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Are Mega Millions sales really that bad now?

Topic closed. 55 replies. Last post 2 years ago by Stack47.

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zinniagirl's avatar - flower avatar_0026.jpg
nc
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October 26, 2010
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Posted: October 30, 2014, 10:21 am - IP Logged

If the news ,ecia gets in on the act, extra people pkays which generates the 400+ jackpots overnight.   It's not people aren't playing, it's advertising to drawin those 'this is my first time playing' winners.

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    NY
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    Member #23835
    October 16, 2005
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    Posted: October 31, 2014, 1:00 pm - IP Logged

    "The sensible comparison, and what the OP appears to be asking, is whether or not more recent changes have resulted in slower sales."

    It says "really that bad now" which to me means terrible overall sale compared to another period of time. Current sales, October 2014 are $281.59 million compared to $167.1 million in October 2013 and $142.6 million in 2012. When someone asked "how bad", we should ask "compared to what" because the matrix change is just one-year-old. And now MM Friday sales are competing with the Monopoly game.

    "Ten years ago ticket sales on a $149 million jackpot were about the same as last Friday's $226 million jackpot."

    "And there's the proof. The game is offered to far more potential players than it was 10 years ago, but a jackpot  that's 50% higher doesn't generate significantly more sales."

    Where did you find those "far more potential players" because today PB and MM are both played in over 40 jurisdictions and most of your "more potential players" are those who played the other game 10 years ago. And based on what you're saying, I doubt you looked at the actual sales figures because in some areas sale appear to be up, but down in others.

    The state lotteries probably combine MM and PB sales and see if overall sales are up or down. We can't say "all things being equal, sales are either up or down" because things are not equal. Overall sales give the lotteries a better picture and it's not like either game is losing money.

    "Where did you find those "far more potential players"

    I found most of them in the 23 states that didn't sell MM until January 2010. You know that doubling the number of states selling tickets increases the number of  potential players, right? For the 10 starting jackpots before those states were added sales totaled about $154 million. The 10 starting jackpots immediately after adding those states had sales of about $183 million. The most recent 10 starting jackpots have racked up sales of about $163 million.

    "The state lotteries probably combine MM and PB sales and see if overall sales are up or down."

    How the states analyze things has nothing to do with the question being asked here, though the fact that the changes to MM weren't accompanied by a similar change to PB makes it obvious to most of us that they look at sales of individual games and try to maximize those sales. That strategy resulted in an increase in sales as jackpots grew bigger and faster for a while,  but those days are over.

    "Current sales, October 2014 are $281.59 million"

    And yet sales for September 2014 were about $192 million. Do you think that in only 30 days people just suddenly decided MM is a better product than it was based on the general attributes of the game, or do you suppose there might be a specific reason? The average jackpot offered in October was $178.5 million (not counting the current drawing), but the average for September was only $62.9 million. If you recognized what makes data relevant you'd realize that the current roll starting just before the beginning of September and continuing through all of October makes a comparison of two very different months useless for analyzing overall sales levels. The only meaningful comparison is between sales for similar jackpots.

    The 8 completed drawings in October started at $120 million ( the 12th drawing in the roll) and grew to $252 million (the 19th drawing). 2 1/2 years ago, the 3/3/2012 jackpot stood at $127 million on the 12th roll. The 8 drawings from that 12th roll through the 19th grew to $656 million. It took  only 5 drawings to equal the $281 million in sales for the 8 drawings in 10/2014, and total sales for the 8 drawings were 4 times as much.

    Of course it's easy to cherry pick one brief period with high sales, as you did with this October. The record MM jackpot was also higher than most 8 drawing periods, so let's go back a bit further. On 12/17/10 the jackpot was $123 million, starting a run of just 6 drawings that saw an increase to $380 million. 2 drawings less than this October, and an increase to 166% of the 10/28/14 jackpot.  The 6 drawing sales of about $544 million were almost double the sales for the 8 drawings of this October.

