In reciprocation here is another out of the box straightforward racing selection that doesn't promise the holy grail or magic but it's quick, simple, yielding oftentimes uncanny profitable results. No charge, no risk and very easy to back test with PP's by racing expert Professor Richard Nash
Sixth Choice
I would go crazy betting one of these mechanical money movers, but if they work for you, I think that's great. I would, however, be skeptical about the one you propose here. In my experience fooling around with the tote board, your advice tends to direct attention directly at what I consider the weakest part of the field (ie, 3d betting choice). The problem with chalk (as we talk about a lot) is that it wins often but doesn't pay enough. By the time you get to 3d choice, there is a significant drop off in win percentage, but nothing like a compensating increase in price. For the very reasons you mention (being touted by selection services and program selections) third-choice odds are often quite low and seldom very high. Which leads me to my suggestion in response to your request: If you are going to do a mechanical watch-the-odds kind of play (where all the excitement comes before the race as you watch the numbers on the board), try this one. Restrict your attention to fields of 9 or more. In those races, bet the SIXTH choice. That's it; it's simple, elegant; and based on the premise that: chalk players will divide their money between first- and second-choice, trying to get a winner; and so-called value players will be disproportionately hammering third- and fourth-choices in hopes of "beating the chalk." As a result, you can get a surprisingly high combination of value and win % looking beyond those four. And of course, you don't have to try and figure out at three minutes to post how the final betting is going to push around the odds on those 2/1, 5/2, 3/1 horses. The wrinkle here is that you are looking to bet the clear sixth choice, and sometimes two horses will be very close together at that range (either 5th and 6th or sixth and seventh). My solution: where only two are close together, bet them both; if three are right together, pass the race. Sometimes when I am bored, I check out these results. Just to give you a sample from yesterday's Equibase charts, here's what would have happened at Fairgrounds. 2 FG: two horses close together as 5th and 6th choice (10.90/1 and 10.80/1); bet 'em both: 6th choice wins, returning 23.80. 4 FG: sixth choice runs second, paying 12.40 to place (I have never checked the place payoffs on this, but I suspect it would be a better bet as win only) 5 FG: sixth choice wins, returning 19.00 (9.00 to place) 6 FG: two horses close together as 5th and 6th choice (16.10/1 and 17.90/1); bet 'em both. 5th choice runs third, sixth choice nowhere. Total on the day: 4 races, 6 bets, 2 wins, 1 place, 1 show. Win bets: $12 returns $52.80. If you like watching the odds, try looking at this one.
I'd urge you to extend your analysis at least as far as number 6; you may be right about 85% of all winners coming from the top 5, but there are some tremendous underlays in that 85%. By the same token, you are likely to find nice value in the sixth spot. A few years ago (before I discovered the internet), I devoted one Keeneland spring meeting to the simplest odds system in the world: sixth choice to win, every time, and had a remarkably profitable meet. The difference in win % between 3d choice and 6th choice is not great, but the difference in average price is remarkable.
You should only be looking at fields with 9 or more starters. And, of course, you have to give it some time and accept a relatively low win percentage. If you get an average price of 12/1 (not unlikely in the range we are talking about), you only need to cash 3 of 39 to break even. Yesterday may have been a losing day (I don't know), but I doubt that it was very bad if it produced three winners.
Interestingly I did find an old study (1982) by Asch, Malkil and Quandt that shows that the 6th choice is underbet and wins slightly more often than its odds indicate.
L@@K even if the 6 th place horse is not producing a + R.O.I in the win position, this maybe an idea who play "vertical exotics" a consideration
This "6 th choice" would certainly magnify payouts if it's also hitting the second and third tiers of exactas and trifectas more often than the odds would indicate.
You should chart at least 15 pre- plays
~Prof Richard Nash
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CU in the Winner's Circle
EddessaKnight with Luckt Light
Nota Bene:
I finally found a way to beat the first six races, by arriving for the 7th LOL