude that "A TTT using 7 digits has 343 possible three digit straight numbers..."?

You can't seem to make up your mind. How many ticket purchases per day do YOU estimate would be optimal in the design of a PROFITABLE Pick3 system?

The tests I ran produced between 160 and 187 Straight Hits BECAUSE they were based on placing an average of 14.6 Straight bets every day for about 11,660 days, for around 170,500 total tickets purchased. If you divide the number of tickets purchased by 1000, you will discover that, as Pascal and Fermat would have told you back in 1654, we got the expected result!

I think you're getting desperate, Stack47. How long is it going to take for you to get it? Or, maybe you do get it, but are struggling with what's discussed here:

http://www.deanesmay.com/posts/000013.html

"None of us really likes to admit being wrong. One of the most seductive ways to avoid that is to change our opinions retroactively. We say, 'No, no, you just misunderstood, you thought I was saying X when I really said Y.' Or, even worse, sometimes we just stubbornly refuse to acknowledge the evidence in front of us."

--Jimmy4164

"Could you please define what you mean by a "HIT?" I suspect you're referring to BOX ticket bets."

The difference between you and me is I actually talk to many people that play the pick-3 and several of them use versions of TTT for the numbers they played. The average bet was $2 or $3 playing 2 or 3 combinations. The one thing that goes way way way over your head is when a TTT matches the 3 drawn digits, anybody can get a straight or box hit. If 3 of the TTT digits are matching the drawing 10 to 15 times a month, they have 10 to 15 times a month to get a hit.

They could box 4 of the digits every day and show a profit with just two hits.

You have this silly notion that people play the same way in every drawing for the history of the drawing. And it's just as silly to limit a TTT play to which numbers must be in each digit position for 33.5 years because nobody I know plays that way.

"How did you conclude that "A TTT using 7 digits has 343 possible three digit straight numbers..."?"

You have got to be kidding because everybody knows with 7 digits you can use each digit in each digit position. And I'm pretty sure even by using your stock market calculator, 7 times 7 times 7 still equals 343. You can't get any more possible combos without using some of the digits twice and doing that would only give you duplicate combos.

"How many ticket purchases per day do YOU estimate would be optimal in the design of a PROFITABLE Pick3 system?"

Another silly question! Bet it never occurred to you that to play every day you have buy at least one ticket and even 1 ticket a day can show a profit.

"The tests I ran"

Are useless information because nobody plays that way.

"None of us really likes to admit being wrong."

I never said your statistic were wrong, just that nobody cares because they would never play any of the methods for the history of any lottery using any of the methods you used to compile your useless statistics.

Michigan United States Member #22395 September 24, 2005 1583 Posts Offline

Posted: September 14, 2010, 10:30 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Stack47 on September 14, 2010

Six hits in twelve drawings is pretty good and shows anybody can show a profit using a TTT regardless what our resident skeptic believes.

I am not convinced that QP's are the best choice. I believe that there can exist a better strategy, system or methodology, that will outdo QP's. I am open to any detailed explanation with examples of how this or any TTT can be profitable. Questions get ignored or answered with off-the-cuff irrelevant responses. Short of torture, it appears that no one here will offer that information.

What is missing in this thread, is exactly which combinations you play. If I may take a guess, when I asked Knightsquad about his 19 hits in one month.

He said he was playing on paper. My guess is that he did not consistently choose the same combinations each time. He did show a list of 20 combinations - but said you narrow it down. For example, perhaps the win was from ABC one time. Next time the win was from GHI. Another win from EFI. I think he looked at the TTT and saw the winning combination - rather than mark down the same consistent combinations to play for the entire month before the drawings. You've got potentially 9 of the 10 digits in a TTT - so finding some winning combination after the fact could work 90% of the time.

As you pointed out there are a huge amount of possible combinations. 27 standard ones and I guess up to your figure of 343. To simply say that any numbers touching can be played is not an answer. I could pick touching numbers that may not have one single win all month.

If my guess is incorrect, I apologize Knightsquad.

