Do You Think That 1 Quick Pick Ticket Is Random Enough To Win A Mega Millions Or Powerball Jackpot?Prev TopicNext Topic

• Stack47

  

  Kentucky
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  May 24, 2012, 9:49 pm

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  In response to RJOh

  Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on May 24, 2012

  If there are as many duplicates as you say, why was there only 3 winning tickets when 652 million tickets were sold?

  How many duplicates do you think are created if only 20% of the losing tickets are printed twice?   Why do you think duplicate tickets would be more likely to win than others.  While there may be hundreds of duplicate tickets, I doubt if any single combination is ever duplicated more than once or twice.  That's the reason PB had an investigation when a combination of five was duplicated 200 times with that fortune cookie incident.

  Only the people running lotteries have any idea of the number of duplicates printed per game because they are the only ones that have access to the list of all combinations sold.   It's probably normal for many combinations to be on that list more than once.

  When you said "many duplicates", I thought you meant several duplicates of the same combo. There are many tickets with a twin but if the QP RNG is truly random, shouldn't there be several of the same combination?

  "Only the people running lotteries have any idea of the number of duplicates printed per game because they are the only ones that have access to the list of all combinations sold."

  Some lotteries won't publish the amount of their ticket sales, some have the payoffs, and Tennessee and Connecticut actually refuse to release any of their sales figures. Combining your statement with mine, if players can't possibly know what they're getting, why don't they pick their own numbers?
• RJOh

  

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  May 24, 2012, 10:27 pm

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  In response to THRIFTY

  Quote: Originally posted by THRIFTY on May 24, 2012

  "I doubt if any single combination is ever duplicated more than once or twice."
  
  You are talking about MM and PB jackpot winners not second prize winners.

  I'm talking about all combinations, losers and winners for both games.  As you can see in the calculations below there could be up to 45 MM combinations winning second prize and 38 PB combinations. 

  I've never seen all the possible second prize winners actually win, not even when PB had that fortune cookie incident which had the most second prizes winners ever for either game.  There were a few duplicates since all the second prize winners didn't include all the other possible powerballs. 

   MEGAMILLIONS
   possible combos of 5/56 + 1/46 numbers = 175711536
   MATCH    ODDS            WINNING COMBOS  ODDS 1 CHANCES
   5/5+B   1 : 175711536      1              1 : 175711536
   5/5+0   1 : 3904701        45             1 : 3904701
   4/5+B   1 : 689065         255            1 : 689065
   4/5+0   1 : 15313          11475          1 : 15313
   3/5+B   1 : 13781          12750          1 : 13781
   3/5+0   1 : 306            573750         1 : 306
   2/5+B   1 : 844            208250         1 : 844
   1/5+B   1 : 141            1249500        1 : 141
   0/5+B   1 : 75             2349060        1 : 75
   _________________________________________________________
   overall odds 1 : 39.8             

  
   POWERBALL
   possible combos of 5/59 + 1/39 numbers = 195249054
   MATCH    ODDS            WINNING COMBOS  ODDS 1 CHANCES
   5/5+B   1 : 195249054      1              1 : 195249054
   5/5+0   1 : 5138133        38             1 : 5138133
   4/5+B   1 : 723145         270            1 : 723145
   4/5+0   1 : 19030          10260          1 : 19030
   3/5+B   1 : 13644          14310          1 : 13644
   3/5+0   1 : 359            543780         1 : 359
   2/5+B   1 : 787            248040         1 : 787
   1/5+B   1 : 123            1581255        1 : 123
   0/5+B   1 : 62             3162510        1 : 62
   _________________________________________________________
   overall odds 1 : 35.1              0.0 covered wins of 55

   * you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones * 

         
  
• Stack47

  

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  May 24, 2012, 10:45 pm

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  In response to RJOh

  Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on May 24, 2012

  I'm talking about all combinations, losers and winners for both games.  As you can see in the calculations below there could be up to 45 MM combinations winning second prize and 38 PB combinations. 

  I've never seen all the possible second prize winners actually win, not even when PB had that fortune cookie incident which had the most second prizes winners ever for either game.  There were a few duplicates since all the second prize winners didn't include all the other possible powerballs. 

   MEGAMILLIONS
   possible combos of 5/56 + 1/46 numbers = 175711536
   MATCH    ODDS            WINNING COMBOS  ODDS 1 CHANCES
   5/5+B   1 : 175711536      1              1 : 175711536
   5/5+0   1 : 3904701        45             1 : 3904701
   4/5+B   1 : 689065         255            1 : 689065
   4/5+0   1 : 15313          11475          1 : 15313
   3/5+B   1 : 13781          12750          1 : 13781
   3/5+0   1 : 306            573750         1 : 306
   2/5+B   1 : 844            208250         1 : 844
   1/5+B   1 : 141            1249500        1 : 141
   0/5+B   1 : 75             2349060        1 : 75
   _________________________________________________________
   overall odds 1 : 39.8             

  
   POWERBALL
   possible combos of 5/59 + 1/39 numbers = 195249054
   MATCH    ODDS            WINNING COMBOS  ODDS 1 CHANCES
   5/5+B   1 : 195249054      1              1 : 195249054
   5/5+0   1 : 5138133        38             1 : 5138133
   4/5+B   1 : 723145         270            1 : 723145
   4/5+0   1 : 19030          10260          1 : 19030
   3/5+B   1 : 13644          14310          1 : 13644
   3/5+0   1 : 359            543780         1 : 359
   2/5+B   1 : 787            248040         1 : 787
   1/5+B   1 : 123            1581255        1 : 123
   0/5+B   1 : 62             3162510        1 : 62
   _________________________________________________________
   overall odds 1 : 35.1              0.0 covered wins of 55

  "overall odds 1 : 39.8"

  That's the one figure most players overlook. That figure means 97.5% of every ticket sold wins nothing.
• Ronnie316

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  May 24, 2012, 10:59 pm

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  In response to Stack47

  Quote: Originally posted by Stack47 on May 24, 2012

  "overall odds 1 : 39.8"

  That's the one figure most players overlook. That figure means 97.5% of every ticket sold wins nothing.

