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New Pick2 and Pick5 coming to Florida

Topic closed. 57 replies. Last post 3 months ago by LottoAce.

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Wyomissing, PA
United States
Member #161050
November 15, 2014
301 Posts
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Posted: August 29, 2016, 11:49 am - IP Logged

From looking at the YouTube Aug-18th video, I'm left wondering what the big issue is. Sure, the balls pop-up out of order, but is the ordering itself being altered?

Does the 2 ball machine really draw 1-1 and does the 3 ball machine really draw 2-5-3 ?  Yes or no?

If each machine is drawing the corresponding numbers, don't see an issue. The balls pop-up randomly in PA Lottery drawings too.

Also, it shouldn't matter what order the balls pop, since each chamber is separate. If anything, assuming it's shown live, such a draw may be more difficult to tamper with / abort early, since the balls pop up so fast and in seemingly random sequence. And to reiterate, since the chambers are separate, it shouldn't matter anyways.

To reiterate, since some may focus on the random pop-up part, is: Are the chambers themselves in the correct order? Did the 2 ball machine really draw 1-1 and did the 3 ball machine really draw 2-5-3?

    amber123's avatar - OpIFNim

    United States
    Member #164727
    March 12, 2015
    2526 Posts
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    Posted: August 29, 2016, 1:29 pm - IP Logged

    From looking at the YouTube Aug-18th video, I'm left wondering what the big issue is. Sure, the balls pop-up out of order, but is the ordering itself being altered?

    Does the 2 ball machine really draw 1-1 and does the 3 ball machine really draw 2-5-3 ?  Yes or no?

    If each machine is drawing the corresponding numbers, don't see an issue. The balls pop-up randomly in PA Lottery drawings too.

    Also, it shouldn't matter what order the balls pop, since each chamber is separate. If anything, assuming it's shown live, such a draw may be more difficult to tamper with / abort early, since the balls pop up so fast and in seemingly random sequence. And to reiterate, since the chambers are separate, it shouldn't matter anyways.

    To reiterate, since some may focus on the random pop-up part, is: Are the chambers themselves in the correct order? Did the 2 ball machine really draw 1-1 and did the 3 ball machine really draw 2-5-3?

    At this point I stopped caring. After all those pre and post tests, I don't care what order they pop out of, they already ruined the natural outcome with the pre and post tests, and juggling around the machines and the tubes.

    It's futile to care because there's nothing we can do about it. All I can do is find patterns that seem to be working temporarily and bet differently when the patterns start changing.

      amber123's avatar - OpIFNim

      United States
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      March 12, 2015
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      Posted: August 29, 2016, 1:40 pm - IP Logged

      I earlier said that as soon as I found out what accounts for the random draw order of the positions in the new Pick games I would post it here.

      My August 19th email on this issue went unanswered, so I called the lottery office today.

      Per Rachel Wheeler in the Florida Lottery draw manager's office, a computer does control the opening of the draw ports, but all the ports open at the same time.

      This means that the random timing of the winning balls dropping into position is due to the time it takes the winning ball itself to bounce around and find the draw tube in its own separate position chamber. 

      This is fair enough as far as I am concerned. I am glad Florida still has a physical, truly random game.

      My only disappointment is that the Florida Lottery did not explain the new draw method to the public, because the P3 and P4 games have been drawn one position at a time in sequential order for 28 years.

      Based upon this information, I view the games as all new, including Pick 3 and Pick 4 (formerly Cash 3 and Play 4).

      Thanks for all the hard work you've done, it's appreciated. However, I disagree on the part you wrote about Florida being a truly random game. A truly random game would mean that after the drawing takes place, they should put the balls back into the tubes and leave the freaking things alone, lock them up in a vault with cameras, till the next drawing. Whatever the machine spits out the next draw is a TRULY RANDOM DRAWING..lol

      The second they start fidgeting around with the balls, machines and tubes, random goes right out the window.

      I can only Imagine how long a casino could stay open for business If the dealer at the Roulette table performed 5 test runs before each official spin, and 5 more after. The customers would yell bloody murder and walk out of there as fast as they could.

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        Wyomissing, PA
        United States
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        November 15, 2014
        301 Posts
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        Posted: August 29, 2016, 2:26 pm - IP Logged

        At this point I stopped caring. After all those pre and post tests, I don't care what order they pop out of, they already ruined the natural outcome with the pre and post tests, and juggling around the machines and the tubes.

        It's futile to care because there's nothing we can do about it. All I can do is find patterns that seem to be working temporarily and bet differently when the patterns start changing.

        Firstly, after reading your replies, I get the sense the Florida drawings work similar to that of PA. Sure the balls pop up out of order, but the chambers are in order; Pick 2 machine draws Pick 2, Pick 3 machine draws Pick 3, etc as one would normally expect. If the ordering of the chambers was different every draw that would be a huge deal, but that appears not to be the case.

