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Powerball is kicking it up-10 millionaires were made tonight!!.

Topic closed. 85 replies. Last post 2 years ago by maringoman.

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Wyomissing, PA
United States
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November 15, 2014
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Posted: January 31, 2015, 10:52 am - IP Logged

If no winner Saturday, jackpot will be $317 annuitized. No winner after that, likely $350 million range. Sales definitely aren't increasing as projected. Now they are no longer anticipating a $400 million jackpot for the pre-Valentine's day drawing.

Amazing how even $300 million advertised annuity jackpots aren't exciting. Main reason seems to be jackpot fatigue - it's no longer new, etc. Also many players now perceive the odds of winning to be not just astronomical, but rather seemingly impossible (especially so with Mega Millions after its matrix change). Plus, to add insult to injury, the doubled price.

And more savvy players see through the overly inflated annuity jackpot amount; don't trust the estimates at all, since Powerball doesn't always pay what they advertise ...

For example, about two years ago, there was a Powerball jackpot widely advertised as $600 million annuity, but the actual jackpot turned out to be a bit less at around $590 million annuity. Sure the winner isn't upset, but it's false advertising, since many players played with the belief the annuity jackpot was "$600 million" annuity, not something less. It's unfortunate MUSL didn't honor the $600 million annuity number, but then I'm, presumably, in a tiny, tiny minority of players who noticed the discrepancy, and have actually cutback play of Powerball and Mega Millions due to that reason too.

Rambling on, but point is I go by the cash value of the past drawing, and then add some to that value. I don't solely rely on the current jackpot value being advertised. Most players don't go into all that thought, but have, nevertheless, raised their threshold for playing as the meager rollovers well illustrate.

    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
    mid-Ohio
    United States
    Member #9
    March 24, 2001
    19901 Posts
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    Posted: January 31, 2015, 11:02 am - IP Logged

    Amazing how even $300 million advertised annuity jackpots aren't exciting. Main reason seems to be jackpot fatigue - it's no longer new, etc. Also many players now perceive the odds of winning to be not just astronomical, but rather seemingly impossible (especially so with Mega Millions after its matrix change). Plus, to add insult to injury, the doubled price.

    And more savvy players see through the overly inflated annuity jackpot amount; don't trust the estimates at all, since Powerball doesn't always pay what they advertise ...

    For example, about two years ago, there was a Powerball jackpot widely advertised as $600 million annuity, but the actual jackpot turned out to be a bit less at around $590 million annuity. Sure the winner isn't upset, but it's false advertising, since many players played with the belief the annuity jackpot was "$600 million" annuity, not something less. It's unfortunate MUSL didn't honor the $600 million annuity number, but then I'm, presumably, in a tiny, tiny minority of players who noticed the discrepancy, and have actually cutback play of Powerball and Mega Millions due to that reason too.

    Rambling on, but point is I go by the cash value of the past drawing, and then add some to that value. I don't solely rely on the current jackpot value being advertised. Most players don't go into all that thought, but have, nevertheless, raised their threshold for playing as the meager rollovers well illustrate.

    All cash values and annuities amounts are estimated, that means they are guessing at best.

     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
       
                 Evil Looking       

      LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
      Happyland
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      Posted: January 31, 2015, 12:17 pm - IP Logged

      Something to keep in mind about the annuity also is that the "final" value is based on the interest rate (technically the yield bid by the treasury trust) for the following business day when the jackpot is hit (i.e. Saturday would use Monday rates, not Friday). So in reality, cash held equal, the annuity changes every day. Since obviously nobody can predict future yields, they simply use the annuity factor that was utilized for the most recent jackpot in their estimations. They are conservative in estimating the cash value though, so the advertised CVO can usually be trusted (except in cases where sales severely lag projections, of course).

      If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
      If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

      2017: 0% (0 tickets)
      P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

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        Wyomissing, PA
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        Posted: January 31, 2015, 1:39 pm - IP Logged

        All cash values and annuities amounts are estimated, that means they are guessing at best.

        Most lotteries gloss over the "estimated" part. Sure, many mention "estimate", but all too often, not. Sometimes there's an asterisk somewhere, but with little to no indication what it's in regards to. NJ Lottery is a prime example: "Next Jackpot* Saturday 01/31/15 $289 MILLION Cash Option $189.4 Million". And that's assuming they even bother with that. Sometimes the Powerball / Mega Million jackpots is advertised as if the value is the value with no mention to the contrary. CA Lottery is a prime example: "The next big jackpot is $289 MILLION". Deceptive.

