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Powerball Power Play Number Almost Always 2 ?

Topic closed. 73 replies. Last post 3 years ago by JADELottery.

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LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
Happyland
United States
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September 1, 2013
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Posted: March 27, 2014, 8:12 pm - IP Logged

No manipulations necessarily.....the 2 ball is programmed to hit 50% of the time and the 3 ball about 30% of the time. So 80% of all the time, your winnings will be multiplied by 3 or less. That's without any interference. Not such a great bet after all LOL

The fact they won't even go past $2 million for second prize is just sad.

If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

    JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
    The Quantum Master
    West Concord, MN
    United States
    Member #21
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    Posted: March 28, 2014, 3:50 pm - IP Logged

    Observation noted.

    We're looking.

    Red Eyes

    Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
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    Use at your own risk.

    Order is a Subset of Chaos
    Knowledge is Beyond Belief
    Wisdom is Not Censored
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    Jehocifer

      JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
      The Quantum Master
      West Concord, MN
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      Posted: March 28, 2014, 5:43 pm - IP Logged

      From:

      http://www.powerball.com/powerball/pb_prizes.asp

      http://www.megamillions.com/how-to-play

      Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
      Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
      Use at your own risk.

      Order is a Subset of Chaos
      Knowledge is Beyond Belief
      Wisdom is Not Censored
      Douglas Paul Smallish
      Jehocifer

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        United States
        Member #145267
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        Posted: March 28, 2014, 5:53 pm - IP Logged

        I like that on the same line, no manipulations and the word programmed.


          United States
          Member #153847
          March 27, 2014
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          Posted: March 29, 2014, 9:33 am - IP Logged

          Ok, I have a question on the charts posted by JADELottery ... tell me if I am seeing or figuring these numbers and odds correctly.

          With PowerPlay it seems pretty clear ... there are a total of 10 numbers in the digital mix with only one 5 and one 4 ... three 3s and five 2s for a total of 10 numbers.

          Now with Megaplier ... there are a total of 15 numbers in the digital mix ... this is where I am getting mixed up or don't understand the odds. The number 5 has odds of "1 in 2.5" ... am I correct in assuming that there are many 5s in the digital mix ... more 5s than 4s ... since 4 has odds of "1 in 5". How many 5s should be in those 15 numbers?

          If this is true then the MM would still be the better play for the extra dollar in another way with more chances at getting the 5X.

          Am I looking at this right ???

          Additional: In a couple of my earlier posts on this subject I incorrectly said "1 to 5" when I meant "2 to 5" and also said the extra dollar was "1 million" and I meant "2 million". The time limit was up to correct those posts but I figured people knew what I meant.

          GLTA

          ... as I look at the Megaplier odds again, I am not sure where I got that there are a total of 15 numbers in the digital mix ... maybe there are only 10 numbers total.

            LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
            Happyland
            United States
            Member #146344
            September 1, 2013
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            Posted: March 29, 2014, 2:28 pm - IP Logged

            Ok, I have a question on the charts posted by JADELottery ... tell me if I am seeing or figuring these numbers and odds correctly.

            With PowerPlay it seems pretty clear ... there are a total of 10 numbers in the digital mix with only one 5 and one 4 ... three 3s and five 2s for a total of 10 numbers.

            Now with Megaplier ... there are a total of 15 numbers in the digital mix ... this is where I am getting mixed up or don't understand the odds. The number 5 has odds of "1 in 2.5" ... am I correct in assuming that there are many 5s in the digital mix ... more 5s than 4s ... since 4 has odds of "1 in 5". How many 5s should be in those 15 numbers?

            If this is true then the MM would still be the better play for the extra dollar in another way with more chances at getting the 5X.

            Am I looking at this right ???

            Additional: In a couple of my earlier posts on this subject I incorrectly said "1 to 5" when I meant "2 to 5" and also said the extra dollar was "1 million" and I meant "2 million". The time limit was up to correct those posts but I figured people knew what I meant.

            GLTA

            ... as I look at the Megaplier odds again, I am not sure where I got that there are a total of 15 numbers in the digital mix ... maybe there are only 10 numbers total.

            The charts he posted are the ones posted by the lottery. Go back to my post here: http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/273839/3540130. You will see the Megaplier stated in terms of 15. There are six 5s, three 4s, four 3s, and two 2s. The lottery simplifies this to terms of odds of "1 in...." by just dividing.

