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Do You Think That 1 Quick Pick Ticket Is Random Enough To Win A Mega Millions Or Powerball Jackpot?

Topic closed. 39 replies. Last post 5 years ago by Ronnie316.

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IS 1 MEGA MILLIONS OR POWERBALL QUICK PICK TICKET TRULY RANDOM?

Yes [ 23 ]  [76.67%]
No [ 7 ]  [23.33%]
Total Valid Votes [ 30 ]  
Discarded Votes [ 1 ]  
RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
mid-Ohio
United States
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March 24, 2001
19824 Posts
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Posted: May 23, 2012, 11:07 pm - IP Logged

But the theory doesn't explain why there were no winners when 191 million tickets were sold the drawing before the record was set unless about 20 million tickets were self picks and they didn't sell every combo.

Lotteries don't guarantee that there'll be no duplications of combinations until after every combinations has been printed.  If their terminals are like most RNG and even their drawings, after about 2% of the combinations have been printed or drawn, duplications start happening.  I would be surprised if they would print all 175 millions possible combinations before over 200M lines had been printed.

 * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
   
             Evil Looking       

    Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
    Texas
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    January 30, 2010
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    Posted: May 23, 2012, 11:26 pm - IP Logged

    But the theory doesn't explain why there were no winners when 191 million tickets were sold the drawing before the record was set unless about 20 million tickets were self picks and they didn't sell every combo.

    Well, we're talkin' about over several billion combinations in total first of all. Then, while it may SEEM that tons of numbers were sold, 191 million isn't a terrible dent when compared to the total amount of possibilities. One number changes everything when considering a single line also. How many people matched 3 and 4 numbers? How many got the power ball only?

    I'm certain that lots of tickets got all or most of the winning numbers scattered on various lines...not very hard to do at all. 4 +1 on a single line is where it's at, though...in terms of difficulty. May he rest in peace but, my dad's friend matched five out of six on our 6/54 about fifteen years ago on QP's...and never got even remotely close again after that.

    I'd never want to get that close...EVER. All or nothing for me. Hey, wait a minute, that's the name of the new game coming this Fall! Must be my time to shine.

    L.L.

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      Bronx, NY
      United States
      Member #124198
      March 8, 2012
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      Posted: May 24, 2012, 12:33 am - IP Logged

      Well, we're talkin' about over several billion combinations in total first of all. Then, while it may SEEM that tons of numbers were sold, 191 million isn't a terrible dent when compared to the total amount of possibilities. One number changes everything when considering a single line also. How many people matched 3 and 4 numbers? How many got the power ball only?

      I'm certain that lots of tickets got all or most of the winning numbers scattered on various lines...not very hard to do at all. 4 +1 on a single line is where it's at, though...in terms of difficulty. May he rest in peace but, my dad's friend matched five out of six on our 6/54 about fifteen years ago on QP's...and never got even remotely close again after that.

      I'd never want to get that close...EVER. All or nothing for me. Hey, wait a minute, that's the name of the new game coming this Fall! Must be my time to shine.

      L.L.

      How can there be several "billion" combinations if the chances of winning are 1 in 175,000,000.  Isn't the total number of combinations 175,000,000?

       

      As for the original topic.  Yes I believe one ticket is enough to win.  Many people have won with just one ticket, but that doesn't stop me from buying more per draw.  I don't know why....maybe its just a sickness.

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        Kentucky
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        February 14, 2006
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        Posted: May 24, 2012, 11:44 am - IP Logged

        Lotteries don't guarantee that there'll be no duplications of combinations until after every combinations has been printed.  If their terminals are like most RNG and even their drawings, after about 2% of the combinations have been printed or drawn, duplications start happening.  I would be surprised if they would print all 175 millions possible combinations before over 200M lines had been printed.

        The only guarantee the lotteries make about one QP is, the player will get five random numbers between 1 to 56 and one random bonus number between 1 to 46. QPs generated from unsold combos doesn't change that guarantee or prevent the live ball drawing from having one of those combos.

        They called it a "glitch" when a player bought multiple ten combo QPs and two of the tickets had the same ten combos. They even showed the odds against that randomly happening. Because they called it a glitch, it must mean the QP RNG is programed to randomly select from combos not already sold.

        "I would be surprised if they would print all 175 millions possible combinations before over 200M lines had been printed."