        Most, if not all, U.S. lotteries do pre and/or post tests. Nothing new. And yet despite that, one may still notice patterns (ie. particular digit more than others, lots of triples, lack of doubles, repeats, mirroring, etc). Though the human mind has a tendency to seek out patterns whether real or imagined.

        As for your suggestion of just leaving the balls be, that would make tampering easier and more difficult to trace back to a particular suspect(s). If it turned out the balls and/or machine were fixed in some way, but was missed due to lack of testing, that could hurt players too.

        If the lack of transparency of pre and post tests is the main issue, back-test whatever systems / strategies against Texas Lottery results along with lotteries that are less transparent. It's highly likely the results of the back-testing, given a large enough sample, will be similar, regardless.

        In the event back-testing revealed some significant discrepancy, that could be an indication of an exploitable flaw a player could take advantage of. Any lottery that intentionally attempts to skew such drawings does so at risk of some players noticing and cashing in, plus the risk of excessive draws of heavily wagered numbers, such as 123, 777, 1234, 1111, etc.

          Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
          Texas
          United States
          Member #86154
          January 30, 2010
          1649 Posts
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          Posted: August 29, 2016, 4:25 pm - IP Logged

          Thanks for all the hard work you've done, it's appreciated. However, I disagree on the part you wrote about Florida being a truly random game. A truly random game would mean that after the drawing takes place, they should put the balls back into the tubes and leave the freaking things alone, lock them up in a vault with cameras, till the next drawing. Whatever the machine spits out the next draw is a TRULY RANDOM DRAWING..lol

          The second they start fidgeting around with the balls, machines and tubes, random goes right out the window.

          I can only Imagine how long a casino could stay open for business If the dealer at the Roulette table performed 5 test runs before each official spin, and 5 more after. The customers would yell bloody murder and walk out of there as fast as they could.

          First of all, my response to amber123's post here has absolutely nothing to do with anything else discussed elsewhere, okay. I've been saying this same thing for years here at LP 'cause it's just plain common sense but, there are those who feel differently for their own reasoning. Still, I cannot understand how the consistency with comparisons of similar games is completely discounted by people. Think about it. Why in heck does the state need to conduct all these pre & post-test draws just to produce a single official combination? Casinos move billions of dollars without such an approach, and, there are players that win on all the games offered.  In the end, there are still winners and losers but, the losers also still outweigh the winners which is why casinos can afford to pay the winners that are smart in their approach. It's a no-brainer...at least not to me. Any 'real' gambler that is true to the industry and worth his weight will question such lottery practices by the state. They may still play but, they're really squinting their eyes upon doing so. Randomness is a direct result of something occurring HAPHAZARDLY, okay. It's just like amber said about conducting a single draw now, the other occurring later, and with no BS before, in between, or after. Here's what I told an LP member called onlymoney way back in 2014 on this same issue:

           

          http://lotterypost.mobi/thread.aspx?td=3635769

          Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

          There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

          #lotto-4-a-living

            Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
            Texas
            United States
            Member #86154
            January 30, 2010
            1649 Posts
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            Posted: August 29, 2016, 5:27 pm - IP Logged

            I'm very consistent here. Let's go back even another two years to 2012 where I spoke with RJOh on the same dang issue:

             

            http://lotterypost.mobi/thread.aspx?td=2528191

            Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

            There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

            #lotto-4-a-living

              amber123's avatar - OpIFNim

              United States
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              March 12, 2015
              2526 Posts
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              Posted: August 29, 2016, 5:49 pm - IP Logged

              Firstly, after reading your replies, I get the sense the Florida drawings work similar to that of PA. Sure the balls pop up out of order, but the chambers are in order; Pick 2 machine draws Pick 2, Pick 3 machine draws Pick 3, etc as one would normally expect. If the ordering of the chambers was different every draw that would be a huge deal, but that appears not to be the case.

              Most, if not all, U.S. lotteries do pre and/or post tests. Nothing new. And yet despite that, one may still notice patterns (ie. particular digit more than others, lots of triples, lack of doubles, repeats, mirroring, etc). Though the human mind has a tendency to seek out patterns whether real or imagined.

              As for your suggestion of just leaving the balls be, that would make tampering easier and more difficult to trace back to a particular suspect(s). If it turned out the balls and/or machine were fixed in some way, but was missed due to lack of testing, that could hurt players too.

              If the lack of transparency of pre and post tests is the main issue, back-test whatever systems / strategies against Texas Lottery results along with lotteries that are less transparent. It's highly likely the results of the back-testing, given a large enough sample, will be similar, regardless.

