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Do some number combinations have better odds?

Topic closed. 5280 replies. Last post 4 years ago by rdgrnr.

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Posted: December 29, 2012, 8:50 am - IP Logged

I haven't done  28  in awhile

 

2  5  6  8  9     10  11  12  13     22  24  26  28  29       31 32 33  34  37

                41  42  43  44  48       51  52  54  56

                             Still riding   Bonus Ball 

                                          24

I'm  "Highly Balanced"   with at least Four in every catagory

                                Jack-in-the-Box  Boing

4 of 5 on this draw x1kosmic, very nice work...........

Friday, December 28, 2012      10 · 13 · 32 · 40 · 41    32            4$25 Million


    United States
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    Posted: December 29, 2012, 8:52 am - IP Logged

    Set of 28 for MM. Fri. Dec. 28, 2012.

    03 05 07 08 11 12 13 18 19 22 24 26 28 29 32 33 34 37 41 42 43 44 47 48 51 52 54 56

    bonus ball 10

    3 of 5 on this draw.................

    Friday, December 28, 2012         10 · 13 · 32 · 40 · 41     32       4$25 Million


      United States
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      Posted: December 29, 2012, 8:53 am - IP Logged

      2 of 5 for Boney on this draw.................

      1, 4, 8, 12, 14, 15, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 30, 31, 35, 38, 39, 40, 41, 43, 46, 53, 54, 56  Not sure if you wanted me to use a bonus ball.  RNG says 45.

      Friday, December 28, 2012         10 · 13 · 32 · 40 · 41    32        4$25 Million


        United States
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        Posted: December 29, 2012, 9:12 am - IP Logged

        Im playing this set of 39 for PB. Sat. Dec. 29, 2012.

        02 03 06 07 09 11 13 16 17 18 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 32 34 35 40 43 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 55 57 58 59

        bonus ball 12


          United States
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          Posted: December 29, 2012, 9:16 am - IP Logged

          I know what you're guessing, and what you're not guessing.  I wonder how many other readers here know too, but are, for some reason, afraid to admit it?  Oh well, here goes again...

           
          Standard Deviation
           
          In the spirit of the old adage "A Picture Is Worth A Thousand Words," I offer the following to help lift the fog that seems to have settled on this thread.  Please excuse the use of * to produce this picture, and the rounding used to scale it.  It is based on the output of a Monte Carlo style computer simulation I wrote to show what randomness is capable of producing in the lottery world, using Pick-3 as the vehicle.
           
          In words, the simulation is of 25,000 players buying Five(5) $1.00 Straight Quick Pick tickets per day for Five(5) Years, or 1825 Days. The payoff is $500 when they win.  Somewhat arbitrarily, I chose to start each player on day 1 with a "Stake" of $9125.00, which allows them to lose every bet they make over the five years without having to borrow from their friends.
           
          Each row in the output below represents a subset of the 25,000 people whose results were the same.
           
          In each row, the 3 numerical columns represent:
           
          Win    The amount in $ left to the players in their subset at the end of the five years
          ROI    The Return On Investment of the people in their subset ==> (100*(Win - 9125) / 9125)
           #        The number of people in the subset.  (The summation of all rows is 25,000)
           
           *        Each asterisk represents 27 people in its respective row.  You will notice roundoff error
                     which resulted from scaling to avoid distorting the "picture" through wrap around.  It's not
                     really important, since the scale used here is fine enough to show you what's going on.
                    The most obvious roundoff errors are in the "tails" of the distribution.  For example, 35
                     people (out of the 25,000) ended up with $500 at the end of the five years.  35 divided by
                     27 is ~1.3, which rounds off to 1.  Thus 1 * in the 2nd row.
           