            MM is still the better play per dollar, you have to think of it by cost because it's not really fair to compare a $2 ticket to a $3 one. The current Power Play actually returns less than the old one (even though both have/had the same 2nd prize $2 million).

            If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
            If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

            2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
            P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

              sflottolover's avatar - spherewall2
              San Leandro, very near Oakland and San Francisco.
              United States
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              November 5, 2013
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              Posted: March 29, 2014, 5:02 pm - IP Logged

              Hi ... just joined LP today ... been reading for some time. I have been waiting for someone to make a comment about the PB Power Play number almost always being a "2". I don't usually play the extra dollar but for some reason I did for the whole month of March. Seems to be kind of a waste playing the extra dollar.

              Is PB controlling that in someway or are there more 2s than 4s and 5s in the mix of numbers. Is each number from 1 to 5 equal in the draw or are there more 2s than any other number. I noticed this earlier ( a few years ago) with Mega Millions I think but it could have also been the PB ... the 2s always seem to be drawn much more than 4s or 5s.

              Of course the states save money with the 2 being drawn but is this looking somewhat suspicious to anyone and is the extra dollar really worth it?

              This month (March) with PB drawings, the 2 has has appeared 6 out of 8 draws and since PB has made the change back to the Power Play with 19 drawings so far, 2 has come out 12 times with 3 coming out 4 times ... 5 has only been out once. This doesn't seem right to me, something being controlled here or are there more 2s mixed in with the total numbers from 1 to 5. I am not sure about that and maybe someone here also finds this interesting and has a possible answer.

              Thanks ... I don't think I will be playing the extra dollar on PB anymore, just on Mega Millions. 

              Good luck to all ...

              Yes, I also keep playing at basical about 2~4 games every, mostly at two games at every time!

              It is not so easy to follow up in chasing its numbers, even I have marked them in my note book with simple stastics. The mega is the most important one (if not included in the game). You will never win big rewrds, if there is no mega number in your game!

              It is so easy to loss!

              Thanks for your kindness to visit my posting; and left me your warmness for my slow chewing! 

              Those who wants to win lottery is normal; and it is abnormal if anybody does not want to win!

              http://www.writers-network.com/members/sfiawong

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                NEW YORK
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                April 29, 2010
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                Posted: March 30, 2014, 10:13 am - IP Logged

                Hi ... just joined LP today ... been reading for some time. I have been waiting for someone to make a comment about the PB Power Play number almost always being a "2". I don't usually play the extra dollar but for some reason I did for the whole month of March. Seems to be kind of a waste playing the extra dollar.

                Is PB controlling that in someway or are there more 2s than 4s and 5s in the mix of numbers. Is each number from 1 to 5 equal in the draw or are there more 2s than any other number. I noticed this earlier ( a few years ago) with Mega Millions I think but it could have also been the PB ... the 2s always seem to be drawn much more than 4s or 5s.

                Of course the states save money with the 2 being drawn but is this looking somewhat suspicious to anyone and is the extra dollar really worth it?

                This month (March) with PB drawings, the 2 has has appeared 6 out of 8 draws and since PB has made the change back to the Power Play with 19 drawings so far, 2 has come out 12 times with 3 coming out 4 times ... 5 has only been out once. This doesn't seem right to me, something being controlled here or are there more 2s mixed in with the total numbers from 1 to 5. I am not sure about that and maybe someone here also finds this interesting and has a possible answer.

                Thanks ... I don't think I will be playing the extra dollar on PB anymore, just on Mega Millions. 

                Good luck to all ...

                Do not play the Powerball Lottery.

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                PLAY THE LOTTERY SOMEDAY-IT IS OKAY TO DREAM!

                  JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
                  The Quantum Master
                  West Concord, MN
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                  Posted: March 31, 2014, 3:08 pm - IP Logged

                  The Original Power Play Selection Method

                  Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
                  Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
                  Use at your own risk.

                  Order is a Subset of Chaos
                  Knowledge is Beyond Belief
                  Wisdom is Not Censored
                  Douglas Paul Smallish
                  Jehocifer

                    JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
                    The Quantum Master
                    West Concord, MN
                    United States
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                    Posted: April 1, 2014, 2:35 pm - IP Logged

                    So, everyone had some time to see the posts we made.

                    Good, let's move on.

                    First, let's go over Odds and how to calculate Odds.

                    Don't worry; this is not going to be a mental mathematical juggernaut.

                    All we will be using are: add, subtract, multiply, divide and a fancy word, ratio, meaning to relate one number to another.