        The "odds chart" is even based on the QP probabilities. They show odds against matching the bonus number as 1 in 75 tickets, but we can use all 46 bonus numbers on 46 tickets by using self picks. Basically the odd chart is saying the probability of matching the five numbers is 1 in 3,904,701 multiplied by the 1 in 75 for the bonus number, they have to sell about 293 million QPs before they can expect one jackpot winner. Which is 118 million more combos the total 175 million in the 5/56 plus 1/46 matrix.

        All the state lotteries have aggregate payoffs if the amount of the secondary prizes exceeds a certain number. Probably because of the fortune cookie self picks or several players picking and hitting the same 5 number combos multiple times. When the MM jackpots are low, many states don't sell enough tickets to cover paying off even one $250,000 winning ticket. Since they know the majority of tickets sold will be QPs, they can program the QP RNG not to repeat combos.

        If a state really wanted to cheat, they could use a RNG for a game drawing and program it to pick from the unsold QP RNG tickets or better yet from all the unsold combos too; self picks included. Every now and then, they could program their game RNG to produce a nice payoff and even determine the amount of the payoff before the drawing; just to make it look legit.

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          Kentucky
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          February 14, 2006
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          Posted: May 24, 2012, 11:54 am - IP Logged

          Well, we're talkin' about over several billion combinations in total first of all. Then, while it may SEEM that tons of numbers were sold, 191 million isn't a terrible dent when compared to the total amount of possibilities. One number changes everything when considering a single line also. How many people matched 3 and 4 numbers? How many got the power ball only?

          I'm certain that lots of tickets got all or most of the winning numbers scattered on various lines...not very hard to do at all. 4 +1 on a single line is where it's at, though...in terms of difficulty. May he rest in peace but, my dad's friend matched five out of six on our 6/54 about fifteen years ago on QP's...and never got even remotely close again after that.

          I'd never want to get that close...EVER. All or nothing for me. Hey, wait a minute, that's the name of the new game coming this Fall! Must be my time to shine.

          L.L.

          I Agree!

          I hit 5 out of 6 twice, once using self picks and won what turned out to be one of the lowest payoffs in the history of that lotto game. Had to wait six weeks for the check and paid taxes on it the following year. The second time it was a QP playing in a pool. My share of that $1500 prize was 50 bucks.

            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
            mid-Ohio
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            Posted: May 24, 2012, 1:03 pm - IP Logged

            The only guarantee the lotteries make about one QP is, the player will get five random numbers between 1 to 56 and one random bonus number between 1 to 46. QPs generated from unsold combos doesn't change that guarantee or prevent the live ball drawing from having one of those combos.

            They called it a "glitch" when a player bought multiple ten combo QPs and two of the tickets had the same ten combos. They even showed the odds against that randomly happening. Because they called it a glitch, it must mean the QP RNG is programed to randomly select from combos not already sold.

            "I would be surprised if they would print all 175 millions possible combinations before over 200M lines had been printed."

            The "odds chart" is even based on the QP probabilities. They show odds against matching the bonus number as 1 in 75 tickets, but we can use all 46 bonus numbers on 46 tickets by using self picks. Basically the odd chart is saying the probability of matching the five numbers is 1 in 3,904,701 multiplied by the 1 in 75 for the bonus number, they have to sell about 293 million QPs before they can expect one jackpot winner. Which is 118 million more combos the total 175 million in the 5/56 plus 1/46 matrix.

            All the state lotteries have aggregate payoffs if the amount of the secondary prizes exceeds a certain number. Probably because of the fortune cookie self picks or several players picking and hitting the same 5 number combos multiple times. When the MM jackpots are low, many states don't sell enough tickets to cover paying off even one $250,000 winning ticket. Since they know the majority of tickets sold will be QPs, they can program the QP RNG not to repeat combos.

            If a state really wanted to cheat, they could use a RNG for a game drawing and program it to pick from the unsold QP RNG tickets or better yet from all the unsold combos too; self picks included. Every now and then, they could program their game RNG to produce a nice payoff and even determine the amount of the payoff before the drawing; just to make it look legit.

            They called it a "glitch" when a player bought multiple ten combo QPs and two of the tickets had the same ten combos. They even showed the odds against that randomly happening. Because they called it a glitch, it must mean the QP RNG is programed to randomly select from combos not already sold.

            You obviously didn't get that explanation from any official lottery source.  You took the explanation of the "glitch" and made some conclusions of your own. 

