Welcome Guest
Log In | Register )
You last visited December 10, 2016, 11:28 am
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

Powerball is kicking it up-10 millionaires were made tonight!!.

Topic closed. 85 replies. Last post 2 years ago by maringoman.

Page 4 of 6
52
PrintE-mailLink
Avatar
Wyomissing, PA
United States
Member #161050
November 15, 2014
301 Posts
Offline
Posted: January 26, 2015, 4:37 pm - IP Logged

 I suppose there are those who are motivated to play only when they see skyrocketing jackpots. One can only hope MUSL knows what it is doing because the whole thing could backfire real bad

If recent past history is any indication, it's near certain to backfire...

Sure, Powerball and Mega Millions will remain highly profitable, but, presumably, will generate revenue at a slower pace than in the past. Many participating lottery jurisdictions will respond by focusing their marketing elsewhere - Powerball and Mega Millions being relegated to being niche games, occasionally getting mainstream play only when the jackpots get huge. Already seeing that - many players have cut way back on them, and instead play instant tickets and various in-state numbers / jackpot games.

If MUSL was smart, they'd widely tout the number of new millionaires created every drawing, month, year, etc from 2nd tier Powerball winners. Though, they'd have to be sure to downplay such marketing in California, which has para-mutuel payouts, which sometimes works out great for winners, but often not so much, as this past week illustrated with the two CA 2nd tier winners who won $534,961 instead of the $1 million fixed prize offered in other PB jurisdictions.

    maringoman's avatar - images q=tbn:ANd9GcTbRxpKQmOfcCoUqF2FyqIOAwDo7rg9G-lfJLAALPGWJWwiz19eRw
    Massachusetts
    United States
    Member #37433
    April 14, 2006
    2747 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: January 27, 2015, 6:25 am - IP Logged

    If recent past history is any indication, it's near certain to backfire...

    Sure, Powerball and Mega Millions will remain highly profitable, but, presumably, will generate revenue at a slower pace than in the past. Many participating lottery jurisdictions will respond by focusing their marketing elsewhere - Powerball and Mega Millions being relegated to being niche games, occasionally getting mainstream play only when the jackpots get huge. Already seeing that - many players have cut way back on them, and instead play instant tickets and various in-state numbers / jackpot games.

    If MUSL was smart, they'd widely tout the number of new millionaires created every drawing, month, year, etc from 2nd tier Powerball winners. Though, they'd have to be sure to downplay such marketing in California, which has para-mutuel payouts, which sometimes works out great for winners, but often not so much, as this past week illustrated with the two CA 2nd tier winners who won $534,961 instead of the $1 million fixed prize offered in other PB jurisdictions.

    I Agree! powerball is good as it is

    That money's gone fo ever

      mypiemaster's avatar - 2015021003pileofcash
      JACKPOT HUNTER

      United States
      Member #141034
      April 2, 2013
      1410 Posts
      Online
      Posted: January 27, 2015, 4:53 pm - IP Logged

      If recent past history is any indication, it's near certain to backfire...

      Sure, Powerball and Mega Millions will remain highly profitable, but, presumably, will generate revenue at a slower pace than in the past. Many participating lottery jurisdictions will respond by focusing their marketing elsewhere - Powerball and Mega Millions being relegated to being niche games, occasionally getting mainstream play only when the jackpots get huge. Already seeing that - many players have cut way back on them, and instead play instant tickets and various in-state numbers / jackpot games.

      If MUSL was smart, they'd widely tout the number of new millionaires created every drawing, month, year, etc from 2nd tier Powerball winners. Though, they'd have to be sure to downplay such marketing in California, which has para-mutuel payouts, which sometimes works out great for winners, but often not so much, as this past week illustrated with the two CA 2nd tier winners who won $534,961 instead of the $1 million fixed prize offered in other PB jurisdictions.

      Greed and the insatiable appetite to maximize profit at the expense of players by PB and MM, will inevitably drive players away. They think we are all hooked on PB and MM. They might just be making a big mistake.