              In the event back-testing revealed some significant discrepancy, that could be an indication of an exploitable flaw a player could take advantage of. Any lottery that intentionally attempts to skew such drawings does so at risk of some players noticing and cashing in, plus the risk of excessive draws of heavily wagered numbers, such as 123, 777, 1234, 1111, etc.

              As for your suggestion of just leaving the balls be, that would make tampering easier and more difficult to trace back to a particular suspect(s). If it turned out the balls and/or machine were fixed in some way, but was missed due to lack of testing, that could hurt players too.

              Don't fall for that BS. Yes it happened in PA a while back, but there are alternative ways to protect the machines. I've laid them out plenty of times here on LP.

              For all we know, the PA event could have been staged by the government so they could implement pre and post tests. They know very well that testing and rotating skews the outcomes with alternating patterns, making them more money. They needed a very good reason to implement them, and what better way than tampering of the balls.

              Put everything in a vault with a running video camera/s on them at all times. Simple !

                FlaEmeraldGirl's avatar - Lottery-004.jpg

                United States
                Member #148660
                November 8, 2013
                104 Posts
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                Posted: August 29, 2016, 7:32 pm - IP Logged

                Firstly, after reading your replies, I get the sense the Florida drawings work similar to that of PA. Sure the balls pop up out of order, but the chambers are in order; Pick 2 machine draws Pick 2, Pick 3 machine draws Pick 3, etc as one would normally expect. If the ordering of the chambers was different every draw that would be a huge deal, but that appears not to be the case.

                Most, if not all, U.S. lotteries do pre and/or post tests. Nothing new. And yet despite that, one may still notice patterns (ie. particular digit more than others, lots of triples, lack of doubles, repeats, mirroring, etc). Though the human mind has a tendency to seek out patterns whether real or imagined.

                As for your suggestion of just leaving the balls be, that would make tampering easier and more difficult to trace back to a particular suspect(s). If it turned out the balls and/or machine were fixed in some way, but was missed due to lack of testing, that could hurt players too.

                If the lack of transparency of pre and post tests is the main issue, back-test whatever systems / strategies against Texas Lottery results along with lotteries that are less transparent. It's highly likely the results of the back-testing, given a large enough sample, will be similar, regardless.

                In the event back-testing revealed some significant discrepancy, that could be an indication of an exploitable flaw a player could take advantage of. Any lottery that intentionally attempts to skew such drawings does so at risk of some players noticing and cashing in, plus the risk of excessive draws of heavily wagered numbers, such as 123, 777, 1234, 1111, etc.

                Quote from your reply to Amber123: "I get the sense the Florida drawings work similar to that of PA. Sure the balls pop up out of order, but the chambers are in order; Pick 2 machine draws Pick 2, Pick 3 machine draws Pick 3, etc as one would normally expect. If the ordering of the chambers was different every draw that would be a huge deal, but that appears not to be the case"

                True, but my point is this:

                The difference between FL and PA Pick drawings is the fact that for 28 years prior to the August 1st launch of the new Pick 2 and Pick 5 games, FL Cash 3 and Play 4 were drawn separately, one ball at a time, in sequential order. 1-2-3 and 1-2-3-4. This means that for 28 years, the draw order was like this:

                Old Draw Method:

                Fixed Position:       (C3) 1 2 3  (P4) 1 2 3 4
                Fixed Draw Order:  (C3) 1 2 3  (P4) 4 5 6 7 
                Winning Number:   (C3) 1 2 3  (P4) 1 2 3 4

                The draw order changed with the renaming of Cash 3 and Play 4 in concert with the launch of Pick 2 and Pick 5. I was annoyed that FL Lottery promo material stated that Cash 3 and Play 4 were "still the same as before." While the new Pick 3 and Pick 4 do play the same way, they are not drawn the same way.

                The odds remain the same 1/10 for each position. Each position still has its own fixed mixing chamber and draw tube.

                My original concern was that a computer controlled switch might be randomizing the draw order of the fixed positions in the new game, but this is not the case. Like I said earlier, per Rachel Wheeler from the Florida Lottery draw manager's office, the draw tubes are opened for all positons across multiple games at the same time. The randomization of the draw order is due to the varying time it takes the winning ball to bounce around, find the draw tube, and drop into position.

                The new Pick 2 and Pick 3 are drawn at the same time from two separate machines that have individual draw chambers for each position:

                New Draw Method:

                Fixed Position:           (P2) 1 2  (P3) 1 2 3
                Random Draw order: (P2) 5 2  (P3) 4 3 1
                Winning Number:       (P2) 1 2  (P3) 1 2 3

                The difference between the old and new draw method is time alone, not physical game structure.

