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Are you playing Mega Millions with the $5.00 per play?Prev TopicNext Topic
Are you playing Mega Millions with the $5.00 per play?
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We went back and looked at both Powerball & Mega Millions during the period of when they both had starting jackpots of $20 Million and $2.00 per Line.
In addition, we correctly scaled the time frames by which each performs their draws on a weekly interval.
Below is Powerball's $20M / $2.00 run and we can see it breaks the Billion Dollar Barrier on average in its 13th week of draws.
Below is Mega Millions' previous $20M / $2.00 run and we can see it breaks the Billion Dollar Barrier on average in its 15th week of draws.
Below is the current Mega Millions run of $50M / $5.00 and we can see it is struggling to break the Billion Dollar Barrier.
We can compare the Average Regressions on a weekly scale and see the difference between all three events.
We added a projection to see at about its 18th week, Mega Millions might break the Billion Dollar Barrier, if it's not won by then.
In its previous $20M / $2.00 run, Mega Millions would be well beyond a Billion; likely close to $1.7 to $1.8 Billion.
Since we did a regression and projection back on 2025-10-13, the projections to $1 Billion Dollar Barrier kept being pushed out to later weeks.
The One Over None
I Know... -
The One Over None
I Know... -
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While the revenue is being talked about and consideration is being given to what percent is being generated at a certain dollar value, people are also not including the starting point of $50 Million which, IMHO, is another bells and whistles gimmick in this new & improved MM version from MUSL. Starting at $50M already puts you up 2+ draws on any previous jackpot, whether its the MM or the PB in the last decade plus.
https://www.texaslottery.com/export/sites/lottery/Games/Mega_Millions/Estimated_Jackpot.html
https://www.texaslottery.com/export/sites/lottery/Games/Powerball/Estimated_Jackpot.html
With 37 rollovers being on the books, you actually are, in all reality, at 39/borderline 40 rollovers, They just skip the first 2-3 draws and include them in the new starting point . We all know how this run, with the $5 entry fee started. 10 consecutive rollovers of $10 Million dollars.
IMHO, what the MUSL did to a good game, that worked well for ALL PLAYERS and gave us an alternative choice to the PB, was completely asinine.
Since the first doubling of the price from $1 to $2 back around Oct 2017 to the newest increase to $5 earlier in 2025, what have you gotten for the 500% increase in price participation in 7 1/2 years ?? Some better odds? Yeah, somewhat. Better dollar lower tear prizes? Yeah, I can agree with that.
BUT MUSL, here is what you did that just irks me enough to give you the middle finger about being a participant until it gets into the "Stupid $$ Range".
You forced the multiplier on us, whether we choose to purchase it or not.
Your recent increase of another 150% was completely unnecessary for bigger jackpots.
We, the players, ARE NOT getting, "Faster-growing jackpots and bigger jackpots more frequently – Jackpots are expected to grow faster and get to higher dollar amounts more frequently in the new game. The Mega Millions Consortium estimates that the average jackpot win in the new game will be more than $800 million vs. approximately $450 million in the current game. https://www.megamillions.com/News/2025/New-Mega-Millions%C2%AE-arrives-in-April. asp
Taking over 38 draws/starting the 5th month to get to your "higher dollar amounts more frequently" is not what is happening at all.
The recent statement from a lottery official," However, Montana Lottery Sales and Marketing Director Anne Charpentier pointed out some concerns over the game's $5 price point after drawing attention to Mega Millions sales data since the multi-state game's ticket price increased from $2 to $5. Montana Lottery officials compared ticket sales 157 days before and after the game change and found that, prior to the price hike, the game sold a total of 1,543,740 tickets in the state. In the 157 days following the ticket cost increase, the game only sold 600,850 tickets in Montana, a 61% change. The difference translated to a staggering 23% loss in average daily revenue, from about $25 million down to $19 million. Mega Millions jackpots have also been growing much slower as a result of slowed national sales levels, with the average jackpot growth per day down 45% from about $8 million to $4.4 million. "With regard to what we know how Mega Millions is performing, and that move from a $2 to a $5 price point, we are going to be taking a really close look at how we message that, how that is provided to the player and the sales agents," Charpentier concluded. https://www.lotterypost.com/news/356477
Even our small polls on here point to almost 60% of not playing. Still think $5 is worth it ?? Only if you win
The tug and pull between the PB & the MM was enjoyable. A big jackpot was won on the PB, "Okay, hey, the MM is starting to climb up, let's play that" or vice versa. Not any longer
Your 500% price increase(since 10/17) has just eliminated the enjoyment of playing a game that was reasonably affordable to ALL PLAYERS. That old adage of a"Dollar and a dream" is long since dissapeared. Even $2 was acceptable for throwing a shot at $10's/$100's of millions. It was fun to talk about the "what if" factor, possibly starting a pool with friends, family or coworkers when jackpots got larger. I Don't even give it a thought anymore unless its just the Powerball. Going from $2 to $5 just shot that all to h*ll for this former regular participant and many other folks as well.
Going from a price charge of this
and charging the price of this 
AIN'T MAKIN' IT.Will the new $5 price tag become acceptable and change minds ??? I honestly do not know. But it won't for me. That is a promise you can bank on !
Just my 2 pennies..Please forgive me for sputtering so long...Good luck to all that are participating in Fridays draw.
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Smart lottery winners form trust to claim their winnings. They send an attorney to the lottery headquarters to claim the prize in trust, so that ONLY the name of the trust is revealed. And they tell NO ONE, especially relatives.
If you ever win a lottery and you are single, the only person you should ever marry is someone who was truly in love with you BEFORE you won the jackpot!
People can talk about strategies and gimmicks all they want, but unless your ticket actually matches at least 5 of those 6 balls, you are just another person who tried to win a game yet ultimately failed.
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* In hot pursuit of $ *White Shores- California
United States
Member #136,469
December 12, 2012
7,260 Posts
Offline* Voice of Reason *
* People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it- George Bernard Shaw.
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The One Over None
I Know... -
Zeta Reticuli Star System
United States
Member #30,469
January 17, 2006
12,515 Posts
OfflineThose who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any. So many systems, so many theories, so few jackpot winners.
There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.
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Al Bundy Member #254,954
NO MA'AM -
Zeta Reticuli Star System
United States
Member #30,469
January 17, 2006
12,515 Posts
OfflineThose who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any. So many systems, so many theories, so few jackpot winners.
There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.
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1003173.6561.210.2110.85United States
Member #66,355
October 23, 2008
14,856 Posts
Offline" Good Luck !!!!! > Insure 5/0's "
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Smart lottery winners form trust to claim their winnings. They send an attorney to the lottery headquarters to claim the prize in trust, so that ONLY the name of the trust is revealed. And they tell NO ONE, especially relatives.
If you ever win a lottery and you are single, the only person you should ever marry is someone who was truly in love with you BEFORE you won the jackpot!
People can talk about strategies and gimmicks all they want, but unless your ticket actually matches at least 5 of those 6 balls, you are just another person who tried to win a game yet ultimately failed.
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Exactly ! The MM for me becomes a buy in at $500M Cash Value. The PB buy in point is at $200 - $250M Cash Value. Last MM purchase was 12/26/24. Last PB purchase was 9/05/25. Might have to be a participant for tomorrows draw.
Good Luck to all participants in both upcoming draws.
Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.
