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Topic closed. 181 replies. Last post 3 years ago by Stack47.

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NEW YORK
United States
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April 29, 2010
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 Posted: January 29, 2014, 6:47 pm - IP Logged

Chances and Odds are two different things in lottery games.

Actually, they are exactly the same. It's easier to think about it in terms of probability of winning. If the "odds" of winning are 1 in 10, then you have a 0.10 or 10% chance of winning (found by dividing 1 into 10). If you buy two tickets, each with odds of 1 in 10, then your odds of winning are 2 in 10 or reduced to 1 in 5 (result is same either way). That gives you a 0.20 or 20% chance of winning. Again, this assumes each combination is not identical.

Another example: you buy 1 ticket (odds of 1 in 10, 10% chance), someone else buys 2 tickets (odds of 2 in 10 or 1 in 5, 20% chance). Who is more likely to win? The person who bought two. So odds, chances, and probability in lotteries are exactly the same. Probability is just the decimalized intrepretation of odds. You can also divide "1" by the probability of winning to find the odds, i.e. 1/0.20 = 5 or 1 in 5 (which of course is equal to 2 in 10).

Now when it comes to PB and MM, buying more than 1 ticket hardly improves your chances because the odds are so long to begin with. If a million people bought 176 different tickets each, it is likely that only 1 of them would have a winning ticket.

ODDS OF WINNING THE MEGA MILLIONS JACKPOT ARE 1 IN 259 MILLION.

PLAY THE LOTTERY SOMEDAY-IT IS OKAY TO DREAM!

Happyland
United States
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September 1, 2013
1133 Posts
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 Posted: January 29, 2014, 7:24 pm - IP Logged

So odds, chances, and probability in lotteries are exactly the same.

Incorrect.

Odds, probability and chances are all different things.

odds = chances for : chances against (or x to y)

probability = chances for / total chances (or x in y)

Using your example, probability of 1 in 10 or 1/10, can also be expressed as odds of 1 to 9 or 1:9. It is the lottery industry in which there are blurred lines between odds and probability, labelling probability as "odds" for simplicity.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Odds

Why am I not surprised you took my comments out of context by only posting one of my sentences? So desperate to use the word "incorrect," obviously.

Of course I am referring to it in the context of the lottery. In this case, probability is just a different way of expressing the odds. It makes no sense to explain the traditional sense of odds here because it is not being used in that context. I've posted before that traditional aka gambling odds and lottery odds are not the same. But that is besides the point. The main theme of my responses was that in the lottery, odds = chances.

If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

2017: 0% (0 tickets)
P&L % = Total Win(\$)/Total Wager(\$) - 1

NEW YORK
United States
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April 29, 2010
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 Posted: January 29, 2014, 7:33 pm - IP Logged

Why am I not surprised you took my comments out of context by only posting one of my sentences? So desperate to use the word "incorrect," obviously.

Of course I am referring to it in the context of the lottery. In this case, probability is just a different way of expressing the odds. It makes no sense to explain the traditional sense of odds here because it is not being used in that context. I've posted before that traditional aka gambling odds and lottery odds are not the same. But that is besides the point. The main theme of my responses was that in the lottery, odds = chances.

ODDS OF WINNING THE POWERBALL JACKPOT ARE 1 IN 175,223,510 MILLION.

PLAY THE LOTTERY SOMEDAY-IT IS OKAY TO DREAM!

Los Angeles, California
United States
Member #103813
January 5, 2011
1530 Posts
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 Posted: January 29, 2014, 8:09 pm - IP Logged

Why am I not surprised you took my comments out of context by only posting one of my sentences? So desperate to use the word "incorrect," obviously.

Of course I am referring to it in the context of the lottery. In this case, probability is just a different way of expressing the odds. It makes no sense to explain the traditional sense of odds here because it is not being used in that context. I've posted before that traditional aka gambling odds and lottery odds are not the same. But that is besides the point. The main theme of my responses was that in the lottery, odds = chances.

Oh LottoMetro,

You're sooo desperate to try and dazzle people with you mathematical skills and inside lottery knowledge. So desperate to prove others wrong and LottoMetro right. Funny...and sad.

And you yourself took things out of context, as Thrifty was referring to odds in the jargon of lottery players, but you come in and talk a different context. But in neither lottery nor gambling nor mathematical contexts does chances = odds, don't know where you get that from laser brain.

You're the one representing yourself as some kind of expert: the mathematician, business/economics grad, reality TV and film industry worker, lottery industry employee, published author, national TV featured, friend of millionaires and billionaires, yada, yada.(did I miss any zingers? ) So if you wanna act like a know-it-all, you better get ALL of your facts and sentences straight pal.

As I noted in the other thread, something doesn't add up. For someone so busy you spend an inordinate amount of time here getting into nit-picky arguments with peaceful lottery players. You try to pass yourself off as just a player, when you are anything but. People can sense that. That's why you don't get much response. People can smell a sneak, a snake in the grass, no matter how much you keep trying to build up your LottoMetro brand.

Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
United States
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April 28, 2009
14903 Posts
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 Posted: January 29, 2014, 8:18 pm - IP Logged

To win a MM jackpot we must match the bonus number so sometimes buying more tickets doesn't really increase our chances. If we get 15 tickets each with a different bonus number, we still only have one chance to win the jackpot because 14 of the tickets won't match the bonus number.

Lots of players use the Megaplier option and how the bonus numbers are selected does have an effect on the payoffs and the overall chances of winning some prizes. It's almost like playing against yourself by using the same bonus number on multiple Megaplier tickets because if your bonus number is drawn, none your tickets can win the 5 + 0 prize. The effect is the same without the using Megaplier because using the same bonus number on all tickets means players can only win half the secondary prizes.

And that brings up the questions of can the overall chances of winning a prize change from 1 in every 14.71 tickets become better or worse depending on self-pick bonus number distribution.

"To win a MM jackpot we must match the bonus number so sometimes buying more tickets doesn't really increase our chances. If we get 15 tickets each with a different bonus number, we still only have one chance to win the jackpot because 14 of the tickets won't match the bonus number."

I think that's called Kintucky logic.

NEW YORK
United States
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April 29, 2010
12118 Posts
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 Posted: January 29, 2014, 8:30 pm - IP Logged

"To win a MM jackpot we must match the bonus number so sometimes buying more tickets doesn't really increase our chances. If we get 15 tickets each with a different bonus number, we still only have one chance to win the jackpot because 14 of the tickets won't match the bonus number."

I think that's called Kintucky logic.

THE CLASSIC LOTTERY POST DEBATE OF THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN CHANCES AND ODDS HAS STARTED. LOL

PLAY THE LOTTERY SOMEDAY-IT IS OKAY TO DREAM!

Happyland
United States
Member #146344
September 1, 2013
1133 Posts
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 Posted: January 29, 2014, 8:34 pm - IP Logged

Oh LottoMetro,

You're sooo desperate to try and dazzle people with you mathematical skills and inside lottery knowledge. So desperate to prove others wrong and LottoMetro right. Funny...and sad.

And you yourself took things out of context, as Thrifty was referring to odds in the jargon of lottery players, but you come in and talk a different context. But in neither lottery nor gambling nor mathematical contexts does chances = odds, don't know where you get that from laser brain.

You're the one representing yourself as some kind of expert: the mathematician, business/economics grad, reality TV and film industry worker, lottery industry employee, published author, national TV featured, friend of millionaires and billionaires, yada, yada.(did I miss any zingers? ) So if you wanna act like a know-it-all, you better get ALL of your facts and sentences straight pal.

As I noted in the other thread, something doesn't add up. For someone so busy you spend an inordinate amount of time here getting into nit-picky arguments with peaceful lottery players. You try to pass yourself off as just a player, when you are anything but. People can sense that. That's why you don't get much response. People can smell a sneak, a snake in the grass, no matter how much you keep trying to build up your LottoMetro brand.

If someone has an issue with the way I explain something, they can always ask for clarification. I am not going to dumb down my posts for your sake. Every one of your responses to me is either a nitpicking of the information I provide or lame accusation of ulterior motives. Odds and chances are exactly the same thing, just different ways of expressing it. I can say that I have 2 chances to win out of 10 or odds of 1 in 5. I can say I have a 20% chance of winning or odds of 2 in 10 or odds of 1 in 5. They are all the same thing in the context of the lottery. There is so much confusion among players because of people like you. I don't have a "brand" and don't intend to build a following. If you're trying to run me out of town, so as to speak, good luck. I don't plan to go anywhere unless I run out of things to say. I happen to have lots of free time, which is why I frequent the forum often. I feel like I provide some value through the information I share on the forum, and the only person who seems to disagree is YOU. So who has the real problem here?

If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

2017: 0% (0 tickets)
P&L % = Total Win(\$)/Total Wager(\$) - 1

Los Angeles, California
United States
Member #103813
January 5, 2011
1530 Posts
Offline
 Posted: January 29, 2014, 8:39 pm - IP Logged

If someone has an issue with the way I explain something, they can always ask for clarification. I am not going to dumb down my posts for your sake. Every one of your responses to me is either a nitpicking of the information I provide or lame accusation of ulterior motives. Odds and chances are exactly the same thing, just different ways of expressing it. I can say that I have 2 chances to win out of 10 or odds of 1 in 5. I can say I have a 20% chance of winning or odds of 2 in 10 or odds of 1 in 5. They are all the same thing in the context of the lottery. There is so much confusion among players because of people like you. I don't have a "brand" and don't intend to build a following. If you're trying to run me out of town, so as to speak, good luck. I don't plan to go anywhere unless I run out of things to say. I happen to have lots of free time, which is why I frequent the forum often. I feel like I provide some value through the information I share on the forum, and the only person who seems to disagree is YOU. So who has the real problem here?

Information is valued.