                In my opinion, the main effect of the new draw method would be to interrupt whatever trends were in effect in Cash 3 and Play 4 before they became Pick 3 and Pick 4 on August 1st.

                Congrats to all winners. $$$

                Good Luck to all players. Lep

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                  Wyomissing, PA
                  United States
                  Member #161050
                  November 15, 2014
                  301 Posts
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                  Posted: August 30, 2016, 7:04 am - IP Logged

                  As for your suggestion of just leaving the balls be, that would make tampering easier and more difficult to trace back to a particular suspect(s). If it turned out the balls and/or machine were fixed in some way, but was missed due to lack of testing, that could hurt players too.

                  Don't fall for that BS. Yes it happened in PA a while back, but there are alternative ways to protect the machines. I've laid them out plenty of times here on LP.

                  For all we know, the PA event could have been staged by the government so they could implement pre and post tests. They know very well that testing and rotating skews the outcomes with alternating patterns, making them more money. They needed a very good reason to implement them, and what better way than tampering of the balls.

                  Put everything in a vault with a running video camera/s on them at all times. Simple !

                  If drawings are truly random, all the pre/post tests make no difference. Seems counter-intuitive, but that's randomness. And there's a spookiness to random numbers. For example, lotteries draw numbers in many different ways and differing times of day, and yet there are many instances in which a particular number or related variant (ie. boxed) will be drawn in multiple lotteries within a short period of time. So lets go with a different tact...

                  Compare Florida Lottery Pick 3 annual revenue verses payouts to players from the past few years. Do likewise for some other state lotteries, in particular, Texas and Pennsylvania. Is there a meaningful difference between expected take (~50%) and actual payouts? And if so, is the difference more skewed towards the house or player. If yes to both questions, maybe there's something to your theory.

                  There was a thread awhile back where expected take verses actual came up in discussion regarding PA Pick 3. It was remarkable how close the actual payout to players matched what would be statistically expected to within a fraction of a percent.

                  With the law of big numbers, there's no real need for lotteries to fix Pick-X drawings. Jackpot drawings are a different story, since many of those games start in the red, including both Mega Millions and Powerball, relying on at least one or more rollovers to fully cover the jackpot payout. Monopoly Millionaire was an extreme example, and was promptly discontinued. In my view, for anyone concerned about integrity of lottery games, focus on the jackpot ones.

                  Bottom line, if one is attempting to beat the lottery, it helps to understand statistics.

                    Nikkicute's avatar - nnjx1k
                    Wisconsin
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                    Member #123290
                    February 17, 2012
                    3052 Posts
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                    Posted: September 19, 2016, 1:22 pm - IP Logged

                    The usual payout: 5 for 1. A plus is being able to play 1 number straight, also 2 numbers boxed.

                    Play 4, win 1. Play 2, win 3.

                    They could have done this to the pick 3.

                    Straight$501 in 100
                    Box$251 in 50
                    Front Number$51 in 10
                    Back Number$51 in 10

                    1 out of 10, pays 4 to 1.

                    Roulette Française: 1 out of 37, pays 36 to 1.

                    What do they mean by front pair/back pair win for $5What?

                    There is only 2 numbers (pairs).

                      amber123's avatar - OpIFNim

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                      Posted: September 20, 2016, 3:00 pm - IP Logged

                      What do they mean by front pair/back pair win for $5What?

                      There is only 2 numbers (pairs).

                      It says front number/back number...NOT front pair or back pair.

                      If you choose the front number correctly, you win 5 bucks, same with the back number.

                        Sunglasses's avatar - nicebear
                        Zaperlopopotam
                        Belgium
                        Member #173932
                        March 26, 2016
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                        Posted: September 20, 2016, 3:46 pm - IP Logged

                        It says front number/back number...NOT front pair or back pair.

                        If you choose the front number correctly, you win 5 bucks, same with the back number.

                        Use the prediction panel for this!

                        Blue Angel

                        .
                          LottoAce's avatar - WWI Flying_Ace.gif
                          N.C.
                          United States
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                          October 28, 2007
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                          Posted: September 20, 2016, 7:00 pm - IP Logged

                          At this point I stopped caring. After all those pre and post tests, I don't care what order they pop out of, they already ruined the natural outcome with the pre and post tests, and juggling around the machines and the tubes.

                          It's futile to care because there's nothing we can do about it. All I can do is find patterns that seem to be working temporarily and bet differently when the patterns start changing.

                          I'm with you on that.

                          1) get the numbers
                          2) box the numbers
                          3) play the numbers
                          4) collect the money
                          5) try and forget the fact that
                              the officials have already
                              screwed up the natural flow
                              by manupulation.
                          6) enter losing tickets in second
                              chance drawings
                          7) good luck

                          "know your limitations, but excede your expectations"