        Sure, most players know the jackpot values are estimated, but not all realize that. But even players who do assume the actual amount will be very close. Admittedly, $590 million verses $600 million (annuity) is relatively close, but what bothers me is the cash value difference is even smaller - the participating lotteries could have easily, and should have, bulked up that Powerball jackpot to the widely advertised amount. Many lotteries do for their in-state games. To not do that is excess greed, and is deceptive - some players do notice; refrain from playing / wager less.

        About the only saving grace for those big jackpot games is the 2nd tier prize, in particular, Powerball $1 million ($2 million with Powerplay) prize, which is a 1 in 5,153,633 million chance - lousy odds, but within the remote realm of possibility, as the 8 one million dollar winners (+2 CA winners who won around 1/2 that) in the Jan-24th drawing well illustrates. After Powerball matrix changes in July, I'll play it even less. 1 in ~9.2 million to win $1 million with no doubler option -well other than buying another ticket for $2, which, effectively, is a $1 more than now; increased chance of the prize going para-mutuel...

        Speaking of para-mutuel, most players (outside of CA) don't realize most all prizes in Powerball and Mega Millions can go para-mutuel. To date, far as I'm aware, has never been an issue. The para-mutuel thresholds triggers are relatively high. However, after the matrix change and, presumably, lower level of player participation, it could occur. I mention that, since there are some who bulk up the 2nd place prize by playing the same numbers multiple times - that may not work out too well in the future. Better to put that money towards playing additional number combinations (at out of this world, insane odds) and/or other games.

        As others have mentioned, a raffle game would be ideal. Sure, it would likely be relegated to a niche game, but is something lotteries should offer. Heck, not many play Pick 5 (formerly Quinto) in PA, but it has a following, as does PA Treasure Hunt. Brings players in, who often will buy other tickets too. I'm more likely to buy extra tickets (numbers and instants) when an in-state jackpot game gets high verses the multi-state jackpot games.

          rcbbuckeye's avatar - Lottery-043.jpg
          Texas
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          Posted: January 31, 2015, 8:51 pm - IP Logged

          All cash values and annuities amounts are estimated, that means they are guessing at best.

          All I know is that even the estimated amounts are more than enough for me to retire comfortably. I don't hardly pay attention to what the jackpot is.

          CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

          A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)

            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
            mid-Ohio
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            Posted: January 31, 2015, 9:41 pm - IP Logged

            All I know is that even the estimated amounts are more than enough for me to retire comfortably. I don't hardly pay attention to what the jackpot is.

            The guesses are close enough for me to decide which games I prefer to play.  So far it hasn't ever matter since the only prizes I've ever won were fixed amounts regardless of the jackpot sizes.

             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
               
                         Evil Looking       

              noise-gate's avatar - images q=tbn:ANd9GcR91HDs4UJhjxO7cmeMQWZ5lB_FOcMLOGicau4V74R45tDgPWrr
              Bay Area - California
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              Posted: January 31, 2015, 10:30 pm - IP Logged

              A three or four way split of this present PB jackpot is good enough for me... providing l am one of the 3 or 4 individuals that takes home a piece of the pie.Big Smile

               After the Feds take a 2nd bite of the Apple, it would seem we looking at an amount North of $127 Mil. Sweet!

              People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it- George Bernard Shaw.

                mypiemaster's avatar - 2015021003pileofcash
                JACKPOT HUNTER

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                Posted: February 1, 2015, 1:03 am - IP Logged

                8 newly minted millionaires from six different states for this draw. The dreaded 2X multiplier rears its ugly head again. The jackpot is now a little sweeter for the next draw Banana.

                Seek and ye shall find -Matt. 7:7 ...Ask and ye shall receive -John 16:24 ...Give and it shall be given unto you -Luke 6:38 ...Be careful what you ask for!!! -Mypiemaster 1:1

                Having Money Solves Problems That Not Having Money Creates Yes Nod ****John Carlton****

                  maringoman's avatar - images q=tbn:ANd9GcTbRxpKQmOfcCoUqF2FyqIOAwDo7rg9G-lfJLAALPGWJWwiz19eRw
                  Massachusetts
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                  Posted: February 1, 2015, 1:28 am - IP Logged

                  8 newly minted millionaires from six different states for this draw. The dreaded 2X multiplier rears its ugly head again. The jackpot is now a little sweeter for the next draw Banana.

