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Which odds are better?

Topic closed. 95 replies. Last post 5 years ago by Ronnie316.

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Posted: April 15, 2012, 2:07 pm - IP Logged

I want to spend around $500. on a single Mega drew. Should I use 500 different sets of numbers with a single favorite Mega number, or use 10 sets of numbers and all 46 mega numbers with each?

    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
    mid-Ohio
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    Posted: April 15, 2012, 2:25 pm - IP Logged

    There's no reason you can't pick 500 lines several ways several times to check which one is the most successful before playing for real.  There's nothing like several simulations to get an idea of what is most likely to happen.

     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
       
                 Evil Looking       


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      Posted: April 15, 2012, 3:19 pm - IP Logged

       Example: The odds of getting 4 out of 5 white balls on one draw (one set) is 15,313 to 1. Play 500 sets and the odds improve to around 30 to 1 and the payout (without the mega ball) is $150. Playing 10 sets (instead of 500) decreases the odds to around 1500 to 1 BUT the Mega ball is guaranteed on all 10 of the sets if all 46 mega numbers are played on each set, and the payout is 10k (with the Mega ball).

      Im not sure if there's a correct answer, but without the mega ball its impossible to win the jackpot so I'm leaning toward the second option as it assures me of 10 chances (out of 3,904,701) of winning the jackpot. Whereas, the first option adds a 46 to 1 element on top of having 500 chances (out of the same 3,904,701) 

      So which is better, 10 chances or 500 chances at 46 to 1 odds?

        Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
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        Posted: April 15, 2012, 3:40 pm - IP Logged

        I want to spend around $500. on a single Mega drew. Should I use 500 different sets of numbers with a single favorite Mega number, or use 10 sets of numbers and all 46 mega numbers with each?

        To be very, very honest and forthecoming, and, respect to your own finances, that's a a lotta money to drop on one draw. Also, it won't increase your odds percentages by very much at all, Ronnie. Hey, you're grown and it's your money so do as you please, buddy. If it were me, though, I'd just get a very good set of numbers together and apply them to $20 worth of tickets and spread that money out over the course of many draws. I think you'd feel much better knowing that you have that kind of bankroll to play so many times, and, with chances comes opportunity to win.

        If you drop the $500 and don't really get anything, you'll probably end up waiting a while before you play again and that's no fun, right? Then, what happens if you don't play and go back to find that one of those tickets ends up being a winner? This could be the very ticket hiding within that $20 worth of tickets to play each time. Just some reasonable food for thought, okay. It's not how much you spend, but, rather how well you spend what you have.


        L.L.


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          Posted: April 15, 2012, 4:09 pm - IP Logged

          We are talking about where the better odds are, not how much doodle is being dribbled. Here is another example: (we are talking about the Mega Millions game) Lets say I wanted to assure myself of getting at least 4 out od 5 white balls and played all 15,313 possible sets. If I used the same mega number on all 15,313 tickets and missed it my payout would be $150 on the one 4 out of 5 ticket (no mega) My cost would be $15,313. doodles.

          However, 3 out of 5 white balls WITH the mega pays the same $150. and there are only 306 possible sets. So if I buy all 306 sets with each of the 46 mega ball numbers (306 x $46.) my cost for the same result would be $14,076.doodles. HOWEVER I would have purchased 306 tickets wuth a maga number guarenteed at least $2 each. Reducing my cost to $13,464.

            Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
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            Posted: April 15, 2012, 6:22 pm - IP Logged

            We are talking about where the better odds are, not how much doodle is being dribbled. Here is another example: (we are talking about the Mega Millions game) Lets say I wanted to assure myself of getting at least 4 out od 5 white balls and played all 15,313 possible sets. If I used the same mega number on all 15,313 tickets and missed it my payout would be $150 on the one 4 out of 5 ticket (no mega) My cost would be $15,313. doodles.

