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Luckiest States

Topic closed. 62 replies. Last post 11 months ago by noise-gate.

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Alpharetta, GA
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October 23, 2015
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Posted: January 14, 2016, 9:46 pm - IP Logged

I agree with your assessment on quick picks.   I think the mechanism and or algorithm used could easily be tampered to favor bad combinations.  That is why I always pick my numbers.  If you fill out a play slip it doesn't matter where you bought the ticket from. 

The same argument holds true for scratchers here in ga.  It Seems like a high proportion of the winning tickets are from lower income areas.  Is this a case of correlation not causation?  It could be those areas have heavier players or it could be the lottery commission exploiting that playing pattern and sending winners to those areas.  Either way this is why I don't play them.

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    Alpharetta, GA
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    Posted: January 14, 2016, 9:49 pm - IP Logged

    Think about a quick pick for a minute... When you use a quick pick you are letting the house pick your bet for you.  Do you think they are going to give you an optimal combination or a sub optimal piece of crap which furthers their house edge?  This a business after all lol.

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      Posted: January 14, 2016, 10:08 pm - IP Logged

      Think about a quick pick for a minute... When you use a quick pick you are letting the house pick your bet for you.  Do you think they are going to give you an optimal combination or a sub optimal piece of crap which furthers their house edge?  This a business after all lol.

      That's what I've been saying the whole time. There is not an even chance when buying every ticket. Quick pick tickets are a different beast. Especially in lower powerball sales states. What about the stats of non jackpot/2nd place prizes. If everything is equal as this idiot keeps saying, then I'd expect the same dollar amount per capita won in all these other states. Which I haven't seen proof of, because it doesn't exist.

        ArizonaDream's avatar - Lottery-009.jpg

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        Posted: January 14, 2016, 11:59 pm - IP Logged

        If I'd gotten a QP with 34 as the highest number this past Tuesday, I'd have thought they were bad numbers. But look at what happened Wed. 

         

        The odds of winning are bad everywhere. But get enough people playing and sooner or later, someone will win. It's not the state, it's the huge number of players that some areas have which puts the state in the list of winners.

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          Posted: January 15, 2016, 12:01 am - IP Logged

          There are no "optimal" or "sub optimal" combinations.  Every single combination has exactly the same 1 in 292 million chance of winning. 

          The reason you keep losing money is because the house edge is monstrously big.  They return 35 cents of every $2 ticket on the non jackpot prizes.    The same is true whether you pick your super special numbers or the quick pick random number generator picks your numbers. 

          The odds of you picking the red ball are 1 in 26 and that is true whether you look for patterns in past picks, look for your pick in the stars or toss a dice and whatever the dice shows.  Or you could pick the month of your birthday and you'll have a 1 in 26 chance.

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            Posted: January 15, 2016, 12:24 am - IP Logged

            There are no "optimal" or "sub optimal" combinations.  Every single combination has exactly the same 1 in 292 million chance of winning. 

            The reason you keep losing money is because the house edge is monstrously big.  They return 35 cents of every $2 ticket on the non jackpot prizes.    The same is true whether you pick your super special numbers or the quick pick random number generator picks your numbers. 

            The odds of you picking the red ball are 1 in 26 and that is true whether you look for patterns in past picks, look for your pick in the stars or toss a dice and whatever the dice shows.  Or you could pick the month of your birthday and you'll have a 1 in 26 chance.

            Like she said 

            "Think about a quick pick for a minute... When you use a quick pick you are letting the house pick your bet for you.  Do you think they are going to give you an optimal combination or a sub optimal piece of crap which furthers their house edge?  This a business after all lol."

            When everybody loses around my area, saying there are no sub optimal combinations doesn't compute. Besides, never winning off a ticket even once until playing my own numbers and winning all the time says otherwise. Thanks.

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              Posted: January 15, 2016, 12:35 am - IP Logged

              In fact, on average, one out of every 12 million QP tickets sold results in a $1M winner over the long term.

              That is true in every state and every city.

               

              Poor little Kansas with only 4.7m tickets sold did better than average on the last drawing with 2 $1m winners.

               

              Let's look at specific Kansas statistic for the last drawing:

              They sold 4,676,236 tickets

              190,346 of those tickets won money

              Total money won from those tickets was $3,274,686

               

              The odds of any ticket winning is 1 in 24.87 so Kansas should have expected, on average, 188,027 winning tickets.

