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Are Mega Millions sales really that bad now?

Topic closed. 55 replies. Last post 2 years ago by Stack47.

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Kentucky
United States
Member #32652
February 14, 2006
7295 Posts
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Posted: October 26, 2014, 4:16 am - IP Logged

WOW! You guys really get into the statistics!  I don't know how to do all that. I just buy a ticket every now and then. And I only buy ONE. I do invest in the megaplyer or power up. I don't care how much it is because I know any win would be awesome :)

 

If the jackpot is so high that it's all the talk on the news and at work and etc., then I make sure I don't miss buying at least one ticket. I'd rather not win if it's so high unless I have the option to remain anonymous. That's not an option here in Georgia, so I go 2 minutes across the Savannah River and grab a ticket in South Carolina where you CAN be anon. The last hue jackpot was won in Lexington, SC and the guy remained anonymous. He said his wife called him and asked him to pick up some hot dog buns so he pulled over and got some gas, hot dog buns, and a lottery ticket.  Best call his wife ever made LOL! What got me is, it's the same gas station I go to every friggen week to get gas and lottery tickets because I get off of I-20 there to go to work. So yes I was freaking out when they said it was THAT gas station that sold the ticket.  PLUS, I couldn't find my ticket!! It was in my locker at work! LOL!!

When someone asked if Mega Millions sales are really bad and then gives false information, I decided to check the numbers. I agree with you that how much is bet on jackpots especially under $300 million is useless information, but apparently that's all they have to talk about.

    pickone4me's avatar - 021414tvlies zpsa453b327.jpg
    Wisconsin
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    Member #104962
    January 23, 2011
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    Posted: October 26, 2014, 8:51 am - IP Logged

    I live in California. I need some of that luck, it seems the central valley and bay areas are winning the most. SoCal needs love.

    Sorry dude, that state has had more then enough wins, time for other states to win ( no I don't mean mine, I don't play the MM or PB just to clarify that again )

      Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
      Zeta Reticuli Star System
      United States
      Member #30470
      January 17, 2006
      10344 Posts
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      Posted: October 26, 2014, 11:13 am - IP Logged

      Sorry dude, that state has had more then enough wins, time for other states to win ( no I don't mean mine, I don't play the MM or PB just to clarify that again )

      Alright then, NY or Florida just to hear you whine some more.

      If you don't even play the game why are so envious of California?

      Bang Head

      This is from the Powerball website FAQ page (also applies to MM), read on:

      HOW COME THE ONLY JACKPOT WINNERS ARE FROM THE [EAST - WEST - NORTH - SOUTH - CITIES - RURAL AREAS]?
      HOW COME ONLY [WHITE, BLACK, TALL, SKINNY, YOUNG, OLD] PEOPLE WIN?

      Powerball is a random game that knows nothing about who buys a ticket or where a ticket is purchased. There really is no white/black/old/young/rich/poor, etc.] button on the machine. If one draws a box around some group of players (eg., state border, hair color, shoe size), then that group of players will win in proportion to their play. If the defined group buys 10% of the tickets, then they will win 10% of the prizes - on average and over a reasonable period of time. But that does NOT mean that you have a better chance of winning in a bigger box - you then just have more folks to play against.

      The Law of Large numbers explains how random expectations become truer as the number of occurrences increases. So, if players in a particular group buy 8.6754% of the tickets, then we will find, if the number of occurrences (prizes awarded) are large enough, that those players win 8.6754% of the prizes. This is definitely true for the low-tier prizes where there are large numbers of winners. With 12 to 15 jackpot winners in a year, we would expect that these percentages can get out of sync with sales from time to time, but as the number of jackpot winners continues to increase, we will find that the percentage numbers move closer and closer to being the same number. Try this experiment. Flip a coin four times. You might get 75% heads - or even 100%. You would not expect to get excited about that. With only ten flips, it can happen. But then flip it 1,000 times (no cheating). You will come much closer to the statistical expectation of 50% heads. If you hit 75% heads after 1,000 flips, then something is wrong. It really does NOT make any difference where you buy your ticket. It is you a against the draw machine.


      More people here should visit those FAQ pages but when their m.o. is "Don't counter my opinion with facts....."