      Seek and ye shall find -Matt. 7:7 ...Ask and ye shall receive -John 16:24 ...Give and it shall be given unto you -Luke 6:38 ...Be careful what you ask for!!! -Mypiemaster 1:1

      Having Money Solves Problems That Not Having Money Creates Yes Nod ****John Carlton****

        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
        mid-Ohio
        United States
        Member #9
        March 24, 2001
        19831 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: January 27, 2015, 5:42 pm - IP Logged

        If recent past history is any indication, it's near certain to backfire...

        Sure, Powerball and Mega Millions will remain highly profitable, but, presumably, will generate revenue at a slower pace than in the past. Many participating lottery jurisdictions will respond by focusing their marketing elsewhere - Powerball and Mega Millions being relegated to being niche games, occasionally getting mainstream play only when the jackpots get huge. Already seeing that - many players have cut way back on them, and instead play instant tickets and various in-state numbers / jackpot games.

        If MUSL was smart, they'd widely tout the number of new millionaires created every drawing, month, year, etc from 2nd tier Powerball winners. Though, they'd have to be sure to downplay such marketing in California, which has para-mutuel payouts, which sometimes works out great for winners, but often not so much, as this past week illustrated with the two CA 2nd tier winners who won $534,961 instead of the $1 million fixed prize offered in other PB jurisdictions.

        Many participating lottery jurisdictions will respond by focusing their marketing elsewhere - Powerball and Mega Millions being relegated to being niche games, occasionally getting mainstream play only when the jackpots get huge.

        You seem to assume states and MUSL are competing against each others.  States add PB and MM to attract players to their local games and they can do that best by maintaining large jackpots longer that are harder to win.  Having a second prize of $1M-$10M is enough to keep players interested until they have a large jackpot mean while local games with $100K -$500K jackpots and odds of 1:500K and  games with $1M+ with odds of 1:14M get more interest.

        There is only so much money for lotteries and states are probably tried of sending most of their to MUSL to be distributed to one of two players in another state which they can't tax.

         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
           
                     Evil Looking       

          mypiemaster's avatar - 2015021003pileofcash
          JACKPOT HUNTER

          United States
          Member #141034
          April 2, 2013
          1410 Posts
          Online
          Posted: January 29, 2015, 7:28 am - IP Logged

          4 new millionaires made this draw. Hopefully by the end of next week, we should see $300M plus.

          Seek and ye shall find -Matt. 7:7 ...Ask and ye shall receive -John 16:24 ...Give and it shall be given unto you -Luke 6:38 ...Be careful what you ask for!!! -Mypiemaster 1:1

          Having Money Solves Problems That Not Having Money Creates Yes Nod ****John Carlton****

            ThatScaryChick's avatar - x1MqPuM
            Idaho
            United States
            Member #56506
            November 21, 2007
            6537 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: January 29, 2015, 1:43 pm - IP Logged

            4 new millionaires made this draw. Hopefully by the end of next week, we should see $300M plus.

            Powerball should really keep the game how it is. It's fine how it is right now.

            "No one remembers the person who almost climbed the mountain, only the person who eventually gets to the top."

              Avatar
              NY
              United States
              Member #23835
              October 16, 2005
              3475 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: January 29, 2015, 2:06 pm - IP Logged

              4 new millionaires made this draw. Hopefully by the end of next week, we should see $300M plus.

              Extremely unlikely. The previous increase was advertised as $31 million (annuity value), but the actual sales were only enough fo an increase of about $27 million. That means the current increase of $28 million they're advertising now is really a slightly bigger increase (last night's $261 million would have been a bit less than 261). Getting to $300 million would require a far bigger increase than the MUSL people expect, and their recent expectations have already been a bit optimistic.

              PB may be doing a bit better than MM, but based on recent trends I think we've got to get somewhere north of $300 million before actual sales are going to be much more than MUSL's initial prediction.

                LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
                Happyland
                United States
                Member #146344
                September 1, 2013
                1129 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: January 29, 2015, 6:51 pm - IP Logged

                Extremely unlikely. The previous increase was advertised as $31 million (annuity value), but the actual sales were only enough fo an increase of about $27 million. That means the current increase of $28 million they're advertising now is really a slightly bigger increase (last night's $261 million would have been a bit less than 261). Getting to $300 million would require a far bigger increase than the MUSL people expect, and their recent expectations have already been a bit optimistic.

                PB may be doing a bit better than MM, but based on recent trends I think we've got to get somewhere north of $300 million before actual sales are going to be much more than MUSL's initial prediction.

