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Why any good Pick 3 system, method, or tool will ,almost, certainly fail

Topic closed. 107 replies. Last post 3 years ago by Pick3Guy.

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United States
Member #59354
March 13, 2008
4390 Posts
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Posted: November 16, 2014, 9:27 pm - IP Logged

Just my 2 cents worth but the biggest reason I see for failures is playing every game. 

Many systems are built around some analysis which may show good data but we need

to look a little deeper to see if there are any indicators that can help us know when to

play. 

When I have a good win I stop playing unless I see some very good reason to continue. 

At best, system play is a little like card counting and when counting cards if the counts

don't favor a win then don't up the ante.   It's not uncommon for me to sit out playing for

over a month while waiting.   When I find an indicator that says play then I play for a

few games and if my timing is right I will most likely pick up a nice win but if it does not

happen within 2 or 3 games I back out.   Don't chase the lottery, let it come to you. 

 

I often see many good bits of information in almost all my analysis but before I play any of

these I need indicators, no indicators, no play.

 

I see the opposite of this all the time, when things start going south then the bets are

increased and the losses sky rocket.  The best break-even strategy is to stop playing so

use it anytime you don't have a good reason to place a bet.

 

Math can show us everything we need to know about the game except how to win.

 

RL

....

    doodoohead's avatar - avatar 1308.gif

    United States
    Member #2392
    September 27, 2003
    456 Posts
    Online
    Posted: November 16, 2014, 11:10 pm - IP Logged

    Just my 2 cents worth but the biggest reason I see for failures is playing every game. 

    Many systems are built around some analysis which may show good data but we need

    to look a little deeper to see if there are any indicators that can help us know when to

    play. 

    When I have a good win I stop playing unless I see some very good reason to continue. 

    At best, system play is a little like card counting and when counting cards if the counts

    don't favor a win then don't up the ante.   It's not uncommon for me to sit out playing for

    over a month while waiting.   When I find an indicator that says play then I play for a

    few games and if my timing is right I will most likely pick up a nice win but if it does not

    happen within 2 or 3 games I back out.   Don't chase the lottery, let it come to you. 

     

    I often see many good bits of information in almost all my analysis but before I play any of

    these I need indicators, no indicators, no play.

     

    I see the opposite of this all the time, when things start going south then the bets are

    increased and the losses sky rocket.  The best break-even strategy is to stop playing so

    use it anytime you don't have a good reason to place a bet.

     

    Math can show us everything we need to know about the game except how to win.

     

    RL

    You talking Pick 3/4 games or those ridiculous high odds big games? Because you are talking Apples and Orangutans. 

     

    "Math can show us everything we need to know about the game except how to win." 

     RL

              To say that in such a way is a great disservice to novice Pick 3/4 players. 

                Math tells us that we are up against almost unbreakable Odds alright, but certain players around here use it to win much more than the odds would dictate.

      Perhaps you meant to say that Math shows us that using anything other than LUCK to win the bigger games is hubris tic folly. By chance using your own personal experience as an example. 

     fishface5 

      garyo1954's avatar - garyo
      Dallas, Texas
      United States
      Member #4549
      May 2, 2004
      1875 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: November 16, 2014, 11:25 pm - IP Logged

      RL,

      Can't believe I posted ten hours ago when the OP was here and he still hasn't responded.

      Either he is complaining to be complaining, or he is not a logical thinker. I tend to think its a bit of both.

      This is the second thread I hand gifted him the numbers to make his case and the light bulb still hasn't gone off.

      For all the fluff I wrote, I can see it. I'm good at fluff. I look through pocket fluff and dryer fluff when I'm not fluffing pillows. 

      But I cannot believe there hasn't been one single post to call me on this fluff.

      I'll do it myself....

      Dear garyo1954,

      "You are an idjit!

      Doubles stay out 7 in a row 218 times, right? If I play all 218 times, I win 40 times,  but I LOSE 168 times!