When I went through this thread here is what I found: "From Jan to Aug for NY, 61 hits. 7.26 hits per month for what appears to be 10 numbers played per day."

Are the same 10 sets of numbers played throughout the entire 30 days? Are the 10 sets of numbers changed daily, weekly, after a hit, on a whim?

There is no mention if those 10 numbers are exclusive to the TTT or not - at one point twedk said she mixes in other numbers of her own. If a person can maintain that average of 7 hits per month, choosing numbers exclusively from the generated TTT, then yes it might be profitable. If. Depends if you hit boxed or straight also. I doubt there would be 7 straight hits per month though.

United States Member #93947 July 10, 2010 2180 Posts Offline

Posted: September 15, 2010, 4:46 am - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Stack47 on September 14, 2010

"Could you please define what you mean by a "HIT?" I suspect you're referring to BOX ticket bets."

The difference between you and me is I actually talk to many people that play the pick-3 and several of them use versions of TTT for the numbers they played. The average bet was $2 or $3 playing 2 or 3 combinations. The one thing that goes way way way over your head is when a TTT matches the 3 drawn digits, anybody can get a straight or box hit. If 3 of the TTT digits are matching the drawing 10 to 15 times a month, they have 10 to 15 times a month to get a hit.

They could box 4 of the digits every day and show a profit with just two hits.

You have this silly notion that people play the same way in every drawing for the history of the drawing. And it's just as silly to limit a TTT play to which numbers must be in each digit position for 33.5 years because nobody I know plays that way.

"How did you conclude that "A TTT using 7 digits has 343 possible three digit straight numbers..."?"

You have got to be kidding because everybody knows with 7 digits you can use each digit in each digit position. And I'm pretty sure even by using your stock market calculator, 7 times 7 times 7 still equals 343. You can't get any more possible combos without using some of the digits twice and doing that would only give you duplicate combos.

"How many ticket purchases per day do YOU estimate would be optimal in the design of a PROFITABLE Pick3 system?"

Another silly question! Bet it never occurred to you that to play every day you have buy at least one ticket and even 1 ticket a day can show a profit.

"The tests I ran"

Are useless information because nobody plays that way.

"None of us really likes to admit being wrong."

I never said your statistic were wrong, just that nobody cares because they would never play any of the methods for the history of any lottery using any of the methods you used to compile your useless statistics.

Stack47,

Dean Esmay would have to come up with a special category just for you. In addition to ignoring centuries of established mathematical theory and practise, now, when you can't answer a question, you refer to it as "SILLY" or "USELESS."

BTW, if TTTs specify preliminary betting sets by observing the rows, collumns, and diagonals of a 3 X 3 matrix, AND you tell us that a typical player is only betting on several of them, why would 7 cubed be of any interest here? (I'm sure you can devote several diversionary paragraphs to [not] answering this question.)

Check out the Maddog Challenges. I doubt it, but who knows, maybe that will wake you up. You will dismiss the work I just did there, I'm sure, by saying, "no one would buy 3,168 tickets every day."

Some day it might dawn on you that computer simulations and backtests do NOT have to mimic a typical bettor's behaviour to provide valuable insights into the nature of probability and gaming.

--Jimmy4164

p.s. You should be gratefull that the engineers who use calculus to design safe infrastructure for you did not balk at its use because it is based on concepts you would call "SILLY" such as Limits as certain quantities "Approach" zero.

Kentucky United States Member #32652 February 14, 2006 7575 Posts Online

Posted: September 15, 2010, 7:41 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by truecritic on September 14, 2010

I am not convinced that QP's are the best choice. I believe that there can exist a better strategy, system or methodology, that will outdo QP's. I am open to any detailed explanation with examples of how this or any TTT can be profitable. Questions get ignored or answered with off-the-cuff irrelevant responses. Short of torture, it appears that no one here will offer that information.

What is missing in this thread, is exactly which combinations you play. If I may take a guess, when I asked Knightsquad about his 19 hits in one month.