                    Odds is basically defined as the ratio of Success (S) to Failure (F).

                    S is the total possible outcomes or probability an event will occur and F is the total possible outcomes or probability an event will not occur.

                    It can be expressed as: S to F, S : F or 1 in (F / S).

                    The last expression, 1 in (F / S), is the one used by most lottery establishments.

                    There are two ways we can find S and F.

                    If we know something about the conditions by which selections are made, we can calculate the odds.

                    We can also estimate the odds based on the samples we get and see how close the sampled odds match with the calculated odds.

                    The calculation is pretty simple.

                    We'll use a very basic example to start.

                    Let's say we have 2 balls and they are labeled A and B.

                    We place them in an opaque jar with a small opening to reach inside, sorry, No Peeking, and a lid.

                    Now, put the balls in, cover it with a lid and shake.

                    Open the jar, and without looking inside, pick a ball.

                    What are the odds you'll select ball A?

                    Simple, there is 1 ball A and 1 ball B; the odds are S = 1 A ball and F = 1 B ball, so, S to F is 1 to 1.

                    The odds of picking ball A is 1 to 1.

                    It's like a coin flip, either we select A or we don't.

                    We could have labeled the balls H and T to stand for Heads and Tails.

                    There are some studies that suggest a coin toss is not very well balanced due to the weight of the coin not being even.

                    We can also change the odds of our selection to give A or B more probability of being selected.

                    Just simply add more balls and label more of them A or B.

                    We'll add 100 balls to the jar; 20 of them will be labeled A and 80 of them will be labeled B.

                    Now, what are the odds of selecting an A ball?

                    Again, simple, S = 20 A balls and F = 80 B Balls.

                    The odds of selecting an A ball is 20 to 80.

                    This can be reduced to 1 to 4.

                    Or, 1 in (80 / 20); which becomes 1 in 4.

                    Likewise, if we want to know what are the odds of selecting a B ball, then S = 80 B balls and F = 20 A balls.

                    This gives the odds as 80 to 20 which reduces to 4 to 1.

                    Or, 1 in (20 / 80); which comes out to 1 in 0.25.

                    In lottery speak, the odds matrix would look like the following:

                    BallOdds
                    A1 in 4
                    B1 in 0.25


                    Simple, nothing to mathemagical about it.

                    However, how do we relate and expand this to Power Plays and Megapliers?

                    Well, A and B could have been assigned a multiplier, like A = x2 and B = x3.

                    At this point it should become clear we need to add some more labels to other balls.

                    For this we will use labels: A, B, C and D.

                    It doesn't matter at the moment what each is assigned what multiplier.

                    We're just going to look at how we find odds with 4 different selections.

                    With this odds calculation we will add 10 A balls, 20 B balls, 30 C balls and 40 D balls, for a total of 100 balls.

                    So, what are the odds of selecting an A ball?

                    Well, S = 10 A balls and F = 20 B balls + 30 C balls + 40 D balls which becomes F = 90 B, C and D balls total.

                    The odds of selecting an A ball is 10 to 90 or 1 to 9.

                    In lottery speak, it's 1 in (90 / 10) or 1 in 9.

                    We can continue finding odds with the B ball.

                    It's odds calculation is S = 20 B balls and F = 10 A balls + 30 C balls + 40 D balls or F = 80 A, C and D balls total.

                    The odds of selecting a B ball is 20 to 80 or 1 to 4.

                    Lottery speak it's 1 in (80 / 20) or 1 in 4.

                    Continuing this for C and D balls, we get the following odds matrix:

                    BallOdds
                    A1 in 9
                    B1 in 4
                    C1 in 2.333
                    D1 in 1.5


                    These are calculated odds.

                    Next we will look at sampled odds.

                    Continues...

                    Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
                    Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
                    Use at your own risk.

                    Order is a Subset of Chaos
                    Knowledge is Beyond Belief
                    Wisdom is Not Censored
                    Douglas Paul Smallish
                    Jehocifer

                      JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
                      The Quantum Master
                      West Concord, MN
                      United States
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                      Posted: April 1, 2014, 3:14 pm - IP Logged

                      Sampled odds are determined the same way as calculated odds, however, we use the frequency of each selection to estimate the odds.

                      If we used the same 100 balls with 10 A balls, 20 B balls, 30 C balls and 40 D balls, then made repeated selections and putting back in to the mix the ball we select, we can track the frequency of our selections for each A, B, C and D picks.