              Very close to how many were winners

              Ignoring Powerplay the average return per $2 ticket, ignoring the jackpot and $1m prize is 23.44 cents

              So the expected return on all the tickets sold in Kansas, ignoring jackpot and $1m, is $1.1m, quite close to the $1.2m actually won.

               

              Kansas posts the exact number of winners in each category, including Powerplay broken out.

               

              The more samples, the closer your results will be to the expected.

              For example, there were 121,302 winning tickets that had just the red ball.  The odds of that are 1 in 38.32 so the expected number in Kansas would be 122,031 based on their sales of 4,676,236 tickets.  A perfect example of how as the sample size grows the closer you get to the expected number.

               

              This is ample proof to me that the number of winning tickets in Kansas, a smaller state, is right in line with expectations.

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                Posted: January 15, 2016, 1:01 am - IP Logged

                In fact, on average, one out of every 12 million QP tickets sold results in a $1M winner over the long term.

                That is true in every state and every city.

                 

                Poor little Kansas with only 4.7m tickets sold did better than average on the last drawing with 2 $1m winners.

                 

                Let's look at specific Kansas statistic for the last drawing:

                They sold 4,676,236 tickets

                190,346 of those tickets won money

                Total money won from those tickets was $3,274,686

                 

                The odds of any ticket winning is 1 in 24.87 so Kansas should have expected, on average, 188,027 winning tickets.

                Very close to how many were winners

                Ignoring Powerplay the average return per $2 ticket, ignoring the jackpot and $1m prize is 23.44 cents

                So the expected return on all the tickets sold in Kansas, ignoring jackpot and $1m, is $1.1m, quite close to the $1.2m actually won.

                 

                Kansas posts the exact number of winners in each category, including Powerplay broken out.

                 

                The more samples, the closer your results will be to the expected.

                For example, there were 121,302 winning tickets that had just the red ball.  The odds of that are 1 in 38.32 so the expected number in Kansas would be 122,031 based on their sales of 4,676,236 tickets.  A perfect example of how as the sample size grows the closer you get to the expected number.

                 

                This is ample proof to me that the number of winning tickets in Kansas, a smaller state, is right in line with expectations.

                You gave an example of just ONE state, LOL. One out of many many states that do very poorly. One state doesn't prove anything. Thanks.

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                  Posted: January 15, 2016, 1:18 am - IP Logged

                  The point is, this jackpot will have ramifications on Powerball. There will be repercussions in the future for lower population states never winning any jackpots in years. You will see. I'm not saying there's anything the lottery can do to improve this other than to take a look at how these Quick Pick's combinations are printed but they could make more smaller to medium size prizes. I think they are doing fairly well enough for that.

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                    Alpharetta, GA
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                    Posted: January 15, 2016, 8:19 am - IP Logged

                    If there are no sub optimal

                    combinations, tell me why a sequential series has never hit?  The only instance I can think of is the ff 5 in Florida a few years ago. 

                    There absolutely are sub optimal combinations.  And those quick pick terminals are programmed to pick them.

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                      Posted: January 15, 2016, 9:27 am - IP Logged

                      Like she said 

                      "Think about a quick pick for a minute... When you use a quick pick you are letting the house pick your bet for you.  Do you think they are going to give you an optimal combination or a sub optimal piece of crap which furthers their house edge?  This a business after all lol."

                      When everybody loses around my area, saying there are no sub optimal combinations doesn't compute. Besides, never winning off a ticket even once until playing my own numbers and winning all the time says otherwise. Thanks.

                      Everybody loses around your area because in Powerball only 1 combination out of every 25 wins anything and the odds that you'll win more than $7 are one in 15,000

                       

                      It isn't that some combinations are suboptimal, it is that the game isn't designed to create lots of winners, it is designed to create monster jackpots that get people reaching for their wallets.

                       

                      It really is just mathematics at work, factual, long known, well tested, mathematics. 

                       

                      If you buy 25 tickets a week you'll "win all the time", meaning you'll average one winning ticket a week.  But your average winnings for the $50/wk you spend will be less than $10.  If you buy 25 tickets a week, over the long term you'll win a prize greater than $7 about once every 7 years.  That doesn't mean that if you win $100 after only playing a month that probability theory is wrong. 