He said he was playing on paper. My guess is that he did not consistently choose the same combinations each time. He did show a list of 20 combinations - but said you narrow it down. For example, perhaps the win was from ABC one time. Next time the win was from GHI. Another win from EFI. I think he looked at the TTT and saw the winning combination - rather than mark down the same consistent combinations to play for the entire month before the drawings. You've got potentially 9 of the 10 digits in a TTT - so finding some winning combination after the fact could work 90% of the time.

As you pointed out there are a huge amount of possible combinations. 27 standard ones and I guess up to your figure of 343. To simply say that any numbers touching can be played is not an answer. I could pick touching numbers that may not have one single win all month.

If my guess is incorrect, I apologize Knightsquad.

When I went through this thread here is what I found: "From Jan to Aug for NY, 61 hits. 7.26 hits per month for what appears to be 10 numbers played per day."

Are the same 10 sets of numbers played throughout the entire 30 days? Are the 10 sets of numbers changed daily, weekly, after a hit, on a whim?

There is no mention if those 10 numbers are exclusive to the TTT or not - at one point twedk said she mixes in other numbers of her own. If a person can maintain that average of 7 hits per month, choosing numbers exclusively from the generated TTT, then yes it might be profitable. If. Depends if you hit boxed or straight also. I doubt there would be 7 straight hits per month though.

7 wins 3-way box (payout $80 per win) = $ 560.00

10 tickets * (30 midday + 30 evening) = $ 600.00

- $ 40.00

7 wins straight (payout $500 per win) = $3500.00

10 tickets * (30 midday + 30 evening) = $ 600.00

+ $2900.00

"As you pointed out there are a huge amount of possible combinations. 27 standard ones and I guess up to your figure of 343."

The figure 343 came from using an average of 7 digits from a TTT in all three digit positions. That would include using a digit that only shows once three times so the total number of possible straight combos is less. The best way to determine how many straight combs are in a TTT with 7 different digits would be to box all 9 digits using the duplicate digits twice. Break down the results to show each box combo once and multiple them by 3 or 6. I believe there are 35 6-way boxes and 12 3-boxes or 246 possible straights in a 7 digit TTT.

TTTs usually do show many hits during any month but the problem is finding a way to isolate which digits. If my figure of 246 is correct a TTT using all the possible straights would need 15 hits a month just to break even.

The TTT players I know mostly play for box hits hoping to cash in small wins. They can box 4 digits a drawing for $2 and only need two hits to show a profit playing one of the drawings or 4 hits playing both drawings.

"There is no mention if those 10 numbers are exclusive to the TTT or not - at one point twedk said she mixes in other numbers of her own."

That's exactly how the TTT players I know play too. We can't check on how any system would do over a period time when don't know what the system is or how they play it.

United States Member #93947 July 10, 2010 2180 Posts Offline

Posted: September 15, 2010, 8:05 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Stack47 on September 15, 2010

"As you pointed out there are a huge amount of possible combinations. 27 standard ones and I guess up to your figure of 343."

The figure 343 came from using an average of 7 digits from a TTT in all three digit positions. That would include using a digit that only shows once three times so the total number of possible straight combos is less. The best way to determine how many straight combs are in a TTT with 7 different digits would be to box all 9 digits using the duplicate digits twice. Break down the results to show each box combo once and multiple them by 3 or 6. I believe there are 35 6-way boxes and 12 3-boxes or 246 possible straights in a 7 digit TTT.

TTTs usually do show many hits during any month but the problem is finding a way to isolate which digits. If my figure of 246 is correct a TTT using all the possible straights would need 15 hits a month just to break even.

The TTT players I know mostly play for box hits hoping to cash in small wins. They can box 4 digits a drawing for $2 and only need two hits to show a profit playing one of the drawings or 4 hits playing both drawings.

"There is no mention if those 10 numbers are exclusive to the TTT or not - at one point twedk said she mixes in other numbers of her own."

