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According to my retailer there is a new national lottery game comingPrev TopicNext Topic
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* In hot pursuit of $ *White Shores- California
United States
Member #136,471
December 12, 2012
7,040 Posts
Offline -
CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN
A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)
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* In hot pursuit of $ *White Shores- California
United States
Member #136,471
December 12, 2012
7,040 Posts
Offline -
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If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1
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I just heard some very disturbing news, compliments of the South Dakota Lottery.
- The Monopoly Millionaires' Club jackpot is going to be capped at $25 million
- Jackpot amount is annuitized
Now, let me start by saying the previous jackpot cap I mentioned ($50 million) was published in the lottery "standard" magazine less than a month ago. Other sources agreed with this figure. The "lump sum" thing came straight from a lottery director. So this is pretty blindsiding to say the least.
The ONLY reason I can think of capping the jackpot this low is so as to not detract attention from Mega Millions and Powerball. Or maybe they surveyed players and discovered that fewer than anticipated would be interested, hence lowering sales' estimates. (That or someone in the MUSL states has gone bipolar with greed. I am definitely contacting my lottery director about this!)
Otherwise, let's state the obvious: this is stupid. Starting jackpot at $15 million and rolling to $25 million.....that's a whopping......3 rolls to hit the cap. What's the point of having a rolling jackpot then? At least with starting at $25 million and going to $50 million, you have 6 potential rolls. I know I know, they will say you play for the $1 million prizes. But if that's the case why bother having a jackpot?
If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1
- The Monopoly Millionaires' Club jackpot is going to be capped at $25 million
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Finally, the matrix! I got ahold of it sooner than I expected and those of you who subscribe to other lottery sites may have already seen it. Most likely it will start trickling into press release(s) of one of the larger state lotteries this weekend. I thought I would go ahead and post it along with some additions.
My initial confusion with the 5/52 + 1/28 was previously resolved based on a pamphlet I read, which showed a sample ticket and playslip. What I read today actually corrects this. It turns out that both 5/52 and 1/28 are numbered matrices; however, 1/28 represents a property. I erroneously posted that the ticket would look like "01-02-03-04-05 + Park Place" and while this is technically true, more than likely the ticket will simply have a numbered representation of the property rather than/in addition to the title of the piece itself. Just thought I would clear that up. The 1/28 isn't going to be on the playslip so not something to dabble about. That being said, this game indeed will be quite complex for some players, which could be a bad thing.
As of the latest information, the number of guaranteed $1 million prizes will start at 10. This will increase with each roll based on sales in the prize pool. The jackpot is paid in 30 graduated payments (annuity option), but all the other prizes are lump sum only (including Club prizes). Now, what's interesting is that the Club prizes share the same tier as the Jackpot (!), but this makes sense given the Club prizes are only awarded when a jackpot is won. I think it's strange to be generalized based on jackpot odds though, since the individual odds of winning a Club prize will vary by the number of players and prizes.
See below for odds and pool shares. The matrix came from the lottery so I haven't checked the odds but it looks correct.
Tier 5/52 Matches 1/28 Matches Prize Odds Probability Est. EV % of Sales % of Prize Pool 1 5 1 Jackpot/Club Prize 72,770,880.00 0.0000000137 $0.21+ 32.22% 64.43% 2 5 0 $100,000 2,695,217.78 0.0000003710 $0.04 0.74% 1.48% 3 4 1 $20,000 309,663.32 0.0000032293 $0.06 1.29% 2.58% 4 4 0 $500 11,469.01 0.0000871915 $0.04 0.87% 1.74% 5 3 1 $250 6,731.81 0.0001485485 $0.04 0.74% 1.49% 6 2 1 $25 448.79 0.0022282136 $0.06 1.11% 2.23% 7 3 0 $20 249.33 0.0040107488 $0.08 1.60% 3.21% 8 1 1 $10 81.60 0.0122549020 $0.12 2.45% 4.90% 9 0 1 $7 47.44 0.0210792580 $0.15 2.95% 5.90% 10 2 0 $5 16.61 0.0602046960 $0.30 6.02% 12.03% - - - Overall 10.00 0.1000171724 $1.10+ 50.00% 100.00% Keep in mind that the EV calculation is very rough....it will be higher due to Club prizes and second-chance opportunities. It's just a good starting point and most people here don't care about it anyway.
The document I saw also had more info about the TV game show but I won't bother to regurgitate it here. Bottom line is that entries are based on values of the 10 Monopoly property groups, and there is no cash option to take instead of going on the show.My initial impressions.......the prize distribution is OK considering the lousy payout and in some respects is better than other national games. Unfortunately, only 17.78% of sales go towards fixed prizes, which means over time the average player will lose over 80% of their $5 wager.
I can understand such a rake on a $1 or $2 game, but for $5/ticket I imagine that players will expect more.Monopoly Millionaires' Club and its separate Club Prizes drawings will use random number generators.
If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1
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That's what I read in an article (different magazine), but the rules do not explicitly say. It only says that every ticket played in the jackpot-winning drawing is eligible, and that a separate drawing will be conducted. Thinking about it logically, if they have 10 Club prizes to give away, then in order for them to give them all away they would have to choose from the pool of existing tickets rather than via genuine number picking. The rules do say that each ticket will be incremented with a unique transactional number that will be used for the Club prize drawing.
One thing is for sure, it is quite confusing having the prize on the same tier as the jackpot. I can only imagine a retailer having to explain it to players.
I am surprised they are going the route of RNG for the main drawing.....it makes sense for the bonus draw if they are using the pool of tickets but wow.
If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1
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In this case, the second drawing occurs only if the jackpot is won. I agree, clarification is needed, and I hope they put together a thorough demonstration.
I crunched some numbers based on one of the larger state's projected Monopoly sales. Using this to gauge estimates for the other participating states, it is possible that the game could roll many times without a jackpot winner. This is what worries me about the low jackpot cap. High jackpots fuel higher sales, so if you have low jackpots you will have low sales....which in turn increases the time between wins. Players could get bored quickly. It doesn't do any good to have dozens of Club prizes if nobody is playing because of the weeny jackpot. How many retailers advertise second prizes? Like I said before, why bother with a jackpot if it's going to play such an insignificant role. (Let it be known if not already obvious: I wasn't asked to be on the subcommittee
)If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1
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