Welcome Guest
Log In | Register )
You last visited December 6, 2016, 7:06 am
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

Which odds are better?

Topic closed. 95 replies. Last post 5 years ago by Ronnie316.

Page 7 of 7
52
PrintE-mailLink

United States
Member #116268
September 7, 2011
20244 Posts
Offline
Posted: April 27, 2012, 4:27 pm - IP Logged

It is my contention that even though the machine is random at picking balls, the event is not completely random because the balls are numbered. I know that should not matter but the fact remains, part of the event is a numbered and ordered set of balls. Even a slot machine which has a RNG chip tends to run hot and cold. How is that possible?

    Avatar
    NY
    United States
    Member #23835
    October 16, 2005
    3474 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: April 27, 2012, 9:44 pm - IP Logged

    It is my contention that even though the machine is random at picking balls, the event is not completely random because the balls are numbered. I know that should not matter but the fact remains, part of the event is a numbered and ordered set of balls. Even a slot machine which has a RNG chip tends to run hot and cold. How is that possible?

    If you flip a coin do you expect a perfectly regular alteration of heads and tails or do you only expect that after many flips it will be fairly close to 50% of each?

      Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
      New Jersey
      United States
      Member #99032
      October 18, 2010
      1439 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: April 28, 2012, 3:09 pm - IP Logged

      It's possible because if the events are random, they should usually differ from the average expected result in the short term.

       

      Only in the long term can you be reasonably confident the results will be very close to matching the average, and the amount of events that constitute "the long term" change depending on what the event is, and how confident you want to be in the results.

       

      Like KY Floyd said, do you expect a coin flip to alternate every time, or just be reasonably close to 50/50 after a whole lot of flips?  If coin flips alternated like that, or random events were predictable, then the casinos would go bankrupt, and the lottery wouldn't win.

      But they are random events, and nobodies sucking them dry by "predicting" which balls are more likely to show.

        Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
        New Jersey
        United States
        Member #99032
        October 18, 2010
        1439 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: April 28, 2012, 3:11 pm - IP Logged

        What is it about the fact that the balls have numbers on them that makes you think that it would somehow be less random as a result?

         

        If there were letters instead, would that change the probablities?  Or shapes?  Or playing cards?

         

        See, if the sums were relevant, then wouldn't those same characteristics appear with letters?  They can't, because you can't add letters.  But the probabilities wouldn't change if the number of balls are the same.


          United States
          Member #116268
          September 7, 2011
          20244 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: April 28, 2012, 4:45 pm - IP Logged

          What is it about the fact that the balls have numbers on them that makes you think that it would somehow be less random as a result?

           

          If there were letters instead, would that change the probablities?  Or shapes?  Or playing cards?

           

          See, if the sums were relevant, then wouldn't those same characteristics appear with letters?  They can't, because you can't add letters.  But the probabilities wouldn't change if the number of balls are the same.

          Before the laws of aerodynamics were discovered I'm sure very few people on the whole entire planet believed a pile of steal and iron could fly through the air. If the balls were unmarked then I would say yes, it is entirely random event and impossible to have a predetermined outcome, but because the balls are numbered, lettered, or whatever, they are identifiable one from another and it can be predicted what the outcome will be. And if it can be predicted, it was predetermined, and if it was predetermined there are (some how, some way) laws that determine the outcome of each draw. Just because we cant tell the future does not mean it cant be done. It just means we don't (yet) know how to do it. When I figure it out I will win 2 in a row just to prove I can do it, and then let everyone think it was crazy luck so they don't arrest me or take away the winnings.


            United States
            Member #116268
            September 7, 2011
            20244 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: May 10, 2012, 7:23 pm - IP Logged

            If you flip a coin do you expect a perfectly regular alteration of heads and tails or do you only expect that after many flips it will be fairly close to 50% of each?

            I have decided that my odds are 35 times better on a $500,000. jackpot with a $20. scratcher ticket, so I will be spending the $500. (or more) on that instead of the MM long shot.

            In the mean time I will still play 10 lines per draw on MM in defiance of Thriftys "system" of only spending $1. per draw total. My cost will be around $100. a month but its cheaper than a smoking habit and healthier.