That's exactly how the TTT players I know play too. We can't check on how any system would do over a period time when don't know what the system is or how they play it.

"That's exactly how the TTT players I know play too. We can't check on how any system would do over a period time when don't know what the system is or how they play it."

This is hilarious! Doesn't sound like much of a "System" the way you describe it. And it prompts the question of why twedk needs to do the "workout" for so many. Could it be the players aren't capable of performing the curious application of mod 10 addition? Actually, the way you put it, TTT belongs in the Mystical Forum. What you are really about here is no more than blowing smoke to cover the fact that Pick3s have an expected value of 50¢ on the $, and you know it. Your agenda will surface eventually. From TTT to 343 - give me a break!

Kentucky United States Member #32652 February 14, 2006 7575 Posts Online

Posted: September 15, 2010, 8:44 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by jimmy4164 on September 15, 2010

Stack47,

Dean Esmay would have to come up with a special category just for you. In addition to ignoring centuries of established mathematical theory and practise, now, when you can't answer a question, you refer to it as "SILLY" or "USELESS."

BTW, if TTTs specify preliminary betting sets by observing the rows, collumns, and diagonals of a 3 X 3 matrix, AND you tell us that a typical player is only betting on several of them, why would 7 cubed be of any interest here? (I'm sure you can devote several diversionary paragraphs to [not] answering this question.)

Check out the Maddog Challenges. I doubt it, but who knows, maybe that will wake you up. You will dismiss the work I just did there, I'm sure, by saying, "no one would buy 3,168 tickets every day."

Some day it might dawn on you that computer simulations and backtests do NOT have to mimic a typical bettor's behaviour to provide valuable insights into the nature of probability and gaming.

--Jimmy4164

p.s. You should be gratefull that the engineers who use calculus to design safe infrastructure for you did not balk at its use because it is based on concepts you would call "SILLY" such as Limits as certain quantities "Approach" zero.

"BTW, if TTTs specify preliminary betting sets by observing the rows, collumns, and diagonals of a 3 X 3 matrix, AND you tell us that a typical player is only betting on several of them, why would 7 cubed be of any interest here?"

The average player is betting on some of them and probably not over 4. If any 3 digits from the TTT are drawn, it's considered a hit and players use TTTs because they produce several hits a month. The only logical way to test the performance of a TTT would be find the percentage of times 3 digits from it match the drawings each month. A TTT using 7 digits with two duplicate digits has 35 6-way boxes and 12 3-way boxes. If that TTT averages 15 hits a month it's profitable if all the possible combos were played in every drawing. However even if that test showed a profit was possible, the results would be inconclusive because the average player only plays 3 - 4 of those combos.

"Some day it might dawn on you that computer simulations and backtests do NOT have to mimic a typical bettor's behaviour to provide valuable insights into the nature of probability and gaming. "

I'm 100% sure players playing 1 three digit number straight know that if they continue to play that number in every drawing for the next 33.5 years, they would have to average 2 hits every 1000 drawings just to break even. Knowing that, why would they need the raw data from you showing it's a losing proposition?

Some day it may dawn on you, over time simulations and back testing mirror probability so why not just save time and use probability.

Kentucky United States Member #32652 February 14, 2006 7575 Posts Online

Posted: September 15, 2010, 8:52 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by jimmy4164 on September 15, 2010

"That's exactly how the TTT players I know play too. We can't check on how any system would do over a period time when don't know what the system is or how they play it."

This is hilarious! Doesn't sound like much of a "System" the way you describe it. And it prompts the question of why twedk needs to do the "workout" for so many. Could it be the players aren't capable of performing the curious application of mod 10 addition? Actually, the way you put it, TTT belongs in the Mystical Forum. What you are really about here is no more than blowing smoke to cover the fact that Pick3s have an expected value of 50¢ on the $, and you know it. Your agenda will surface eventually. From TTT to 343 - give me a break!

"Doesn't sound like much of a "System" the way you describe it."

What's really hilarious is after all that useless information you posted, you are just now finding out there is no real system to test.