            A RNG is a mathematical formula that produces different outcomes thousands of times before it recycles through them again.  The "glitch" was repeating the same outcomes so close to each others at the same terminal.  Nationwide, multi-state games probably have many duplicates every day, they just aren't sold at the same terminals at the same time.

             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
               
                         Evil Looking       


              United States
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              September 7, 2011
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              Posted: May 24, 2012, 1:04 pm - IP Logged

              I Agree!

              I hit 5 out of 6 twice, once using self picks and won what turned out to be one of the lowest payoffs in the history of that lotto game. Had to wait six weeks for the check and paid taxes on it the following year. The second time it was a QP playing in a pool. My share of that $1500 prize was 50 bucks.

              I do think 1 is enough BUT I think 20 on one draw is BETTER. QP gives the lotteries a very distinct and unfair advantage over the general public for the simple fact that people almost NEVER repeat the lines.

              When people change there picks every draw (using QP or otherwise) They in essence create a "moving target" for the winning numbers to hit.

              Secondly, buying 46 random lines does NOT create a true 1 in 3.9 million chance, it only creates 46 independent 1 in 175 million chances. (like a slot where each pull is independent of the next)

              However, if people takes the time and energy (they wont) to play the same lines every time the odds of hitting increase with each passing draw. ( the one in 1000 blog will never hit because of the RNG used) And, if a person plays the same (5 ball) line with all 46 bonus balls a TRUE 1 in 3.9 million chance has been created for that one 5 ball combination of numbers.

                RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                mid-Ohio
                United States
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                Posted: May 24, 2012, 2:35 pm - IP Logged

                I Agree!

                I hit 5 out of 6 twice, once using self picks and won what turned out to be one of the lowest payoffs in the history of that lotto game. Had to wait six weeks for the check and paid taxes on it the following year. The second time it was a QP playing in a pool. My share of that $1500 prize was 50 bucks.

                In Ohio with any match that pays less than $5000, you have the option of going to any designated bank on a business day with your ticket verified by a retailer and picking up your money.

                 * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                   
                             Evil Looking       

                  RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

                  United States
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                  Posted: May 24, 2012, 3:51 pm - IP Logged

                   "...you have the advantage of picking several combinations and a memory of what has happened in the past."

                  Not me.

                  I have a terrible memory.

                  And don't say, well, write everything down then, cuz I'll forget where I wrote it down at.

                  I can't remember where my pen is anyway.

                  rdgrnr

                  I have the same problem, at least I think I do, can't remember. 

                  RL

                  Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                  I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                  they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                  USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                    US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

                    mediabrat's avatar - 18z0typ
                    upstate NY
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                    Member #108791
                    March 31, 2011
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                    Posted: May 24, 2012, 4:29 pm - IP Logged

                    I do think 1 is enough BUT I think 20 on one draw is BETTER. QP gives the lotteries a very distinct and unfair advantage over the general public for the simple fact that people almost NEVER repeat the lines.

                    When people change there picks every draw (using QP or otherwise) They in essence create a "moving target" for the winning numbers to hit.

                    Secondly, buying 46 random lines does NOT create a true 1 in 3.9 million chance, it only creates 46 independent 1 in 175 million chances. (like a slot where each pull is independent of the next)

                    However, if people takes the time and energy (they wont) to play the same lines every time the odds of hitting increase with each passing draw. ( the one in 1000 blog will never hit because of the RNG used) And, if a person plays the same (5 ball) line with all 46 bonus balls a TRUE 1 in 3.9 million chance has been created for that one 5 ball combination of numbers.

                    "However, if people takes the time and energy (they wont) to play the same lines every time the odds of hitting increase with each passing draw. ( the one in 1000 blog will never hit because of the RNG used)"

                    That was never the point of the blog.  I suppose the name was misleading, and that's my fault, but I was trying to see what you could get in lower-tier prizes when you played that many lines.

                    I very well could have generated one set and used those for all drawings rather than making a fresh set each time, but again, that's not what I was testing.

                    And I've abandoned the blog.  It seemed like a good idea at the time, but I got bored with it and didn't feel like keeping it up.


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                      Posted: May 24, 2012, 4:51 pm - IP Logged

                      "However, if people takes the time and energy (they wont) to play the same lines every time the odds of hitting increase with each passing draw. ( the one in 1000 blog will never hit because of the RNG used)"

                      That was never the point of the blog.  I suppose the name was misleading, and that's my fault, but I was trying to see what you could get in lower-tier prizes when you played that many lines.