      Then with doubles out 8 in a row, I play 168 times and win 39, but I LOSE 129 times!

      Doubles are now out 9 in a row and I play 129 times winning 24, AND LOSING 105!

      At 10 in a row I play 105 times, get 28 wins and LOSE 77 TIMES!

      How hard is this idjit?

      In that four game span I WIN 141 times (Yay) BUT I LOSE 479 TIMES.

      You idjit!

      Signed, Anonamouth"

       

      G

      PS Don't get afraid I have these conversations with me daily. I always win too.

      My greatest accomplishment is teaching cats about Vienna Sausage. When I need a friend, all I need do is walk outside, pop open a can, and every little critter in the neighborhood drops by to say "Hi!"

        BigDMike's avatar - Money 20City_zpsfnsebmis.jpg

        Antarctica
        Member #134465
        October 28, 2012
        1138 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: November 17, 2014, 12:31 am - IP Logged

        DOUBLES !!!  YEAH !!!  PRAY TO THE LOTTERY GODS, and FACE YOUR FEARS !!! I PREFER and LOVE playing DOUBLES, b/c the payout is Higher, and there are only 3 Combos to cover in Pick 3.

        This being the case, it is probably a Good Idea to invest more effort in figuring out Strategies for Doubles, in both Pick 3 and Pick 4.

        Yes indeed... Doubles will get you paid. If you can predict the position of one of the digits, it makes that straight money (play to WIN) so much easier. I always play doubles split. 

        C4 (XxxX, XxXx or xXxX)

        C3 (XxX)

        Doubles will send you to the district office if you understand the power of a bankroll and progressive betting.  You have to press your combos up, move some digits and play the game.  Most people have lost so much from being all over the place that by the time they get that "box" ,  they're recouping less than half of their money.  With doubles, you get to eliminate a digit.  If you really want to get closer, then High/Low, Odd/Even.  If you're playing odd doubles, then ONLY play those odd doubles until an odd double shows up (pressing a few combos).  Why stop, just because it didn't in that drawing.  Set up a bankroll, track the digits, scratch your head, then play.  Example: I'll be all over those EVEN doubles after this "digit 1" shows up.  All of my combos have the digit 1, I don't care about doubles at the moment.  If one comes before I'm finished working the digit 1, then congrats to the winners.  Losing teaches us how to win.  Anyone that gets upset or frustrated by losing, probably doesn't really have the money to be playing.  Anyone that doesn't pay attention to how people lose, don't see the value in learning what NOT to do.  That's a different discussion though. 

        Either way... it is what it is.  I like doubles.

        Good "luck" people.


          United States
          Member #155994
          June 5, 2014
          497 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: November 17, 2014, 2:08 am - IP Logged

          P3G,

          I'm glad you find it interesting. How interesting that you find it interesting. :)

          It's all in your delivery sweetheart. You have no manners. You're also arrogant. 

          But that's your problem, isn't it?

          I would critique your system, but alas, I wasn't interested enough to look. :)

          My system failed "miserably" in New York? So? What's your point? Oops, now I'm being rude. tisk tisk

          Do have a seat. :)

          That is all.

          Tootles.  :)

           Well, you have me figured all wrong. So, what about your delivery? Apparently, you're very judgemental of people. Initially, my focus was on your method and not on you. But, you've decided to make it personal and put your focus on me.

            FrankieH's avatar - cat anm.gif

            United States
            Member #21258
            September 5, 2005
            267 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: November 17, 2014, 4:12 am - IP Logged

             Well, you have me figured all wrong. So, what about your delivery? Apparently, you're very judgemental of people. Initially, my focus was on your method and not on you. But, you've decided to make it personal and put your focus on me.

            P3G,

            You rudely addressed me the FIRST time you interacted with me. I didn't respond in kind the first time. I like to give a person the benefit of doubt the first time, i.e., 'maybe this person is having a bad day", "maybe this person has had too much to drink", "maybe this person has a spectrum disorder"...etc.