                      Let's say to keep this simple we sampled 100 selections and we got the following selection counts for each A, B, C and D picks.

                      BallFrequency
                      A8
                      B24
                      C37
                      D31

                       

                      We can estimate the odds of selecting an A ball using these frequencies and see how close it compares to the calculated odds.

                      In this case, S = 8 A balls and F = 24 B balls + 37 C balls + 31 D balls or F = 92 B, C and D balls total.

                      The estimated odds for selecting an A ball is 8 to 92 or 2 to 23.

                      In lottery speak, it's 1 in (92 / 8) or 1 in 11.5.

                      Completing the odds matrix, it becomes the following:

                      BallOdds
                      A1 in 11.5
                      B1 in 3.167
                      C1 in 1.703
                      D1 in 2.226


                      How does this compare to the calculated?

                      See below

                      BallOdds
                      A1 in 9
                      B1 in 4
                      C1 in 2.333
                      D1 in 1.5


                      Pretty close, at the moment, C and D are a swapped in relative magnitude, but overall, it's within reason.

                      We'll look at Power Play and Megaplier odds in a bit.

                      Continues...

                      Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
                      Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
                      Use at your own risk.

                      Order is a Subset of Chaos
                      Knowledge is Beyond Belief
                      Wisdom is Not Censored
                      Douglas Paul Smallish
                      Jehocifer

                        JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
                        The Quantum Master
                        West Concord, MN
                        United States
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                        Posted: April 1, 2014, 4:00 pm - IP Logged

                        As of today, 2014-04-01, the sample frequencies for the Power Play and Megaplier is as follows:

                        Power PlayFrequency
                        213
                        34
                        42
                        51

                         

                        MegaplierFrequency
                        27
                        317
                        49
                        513



                        Their estimated odds can be compared to the stated odds we posted earlier.

                        Power PlayOddsEstimated Odds
                        21 in 21 in 0.54
                        31 in 3.331 in 4
                        41 in 101 in 9
                        51 in 101 in 19

                         

                        MegaplierOddsEstimated Odds
                        21 in 7.51 in 5.57
                        31 in 3.751 in 1.71
                        41 in 51 in 4.11
                        51 in 2.51 in 2.54

                         

                        Huh, What'r the Odds?


                        You seem to be justified in suspecting something in the Power Play.

                        We see x5's coming shortly.

                        If not, we'll have to finger something out.

                        Red Eyes

                        Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
                        Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
                        Use at your own risk.

                        Order is a Subset of Chaos
                        Knowledge is Beyond Belief
                        Wisdom is Not Censored
                        Douglas Paul Smallish
                        Jehocifer

                          JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
                          The Quantum Master
                          West Concord, MN
                          United States
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                          Posted: April 1, 2014, 6:20 pm - IP Logged

                          The other odd thing about the Power Play is we cannot find any combination of positive, non-zero integers that can match or even come close to matching the stated odds.

                           

                          Power PlayOddsStated Odds
                          21 in (B + C + D) / A1 in 2
                          31 in (A + C + D) / B1 in 3.33
                          41 in (A + B + D) / C1 in 10
                          51 in (A + B + C) / D1 in 10

                           

                          A, B, C, D can be any value {1, 2, 3, ...}

                          Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
                          Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
                          Use at your own risk.

                          Order is a Subset of Chaos
                          Knowledge is Beyond Belief
                          Wisdom is Not Censored
                          Douglas Paul Smallish
                          Jehocifer

                            JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
                            The Quantum Master
                            West Concord, MN
                            United States
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                            December 7, 2001
                            3675 Posts
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                            Posted: April 3, 2014, 7:00 am - IP Logged

                            2 again last night, 2014-04-02.

                            yep, the decepti-con is in full force.

                            we are glad we don't play this game.

                            Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
                            Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
                            Use at your own risk.

                            Order is a Subset of Chaos
                            Knowledge is Beyond Belief
                            Wisdom is Not Censored
                            Douglas Paul Smallish
                            Jehocifer

                              JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
                              The Quantum Master
                              West Concord, MN
                              United States
                              Member #21
                              December 7, 2001
                              3675 Posts
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                              Posted: April 3, 2014, 7:03 am - IP Logged

                              If you're going to play a multiplier game, Mega Millions is the way to go.

                              Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
                              Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
                              Use at your own risk.

                              Order is a Subset of Chaos
                              Knowledge is Beyond Belief
                              Wisdom is Not Censored
                              Douglas Paul Smallish
                              Jehocifer