          Study these results for a while, and then look below for further discussion. (2)
           
               Win ROI   #
                0 -100    3  * 
            500   -95   35  * 
           1000  -90   99  *** 
           1500  -84  311  *********** 
           2000  -79  765  **************************** 
           2500  -73 1426  **************************************************** 
           3000  -68 2171  ******************************************************************************** 
           3500  -62 2958  ************************************************************************************************************* 
           4000  -57 3176  ********************************************************************************************************************* 
           4500  -51 3346  *************************************************************************************************************************** 
           5000  -46 3065  ***************************************************************************************************************** 
           5500  -40 2551  ********************************************************************************************** 
           6000  -35 1825  ******************************************************************* 
           6500  -29 1318  ************************************************ 
           7000  -24  823  ****************************** 
           7500  -18  535  ******************* 
           8000  -13  283  ********** 
           8500    -7  152  ***** 
           9000    -2   83  *** 
           9500     4   36  * 
          10000    9   21  * 
          10500   15    4  * 
          11000   20    8  * 
          11500   26    2  * 
          12000   31    1  * 
          13500   47    1  * 
          14000   53    1  * 
          15500   69    1  * 
          For our (practical) purposes, we can treat this distribution as Normal. The Mean(1) of the Win column is 4560, with a Standard Deviation of 1501.50.  As expected(approximately), the Mean ROI was 50.6 with a SD of 16.5.  So, about 76% of the 25,000 people ended up holding between $3000 and $6000.  Look above, and you can see what this looks like graphically.  But remember, they all started out with $9125, so all of these 19,092 people were losers, losing between $3125 and $6125 over their 5 years of play.  Which brings us to the BIG losers, and, TA! TA!  The WINNERS!  Yes, randomness produces winners, even over long periods of time.  I'll let you peruse the data and absorb how many BIG losers there were, and how much they lost.  What I want you to play close attention to, though, is the small group of winners that resulted.  There were 75 people who ended up with more than the $9125 they started out with!  But let's focus on the 18 people who ended up with from $10,500 to $15,500, representing gains from $1375 through $6375.  Now, let's use our imaginations for a minute.  Let's pretend that our Old Uncle Craig was the sole person out of the 25,000 who ended up with $15,500, for a return on his investment of 69%  Let's assume further that he had devised a "System" for playing Pick-3 prior to the 5 years of play described above.
           
          Here is the most important part of this posting!  If Old Uncle Craig doesn't know anything about Means and Standard Deviations, or doesn't "Believe" they apply to flying lottery ping pong balls, DO YOU THINK ANYONE WILL EVER BE ABLE TO CONVINCE HIM THAT HIS WINNINGS WERE MERELY THE RESULT OF THE LUCK OF THE DRAW, OF RANDOMNESS?

            (1) The Means and Std. Deviations mentioned here were calculated on 25,000 rows, so don't expect to get the same results from the data listed above.  This data is a summary, calculated to allow you to view the distribution.
           
          (2)  I ran this simulation multple times, using different Random Number Generator Seeds, and the results were strikingly similar.
           
           
          --Jimmy4164
           
          P.S.
          Boney526: 
          Since I've taken the time to write this program and present the results, I hope I can count on you to help explain it. Big Smile
           
          Anyone who has not yet posted in this thread:
          If you understand this post, and agree with its conclusions, don't be bashful.  It would be wonderful to discover that there are others here besides Boney526 and myself who are not Fooled By Randomness!

           Thanks for making this chart, I think its very pretty even if Boney doesn't like it. It looks like a bell curve to me.

                0 -100    3  *   
            500   -95   35  *   
           1000  -90   99  ***   
           1500  -84  311  ***********   
           2000  -79  765  ****************************   
           2500  -73 1426  ****************************************************   
           3000  -68 2171  ********************************************************************************   
           3500  -62 2958  *************************************************************************************************************   
           4000  -57 3176  *********************************************************************************************************************   
           4500  -51 3346  ***************************************************************************************************************************   
           5000  -46 3065  *****************************************************************************************************************   
           5500  -40 2551  **********************************************************************************************   
           6000  -35 1825  *******************************************************************   
           6500  -29 1318  ************************************************   
           7000  -24  823  ******************************   
           7500  -18  535  *******************   
           8000  -13  283  **********   
           8500    -7  152  *****   
           9000    -2   83  ***   
           9500     4   36  *   
          10000    9   21  *   


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            Posted: December 29, 2012, 9:18 am - IP Logged

            You seem to be telling us that on the nights that you win, you have BETTER ODDS of winning.

            Is this correct?

            And to think that for all these years I've been living with the belief that the ODDS of all games are constants, based on the rules of the games, on ALL nights, regardless of whether I win or lose.

