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Boney526

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Aug 25, 2011, 8:01 pm

Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on Aug 25, 2011
Thank you and feel free to repeat it whenever you're trying to explain the Gambler's Fallacy.

In spite of that, no one has ever convinced me that looking at previous drawings before picking a few lines to play in a future drawing disadvantaged me over picking the same amount of lines randomly using Quick Picks.

In fact, my avoidance of RB28 in my PB picks because it hadn't come up in such a long time has been an advantage so far even though I haven't won a lot.

LOL.

I suppose - but you can really only consider it an advantage after seeing the occurence not take place.

Oh and it certainly doesn't disadvantage you to pick your lines based on past results, but I'm sure you get that it doesn't give you an advantage.
RJOh

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Aug 25, 2011, 11:06 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Boney526 on Aug 25, 2011
LOL.

I suppose - but you can really only consider it an advantage after seeing the occurence not take place.

Oh and it certainly doesn't disadvantage you to pick your lines based on past results, but I'm sure you get that it doesn't give you an advantage.

.......you can really only consider it an advantage after seeing the occurence not take place.

Even if RB28 came up, not playing it would still have been an advantage when you consider the number of times some played it thinking it was over due and it never came up. The real advantage for me in playing PB and other lotteries like it is picking combinations I feel comfortable playing and not what ever comes up on the terminal. That's probably the reason I never buy raffle tickets.

* you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones *
jimmy4164

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Aug 26, 2011, 10:18 pm

Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on Aug 25, 2011
Thank you and feel free to repeat it whenever you're trying to explain the Gambler's Fallacy.

In spite of that, no one has ever convinced me that looking at previous drawings before picking a few lines to play in a future drawing disadvantaged me over picking the same amount of lines randomly using Quick Picks.

In fact, my avoidance of RB28 in my PB picks because it hadn't come up in such a long time has been an advantage so far even though I haven't won a lot.

RJOh,

"...no one has ever convinced me that looking at previous drawings before picking a few lines to play in a future drawing disadvantaged me..."

Did I ever try to convince you of that?

--Jimmy4164
RJOh

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Aug 27, 2011, 11:40 am

Quote: Originally posted by jimmy4164 on Aug 26, 2011
RJOh,

"...no one has ever convinced me that looking at previous drawings before picking a few lines to play in a future drawing disadvantaged me..."

Did I ever try to convince you of that?

--Jimmy4164

Did I ever try to convince you of that?

No but I think you're trying to convince someone of something when ever you mention that Gambler's Fallacy theory. According to lottery websites the percentages of wins for personal picks and quick picks are the same so the worst one might expect to do by picking combinations based on his knowledge of previous drawings is improve his chances.

* you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones *
Boney526

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Aug 27, 2011, 12:03 pm

Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on Aug 25, 2011
.......you can really only consider it an advantage after seeing the occurence not take place.

Even if RB28 came up, not playing it would still have been an advantage when you consider the number of times some played it thinking it was over due and it never came up. The real advantage for me in playing PB and other lotteries like it is picking combinations I feel comfortable playing and not what ever comes up on the terminal. That's probably the reason I never buy raffle tickets.

True. I play SPs more often than QPs, simply because I like to pick my own numbers, as well.

But it offers no advantage or disadvantage over any other powerball. So if someone was to play extra lines it would be to their disadvantage, just because every lottery ticket it bought at a disadvantage to the State.

It will allow you to structure your plays, using wheels - or not allowing PBs to repeat if you want, etc, but offers no real statistical advanatge, which is why I usually SP 1 or 2 lines, QP 1 or 2 lines. I'll pick some of my own, and let the state pick the others.

If I'm going to play 4+ I usually wheel like 8 numbers, so it's almost always SP if I do play more than 2/3 lines.
Boney526

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Aug 27, 2011, 12:05 pm

Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on Aug 27, 2011
Did I ever try to convince you of that?

No but I think you're trying to convince someone of something when ever you mention that Gambler's Fallacy theory. According to lottery websites the percentages of wins for personal picks and quick picks are the same so the worst one might expect to do by picking combinations based on his knowledge of previous drawings is improve his chances.

I think the main reason he and I will talk about gamblers fallacy, is because a lot of people feel as if past results actually do influence current outcomes, which can cause them to play more when there's a false basis for it, thinking that say, PB 28 is due - sticking that in with every White Ball combo they play or something.

However, if somebody sticks to their budget - then it's all the same whatever they do.
RJOh

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Aug 27, 2011, 3:03 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Boney526 on Aug 27, 2011
I think the main reason he and I will talk about gamblers fallacy, is because a lot of people feel as if past results actually do influence current outcomes, which can cause them to play more when there's a false basis for it, thinking that say, PB 28 is due - sticking that in with every White Ball combo they play or something.

However, if somebody sticks to their budget - then it's all the same whatever they do.

You assume incorrectly that everyone looking at the same histories will come to similar conclusions.

I look at the last 275 PB drawings without a RB28 and don't conclude RB28 is over due because I see that 80% of all RB had hit in their previous 81 drawings or less and conclude RB28 is unlikely to be in the next drawing.

I figure my chances for a win is as good as they'll ever be with 10-20 lines and I would play that many lines regardless of what happened in past drawings.