                  Naughty  This is very good. I hope to find a way..

                  That money's gone fo ever

                    mypiemaster's avatar - 2015021003pileofcash
                    JACKPOT HUNTER

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                    Posted: February 2, 2015, 1:22 am - IP Logged

                    Some people are still yapping about the so-called non-winning states, instead of focusing their energy on hunting down and bagging a fat jackpot. Stooges

                    Seek and ye shall find -Matt. 7:7 ...Ask and ye shall receive -John 16:24 ...Give and it shall be given unto you -Luke 6:38 ...Be careful what you ask for!!! -Mypiemaster 1:1

                    Having Money Solves Problems That Not Having Money Creates Yes Nod ****John Carlton****

                      mypiemaster's avatar - 2015021003pileofcash
                      JACKPOT HUNTER

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                      Posted: February 4, 2015, 6:22 pm - IP Logged

                      Powerball should really keep the game how it is. It's fine how it is right now.

                      Got 5 more lines with pp just to enjoy the game how it is now before they butcher it, for better or worse.

                      Seek and ye shall find -Matt. 7:7 ...Ask and ye shall receive -John 16:24 ...Give and it shall be given unto you -Luke 6:38 ...Be careful what you ask for!!! -Mypiemaster 1:1

                      Having Money Solves Problems That Not Having Money Creates Yes Nod ****John Carlton****

                        mypiemaster's avatar - 2015021003pileofcash
                        JACKPOT HUNTER

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                        Posted: February 5, 2015, 10:08 am - IP Logged

                        This 2X multiplier is beginning to get on my last nerve. 2X multiplier has appeared 4 times in the last 6 draws. On a positive note, 8 new millionaires from seven different states were made this draw and the jackpot keeps growing, which is a very good thing.

                        Seek and ye shall find -Matt. 7:7 ...Ask and ye shall receive -John 16:24 ...Give and it shall be given unto you -Luke 6:38 ...Be careful what you ask for!!! -Mypiemaster 1:1

                        Having Money Solves Problems That Not Having Money Creates Yes Nod ****John Carlton****

                          SammyJoe10's avatar - disney37
                          Middle of Nowhere NC
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                          Posted: February 5, 2015, 10:17 am - IP Logged

                          The 2x multiplier does suck, which is why I rarely power play. I love it when there are multiple 5+0 winners, spread the wealth around! Good luck to everyone on the next drawing!

                            mypiemaster's avatar - 2015021003pileofcash
                            JACKPOT HUNTER

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                            Posted: February 6, 2015, 6:26 pm - IP Logged

                            Extremely unlikely. The previous increase was advertised as $31 million (annuity value), but the actual sales were only enough fo an increase of about $27 million. That means the current increase of $28 million they're advertising now is really a slightly bigger increase (last night's $261 million would have been a bit less than 261). Getting to $300 million would require a far bigger increase than the MUSL people expect, and their recent expectations have already been a bit optimistic.

                            PB may be doing a bit better than MM, but based on recent trends I think we've got to get somewhere north of $300 million before actual sales are going to be much more than MUSL's initial prediction.

                            The jackpot is way over $300M+ for  2/7/15 draw, like I projected on on 1/29/15.  I hope it keeps growing to keep the game more interesting.

                            Seek and ye shall find -Matt. 7:7 ...Ask and ye shall receive -John 16:24 ...Give and it shall be given unto you -Luke 6:38 ...Be careful what you ask for!!! -Mypiemaster 1:1

                            Having Money Solves Problems That Not Having Money Creates Yes Nod ****John Carlton****

                              mypiemaster's avatar - 2015021003pileofcash
                              JACKPOT HUNTER

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                              Posted: February 8, 2015, 6:09 am - IP Logged

                              11 second prize winners from 8 different States. Just the way I like it. Hopefully by Valentine's day, we shall see 1/2 a billy jackpot and that should ignite the feeding frenzy. Everybody will have a happy Valentine, so plan ahead. I know I'm gonna enjoy it.

                              Seek and ye shall find -Matt. 7:7 ...Ask and ye shall receive -John 16:24 ...Give and it shall be given unto you -Luke 6:38 ...Be careful what you ask for!!! -Mypiemaster 1:1

                              Having Money Solves Problems That Not Having Money Creates Yes Nod ****John Carlton****