Happyland United States Member #146344 September 1, 2013 1129 Posts Offline

Posted: March 27, 2014, 8:12 pm - IP Logged

No manipulations necessarily.....the 2 ball is programmed to hit 50% of the time and the 3 ball about 30% of the time. So 80% of all the time, your winnings will be multiplied by 3 or less. That's without any interference. Not such a great bet after all

The fact they won't even go past $2 million for second prize is just sad.

If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does. If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

United States Member #153847 March 27, 2014 6 Posts Offline

Posted: March 29, 2014, 9:33 am - IP Logged

Ok, I have a question on the charts posted by JADELottery ... tell me if I am seeing or figuring these numbers and odds correctly.

With PowerPlay it seems pretty clear ... there are a total of 10 numbers in the digital mix with only one 5 and one 4 ... three 3s and five 2s for a total of 10 numbers.

Now with Megaplier ... there are a total of 15 numbers in the digital mix ... this is where I am getting mixed up or don't understand the odds. The number 5 has odds of "1 in 2.5" ... am I correct in assuming that there are many 5s in the digital mix ... more 5s than 4s ... since 4 has odds of "1 in 5". How many 5s should be in those 15 numbers?

If this is true then the MM would still be the better play for the extra dollar in another way with more chances at getting the 5X.

Am I looking at this right ???

Additional: In a couple of my earlier posts on this subject I incorrectly said "1 to 5" when I meant "2 to 5" and also said the extra dollar was "1 million" and I meant "2 million". The time limit was up to correct those posts but I figured people knew what I meant.

GLTA

... as I look at the Megaplier odds again, I am not sure where I got that there are a total of 15 numbers in the digital mix ... maybe there are only 10 numbers total.

Happyland United States Member #146344 September 1, 2013 1129 Posts Offline

Posted: March 29, 2014, 2:28 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Callahan on March 29, 2014

Ok, I have a question on the charts posted by JADELottery ... tell me if I am seeing or figuring these numbers and odds correctly.

With PowerPlay it seems pretty clear ... there are a total of 10 numbers in the digital mix with only one 5 and one 4 ... three 3s and five 2s for a total of 10 numbers.

Now with Megaplier ... there are a total of 15 numbers in the digital mix ... this is where I am getting mixed up or don't understand the odds. The number 5 has odds of "1 in 2.5" ... am I correct in assuming that there are many 5s in the digital mix ... more 5s than 4s ... since 4 has odds of "1 in 5". How many 5s should be in those 15 numbers?

If this is true then the MM would still be the better play for the extra dollar in another way with more chances at getting the 5X.

Am I looking at this right ???

Additional: In a couple of my earlier posts on this subject I incorrectly said "1 to 5" when I meant "2 to 5" and also said the extra dollar was "1 million" and I meant "2 million". The time limit was up to correct those posts but I figured people knew what I meant.

GLTA

... as I look at the Megaplier odds again, I am not sure where I got that there are a total of 15 numbers in the digital mix ... maybe there are only 10 numbers total.

The charts he posted are the ones posted by the lottery. Go back to my post here: http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/273839/3540130. You will see the Megaplier stated in terms of 15. There are six 5s, three 4s, four 3s, and two 2s. The lottery simplifies this to terms of odds of "1 in...." by just dividing.

MM is still the better play per dollar, you have to think of it by cost because it's not really fair to compare a $2 ticket to a $3 one. The current Power Play actually returns less than the old one (even though both have/had the same 2nd prize $2 million).

If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does. If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

San Leandro, very near Oakland and San Francisco. United States Member #148590 November 5, 2013 98 Posts Offline

Posted: March 29, 2014, 5:02 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Callahan on March 27, 2014

Hi ... just joined LP today ... been reading for some time. I have been waiting for someone to make a comment about the PB Power Play number almost always being a "2". I don't usually play the extra dollar but for some reason I did for the whole month of March. Seems to be kind of a waste playing the extra dollar.

Is PB controlling that in someway or are there more 2s than 4s and 5s in the mix of numbers. Is each number from 1 to 5 equal in the draw or are there more 2s than any other number. I noticed this earlier ( a few years ago) with Mega Millions I think but it could have also been the PB ... the 2s always seem to be drawn much more than 4s or 5s.

Of course the states save money with the 2 being drawn but is this looking somewhat suspicious to anyone and is the extra dollar really worth it?

This month (March) with PB drawings, the 2 has has appeared 6 out of 8 draws and since PB has made the change back to the Power Play with 19 drawings so far, 2 has come out 12 times with 3 coming out 4 times ... 5 has only been out once. This doesn't seem right to me, something being controlled here or are there more 2s mixed in with the total numbers from 1 to 5. I am not sure about that and maybe someone here also finds this interesting and has a possible answer.