            We obviously have a different understanding of such things.

            http://www.wizardofodds.com/games/lottery

            --Jimmy4164

            Getting BETTER ODDS on a given night is NOT that hard to do. I think a 1st grader could do it........


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              Posted: December 29, 2012, 10:09 am - IP Logged

                           


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                Posted: December 29, 2012, 10:34 am - IP Logged

                Here is a test for you statistical geniuses out there....................

                Get one of your computer programing wiz kids to produce 87.5 million QP lines each draw and see how long it takes to average a 50% win/lose ratio........... 

                I predict that you will lose FOUR TIMES as much as you win 5+1............ (maybe 10 times)


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                  Posted: December 29, 2012, 10:37 am - IP Logged

                  Heck, the way you guys play the lottery you may NEVER hit 5+1 using 87.5 million lines.

                    Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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                    Posted: December 29, 2012, 11:26 am - IP Logged

                     Thanks for making this chart, I think its very pretty even if Boney doesn't like it. It looks like a bell curve to me.

                          0 -100    3  *   
                      500   -95   35  *   
                     1000  -90   99  ***   
                     1500  -84  311  ***********   
                     2000  -79  765  ****************************   
                     2500  -73 1426  ****************************************************   
                     3000  -68 2171  ********************************************************************************   
                     3500  -62 2958  *************************************************************************************************************   
                     4000  -57 3176  *********************************************************************************************************************   
                     4500  -51 3346  ***************************************************************************************************************************   
                     5000  -46 3065  *****************************************************************************************************************   
                     5500  -40 2551  **********************************************************************************************   
                     6000  -35 1825  *******************************************************************   
                     6500  -29 1318  ************************************************   
                     7000  -24  823  ******************************   
                     7500  -18  535  *******************   
                     8000  -13  283  **********   
                     8500    -7  152  *****   
                     9000    -2   83  ***   
                     9500     4   36  *   
                    10000    9   21  *   

                    So you really don't understand ANYTHING of what I wrote huh?

                     

                    Cuz Jimmy just put a chart to the things that I was trying to explain....

                     

                    Did you even read what the chart means?  Or any of the explanation?  Or did you just see a chart and think "oh a pretty picture!"

                     

                    FYI, the reason it looks like a bell curve is because it IS a bell curve.....  which is what standard deviation looks like for normal disitributions like the monetary results from lottery play....

                      Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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                      Posted: December 29, 2012, 11:28 am - IP Logged

                      I Agree! These far left wingers talk the most nonsensical do-do-BS

                      Your comprehension skills are so low you think I'm a left winger.

                       

                      Which, is, of course, ludicrus because I've never voted Democrat in my life, and have stated my conservative beliefs a million times on this site.


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                        Posted: December 29, 2012, 1:35 pm - IP Logged

                        Your comprehension skills are so low you think I'm a left winger.

                         

                        Which, is, of course, ludicrus because I've never voted Democrat in my life, and have stated my conservative beliefs a million times on this site.

                        Yes Boney, Im completely stupid...............

                        Thats why Im asking you to play 50% of the MM lines to see if you can hit 5+1, 50% of the time.


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                          Posted: December 29, 2012, 1:40 pm - IP Logged

                          You seem to be telling us that on the nights that you win, you have BETTER ODDS of winning.

                          Is this correct?

                          And to think that for all these years I've been living with the belief that the ODDS of all games are constants, based on the rules of the games, on ALL nights, regardless of whether I win or lose.

                          We obviously have a different understanding of such things.

                          http://www.wizardofodds.com/games/lottery

                          --Jimmy4164

                          Ú ΗΑve been Dupe Alerted

                            x1kosmic's avatar - neptune vg2.gif

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                            Posted: December 29, 2012, 3:52 pm - IP Logged

                            4 of 5 on this draw x1kosmic, very nice work...........

                            Friday, December 28, 2012      10 · 13 · 32 · 40 · 41    32            4$25 Million

                            Yep

                                    Thanks!!!


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                              Posted: December 29, 2012, 4:48 pm - IP Logged

                              Ú ΗΑve been Dupe Alerted

                              Jimmy has made his choice....................

                                 
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