            When you rudely came at me the second time, I responded in kind.

            You're projecting claims that I NEVER made. My opening line was, "This method is "designed" to...."

            Like MOST people on this site, I try to create fun methods. If it works for me, i SHARE it. I don't beat around the bush hoping people will BEG  me for a big reveal like you seem to do.

            Unlike you, i don't have a superior air about me and I don't claim MY system is the best out there.

            I even told you to go find another method that you liked if you didn't like mine. I meant that. You, being very arrogant and rude made comments about my system. Fair enough, if you don't like it, don't use it. It's not that hard, is it? 

            Then you say things like, "Your method failed miserably in New York". Do you actually think that i care what you think about my method? You don't mean diddly to me P3G. Oh, by the way, mine and many other methods may fail miserably, but you seem miserable. You seem like a very miserable, maladjusted person with socialization issues. 

            Making it personal? You made it personal the moment you came at me, (someone you don't know), in a very rude, condescending, and aggressive manner.

            You created bad blood. Own it.

             

            Toodles.

            It's better to ask for permission than to beg for forgiveness.


              United States
              Member #155994
              June 5, 2014
              497 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: November 17, 2014, 1:07 pm - IP Logged

              DOUBLES !!!  YEAH !!!  PRAY TO THE LOTTERY GODS, and FACE YOUR FEARS !!! I PREFER and LOVE playing DOUBLES, b/c the payout is Higher, and there are only 3 Combos to cover in Pick 3.

              This being the case, it is probably a Good Idea to invest more effort in figuring out Strategies for Doubles, in both Pick 3 and Pick 4.

               Well, not so fast. Don't be fooled by the higher payout. Since doubles have lower odds you can expect to lose more often. In effect, this would cost you more money as you keep trying to win. Why do you think there's a higher payout at all? This means your cost versus payout won't differ much. So, everything ,more or less, balances out.


                United States
                Member #155994
                June 5, 2014
                497 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: November 17, 2014, 2:05 pm - IP Logged

                Just my 2 cents worth but the biggest reason I see for failures is playing every game. 

                Many systems are built around some analysis which may show good data but we need

                to look a little deeper to see if there are any indicators that can help us know when to

                play. 

                When I have a good win I stop playing unless I see some very good reason to continue. 

                At best, system play is a little like card counting and when counting cards if the counts

                don't favor a win then don't up the ante.   It's not uncommon for me to sit out playing for

                over a month while waiting.   When I find an indicator that says play then I play for a

                few games and if my timing is right I will most likely pick up a nice win but if it does not

                happen within 2 or 3 games I back out.   Don't chase the lottery, let it come to you. 

                 

                I often see many good bits of information in almost all my analysis but before I play any of

                these I need indicators, no indicators, no play.

                 

                I see the opposite of this all the time, when things start going south then the bets are

                increased and the losses sky rocket.  The best break-even strategy is to stop playing so

                use it anytime you don't have a good reason to place a bet.

                 

                Math can show us everything we need to know about the game except how to win.

                 

                RL

                I Agree!

                  doodoohead's avatar - avatar 1308.gif

                  United States
                  Member #2392
                  September 27, 2003
                  456 Posts
                  Online
                  Posted: November 17, 2014, 2:07 pm - IP Logged

                  My son, such little faith and no patience. Green laugh

                   Its been days "My Son" and patience is a myth.No NoROFL Green laugh This was going to happen. This is never going to happen! Same old pattern of this P3Guy's Big Deal Claims and then NOTHING to show for all of it.  Fool us once, fooled us twice. He just left you to twist in the wind. 

                   I will be sending you a gift in the mail onlymoney . It's my dog collar or whats left of it after it's gone through my gastrointestinal tract for 3 days. It's as ripe as his claims and yourPatience myth is by now. Sorry for you, because neither smells very "Refreshing" by now.    