            However, 3 out of 5 white balls WITH the mega pays the same $150. and there are only 306 possible sets. So if I buy all 306 sets with each of the 46 mega ball numbers (306 x $46.) my cost for the same result would be $14,076.doodles. HOWEVER I would have purchased 306 tickets wuth a maga number guarenteed at least $2 each. Reducing my cost to $13,464.

            Okay...sorry for trying to be of assistance. Good luck.


            L.L.

              savagegoose's avatar - ProfilePho
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              Posted: April 15, 2012, 6:42 pm - IP Logged

              yeah 500 is a year of playing$10 a week.

              2014 = -1016; 2015= -1409; 2016 JAN = -106; FEB= -81; MAR= -131; APR= - 87: MAY= -91; JUN= -39; JUL=-134; AUG= -124; SEP = -123; OCT= -84  NOV=- 73 TOT= -3498

              keno historic = -2291 ; 2015= -603; 2016= JAN=-32, FEB= +12 , MAR= -86, APR = -77. MAY= -48, JUN= -29, JUL=-71; AUG = -52; SEPT= -43; OCT = +56 NOV = -33 TOT= -3297

                Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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                Posted: April 15, 2012, 7:09 pm - IP Logged

                The odds aren't better or worse, in fact, the odds of winning the Jackpot are the same, you're just changing the overall variance.

                 

                If you play all mega balls, you are gauranteed some back, but not a lot.  You can still win a lot, if you're really lucky on a set of numbers or two.

                 

                If you play just one you aren't gauranteed anyything back, but if your mega ball is right, you'll be much more likely to something much more substancial.

                 

                I'd go with picking a few mega balls, and doing whatever you want with the rest.  But if it was between your two options, and I didn't mind sustaining a $500 dollar loss for the project, then I'd go with picking all the same mega ball.  You seem like you don't mind the risk, and even picking all different balls, you're not likely to get more than 20-200 back, so I'd say go big.  Pick either one, or a few mega balls.


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                  Posted: April 15, 2012, 9:34 pm - IP Logged

                  The thing is, I use the same mega number all the time and can only expect it to come in a couple of times a year. When my regular numbers do come in what a waste it is without the mega. Im reaching the point where I need to play all the mega numbers with my regular numbers or not play at all. At this point I would rather play one set of numbers 46 times and have an actual chance of winning something worthwhile than being stuck with 46 to 1 odds no matter how good my numbers are. We are talking $150. for 4 out of 5 without Mr. Mega as apposed to 10k with him. One win like that would pay for 217 rounds of 46 tickets. (over 2 years worth)

                  Can I play $46. 8 times a month at a cost of $368. per month?

                  I can if I like my odds. 

                  This concept will increase my odds of winning the jackpot to around 3 million to 1. Playing 104 draws a year I can expect to win the big jackpot in less than 29,000 years.

                    maximumfun's avatar - Lottery-030.jpg
                    Lavender Rocket

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                    Posted: April 15, 2012, 9:49 pm - IP Logged

                    yeah 500 is a year of playing$10 a week.

                    hmm... I play ((2pb+2mm+2pb+2mm)*52) = 416$ per year.  pricey enough for me. 

                    Family is trying to get me to increase 1pb and 1mm per draw... that would add (3*2*52) = 312 per year.  That would be a sizeable increase (for me)

                    Since I am having a tough time buying into 14$/wk vs 8$/wk... the idea of dropping 500 duckets on one draw is beyond me.

                    HOWEVER:  good luck to you Ronnie!  I wish you well and much success! (I would change up the PB's myself - for what it's worth)


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                      Posted: April 15, 2012, 9:52 pm - IP Logged

                      Also, I can see how the odds would be the same regardless if I play 46 different sets or if I play 1 set and 46 differents magas. It does seem that the overall payout may be better with the 46 maga balls each draw.

                      I am wondering why the back of my card says the odds of getting 1 mega and zero white balls is 75 to 1 considering there is only 46 mega balls?