    That's the consistent trend when comparing similar jackpot runs from today with those from a few years ago. A bunch of changes over the past decade resulted in sales that increased to a peak before declining again. The overall data is indisputable.

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      Kentucky
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      February 14, 2006
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      Posted: November 2, 2014, 3:20 pm - IP Logged

      "Where did you find those "far more potential players"

      I found most of them in the 23 states that didn't sell MM until January 2010. You know that doubling the number of states selling tickets increases the number of  potential players, right? For the 10 starting jackpots before those states were added sales totaled about $154 million. The 10 starting jackpots immediately after adding those states had sales of about $183 million. The most recent 10 starting jackpots have racked up sales of about $163 million.

      "The state lotteries probably combine MM and PB sales and see if overall sales are up or down."

      How the states analyze things has nothing to do with the question being asked here, though the fact that the changes to MM weren't accompanied by a similar change to PB makes it obvious to most of us that they look at sales of individual games and try to maximize those sales. That strategy resulted in an increase in sales as jackpots grew bigger and faster for a while,  but those days are over.

      "Current sales, October 2014 are $281.59 million"

      And yet sales for September 2014 were about $192 million. Do you think that in only 30 days people just suddenly decided MM is a better product than it was based on the general attributes of the game, or do you suppose there might be a specific reason? The average jackpot offered in October was $178.5 million (not counting the current drawing), but the average for September was only $62.9 million. If you recognized what makes data relevant you'd realize that the current roll starting just before the beginning of September and continuing through all of October makes a comparison of two very different months useless for analyzing overall sales levels. The only meaningful comparison is between sales for similar jackpots.

      The 8 completed drawings in October started at $120 million ( the 12th drawing in the roll) and grew to $252 million (the 19th drawing). 2 1/2 years ago, the 3/3/2012 jackpot stood at $127 million on the 12th roll. The 8 drawings from that 12th roll through the 19th grew to $656 million. It took  only 5 drawings to equal the $281 million in sales for the 8 drawings in 10/2014, and total sales for the 8 drawings were 4 times as much.

      Of course it's easy to cherry pick one brief period with high sales, as you did with this October. The record MM jackpot was also higher than most 8 drawing periods, so let's go back a bit further. On 12/17/10 the jackpot was $123 million, starting a run of just 6 drawings that saw an increase to $380 million. 2 drawings less than this October, and an increase to 166% of the 10/28/14 jackpot.  The 6 drawing sales of about $544 million were almost double the sales for the 8 drawings of this October.

      That's the consistent trend when comparing similar jackpot runs from today with those from a few years ago. A bunch of changes over the past decade resulted in sales that increased to a peak before declining again. The overall data is indisputable.

      "And yet sales for September 2014 were about $192 million. Do you think that in only 30 days people just suddenly decided MM is a better product than it was based on the general attributes of the game, or do you suppose there might be a specific reason?"

      The last matrix change was just a year ago so monthly comparisons is all there is. And I already mentioned possible reasons why sales in one month were $91 million more than the previous month. Do have any actual sales statistics proving MM sales are "really that bad now"?

        zinniagirl's avatar - flower avatar_0026.jpg
        nc
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        Posted: November 2, 2014, 5:54 pm - IP Logged

        For those who think no one us playing, they dont hAve to stand in the lines I stand in just for one ticket.

          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
          mid-Ohio
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          Posted: November 2, 2014, 6:09 pm - IP Logged

          For those who think no one us playing, they dont hAve to stand in the lines I stand in just for one ticket.

          Standing in line to buy a MM or PB ticket ended for me when those games came to my state.  There aren't many states any more where one has to drive to a neighboring state to buy a ticket so there aren't any lines any more.

           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
             
                       Evil Looking       

            rcbbuckeye's avatar - Lottery-043.jpg
            Texas
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            October 23, 2007
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            Posted: November 2, 2014, 8:08 pm - IP Logged

            LOL. If I'm standing in line to buy my tics, it's because the person in front of me is buying cigs, or sending money by Western Union.

            CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

            A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)

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              NY
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              Posted: November 3, 2014, 11:04 am - IP Logged

              "And yet sales for September 2014 were about $192 million. Do you think that in only 30 days people just suddenly decided MM is a better product than it was based on the general attributes of the game, or do you suppose there might be a specific reason?"

              The last matrix change was just a year ago so monthly comparisons is all there is. And I already mentioned possible reasons why sales in one month were $91 million more than the previous month. Do have any actual sales statistics proving MM sales are "really that bad now"?

              "so monthly comparisons is all there is"

              Are you actually telling us that your ability to reason tells you that it's valid to compare sales for 2 months without regard to what the jackpots were?

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                Kentucky
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                Posted: November 3, 2014, 1:46 pm - IP Logged

                "so monthly comparisons is all there is"

                Are you actually telling us that your ability to reason tells you that it's valid to compare sales for 2 months without regard to what the jackpots were?

                I already compared three jackpot runs since the game changed and there was no significant difference so monthly sales is the only sales figure left to compare. The real problem here is as usual you're arguing for the sake of arguing presenting zero facts showing that MM sales are "really that bad now" and giving an accurate comparison.

                The current Mega Millions prize is on it's 18th draw and about two years ago, that amount of draws with no winner would have most likely had a billion dollar prize amount.

                They are asking if sales are "really that bad now" because they believe 18 draws without a jackpot two years ago would produce a jackpot four times higher. I doubt the average player knows the advertised jackpot prize changed because the amount of yearly payments. It's the advertised jackpot prize that creates higher sales regardless of the cash value and I already compared number of drawings and sales on $100 million plus jackpots two years and one year to now on page one. The record $636 million jackpot was hit on the 22nd drawing and the $400 million jackpot was hit on the 21st. And you're saying sales are poor because the jackpot isn't a $1 billion on 18th drawing?

                The number of drawings to create a $100 million jackpot and ticket sales on $100 million jackpots varied in 2012 so unless sales are at record highs for any drawing period or jackpot prize, they will always be lower. There is a huge difference comparing current sales to record highs or record lows and even more so when those record highs or record lows were made under a completely different set of circumstances.

                Can you say for a fact, all things being equal, "MM sales are really that bad now"?

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                  WV
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                  Posted: November 6, 2014, 8:17 pm - IP Logged

                  What happened to the Mega Millions sales? Last nights draw the prize amount was 226 million and with no winner it only increased to 252 million. That seems low to me when compared to the past drawings. The current Mega Millions prize is on it's 18th draw and about two years ago, that amount of draws with no winner would have most likely had a billion dollar prize amount. Is it lottery fatigue or is it the new matrix that people quit playing as much?

                  Ticket sales are quite a bit smaller then they were just as recently as 2012. The MM jackpot that was hit Tuesday for around 321 million was the result of 20 rollovers. Ticket sales for the drawing with an advertised JP of 321 million were a little more then $75 million. The 3/30/2012 jackpot of $640 million was hit after 18 rollovers. In 2012 there had been 14 rollovers and the JP was at 200 million and for that drawing there were over 66 million in ticket sales for that drawing. The past run had rolled 16 times and the JP was at 200 million and for that draw there were a little more then 39 million in ticket sales. That shows ticket sales for the same amount of 200 million were 60% of what they were 2 1/2 years ago. The 2012 run also after 16 rollovers the JP was at 290 million and ticket sales for that drawing were 111 million which is 36 million more then the 75 million for Tuesdays JP of 321 million. I beleive the new matrix might have something to do with it and also the fact that in the last couple of years that Jack Pots of over 200 million which used to be rare and make headlines are not that rare anymore.

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                    WV
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                    Posted: November 6, 2014, 9:11 pm - IP Logged

                    "You're only looking at one drawing here or there."