      MAVEN UNIVERSITY
      OPINION OVER KNOWLEDGE

      Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

      Lep

      There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

        pickone4me's avatar - 021414tvlies zpsa453b327.jpg
        Wisconsin
        United States
        Member #104962
        January 23, 2011
        1075 Posts
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        Posted: October 26, 2014, 11:28 am - IP Logged

        Alright then, NY or Florida just to hear you whine some more.

        If you don't even play the game why are so envious of California?

        Bang Head

        This is from the Powerball website FAQ page (also applies to MM), read on:

        HOW COME THE ONLY JACKPOT WINNERS ARE FROM THE [EAST - WEST - NORTH - SOUTH - CITIES - RURAL AREAS]?
        HOW COME ONLY [WHITE, BLACK, TALL, SKINNY, YOUNG, OLD] PEOPLE WIN?

        Powerball is a random game that knows nothing about who buys a ticket or where a ticket is purchased. There really is no white/black/old/young/rich/poor, etc.] button on the machine. If one draws a box around some group of players (eg., state border, hair color, shoe size), then that group of players will win in proportion to their play. If the defined group buys 10% of the tickets, then they will win 10% of the prizes - on average and over a reasonable period of time. But that does NOT mean that you have a better chance of winning in a bigger box - you then just have more folks to play against.

        The Law of Large numbers explains how random expectations become truer as the number of occurrences increases. So, if players in a particular group buy 8.6754% of the tickets, then we will find, if the number of occurrences (prizes awarded) are large enough, that those players win 8.6754% of the prizes. This is definitely true for the low-tier prizes where there are large numbers of winners. With 12 to 15 jackpot winners in a year, we would expect that these percentages can get out of sync with sales from time to time, but as the number of jackpot winners continues to increase, we will find that the percentage numbers move closer and closer to being the same number. Try this experiment. Flip a coin four times. You might get 75% heads - or even 100%. You would not expect to get excited about that. With only ten flips, it can happen. But then flip it 1,000 times (no cheating). You will come much closer to the statistical expectation of 50% heads. If you hit 75% heads after 1,000 flips, then something is wrong. It really does NOT make any difference where you buy your ticket. It is you a against the draw machine.


        More people here should visit those FAQ pages but when their m.o. is "Don't counter my opinion with facts....."

        MAVEN UNIVERSITY
        OPINION OVER KNOWLEDGE

        Bang Head No, I am not envious...The powerball website FAQ page is garbage,  it is just liberal spin to cover for those states that win too often...I have read that page way back ago, I take it with a grain of salt!

        Now bug off, already!

          Romancandle's avatar - moon
          Upacreek
          United States
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          December 8, 2012
          428 Posts
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          Posted: October 26, 2014, 11:46 am - IP Logged

          Lotto Report.

          Ahhh... thanks for posting some facts to put this back in perspective.

          It still "feels" like MM grows too slowly draw to draw, I don't know why, but it just does for me.

          -RC

            rcbbuckeye's avatar - Lottery-043.jpg
            Texas
            United States
            Member #55889
            October 23, 2007
            5588 Posts
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            Posted: October 26, 2014, 11:51 am - IP Logged

            CT.....

            Again, you are letting facts get in the way of lack of common sense. You are pi$$ing up a rope trying to convince pickmynose or the others that higher populations have more winning tics. If they don't believe the PB's website, they are simply too closed minded. Actually calling PB FAQ page liberal garbage tells you everything you need to know. LOL.

            I spit coffee out in laughter this morning when I read jjprince's comment that California has their "cheat codes" ready.

            Really???

            CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

            A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)

              Theox-'s avatar - DAylUYw

              United States
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              November 9, 2013
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              Posted: October 26, 2014, 11:57 am - IP Logged

              I don't understand everyone screaming conspiracy. Logic would dictate that more players being in an area would cause more winners to be in that area. The lottery is random, California just has more players than other states do.

                Romancandle's avatar - moon
                Upacreek
                United States
                Member #136306
                December 8, 2012
                428 Posts
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                Posted: October 26, 2014, 11:58 am - IP Logged

                Bang Head No, I am not envious...The powerball website FAQ page is garbage,  it is just liberal spin to cover for those states that win too often...I have read that page way back ago, I take it with a grain of salt!