* you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones *
jimmy4164

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Aug 27, 2011, 5:28 pm

Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on Aug 27, 2011
Did I ever try to convince you of that?

No but I think you're trying to convince someone of something when ever you mention that Gambler's Fallacy theory. According to lottery websites the percentages of wins for personal picks and quick picks are the same so the worst one might expect to do by picking combinations based on his knowledge of previous drawings is improve his chances.

Thank you. You remembered that I've always maintained that self picks will have NO detrimental effect on your winnings. But you seem to have forgotten or rejected my companion assertion that they will also have no positive effect.

When you said, "...the worst one might expect to do by picking combinations based on his knowledge of previous drawings is improve his chances..." you disappointed me again.
Boney526

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Aug 27, 2011, 5:33 pm

Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on Aug 27, 2011
You assume incorrectly that everyone looking at the same histories will come to similar conclusions.

I look at the last 275 PB drawings without a RB28 and don't conclude RB28 is over due because I see that 80% of all RB had hit in their previous 81 drawings or less and conclude RB28 is unlikely to be in the next drawing.

I figure my chances for a win is as good as they'll ever be with 10-20 lines and I would play that many lines regardless of what happened in past drawings.

No, I meant that was one possibility, and I'm almost certain somebody has way overplayed the PB 28. I'm not assuming that everybody will come to those conclusions, I'm saying any conclusion you come up with will only be accurate as often as the odds dictate, or close to it.

What me and Jimmy are trying to say - is that whatever you conclude based on pass draws gives you neither an advantage nor a disadvantage.

Merriam-Webster: A logical operator t
RJOh

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Aug 28, 2011, 9:37 am

Quote: Originally posted by Boney526 on Aug 27, 2011
No, I meant that was one possibility, and I'm almost certain somebody has way overplayed the PB 28. I'm not assuming that everybody will come to those conclusions, I'm saying any conclusion you come up with will only be accurate as often as the odds dictate, or close to it.

What me and Jimmy are trying to say - is that whatever you conclude based on pass draws gives you neither an advantage nor a disadvantage.

Merriam-Webster: A logical operator t

What me and Jimmy are trying to say - is that whatever you conclude based on pass draws gives you neither an advantage nor a disadvantage.

Sounds like something a quick pick player would say and that fine for you if that's what you believe but that's not for me, I enjoy strategizing and picking combinations to play.

* you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones *
THRIFTY

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Aug 29, 2011, 6:18 pm

Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on Aug 28, 2011
What me and Jimmy are trying to say - is that whatever you conclude based on pass draws gives you neither an advantage nor a disadvantage.

Sounds like something a quick pick player would say and that fine for you if that's what you believe but that's not for me, I enjoy strategizing and picking combinations to play.

2) PLAY LESS OFTEN FOR MORE LINES. Lottery stop loss limit= 5 LINES QUICK PICK monthly on mega millions or powerball. https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/234945/2160879
NYSlugger 777

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Sep 1, 2011, 10:04 am

Another close call for RB 28. 29 hit instead.

August 31st Powerball Results

13, 19, 35, 47, 57 PB : 29
NYSlugger 777

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Sep 1, 2011, 10:09 am

I'm going to mix these up in 5 games for Saturday September 3rd. All of them with PB 28.

September 3rd Powerball Predictions

WB: 05, 06, 07, 11, 12, 13, 14, 21, 22, 23, 35, 36, 44, 45, 57, 58, 59.

PB: 28
LottoL

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Sep 2, 2011, 4:43 am

Quote: Originally posted by NYSlugger 777 on Sep 1, 2011
I'm going to mix these up in 5 games for Saturday September 3rd. All of them with PB 28.

September 3rd Powerball Predictions

WB: 05, 06, 07, 11, 12, 13, 14, 21, 22, 23, 35, 36, 44, 45, 57, 58, 59.

PB: 28

Interesting Picks. Going with three repeats I see. (13 - 35 - 57)

2 drawings since last repeat (47), before that (28).

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FYI, other drawings this year where there were no jackpot winner after seven draws:
07/23/2011 - $092 million -> 01 - 07 - 27 - 38 - 48 PB=30
05/18/2011 - $097 million -> 07 - 12 - 13 - 42 - 49 PB=16
03/23/2011 - $101 million -> 05 - 15 - 26 - 28 - 32 PB=09
02/16/2011 - $101 million -> 09 - 13 - 21 - 23 - 48 PB=24

Note that there are no numbers in the fifties.
Last time I mentioned this, three numbers in the fifties came up.

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I still think there is a good chance of 28 hitting together as a WB and a PB.

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Best Of Luck!
RJOh

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Sep 2, 2011, 12:17 pm

Quote: Originally posted by jimmy4164 on Aug 27, 2011
Thank you. You remembered that I've always maintained that self picks will have NO detrimental effect on your winnings. But you seem to have forgotten or rejected my companion assertion that they will also have no positive effect.

When you said, "...the worst one might expect to do by picking combinations based on his knowledge of previous drawings is improve his chances..." you disappointed me again.

When you said, "...the worst one might expect to do by picking combinations based on his knowledge of previous drawings is improve his chances..." you disappointed me again.

What would be the point of picking your own combinations if you didn't believe doing so improved your chances?

* you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones *

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