                   

                   

                   

                   Please, Where is anything "talked" about and so Refreshingly shown anywhere up there? So, do we  see ANY tiny proof of these marvelous claims? That's my point. Everyone already knows about "Rogue Waves". Big deal, its called "win some lose some". Show some of those claims. That's where the rubber meets the road for making money.  Big talk !  Always with the big claims. Then a lot of off subject diversions get tossed around. Then personal slights attempts about someone's humorous Avatar name and off it goes again right onlymoney? First blood.  No thanks, not interested. That's not the point either is it? Or, is it? 

                   

                  This Pick 3 Guy's Big Claims made days ago. Days of his distractions, and several other empty posts. All avoiding showing proof to his boasting claims.     

                  " Fortunately, though, an important discovery was made while conducting my analysis. That is, I've kept noticing certain trends that accompany the appearances of doubles. Sure enough, this breakthrough has turned out to be a major missing piece since it provides for newer ,and muchbetter, restrictions. So far, it has proved to be very effective in protecting against these freak losing streaks."

                  llllllllllll

                   fishface5 

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                    United States
                    Member #116344
                    September 8, 2011
                    4156 Posts
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                    Posted: November 17, 2014, 2:18 pm - IP Logged

                     Well, not so fast. Don't be fooled by the higher payout. Since doubles have lower odds you can expect to lose more often. In effect, this would cost you more money as you keep trying to win. Why do you think there's a higher payout at all? This means your cost versus payout won't differ much. So, everything ,more or less, balances out.

                    Waging singles or doubles is a choice, perception lies with the wager.

                      mmx1's avatar - 8ball

                      Canada
                      Member #90040
                      April 20, 2010
                      506 Posts
                      Online
                      Posted: November 17, 2014, 8:57 pm - IP Logged

                      Nothing wrong with starting this thread.

                      I also didn't like the original poster's behaviour one time in the past, but this topic is not about him personally.

                      This is a general issue worth discussing right here in the system forum.

                       

                      Extremely long skips are the most serious issues every system poster must count on and have a survival strategy for that time.

                      The most of "system" posters ignore long skips that come rarely and take all previous winnings back to zero or deep minus.

                      All ideas must be tested  thoroughly against long past drawings first. 

                      If you find any long term rule you found a system.

                      There are many rules for short terms that people get excited about and get quiet when dark days come.

                       

                      My current strategy doesn't include doubles at all.

                      Doubles are my skips. There are no long consecutive doubles anyway.

                      One or two consecutive doubles we see mostly and even longer ones are survivable.

                       

                      Talking about Pick3 games.

                      Pick4 is different story.

                        garyo1954's avatar - garyo
                        Dallas, Texas
                        United States
                        Member #4549
                        May 2, 2004
                        1875 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: November 17, 2014, 11:07 pm - IP Logged

                        Nothing wrong with starting this thread.

                        I also didn't like the original poster's behaviour one time in the past, but this topic is not about him personally.

                        This is a general issue worth discussing right here in the system forum.

                         

                        Extremely long skips are the most serious issues every system poster must count on and have a survival strategy for that time.

                        The most of "system" posters ignore long skips that come rarely and take all previous winnings back to zero or deep minus.

                        All ideas must be tested  thoroughly against long past drawings first. 

                        If you find any long term rule you found a system.

                        There are many rules for short terms that people get excited about and get quiet when dark days come.

                         

                        My current strategy doesn't include doubles at all.

                        Doubles are my skips. There are no long consecutive doubles anyway.

                        One or two consecutive doubles we see mostly and even longer ones are survivable.

                         

                        Talking about Pick3 games.

                        Pick4 is different story.

                        Agreed. And I'm not in the top ten of the OP's forum clowns.