                As of PM 01/28 MUSL is projecting the next draw to be about $322 million annuity. Sales were only over-projected by about $4 million which doesn't amount to much cash to make a big difference. I think the actual annuity was less than $2 million below advertised.

                If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
                If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

                2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
                P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

                  Avatar
                  NY
                  United States
                  Member #23835
                  October 16, 2005
                  3475 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: January 30, 2015, 4:28 am - IP Logged

                  " MUSL is projecting the next draw to be about $322 million"

                  At that point they might be optimistic that the final tally will be a bit higher, but it means they're currently planning on an increase of $33 million, which is only a modest increase from the current  $28 million and the previous (optimistic) $31 million.

                  If it rolls after 322 maybe we'll start to see fairly big jumps. We might see a half billion or so for Valentine's Day if it gets that far.

                    LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
                    Happyland
                    United States
                    Member #146344
                    September 1, 2013
                    1129 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: January 30, 2015, 6:36 am - IP Logged

                    " MUSL is projecting the next draw to be about $322 million"

                    At that point they might be optimistic that the final tally will be a bit higher, but it means they're currently planning on an increase of $33 million, which is only a modest increase from the current  $28 million and the previous (optimistic) $31 million.

                    If it rolls after 322 maybe we'll start to see fairly big jumps. We might see a half billion or so for Valentine's Day if it gets that far.

                    I initially speculated we would see half a billion for Valentine's Day but as you say, sales have only been modest. I expect around $425-$450 million for the holiday if it continues rolling without a winner until then. MUSL is projecting roughly $400 million for the draw before so I dunno, maybe the frenzy will kick in and drive it up.

                    If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
                    If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

                    2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
                    P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

                      GiveFive's avatar - Lottery-026.jpg
                      NY State
                      United States
                      Member #92609
                      June 10, 2010
                      3708 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: January 30, 2015, 7:26 am - IP Logged

                      As for me, I want to see more state raffles.  And I'd like to see them offered on a more frequent basis too.

                      A year or so ago MUSL offered a multi-state raffle around the Halloween timefrme. I read on MUSL's website that there would be more raffles held the following April.  That died a very quiet death. Anyone know what happened?

                      About playing the lottery --  You will lose more than you win. Until you hit a jackpot.  Then everything changes!

                        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                        mid-Ohio
                        United States
                        Member #9
                        March 24, 2001
                        19831 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: January 30, 2015, 6:00 pm - IP Logged

                        As of PM 01/28 MUSL is projecting the next draw to be about $322 million annuity. Sales were only over-projected by about $4 million which doesn't amount to much cash to make a big difference. I think the actual annuity was less than $2 million below advertised.

                        Where are you getting your information?  Everything I've read has it at $289M.

                         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                           
                                     Evil Looking       

                          LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
                          Happyland
                          United States
                          Member #146344
                          September 1, 2013
                          1129 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: January 30, 2015, 8:00 pm - IP Logged

                          Where are you getting your information?  Everything I've read has it at $289M.

                          The draw after this one.

                          If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
                          If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

                          2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
                          P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

                            LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
                            Happyland
                            United States
                            Member #146344
                            September 1, 2013
                            1129 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: January 30, 2015, 9:50 pm - IP Logged

                            The draw after this one.

                            If no winner Saturday, jackpot will be $317 annuitized. No winner after that, likely $350 million range. Sales definitely aren't increasing as projected. Now they are no longer anticipating a $400 million jackpot for the pre-Valentine's day drawing.

                            If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
                            If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

                            2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
                            P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

                              Avatar
                              NY
                              United States
                              Member #23835
                              October 16, 2005
                              3475 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: January 31, 2015, 1:34 am - IP Logged

                              "As of PM 01/28 MUSL is projecting the next draw to be about $322 million annuity. "

                              "If no winner Saturday, jackpot will be $317 annuitized."

                              Jeez. You know sales are declining when the first advertised value of a jackpot in the  $300 million range turns out to be overly optimistic. I was figuring that if the next one was 320ish that 2 more would probably increase it by close to $100 million, and that anything in the 400+ range should easily hit 500 if it rolled. Maybe that last is still true, but I guess the folks at MUSL are even more pessimistic than I am about how soon the rush will start.