                Now bug off, already!

                I see South Dakota got in on some action last night- one # away from taking it all...

                Now how did that happen?  Such a small population in that state... the lotto folks must be listening to you... reprogramming the machine world

                LOL

                It's inevitable Mr. Pickone4me...

                -RC

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                  United States
                  Member #135804
                  November 29, 2012
                  317 Posts
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                  Posted: October 26, 2014, 12:04 pm - IP Logged

                  You really ought to look at the sale figures before saying "The sales at the start of a run are much lower even with more states". The sales at the start of this right are HIGHER than the last two runs. Where are you getting your figures?

                  Once again, selecting data (2 data points) to support your argument. All anyone has to look at is the rest of the year, which you seemingly failed to draw attention to, or 2013 and 2012. On top of that, your statement doesn't even disprove what I am saying.

                    pickone4me's avatar - 021414tvlies zpsa453b327.jpg
                    Wisconsin
                    United States
                    Member #104962
                    January 23, 2011
                    1075 Posts
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                    Posted: October 26, 2014, 12:31 pm - IP Logged

                    CT.....

                    Again, you are letting facts get in the way of lack of common sense. You are pi$$ing up a rope trying to convince pickmynose or the others that higher populations have more winning tics. If they don't believe the PB's website, they are simply too closed minded. Actually calling PB FAQ page liberal garbage tells you everything you need to know. LOL.

                    I spit coffee out in laughter this morning when I read jjprince's comment that California has their "cheat codes" ready.

                    Really???

                    Alright, listen up!

                    Here is part of the FAQ

                    Powerball is a random game that knows nothing about who buys a ticket or where a ticket is purchased.

                    If the defined group buys 10% of the tickets, then they will win 10% of the prizes - on average and over a reasonable period of time.

                    Then it is not truely random.

                    Commonsense, and facts, don't apply to lottery games.

                    The more times the same state, or states win, a small minority of people are going to notice, and wonder WTF is going on! 

                    Some need to wake up, and question things.

                    If one actually reads the frigging FAQ, it is very contradictory.

                    If you want to resort to insults, because I notice something that you're too closed minded to notice, or want to think about, that is YOUR problem, not mine.

                      Poo Nanny's avatar - 2649029

                      United States
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                      March 30, 2012
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                      Posted: October 26, 2014, 1:27 pm - IP Logged

                      Sales were $44,498,322 for last night compared to the 3/14/2014 sales of $43,702,292 for a $240 million jackpot. And is more than the $36,816,769 in sales for a $230 million jackpot on 11/29/2013. The $230 jackpot was increased to $270 million and the $230 jackpot went to $257 million. It sure looks to me like the sales for last night's $224 jackpot were HIGHER than larger jackpots and jackpot increases were about the same.

                      "The current Mega Millions prize is on it's 18th draw and about two years ago, that amount of draws with no winner would have most likely had a billion dollar prize amount."

                      Two years ago the jackpot was $21 million, but about a year ago the jackpot for the 18th draw $257 million. The record $636 million jackpot was hit on the 22nd drawing and the $400 million jackpot was hit on the 21st. And you're saying sales are poor because the jackpot isn't a $1 billion on 18th drawing?

                      "Is it lottery fatigue or is it the new matrix that people quit playing as much?"

                      Only for the players that ignore the facts to create an error filled conspiracy theory.

                      Well I guess I am wrong. No conspiracy theory from me. It just seems like the Jackpots are growing slower to me. One day I will get lucky and hit one...I hope before I am 80 and can't enjoy it as much

                        hearsetrax's avatar - 0118

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                        Posted: October 26, 2014, 2:40 pm - IP Logged

                        Well I guess I am wrong. No conspiracy theory from me. It just seems like the Jackpots are growing slower to me. One day I will get lucky and hit one...I hope before I am 80 and can't enjoy it as much

                        remember to count your few and many blessings and put your money down like every other dreamer

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                          California
                          United States
                          Member #141204
                          April 7, 2013
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                          Posted: October 26, 2014, 4:15 pm - IP Logged

                          CT.....