                        If you pay close attention a discussion of a system will get more responses than threads where there is nothing but numbers posted. (The exception is where a person will keep pumping his numbers thread with 6 to 10 posts a day.)

                        Get a good discussion going and a thread will go page after page after page with different people and ideas being thrown in the ring. 

                        G

                        My greatest accomplishment is teaching cats about Vienna Sausage. When I need a friend, all I need do is walk outside, pop open a can, and every little critter in the neighborhood drops by to say "Hi!"

                          Avatar

                          United States
                          Member #59354
                          March 13, 2008
                          4390 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: November 17, 2014, 11:09 pm - IP Logged

                          You talking Pick 3/4 games or those ridiculous high odds big games? Because you are talking Apples and Orangutans. 

                           

                          "Math can show us everything we need to know about the game except how to win." 

                           RL

                                    To say that in such a way is a great disservice to novice Pick 3/4 players. 

                                      Math tells us that we are up against almost unbreakable Odds alright, but certain players around here use it to win much more than the odds would dictate.

                            Perhaps you meant to say that Math shows us that using anything other than LUCK to win the bigger games is hubris tic folly. By chance using your own personal experience as an example. 

                          doodoohead

                          ridiculous high games.  pick-3 and pick-4 not in my vocabulary but I am working to change that.

                          Building my own daily game system or better said upgrading a old one and so far it's looking like it might

                          do well.  Going to switch to pick-4 for awhile and see if I can win more than playing those ridiculously high

                          odds games.

                          How can math predict random, the two are further apart then the east is from the west.  Math can be used

                          to make needed calculations but it can't predict random.  Using the two words together is a oxymoron,  like

                          bitter-sweet.  If something is bitter it's bitter and if it's sweet then it's sweet.  Mix the two and you have a

                          good idea of using math to predict random.   Maybe that's the answer to the original topic question, why

                          systems fail.  Too much math.

                          RL 

                          ....

                            Avatar

                            United States
                            Member #59354
                            March 13, 2008
                            4390 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: November 17, 2014, 11:21 pm - IP Logged

                            P.S.

                            I am a believer in prediction just not on a regular basis.  What's considered regular is up in the air

                            as everyone has different regulars.  I think I can hit 1ea p-4 straight a month playing one line for 

                            both midday and evening draws.  My state pays $6K for a straight hit so that's a 100 fold return. 

                            Just saying, as I have yet to play a single p-4 game other than on paper.

                            RL

                            ....

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                              United States
                              Member #59354
                              March 13, 2008
                              4390 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: November 17, 2014, 11:23 pm - IP Logged

                              RL,

                              Can't believe I posted ten hours ago when the OP was here and he still hasn't responded.

                              Either he is complaining to be complaining, or he is not a logical thinker. I tend to think its a bit of both.

                              This is the second thread I hand gifted him the numbers to make his case and the light bulb still hasn't gone off.

                              For all the fluff I wrote, I can see it. I'm good at fluff. I look through pocket fluff and dryer fluff when I'm not fluffing pillows. 

                              But I cannot believe there hasn't been one single post to call me on this fluff.

                              I'll do it myself....

                              Dear garyo1954,

                              "You are an idjit!

                              Doubles stay out 7 in a row 218 times, right? If I play all 218 times, I win 40 times,  but I LOSE 168 times!

                              Then with doubles out 8 in a row, I play 168 times and win 39, but I LOSE 129 times!

                              Doubles are now out 9 in a row and I play 129 times winning 24, AND LOSING 105!

                              At 10 in a row I play 105 times, get 28 wins and LOSE 77 TIMES!

                              How hard is this idjit?

                              In that four game span I WIN 141 times (Yay) BUT I LOSE 479 TIMES.

                              You idjit!

                              Signed, Anonamouth"

                               

                              G

                              PS Don't get afraid I have these conversations with me daily. I always win too.

                              Gary

                              Be careful, that kind of math can make your head explode. LOL

                              RL

                              ....