  Its a "shell game"
• RJOh

  

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  May 25, 2012, 1:20 am

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  In response to mediabrat

  Quote: Originally posted by mediabrat on May 24, 2012

  "However, if people takes the time and energy (they wont) to play the same lines every time the odds of hitting increase with each passing draw. ( the one in 1000 blog will never hit because of the RNG used)"

  That was never the point of the blog.  I suppose the name was misleading, and that's my fault, but I was trying to see what you could get in lower-tier prizes when you played that many lines.

  I very well could have generated one set and used those for all drawings rather than making a fresh set each time, but again, that's not what I was testing.

  And I've abandoned the blog.  It seemed like a good idea at the time, but I got bored with it and didn't feel like keeping it up.

  It seemed like a good idea at the time, but I got bored with it and didn't feel like keeping it up.

  That happens a lot at LP.  Someone comes up with an idea telling everyone that it will change forever how lotteries are played and then they drop it never staying with it long enough to prove if it was any good or not.  Six months later some one else comes up a similar idea and start the cycle all over again.

   * you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones * 

         
  
• Ronnie316

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  May 25, 2012, 12:45 pm

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  In response to RJOh

  Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on May 25, 2012

  It seemed like a good idea at the time, but I got bored with it and didn't feel like keeping it up.

  That happens a lot at LP.  Someone comes up with an idea telling everyone that it will change forever how lotteries are played and then they drop it never staying with it long enough to prove if it was any good or not.  Six months later some one else comes up a similar idea and start the cycle all over again.

  I think this idea would have been genius if the objective had been to win a jackpot.

  Here is a way to scientifically test various hypothesis arguments like:

  Is it better play the same numbers over and over, compared to using a new set of QP every draw?

  Is it better to play all random lines or a group of lines with the bonus ball wheeled? 

  And these are just 2 questions that My pea shaped brain came up with, I'm sure the LP family could come up with many better questions than mine.
• Ronnie316

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  May 25, 2012, 2:24 pm

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  In response to RJOh

  Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on May 25, 2012

  It seemed like a good idea at the time, but I got bored with it and didn't feel like keeping it up.

  That happens a lot at LP.  Someone comes up with an idea telling everyone that it will change forever how lotteries are played and then they drop it never staying with it long enough to prove if it was any good or not.  Six months later some one else comes up a similar idea and start the cycle all over again.

  What was the point of "one in a 100" really? This is not a liberal arts class room where everything is subjective and you can change definitions at will. This is the real world where the Lotteries pay back 10% (or less) of their take in small prizes. So he went to all that trouble to find out that? if you spend $175,000 you get back $17,000 month after month, year after year? I hope the project can be resurrected with better objectives.
• RJOh

  

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  May 25, 2012, 3:06 pm

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  In response to Ronnie316

  Quote: Originally posted by Ronnie316 on May 25, 2012

  What was the point of "one in a 100" really? This is not a liberal arts class room where everything is subjective and you can change definitions at will. This is the real world where the Lotteries pay back 10% (or less) of their take in small prizes. So he went to all that trouble to find out that? if you spend $175,000 you get back $17,000 month after month, year after year? I hope the project can be resurrected with better objectives.

  I think mediabrat tried to answer that in his response.  My comments were about similar threads never running long enough to prove anything.

   * you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones * 

         
  
• mediabrat

  

  upstate NY
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  May 25, 2012, 6:41 pm

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  In response to Ronnie316

  Quote: Originally posted by Ronnie316 on May 25, 2012

  What was the point of "one in a 100" really? This is not a liberal arts class room where everything is subjective and you can change definitions at will. This is the real world where the Lotteries pay back 10% (or less) of their take in small prizes. So he went to all that trouble to find out that? if you spend $175,000 you get back $17,000 month after month, year after year? I hope the project can be resurrected with better objectives.

  I explained my motivations and objectives in the first blog entry.  (Side note:  I'm surprised it's still up; I thought LP blog entries for standard members weren't visible after 60 days, and it's been a little over 60 days now.)

  I had a very specific curiosity and I was able to satisfy it much faster than I expected.  I apologize if my abandoning the project upset you in any way.

  
• Ronnie316

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  May 25, 2012, 9:39 pm

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  In response to mediabrat

  Quote: Originally posted by mediabrat on May 25, 2012

  I explained my motivations and objectives in the first blog entry.  (Side note:  I'm surprised it's still up; I thought LP blog entries for standard members weren't visible after 60 days, and it's been a little over 60 days now.)

  I had a very specific curiosity and I was able to satisfy it much faster than I expected.  I apologize if my abandoning the project upset you in any way.

  No problem media,

  do whatever you need to do. It is your time and energy to do as you wish.

  I was just thinking that a person with your expertise and talent could try a couple of different approaches to selecting lines and see which ones work best.

  It doesn't even seem like you should have to wait for each draw as you could use the previous 700+ winning draws as hits, to see which methods would have hit over the past few years.

  There are numerous people here that have methods that they would like to test but your the only person I see with the ability to back test. Maybe you and Todd could create a back testing service of some kind?