                          Again, you are letting facts get in the way of lack of common sense. You are pi$$ing up a rope trying to convince pickmynose or the others that higher populations have more winning tics. If they don't believe the PB's website, they are simply too closed minded. Actually calling PB FAQ page liberal garbage tells you everything you need to know. LOL.

                          I spit coffee out in laughter this morning when I read jjprince's comment that California has their "cheat codes" ready.

                          Really???

                          More tickets sold in one state means that state has a greater chance of winning. But no matter what state you live in, with one ticket, your odds of winning Mega Millions by matching 5 numbers plus the Mega number is the same as everyone else, 1 in 258,890,850. A simple concept but some people just can't grasp it.

                            helpmewin's avatar - dandy
                            u$a
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                            February 22, 2011
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                            Posted: October 26, 2014, 4:41 pm - IP Logged

                            WOW! You guys really get into the statistics!  I don't know how to do all that. I just buy a ticket every now and then. And I only buy ONE. I do invest in the megaplyer or power up. I don't care how much it is because I know any win would be awesome :)

                             

                            If the jackpot is so high that it's all the talk on the news and at work and etc., then I make sure I don't miss buying at least one ticket. I'd rather not win if it's so high unless I have the option to remain anonymous. That's not an option here in Georgia, so I go 2 minutes across the Savannah River and grab a ticket in South Carolina where you CAN be anon. The last hue jackpot was won in Lexington, SC and the guy remained anonymous. He said his wife called him and asked him to pick up some hot dog buns so he pulled over and got some gas, hot dog buns, and a lottery ticket.  Best call his wife ever made LOL! What got me is, it's the same gas station I go to every friggen week to get gas and lottery tickets because I get off of I-20 there to go to work. So yes I was freaking out when they said it was THAT gas station that sold the ticket.  PLUS, I couldn't find my ticket!! It was in my locker at work! LOL!!

                            I Agree!

                            Let it Snow Snowman

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                              Kentucky
                              United States
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                              February 14, 2006
                              7295 Posts
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                              Posted: October 26, 2014, 5:52 pm - IP Logged

                              Once again, selecting data (2 data points) to support your argument. All anyone has to look at is the rest of the year, which you seemingly failed to draw attention to, or 2013 and 2012. On top of that, your statement doesn't even disprove what I am saying.

                              "You're only looking at one drawing here or there."

                              I clearly compared the only three runs with jackpots over $200 million since the last matrix change.

                              "The sales at the start of a run are much lower even with more states."

                              Did you miss the memo saying there are now a possible 258,890,850 outcomes, sales for Friday were 44 million, about a 17% of chance of a winner, and the numbers on the tickets are only valid for the day of that drawing?

                              While a portion of the amount of sales is applied to the next drawing when there is no jackpot winner, all the combinations on tickets sold for previous drawings are invalid. From what I saw, sales on $15 million jackpots varied by almost $6 million, but sales were about the same over $100 million jackpots to the end of the run. Any drawing sales under $100 million has less than a 38% of having a jackpot winner and you're saying there is significance to jackpots at the start of a run that have about a 7% chance of having a winner. And probably a contributing factor to the start-up sales. 

                              "Once again, selecting data (2 data points) to support your argument."

                              The matrix changed on 10/19/2013 and I compared the three runs that went over $200 million with a 5/75 + 1/15 matrix and sales were about the same in each run. Ignoring the fact the PB matrix and the price of a ticket changed in 2012 doesn't make an argument about smaller sales any better. When this run is over the Friday MM ticket sales should slightly lower because of the Monopoly game.

                              One person actually believes one drawing sales of $44 million should have increased the jackpot from $226 million to $1 billion and another is surprised the jackpot wasn't won even though there was less than 20% of the possible combinations sold. When the jackpot gets to the point when a ticket buying frenzy kicks in, we'll see if ticket sales are really that bad.

                              By the way, the 18th drawing of a run that produced a $640 million jackpot in early 2012 before the matrix change had a $94 million jackpot on sales of $28,218,276 for that drawing. The 18th drawing in the current run had a $226 million jackpot on sales of $44,498,322 for that drawing.

                              Maybe you can explain the significance of ticket sales on drawing nights when there is less than 20% chance of a jackpot winning ticket.