                    I clearly compared the only three runs with jackpots over $200 million since the last matrix change.

                    "The sales at the start of a run are much lower even with more states."

                    Did you miss the memo saying there are now a possible 258,890,850 outcomes, sales for Friday were 44 million, about a 17% of chance of a winner, and the numbers on the tickets are only valid for the day of that drawing?

                    While a portion of the amount of sales is applied to the next drawing when there is no jackpot winner, all the combinations on tickets sold for previous drawings are invalid. From what I saw, sales on $15 million jackpots varied by almost $6 million, but sales were about the same over $100 million jackpots to the end of the run. Any drawing sales under $100 million has less than a 38% of having a jackpot winner and you're saying there is significance to jackpots at the start of a run that have about a 7% chance of having a winner. And probably a contributing factor to the start-up sales. 

                    "Once again, selecting data (2 data points) to support your argument."

                    The matrix changed on 10/19/2013 and I compared the three runs that went over $200 million with a 5/75 + 1/15 matrix and sales were about the same in each run. Ignoring the fact the PB matrix and the price of a ticket changed in 2012 doesn't make an argument about smaller sales any better. When this run is over the Friday MM ticket sales should slightly lower because of the Monopoly game.

                    One person actually believes one drawing sales of $44 million should have increased the jackpot from $226 million to $1 billion and another is surprised the jackpot wasn't won even though there was less than 20% of the possible combinations sold. When the jackpot gets to the point when a ticket buying frenzy kicks in, we'll see if ticket sales are really that bad.

                    By the way, the 18th drawing of a run that produced a $640 million jackpot in early 2012 before the matrix change had a $94 million jackpot on sales of $28,218,276 for that drawing. The 18th drawing in the current run had a $226 million jackpot on sales of $44,498,322 for that drawing.

                    Maybe you can explain the significance of ticket sales on drawing nights when there is less than 20% chance of a jackpot winning ticket.

                    Stack you are right about that since the matrix changed there is not that much of a difference in ticket sales. But for the early 2012 run you are getting your numbers mixed up on that one. You said for the 18th drawing on that run there was a $94 million jackpot which had sales of $28 million. The jackpot was hit after 18 rollovers and on the 18th draw the Jack pot was for $363 million and the ticket sales were for over $190 million. It was the 10th drawing on that run where the jackpot was $94 million and the ticket sales were $28 million.

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                      Kentucky
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                      Posted: November 6, 2014, 10:07 pm - IP Logged

                      Ticket sales are quite a bit smaller then they were just as recently as 2012. The MM jackpot that was hit Tuesday for around 321 million was the result of 20 rollovers. Ticket sales for the drawing with an advertised JP of 321 million were a little more then $75 million. The 3/30/2012 jackpot of $640 million was hit after 18 rollovers. In 2012 there had been 14 rollovers and the JP was at 200 million and for that drawing there were over 66 million in ticket sales for that drawing. The past run had rolled 16 times and the JP was at 200 million and for that draw there were a little more then 39 million in ticket sales. That shows ticket sales for the same amount of 200 million were 60% of what they were 2 1/2 years ago. The 2012 run also after 16 rollovers the JP was at 290 million and ticket sales for that drawing were 111 million which is 36 million more then the 75 million for Tuesdays JP of 321 million. I beleive the new matrix might have something to do with it and also the fact that in the last couple of years that Jack Pots of over 200 million which used to be rare and make headlines are not that rare anymore.

                      You're right, it looks like I included 8 drawings from the previous run.

                      Sales are about the same since the matrix change a year ago and my point is "all things being equal", sales are about the same. It looks like overall, players are looking at both PB and MM jackpots differently because the last MM $321 million jackpot had slightly less sales than a $241 million jackpot in early 2012.

                      PB lowered their odds, but doubled the price of a ticket. And while PB players spent $60 million on a $225 million compared to $44.5 million MM players spent on a $224 million pot, MM sold 50% more tickets.