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                        Posted: April 15, 2012, 9:53 pm - IP Logged

                        The thing is, I use the same mega number all the time and can only expect it to come in a couple of times a year. When my regular numbers do come in what a waste it is without the mega. Im reaching the point where I need to play all the mega numbers with my regular numbers or not play at all. At this point I would rather play one set of numbers 46 times and have an actual chance of winning something worthwhile than being stuck with 46 to 1 odds no matter how good my numbers are. We are talking $150. for 4 out of 5 without Mr. Mega as apposed to 10k with him. One win like that would pay for 217 rounds of 46 tickets. (over 2 years worth)

                        Can I play $46. 8 times a month at a cost of $368. per month?

                        I can if I like my odds. 

                        This concept will increase my odds of winning the jackpot to around 3 million to 1. Playing 104 draws a year I can expect to win the big jackpot in less than 29,000 years.

                        Patience is a virtue. If you can afford to wait 29,000 years, go for it!  Cheers


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                          Posted: April 15, 2012, 10:05 pm - IP Logged

                          If I scrap the $500. project and spend $368. per month instead, Im hoping to get some support here.

                          Lots of people spend $300. per month on cigarettes and there is virtualy zero chance of a positive return.

                            mediabrat's avatar - 18z0typ
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                            Posted: April 16, 2012, 1:20 am - IP Logged

                            Also, I can see how the odds would be the same regardless if I play 46 different sets or if I play 1 set and 46 differents magas. It does seem that the overall payout may be better with the 46 maga balls each draw.

                            I am wondering why the back of my card says the odds of getting 1 mega and zero white balls is 75 to 1 considering there is only 46 mega balls?

                            "Also, I can see how the odds would be the same regardless if I play 46 different sets or if I play 1 set and 46 differents magas. It does seem that the overall payout may be better with the 46 maga balls each draw."

                            Right.  If you're playing the same number of lines regardless of the method used, then technically your odds are the same.  If you cover all of the Mega balls you're guaranteed to get at least some money back.  If you only play 1 Mega Ball 500 times, there's no guarantee you'll get anything for your Mega ball (but if you do hit the MB you'll win at least $1,000) and there's not even any guarantee you'll get anything with your 500 combinations of white balls.

                            "I am wondering why the back of my card says the odds of getting 1 mega and zero white balls is 75 to 1 considering there is only 46 mega balls?"

                            Because it's a two-part bet.  Part one is getting one of 46 Mega Balls.  Obviously those odds are one in 46.  Part two is NOT getting ANY of the 56 white balls.  This is slightly more complicated.  There are 2,349,060 ways the 5 losing initial numbers on your ticket can match any of the LOSING 51 white balls, and there are 3,819,816 five-number combinations that can be made from the entire field of 56 white balls.  To get your overall odds, you multiply the two parts of the bet together:

                            2,349,060     1       2,349,060                                                            1
                            ------------- x --- = ---------------- , which is approximately equal to --------
                            3,819,816    46    175,711,536                                                      74.80

                            The Mega Millions people rounded 1 in 74.80 to 1 in 75 for the purpose of simplicity.

                            Patriot

                              mediabrat's avatar - 18z0typ
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                              Posted: April 16, 2012, 1:32 am - IP Logged

                              If I scrap the $500. project and spend $368. per month instead, Im hoping to get some support here.

                              Lots of people spend $300. per month on cigarettes and there is virtualy zero chance of a positive return.

                              Forget the money.  If you're comfortable spending $500 on this and you can afford it, go for it.  It's your money.  I think the majority of responders are concerned because most of us don't have the ability to drop $500 on a single drawing.  We just don't want to see you get yourself into financial trouble over this.  And to be honest, $46 per drawing will still seem like a lot to many of us, so I don't know how much support you'll gain.  But again, if you can afford it, don't let us stop you.

                              RJOh had a good idea.  Try your ideas out on paper first.  Track a few drawings or even use recent results to test your theories.  Once you've settled on a course of action, put it into action.

                              Patriot