                      I very well could have generated one set and used those for all drawings rather than making a fresh set each time, but again, that's not what I was testing.

                      And I've abandoned the blog.  It seemed like a good idea at the time, but I got bored with it and didn't feel like keeping it up.

                      Too bad, I thought it was the most innovative and interesting thing on all of LP.

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                        Kentucky
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                        Posted: May 24, 2012, 5:24 pm - IP Logged

                        They called it a "glitch" when a player bought multiple ten combo QPs and two of the tickets had the same ten combos. They even showed the odds against that randomly happening. Because they called it a glitch, it must mean the QP RNG is programed to randomly select from combos not already sold.

                        You obviously didn't get that explanation from any official lottery source.  You took the explanation of the "glitch" and made some conclusions of your own. 

                        A RNG is a mathematical formula that produces different outcomes thousands of times before it recycles through them again.  The "glitch" was repeating the same outcomes so close to each others at the same terminal.  Nationwide, multi-state games probably have many duplicates every day, they just aren't sold at the same terminals at the same time.

                        "Nationwide, multi-state games probably have many duplicates every day, they just aren't sold at the same terminals at the same time."

                        If it can happen nationwide but can't on one terminal, they are programing the QPs RNG to do something different than they have defined as random using live ball drawings. Any five number combo plus any bonus number can be drawn, but apparently any five combo plus any bonus number until the program recycles

                        If there are as many duplicates as you say, why was there only 3 winning tickets when 652 million tickets were sold?

                          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                          mid-Ohio
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                          Posted: May 24, 2012, 6:13 pm - IP Logged

                          "Nationwide, multi-state games probably have many duplicates every day, they just aren't sold at the same terminals at the same time."

                          If it can happen nationwide but can't on one terminal, they are programing the QPs RNG to do something different than they have defined as random using live ball drawings. Any five number combo plus any bonus number can be drawn, but apparently any five combo plus any bonus number until the program recycles

                          If there are as many duplicates as you say, why was there only 3 winning tickets when 652 million tickets were sold?

                          If there are as many duplicates as you say, why was there only 3 winning tickets when 652 million tickets were sold?

                          How many duplicates do you think are created if only 20% of the losing tickets are printed twice?   Why do you think duplicate tickets would be more likely to win than others.  While there may be hundreds of duplicate tickets, I doubt if any single combination is ever duplicated more than once or twice.  That's the reason PB had an investigation when a combination of five was duplicated 200 times with that fortune cookie incident.

                          Only the people running lotteries have any idea of the number of duplicates printed per game because they are the only ones that have access to the list of all combinations sold.   It's probably normal for many combinations to be on that list more than once.

                           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                             
                                       Evil Looking       

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                            Posted: May 24, 2012, 7:09 pm - IP Logged

                            If there are as many duplicates as you say, why was there only 3 winning tickets when 652 million tickets were sold?

                            How many duplicates do you think are created if only 20% of the losing tickets are printed twice?   Why do you think duplicate tickets would be more likely to win than others.  While there may be hundreds of duplicate tickets, I doubt if any single combination is ever duplicated more than once or twice.  That's the reason PB had an investigation when a combination of five was duplicated 200 times with that fortune cookie incident.

                            Only the people running lotteries have any idea of the number of duplicates printed per game because they are the only ones that have access to the list of all combinations sold.   It's probably normal for many combinations to be on that list more than once.

                            "I doubt if any single combination is ever duplicated more than once or twice."

                            You are talking about MM and PB jackpot winners not second prize winners.

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                            PLAY THE LOTTERY SOMEDAY-IT IS OKAY TO DREAM!

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                              Kentucky
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                              Posted: May 24, 2012, 9:29 pm - IP Logged

                              In Ohio with any match that pays less than $5000, you have the option of going to any designated bank on a business day with your ticket verified by a retailer and picking up your money.

                              I hit 5 out of 6 before they gave that option. Any winning ticket over $600 had to go through a regional office.

                              I hit the Pick-4 straight right after they gave that option. It took the clerk over an hour to fill out the claims form, had to get it notarized, and then handed it all to a snotty bank teller. That was probably 20 years ago, but I'll bet even today most clerks have never filled out a claims form and probably don't even know where they are in the store.