Condescending attitude, please check it at the door. Thanks.

NEW YORK
United States
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April 29, 2010
12118 Posts
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 Posted: January 29, 2014, 9:03 pm - IP Logged

RINGO STARR: PEACE AND LOTTERY LOVE.

PLAY THE LOTTERY SOMEDAY-IT IS OKAY TO DREAM!

United States
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June 2, 2012
5431 Posts
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 Posted: January 29, 2014, 10:38 pm - IP Logged

ODDS OF WINNING THE MEGA MILLIONS JACKPOT ARE 1 IN 259 MILLION.

That doesn't matter. I know for a fact that I will win. How? I don't really know, I just have this funny feeling I'll win. And

everyone who gets those funny feelings will win the JP too. ALL of them.

Just watch the news, there's going to be a major spike of JP winners within the next five years. Millions of JP winners across the country. All you have to do to win is to believe. And since a heck of a lot of people believe, this is the proof that they will ALL win.

Kentucky
United States
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February 14, 2006
7458 Posts
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 Posted: January 30, 2014, 2:00 am - IP Logged

If we get 15 tickets each with a different bonus number, we still only have one chance to win the jackpot because 14 of the tickets won't match the bonus number.

No, you still have 15 chances to win the jackpot. The jackpot can be any one of those bonus numbers. It's the same whether you choose 15 different bonus numbers or 1 bonus number 15 times. Think of each line as a separate combination. Now, if you choose 15 lines that are exactly the same, then of course you only have one chance. But if even 1 number is different on each line, then you have more than 1 combination and hence more than 1 chance.

"No, you still have 15 chances to win the jackpot."

It depends on how you look at it, but I was comparing 15 tickets all with different bonus numbers with 15 tickets with the same bonus number. The odds of picking the correct bonus number is 1 in 15 so if any of the other 14 bonus numbers are drawn, it's impossible to win the jackpot. By purchasing all the bonus numbers on 15 tickets, by default we should know it's impossible for 14 of those tickets to win the jackpot or any of the secondary prizes that require match the bonus number.

You can say by purchasing the same bonus number on every ticket you have of 15 chances of matching 5 + 0 too. I was trying to compare having a 1 in 15 chance of having 15 chances to win the jackpot to having 15 chances to have 1 chance out of 18,492,204 of winning the jackpot.

There are 169,442,196 MM combinations that have a chance to win jackpot in every drawing, but after the drawing none of them will match a number or the bonus number. That's 65% of all the combos and to that add the 1 + 0 and 2 + 0 that pay nothing too. Probably not a right way or wrong way to express the odds, but 1 million tickets only have 0.386% chance of winning a jackpot.

Kentucky
United States
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February 14, 2006
7458 Posts
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 Posted: January 30, 2014, 2:03 am - IP Logged

"To win a MM jackpot we must match the bonus number so sometimes buying more tickets doesn't really increase our chances. If we get 15 tickets each with a different bonus number, we still only have one chance to win the jackpot because 14 of the tickets won't match the bonus number."

I think that's called Kintucky logic.

Are you going to follow me and make a childish comment on every thing I post?

I'm not surprised you don't know only one ticket out of 258,890,850 can win a MM jackpot. Bet you think by using the Megaplier, you can win up to five times the advertised jackpot too.

Kentucky
United States
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February 14, 2006
7458 Posts
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 Posted: January 30, 2014, 2:12 am - IP Logged

THE CLASSIC LOTTERY POST DEBATE OF THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN CHANCES AND ODDS HAS STARTED. LOL

I really doubt the LP members who are obsessed with discussing how they will spend their imaginary jackpot winnings know or want to know the difference between "odds, chances, and probabilities".

NEW YORK
United States
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April 29, 2010
12118 Posts
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 Posted: January 30, 2014, 2:47 am - IP Logged

I really doubt the LP members who are obsessed with discussing how they will spend their imaginary jackpot winnings know or want to know the difference between "odds, chances, and probabilities".

"How will you increase your odds in winning?

You cannot change the odds in winning, it is a mathamatical formula which is set in stone for any given game as long as the Matrix doesn't change."

By Butch2030

PLAY THE LOTTERY SOMEDAY-IT IS OKAY TO DREAM!

Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
United States
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April 28, 2009
14903 Posts
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 Posted: January 30, 2014, 10:16 am - IP Logged

Are you going to follow me and make a childish comment on every thing I post?

I'm not surprised you don't know only one ticket out of 258,890,850 can win a MM jackpot. Bet you think by using the Megaplier, you can win up to five times the advertised jackpot too.

I'll make a comment on anything I dam well please, numbnuts, and there ain't a dam thing you can do about it.

And I'll be dam sure to make a comment when you say something as utterly ridiculous and stupid as you did.

You just go ahead and continue to amaze everyone with your stupidity.

And I'll dam well continue to comment on it.

I know that's hard for a CONTROL FREAK like you to deal with, but you know what, Stank?

You're just gonna have to get over it.

Ain'tcha boy?

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