                       

                      About 75% of all tickets purchased are QuickPicks and about 75% of all prizes won are on QuickPick tickets.   Anyone who thinks they can pick "better numbers" is wrong.  Anyone who writes a news article saying you are better off picking your own numbers to avoid a QuickPick number that a lot of other people pick is wrong.  People can't pick random numbers and whatever theory/system/idea you are using to pick your numbers to avoid what other people are picking will be done by a lot of other people and you'll just end up doing what you were trying to avoid (picking the same combinations as other people). 

                       

                      The odds of ANY combination winning are 1 in 292 million.  All combinations have exactly the same probability of being picked and there are no optimal or suboptimal picks.  If you are worried that QP is going to come up with 1-2-3-4-5-6 well don't fret, the chances of that are the same as you winning, 1 in 292 million.

                        rcbbuckeye's avatar - Lottery-043.jpg
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                        Posted: January 15, 2016, 9:37 am - IP Logged

                        Think about a quick pick for a minute... When you use a quick pick you are letting the house pick your bet for you.  Do you think they are going to give you an optimal combination or a sub optimal piece of crap which furthers their house edge?  This a business after all lol.

                        So crazy,

                        Are you saying that with PB and MM, EVERY lottery terminal in the US is programmed to give out so called bad numbers for people that buy QP's?

                        That means EVERY lottery terminal has to be able to sift through ALL the combinations ALL the other terminals around the country sold.

                        Except one little thing. The terminals aren't connected state to state.

                        Oh, and when the terminals are programmed, who decides what is going to be a winning combination, and a losing combination. Out of over 292 million?

                        Look, with odds like these games, they don't need to do anything to hurt your chances. Because your chances are tiny already.

                        CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

                        A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)

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                          Posted: January 15, 2016, 9:54 am - IP Logged

                          A sequential series has never hit for the exact same reason that 11,238,000 other combinations haven't hit. 

                          If you exclude the powerball then there are 11,238,513 possible combinations of 5 numbers out of 69

                           

                          Of those there are 65 combinations that are sequential so you would expect a sequential set to be drawn, ON AVERAGE, once every 1662 years.

                          But a sequential series is just as likely to show up in the very next drawing as any other set of 65 combinations you can come up with.

                           

                          How many combinations have a gap of 5, 11, 14, 17, 21? 

                          Surely it is more likely that some random looking set of gaps is going to come up than a sequential set, right?

                          Well it isn't.  In fact there is only one combination that has that gap:  1-6-17-31-48-69 and guess what, just like 11,238,000 other combinations

                          that combination has never been drawn before either.    But it has EXACTLY the same chance of being drawn as any other combination on Saturday.

                           

                          What are the odds that all 5 numbers will be even?  Or all be odd?  Well there is a slight bias towards odd numbers, but that is just because there are 35 odd balls and 34 even balls.  But knowing that doesn't give picking odd numbers the edge at all.  Because you have to pick the exact number not whether a ball is odd or even and all numbers have an equal probability of being picked.  The #2 ball doesn't avoid getting picked because the #1 ball was previously picked, the #5 ball doesn't do its best to stay away from the tube because #1, 2, 3, and 4 were just picked.  Balls don't have minds, they don't wander around in the powerball container based on the number printed on them and they absolutely don't remember who got picked in the previous drawings.  They just don't.

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                            Posted: January 15, 2016, 10:14 am - IP Logged

                            So crazy,

                            Are you saying that with PB and MM, EVERY lottery terminal in the US is programmed to give out so called bad numbers for people that buy QP's?

                            That means EVERY lottery terminal has to be able to sift through ALL the combinations ALL the other terminals around the country sold.

                            Except one little thing. The terminals aren't connected state to state.

                            Oh, and when the terminals are programmed, who decides what is going to be a winning combination, and a losing combination. Out of over 292 million?

                            Look, with odds like these games, they don't need to do anything to hurt your chances. Because your chances are tiny already.

                            "Look, with odds like these games, they don't need to do anything to hurt your chances. Because your chances are tiny already."

                             

                            EXACTLY!!!!

                             

                            Playing powerball is like playing roulette with the payout for hitting a number being even money and only number bets allowed.

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                              Alpharetta, GA
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                              Posted: January 15, 2016, 10:48 am - IP Logged

                              I'm not convinced.  I need to see a full analysis of jackpot winners via quick pick versus people that self picked numbers.    And yeah I do think that the terminals can be programmed to have bias.   The terminals do not need the ability to be linked state to state to program bias.  It is the same reason why I don't play games where the computer picks the numbers- here in ga that would be all or nothing and keno.  Ball drop games only.   Much harder to be tampered with.