Thanks ... I don't think I will be playing the extra dollar on PB anymore, just on Mega Millions.

Good luck to all ...

Yes, I also keep playing at basical about 2~4 games every, mostly at two games at every time!

It is not so easy to follow up in chasing its numbers, even I have marked them in my note book with simple stastics. The mega is the most important one (if not included in the game). You will never win big rewrds, if there is no mega number in your game!

It is so easy to loss!

Thanks for your kindness to visit my posting; and left me your warmness for my slow chewing!

Those who wants to win lottery is normal; and it is abnormal if anybody does not want to win!

NEW YORK United States Member #90535 April 29, 2010 11978 Posts Offline

Posted: March 30, 2014, 10:13 am - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Callahan on March 27, 2014

Hi ... just joined LP today ... been reading for some time. I have been waiting for someone to make a comment about the PB Power Play number almost always being a "2". I don't usually play the extra dollar but for some reason I did for the whole month of March. Seems to be kind of a waste playing the extra dollar.

Is PB controlling that in someway or are there more 2s than 4s and 5s in the mix of numbers. Is each number from 1 to 5 equal in the draw or are there more 2s than any other number. I noticed this earlier ( a few years ago) with Mega Millions I think but it could have also been the PB ... the 2s always seem to be drawn much more than 4s or 5s.

Of course the states save money with the 2 being drawn but is this looking somewhat suspicious to anyone and is the extra dollar really worth it?

This month (March) with PB drawings, the 2 has has appeared 6 out of 8 draws and since PB has made the change back to the Power Play with 19 drawings so far, 2 has come out 12 times with 3 coming out 4 times ... 5 has only been out once. This doesn't seem right to me, something being controlled here or are there more 2s mixed in with the total numbers from 1 to 5. I am not sure about that and maybe someone here also finds this interesting and has a possible answer.

Thanks ... I don't think I will be playing the extra dollar on PB anymore, just on Mega Millions.

West Concord, MN United States Member #21 December 7, 2001 3675 Posts Offline

Posted: April 1, 2014, 3:14 pm - IP Logged

Sampled odds are determined the same way as calculated odds, however, we use the frequency of each selection to estimate the odds.

If we used the same 100 balls with 10 A balls, 20 B balls, 30 C balls and 40 D balls, then made repeated selections and putting back in to the mix the ball we select, we can track the frequency of our selections for each A, B, C and D picks.

Let's say to keep this simple we sampled 100 selections and we got the following selection counts for each A, B, C and D picks.

Ball

Frequency

A

8

B

24

C

37

D

31

We can estimate the odds of selecting an A ball using these frequencies and see how close it compares to the calculated odds.

In this case, S = 8 A balls and F = 24 B balls + 37 C balls + 31 D balls or F = 92 B, C and D balls total.

The estimated odds for selecting an A ball is 8 to 92 or 2 to 23.

In lottery speak, it's 1 in (92 / 8) or 1 in 11.5.

Completing the odds matrix, it becomes the following:

Ball

Odds

A

1 in 11.5

B

1 in 3.167

C

1 in 1.703

D

1 in 2.226

How does this compare to the calculated?

See below

Ball

Odds

A

1 in 9

B

1 in 4

C

1 in 2.333

D

1 in 1.5

Pretty close, at the moment, C and D are a swapped in relative magnitude, but overall, it's within reason.

We'll look at Power Play and Megaplier odds in a bit.

Continues...

Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only. Any gain or loss is your responsibility. Use at your own risk.

Order is a Subset of Chaos Knowledge is Beyond Belief Wisdom is Not Censored Douglas Paul Smallish Jehocifer

West Concord, MN United States Member #21 December 7, 2001 3675 Posts Offline

Posted: April 1, 2014, 6:20 pm - IP Logged

The other odd thing about the Power Play is we cannot find any combination of positive, non-zero integers that can match or even come close to matching the stated odds.

Power Play

Odds

Stated Odds

2

1 in (B + C + D) / A

1 in 2

3

1 in (A + C + D) / B

1 in 3.33

4

1 in (A + B + D) / C

1 in 10

5

1 in (A + B + C) / D

1 in 10

A, B, C, D can be any value {1, 2, 3, ...}

Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only. Any gain or loss is your responsibility. Use at your own risk.

Order is a Subset of Chaos Knowledge is Beyond Belief Wisdom is Not Censored Douglas Paul Smallish Jehocifer